新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-24 盘面振幅放大，需关注交易风险 工业硅： 市场分析 2025-07-23，工业硅期货价格大幅上涨后回落，主力合约2509开于9810元/吨，最后收于9525元/吨，较前一日结算 变化（55）元/吨，变化（0.58）%。截止收盘，2509主力合约持仓334776手，2025-07-23仓单总数为50106手，较 前一日变化53手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格上涨。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在9900-10100（300）元/吨；421#硅在10100-10400 （300）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格9400-9600（400）元/吨，99硅价格在9400-9500（400）元/吨，现货价格继续上调。 消费端：据SMM统计，有机硅DMC报价11600-12500（0）元/吨。据SMM了解，今日国内山东淄博地区前期事故 单体企业80万吨单体产能全部进入停车，此次停车时长不定，国内供应减量加剧。 策略 焦煤价格继续上涨，反内卷政策等仍有一定扰动，导致期货情绪仍偏强，短期盘面或仍偏强运行。后续需关注盘 面上涨后西南开工变化及西北复产情况，若反弹较多，可择机卖出套保。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The launch of aluminum alloy futures marks a significant development in China's metal futures market, with the first contract being the 2511 contract, and the market sentiment is cautious due to seasonal consumption factors and price differentials [1][4]. Industry Overview - The aluminum alloy futures market is structured from scrap aluminum to casting aluminum alloy, then to die-cast parts, with the transportation sector being the largest consumer [1]. - The primary delivery standard for the futures is ADC12, which is currently in a consumption off-season, leading to a significant price discount compared to A00 aluminum [1]. Market Dynamics - The current market sentiment is cautious, influenced by the seasonal demand and the price disparity between different quoting platforms, with Jiangxi Baotai generally offering lower prices compared to Shanghai Steel Union and Shanghai Nonferrous [2]. - The market is divided into two categories: high-quality aluminum water for mainframe manufacturers and lower-quality alloy ingots for secondary suppliers, affecting the delivery dynamics [2][3]. Supply and Demand Analysis - The second quarter is characterized as a consumption off-season, with limited support for aluminum prices due to low demand and high production capacity [4]. - Despite an overall surplus in aluminum alloy production, the actual circulation of alloy ingots is minimal, resulting in low social inventory levels of 10,000 to 20,000 tons, providing some support for prices [4]. Price Expectations - The expected price range for the first trading day of aluminum alloy futures is between 19,000 and 19,800 yuan per ton, with various factors influencing both the upper and lower limits of this range [5]. - The upper limit is based on recent pricing from Jiangxi Baotai and includes additional costs, while the lower limit considers historical cost and price differentials [5]. Trading Strategies - The initial trading strategy suggests a focus on short to medium-term trading, with a recommendation for competitive buying due to the low listing price, while also being cautious of potential price corrections [6]. - Additional strategies include considering options for hedging and potential arbitrage opportunities due to expected seasonal price peaks and price differentials between ADC12 and A00 [7].