文 | 快刀财经 朱末 "经常用脑，多喝六个核桃。"谁不曾被这句火遍大江南北的魔性广告洗过耳朵。 另据养元饮品2025年半年报显示，其上半年实现营业收入24.65亿，同比下降16.19%；实现归母净利润7.44亿，同比下降27.76%，首次出现营收与 净利润双双下滑的局面。令人担忧的是，养元饮品在华东、华中、华北、西南、西北、东北、华南七个大区的销售收入全线下滑。 靠着"补脑"这一中式养生概念，"六个核桃"背后的养元饮品不但从破产边缘咸鱼翻身，迅速成为过节送礼的"硬通货"，还一举坐上了"植物蛋白饮 料大王"的宝座，销售增长近千倍，成为中国饮料史上继红罐凉茶后的另一个蓝罐饮料传奇，更推动植物蛋白饮料这一老而小的品类朝主流饮料品 类强势逆袭，成长为具有超百亿市场的大品类。 | | | | 单位: 万元 币种:人民币 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 区域名称 | 2025年1-6月 销售收入 | 2024年1-6月 销售收入 | 增减变动幅度(%) | | 华东地区 | 69. 198. 46 | 89, 117. 41 | -22. 35 | | 束中地区 | 62, 353. 18 ...

Core Viewpoint - Dongwu Securities believes that Yangyuan Beverage (603156) is expected to regain growth during the Spring Festival season in 2026, maintaining a "buy" rating [1]. Group 1: Institutional View - The Spring Festival's later timing is expected to extend the sales period, leading to a strong start in the first quarter [2]. - The company is leveraging its walnut milk channel to introduce Red Bull's energy drink, which is anticipated to grow faster than the soft drink sector, potentially enhancing channel profits and revenue [2]. - External investments are focused on the technology sector, with some projects having IPO expectations, combined with a high dividend strategy that provides a safety margin [2]. Group 2: Stock Performance - Over the past week, Yangyuan Beverage's stock price has fluctuated, with a cumulative decline of 0.16% and a volatility of 2.99% [3]. - The financing balance remains high, indicating active trading in recent times, with a net inflow of 3.897 million yuan on February 11, closing at 30.35 yuan, reflecting a daily increase of 0.46% [3].

Macro Strategy - The core viewpoint indicates that January's CPI was lower than expected due to the Spring Festival's timing, but the overall trend of rising prices remains unchanged, with CPI and PPI both showing signs of recovery [1][10][11] - CPI in January increased by 0.2% month-on-month and year-on-year, while PPI rose by 0.4% month-on-month but fell by 1.4% year-on-year, aligning with market expectations [1][10] - Looking ahead, CPI is expected to rise above 1% starting in February, and PPI may turn positive around June to July, indicating a more optimistic outlook for 2026 [1][10][11] Fixed Income Report - The report emphasizes the importance of a diversified financing system for supporting technology companies, particularly those in rapid growth and significant technology investment phases [2][12] - It highlights the potential for private technology companies in China to utilize the bond market for financing, as the current bond market is heavily concentrated on state-owned enterprises [2][12] - The focus is on the AI industry, which is experiencing unprecedented investment and R&D spending, making debt financing a critical tool for leading companies to balance cash flow and support strategic expansion [2][12] Company Analysis Xinzhou Bang (300037) - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 9.64 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 22.8%, and a net profit of 1.1 billion yuan, reflecting a 16.6% increase [5][15] - The price increase of hexafluoropropylene and VC is expected to contribute significantly to profit recovery, with a projected net profit of 2.4 billion yuan in 2026 [5][15] - The target price for 2026 is set at 79.8 yuan, maintaining a "buy" rating based on expected profit growth [5][15] Jiufang Zhitu Holdings (09636.HK) - The company anticipates a revenue of approximately 3.43 billion yuan for 2025, with a net profit forecast of 1 billion to 1.03 billion yuan, significantly higher than the previous year [6][17] - Despite regulatory challenges, the company is expected to maintain strong customer retention and growth in overseas business, supporting a "buy" rating [6][17] Huichuan Technology (300124) - The company forecasts a revenue of 42.97 to 46.67 billion yuan for 2025, with a net profit of 4.97 to 5.4 billion yuan, indicating a year-on-year growth of 16% to 26% [7][17] - The demand for industrial control is recovering, and strategic investments in robotics and digital energy are expected to enhance profitability [7][17] - The target price for 2026 is set at 94.1 yuan, maintaining a "buy" rating based on anticipated growth in various sectors [7][17] Yangyuan Beverage (603156) - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 5.281 billion yuan in 2025, with a projected net profit of 1.322 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 23.3% [9][17] - The company is focusing on technology investments that may lead to an IPO exit, providing a safety margin through high dividends [9][17]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that Yangyuan Beverage has resumed growth at the beginning of 2026 and is expected to benefit from external investments [1] - The company obtained exclusive distribution rights for the Red Bull Energy Drink series in northern China in 2020, with the energy drink market in China projected to grow from 28.79 billion yuan in 2015 to 62.06 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a CAGR of nearly 9%, significantly higher than the 4% growth of soft drinks during the same period [1] - The company leverages its mature walnut milk distribution channels to introduce energy drinks, which enhances channel profitability and stickiness, contributing to revenue growth [1] Group 2 - The walnut milk product has strong gift-giving attributes, and the company is expected to transition from a small year to a big year during the Spring Festival in 2026, with a promising start in Q1 and an overall expectation of regaining growth for the year [1] - The company's external investments are focused on technology sectors, with potential for IPO exits under the current technological wave, which could yield good returns, while the company also offers high dividends providing a certain safety margin [1] - The rating for the company is maintained at "Buy" [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [1] Core Viewpoints - The company is expected to regain growth in 2026, with a significant increase in the stocking period leading up to the Spring Festival, which falls on February 16, 2026, 19 days later than in 2025. This extended peak season is anticipated to positively impact Q1 performance [2][14] - The company holds a leading position in the walnut milk segment of the plant-based protein beverage market, which is projected to stabilize between 35 billion to 40 billion RMB from 2021 to 2024. The "Six Walnuts" product is expected to drive revenue growth in this category [2][25] - The collaboration with Red Bull is expected to enhance the company's energy drink segment, which has shown robust growth potential, with the energy drink market projected to grow from 28.79 billion RMB in 2015 to 62.06 billion RMB in 2024, reflecting a CAGR of nearly 9% [2][19] - The company's external investments in technology sectors, including semiconductors and artificial intelligence, are expected to yield significant returns, particularly with the anticipated IPO of Longjiang Storage [2][33] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company’s revenue is projected to be 5.281 billion RMB in 2025, 5.678 billion RMB in 2026, and 6.080 billion RMB in 2027, with year-on-year changes of -12.8%, +7.5%, and +7.1% respectively. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 1.322 billion RMB in 2025, 1.471 billion RMB in 2026, and 1.590 billion RMB in 2027, with year-on-year changes of -23.3%, +11.3%, and +8.1% respectively [1][49] - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 1.05 RMB in 2025, 1.17 RMB in 2026, and 1.26 RMB in 2027, with corresponding P/E ratios of 28.81, 25.88, and 23.94 [1][49] Business Segmentation - The walnut milk segment is expected to generate 4.492 billion RMB in revenue in 2025, with a year-on-year decline of 16.4%. The functional beverage segment is projected to grow by 16.2% in 2025, reaching 754 million RMB [49] - The company’s revenue distribution across regions shows a balanced approach, with East China contributing 32.4%, Central China 23.4%, and North China 20.8% in 2024 [19] Investment Strategy - The company has invested in various technology sectors through its 99.90% stake in Wuhu Wenming Qianhong Investment Management Partnership, focusing on diversified technology industries [2][33] - The company holds stakes in several technology firms, including 0.98% in Longjiang Storage and 11.90% in Jixin Communications, which are expected to contribute to future growth [35][36] Dividend Policy - The company maintains a high dividend payout ratio, with a 100% dividend rate in 2024, supported by stable cash flow from its core walnut milk business [43][46]

Core Viewpoint - The recent award of the second prize in the China Food Industry Association Science and Technology Award to Hebei Yangyuan Zhihui Beverage Co., Ltd. (referred to as "Six Walnuts") and Hengshui College for their project on "Key Technologies and Applications of Walnut Milk Processing" highlights the company's commitment to technological innovation and its leading position in the walnut deep processing industry [1][3][8] Group 1: Technological Innovation and Achievements - Six Walnuts has established itself as a pioneer and benchmark in the walnut beverage industry, consistently prioritizing technological innovation as a core driver of its development [3][4] - The company has created seven innovation platforms, including the "Key Laboratory of Walnut Beverage in China's Light Industry" and a postdoctoral research workstation, fostering a deep integration of industry, academia, and research [3][4] - Significant technological breakthroughs include the 2005 introduction of the "5·3·28" process, which improved the yield of walnut kernels, and the 2018 "Whole Walnut CET Cold Brew Process," which enhanced nutrient utilization to 97% while preserving taste [4][6] Group 2: Industry Leadership and Quality Control - The award signifies a milestone in Six Walnuts' "Technology-Driven Enterprise" strategy, as the company expands the scientific boundaries of walnut nutrition and health value [8] - The company has established walnut bases in key production areas and implemented a strict "3·6·36" procurement standard to ensure precise control over raw material quality [6] - Collaborating with research teams, Six Walnuts has addressed various technical challenges, including walnut bitterness and emulsion stability, leading to the development of high-end functional products [6][8]

近日，河北省科学技术厅公布2025年度科学技术奖评审结果，由河北养元智汇饮品股份有限公司（以下简称"六个核桃"）联合北京工商大学、中国林业科学 研究院林业研究所、衡水学院共同完成的《高品质核桃乳加工关键技术创新与产业化》项目，凭借突出的技术创新优势和显著的产业应用成效，荣获河北省 科学技术进步奖一等奖。此次获奖不仅是对企业持续创新的高度认可，更标志着我国核桃深加工产业在关键核心技术上取得重大突破。 FIN' 品质 全核桃CET冷萃技术, 科研人员通过独创的靶向脱离 有效去除核桃仁种皮的書涩物 完整保留了核桃的营养,□感 研发中心 下板桃 "5·3·28"生产工艺是六个核桃技术体系的重要基础。这项工艺于2005年问世，融合了5项专利、3项关键技术及28道生产流程，有效解决了传统核桃乳普遍存 在的口感难题。该技术去除了核桃乳的涩味与腻感，使产品从市场的小众选择转变为广受喜爱的大众饮品。 全核桃CET冷萃工艺则是六个核桃的重大创新。这项基于靶向技术的创新工艺，能够精准去除核桃仁种皮中的苦涩物质，最大化保留了核桃的原始风味与营 养精华。根据研究数据，通过CET冷萃工艺处理后的核桃乳，其营养吸收率可提升至超过97%，创 ...

Group 1: Canned Food Industry - The State Administration for Market Regulation has released draft recommendations for national standards for canned food to enhance industry standards and applicability [3] - The canned food industry in China is diverse but lacks innovation, particularly in attracting younger consumers, with Fujian province accounting for 36% of national production [3][4] - The industry is upgrading through the development of self-heating foods, high-end products like bird's nest canned food, and customized dining products [3][4] Group 2: New Beverage Trends - The sugar water shop has become a new franchise trend, with brands like Mai Ji Milk and Zhao Ji Chuan Cheng rapidly expanding, but facing challenges such as high costs and low-frequency consumption [5] - The Chinese herbal health water market is experiencing a sales surge due to hot weather, with products like red bean and coix seed water gaining popularity, potentially exceeding a market size of 10 billion yuan [6] - The beverage market is accelerating its health trend, with low-sugar and no-sugar products becoming standard, while traditional giants face declining sales [7] Group 3: Functional and Innovative Products - Vitamin drinks are gaining popularity among young consumers for their health benefits, with sales of Nongfu Spring's water-soluble C100 increasing by 34% year-on-year [9] - The rise of banana-flavored drinks from major brands reflects a growing market potential, leveraging high national recognition and health trends [10] - The global nutrition and health industry is set for a peak in raw material innovation and technological iteration by 2025, with a focus on standardized and stable ingredients [11] Group 4: Market Dynamics and Brand Strategies - The "medicinal food" trend is becoming a significant market, with a projected scale of 370 billion yuan, driven by policy support and technological advancements [12] - The rise of Chinese herbal health water reflects a shift in consumer behavior towards health-conscious products, but the industry faces challenges like exaggerated claims and quality control [14] - The dairy industry is shifting focus from consumer markets to B2B markets, driven by the growth of new consumption formats like tea and coffee [15] Group 5: Brand Developments and Challenges - The beverage brand Commune is preparing for an IPO, aiming to expand its presence while facing challenges like declining same-store sales and rising costs [24] - The acquisition of the beverage brand Dayao by KKR marks a shift towards capitalizing on efficiency over emotional branding, as the brand faces challenges in national expansion [25] - Dongpeng's coffee brand has achieved a market share of 14%, positioning itself among the top three in the ready-to-drink coffee market through a focus on quality and targeted marketing [26]

2月2日，养元饮品跌5.78%，成交额3.58亿元。两融数据显示，当日养元饮品获融资买入额2184.16万 元，融资偿还1797.72万元，融资净买入386.44万元。截至2月2日，养元饮品融资融券余额合计3.20亿 元。 融资方面，养元饮品当日融资买入2184.16万元。当前融资余额3.13亿元，占流通市值的0.83%，融资余 额超过近一年90%分位水平，处于高位。 融券方面，养元饮品2月2日融券偿还4100.00股，融券卖出500.00股，按当日收盘价计算，卖出金额1.49 万元；融券余量20.93万股，融券余额624.55万元，超过近一年70%分位水平，处于较高位。 截至9月30日，养元饮品股东户数3.28万，较上期增加86.19%；人均流通股38466股，较上期减少 46.29%。2025年1月-9月，养元饮品实现营业收入39.05亿元，同比减少7.64%；归母净利润11.19亿元， 同比减少8.95%。 分红方面，养元饮品A股上市后累计派现164.62亿元。近三年，累计派现66.45亿元。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文基于第三方数据库自动发布，不代表新浪财经观点，任何在本文 出现的信息均只作为 ...

2月2日，养元饮品跌5.08%，截至发稿，报30.06元/股，成交2.42亿元，换手率0.62%，总市值378.84亿 元。 资料显示，河北养元智汇饮品股份有限公司位于河北省衡水市经济开发区北区新区六路南,滏阳四路以 西，成立日期1997年9月24日，上市日期2018年2月12日，公司主营业务涉及核桃仁为原料的植物蛋白饮 料的研发、生产和销售。 长信易进混合A（003126）成立日期2016年12月23日，最新规模1465.34万。今年以来收益0.89%，同类 排名7773/9000；近一年收益6.8%，同类排名6981/8193；成立以来收益39.16%。 长信易进混合A（003126）基金经理为冯彬。 截至发稿，冯彬累计任职时间13年85天，现任基金资产总规模72.22亿元，任职期间最佳基金回报 40.4%， 任职期间最差基金回报0.48%。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 本文基于第三方数据库自动发布，不代表新浪财经观点，任何在本 文出现的信息均只作为参考，不构成个人投资建议。如有出入请以实际公告为准。如有疑问，请联系 biz@staff.sina.com.cn。 责任编辑：小浪快报 从基金十大重仓股角 ...