Core Viewpoint - The recent investment of 1.6 billion yuan by Yangyuan Beverage in Changjiang Storage Technology Holdings represents 93% of the company's projected net profit for 2024, indicating a strategic shift towards the semiconductor industry and a commitment to diversifying its business model [2][10][15]. Investment Details - Yangyuan Beverage's subsidiary, Quan Hong Investment, has completed a cash investment of 1.6 billion yuan, acquiring a 0.99% stake in Changjiang Storage, which values the company at over 160 billion yuan [3][9]. - The investment is part of Yangyuan's strategy to explore equity investment as a business operation model, aiming to enhance its investment capabilities and secure shareholder interests [5][15]. - The investment was initially kept confidential for 17 months due to commercial secrecy concerns, highlighting the strategic nature of the deal [5][6]. Changjiang Storage Overview - Changjiang Storage, established in 2016, is a leading player in the domestic storage chip industry, being the only supplier in China to commercialize 3D NAND technology [3][6]. - The company has a diverse product range, including 3D NAND flash memory and embedded storage chips, with applications across various sectors such as mobile communication and data centers [6][10]. Financial Performance - As of September 2024, Changjiang Storage reported a net asset value of 134.736 billion yuan and a net profit of 531 million yuan for 2023, although it faced a loss of 84.21 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2024 due to industry fluctuations [9][10]. - The recent investment by Yangyuan Beverage is significant, as it represents a substantial portion of the company's projected net profit for 2024, indicating a bold move into the semiconductor sector [10][15]. Market Trends - The semiconductor industry is experiencing increased investment activity, with approximately 50 listed companies in China announcing major asset restructuring or investment plans in this sector by December 2024 [17][19]. - The demand for semiconductor products is rising due to advancements in AI, IoT, and 5G technologies, making this sector attractive for cross-industry investments [19]. Investment Challenges - Despite the potential benefits, the semiconductor industry poses challenges such as high technical barriers, rapid technological changes, and significant capital requirements, which could impact the financial stability of companies engaging in cross-industry mergers and acquisitions [19].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the recovery of domestic demand, suggesting a more optimistic outlook for investment opportunities in the food and beverage sector, with potential for a dual boost in fundamentals and valuations in the second half of the year [1] - The major consumption ETF has shown a year-to-date maximum drawdown of 5.57%, indicating some volatility, but it has also outperformed its benchmark with a one-year annualized excess return of 2.18% [2] - The latest price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) for the major consumption index is 19.84, which is considered low compared to historical levels, indicating potential undervaluation [2] Group 2 - The top ten weighted stocks in the major consumption index account for 67.16% of the index, highlighting the concentration of investment in a few key players [3] - The performance of individual stocks within the index shows mixed results, with notable increases in stocks like Hai Tian Wei Ye (3.06%) and declines in others like Dong Peng Beverage (-0.89%) [5] - The report indicates that the liquor industry is entering a bottoming phase, with expectations for recovery as companies manage inventory more effectively in the latter half of the year [1]

Core Viewpoint - Yangyuan Beverage is attempting to refresh its public perception through a significant investment in Changjiang Storage Technology, indicating a strategic shift towards the semiconductor industry [1][2][10]. Investment Details - Yangyuan Beverage's subsidiary, Quan Hong Investment, has invested 1.6 billion yuan in Changjiang Storage, acquiring a 0.99% stake, valuing Changjiang Storage at approximately 161.6 billion yuan [2][3]. - The investment represents over 90% of Yangyuan Beverage's projected net profit for 2024, highlighting the scale of this cross-industry investment [2][6][10]. Company Background - Yangyuan Beverage, known for its walnut beverage "Six Walnuts," has faced declining revenues and profits since 2016, prompting the need for diversification [9][10]. - The company has a history of investments through its subsidiary, Quan Hong Investment, which has engaged in various sectors, although past investments have not yielded expected high returns [7][9]. Changjiang Storage Overview - Changjiang Storage, established in 2016, is a leading player in the domestic storage chip industry, being the only supplier to commercialize 3D NAND technology in China [2][4]. - The company has a diversified business model, including chip design, manufacturing, and solutions, and has seen its net assets reach 134.736 billion yuan as of September 2024 [5][4]. Market Context - The semiconductor industry is experiencing increased investment activity, with many companies entering the sector through mergers and acquisitions, driven by favorable policies and the growing demand for semiconductor products [11][12]. - The investment by Yangyuan Beverage aligns with a broader trend of companies diversifying into the semiconductor space, which is seen as a sector with significant growth potential [11][12].

Core Viewpoint - Yangyuan Beverage (603156.SH) reported a decline in revenue but an increase in net profit for 2024, indicating a "profit without revenue growth" scenario. The company is facing challenges in its core walnut milk product market, prompting it to seek growth through cross-industry investments [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Yangyuan Beverage achieved revenue of 6.058 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.69%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.722 billion yuan, an increase of 17.35% [1]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw a significant decline in revenue across all regions, with an overall drop of 20.44%, and revenue and net profit down 19.7% and 26.95% year-on-year, respectively [1][2]. - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company experienced a dual decline in performance, with revenue and net profit decreasing by 7.81% and 4.69%, respectively [2]. Product Performance - The walnut milk product, represented by "Six Walnuts," saw a sales volume decline of 4.71% to 571,663.84 tons, and revenue decreased by 5.86% to 5.373 billion yuan, marking three consecutive years of revenue failing to exceed 6 billion yuan [2][3]. - Despite a significant increase in inventory by 33% due to pre-Spring Festival stocking, the core product's performance remains under pressure [2]. Regional Performance - The company’s revenue from offline distribution channels decreased by 2.99% to 5.729 billion yuan, with only the Northeast and Northwest regions showing positive growth [3][5]. - In the first quarter of 2025, revenue from the distribution model plummeted by 22.55% to 1.644 billion yuan, with all seven major regions reporting declines [3]. Investment Strategy - Yangyuan Beverage is attempting to find new growth avenues through cross-industry investments, recently announcing a 1.6 billion yuan investment in Changjiang Storage Technology Holding Co., acquiring a 0.99% stake [1][6]. - The company has a history of significant investments, with annual long-term equity investments exceeding 1 billion yuan from 2017 to 2022, but these investments have not yielded expected returns, leading to consecutive years of investment losses [6][7]. - The company’s investment in private equity funds has been particularly problematic, with substantial losses reported in recent years, raising concerns about the sustainability of its investment strategy [6][7].

Core Insights - The plant protein beverage market is experiencing intensified competition, leading to a "stronger differentiation" pattern among major companies [1][6] - Traditional plant protein beverages are facing challenges due to low daily consumption penetration and significant seasonal sales fluctuations [1][6] Company Performance - Yangyuan Beverage reported a revenue of approximately 6.058 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.69% year-on-year, but a net profit of about 1.722 billion yuan, an increase of 17.35% [3][4] - Weiweijia's revenue was approximately 3.656 billion yuan, down 9.4% year-on-year, while net profit increased by 96.26% to about 411 million yuan [3][4] - Chengde Lulux achieved a revenue of approximately 3.287 billion yuan, an increase of 11.26%, with a net profit of about 666 million yuan, up 4.41% [3][4] - Huanlejia's revenue was approximately 1.855 billion yuan, down 3.53%, and net profit decreased by 47.06% to about 147 million yuan [3][5] Market Trends - The plant protein beverage industry has seen significant growth, with market size reaching 142.8 billion yuan in 2023, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 9.8% [6][9] - The market is characterized by a concentration of major players, with the top five companies holding only 58% of the market share, indicating structural opportunities [8][9] - There is a growing demand for healthier products with low sugar, high fiber, and organic certifications, which presents growth potential for the industry [9] Competitive Landscape - The industry is witnessing increased competition from new entrants and product homogeneity, necessitating diversified strategies for differentiation [8][9] - Major companies like Yangyuan Beverage and Chengde Lulux maintain significant market shares due to their established brands and distribution channels [8][9] - Analysts emphasize the importance of functional and refined operations to adapt to changing consumer preferences and market dynamics [6][9]

Core Viewpoint - The investment by Yangyuan Beverage in Changjiang Storage Technology Holding Co., amounting to 1.6 billion yuan, has drawn attention from investors, indicating a shift from its core business of walnut milk to cross-industry investments as a means to seek new growth opportunities [1][2][10]. Group 1: Investment Details - Yangyuan Beverage's investment in Changjiang Storage represents 90% of its net profit for the previous year, highlighting the significant financial commitment involved [2][10]. - The investment aims to explore a new business model through equity investment, suggesting a strategic pivot from traditional manufacturing to investment [11][14]. - The investment in Changjiang Storage is part of a broader trend where Yangyuan has engaged in various cross-industry investments, including real estate and technology sectors, over recent years [14][15]. Group 2: Company Background and Performance - Yangyuan Beverage, known for its walnut milk product "Six Walnuts," has seen a decline in revenue and profit since its peak in 2015, with 2024 projected revenue at 6.058 billion yuan, down one-third from its peak [22][25]. - The company has struggled with product innovation, relying heavily on its walnut milk, which has led to stagnation in growth [22][25]. - Despite attempts to diversify its product offerings, new products have not significantly contributed to revenue, with functional beverages accounting for only 10% of total revenue [25][26]. Group 3: Industry Context - Changjiang Storage is recognized as the largest storage chip enterprise in China, with significant potential for growth if it goes public [6][7]. - The semiconductor industry, where Changjiang Storage operates, is capital-intensive and currently undergoing cyclical adjustments, which may impact profitability [7][10]. - Yangyuan's investment strategy reflects a broader trend in the beverage industry, where companies are increasingly looking to diversify and invest in high-growth sectors to offset stagnation in traditional markets [14][27].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market shows a slight decline with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3294.02 points, below the five-day moving average, indicating a market correction trend [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - The total trading volume of A-shares reached 7286.82 billion yuan today [1]. - The Shanghai Composite Index experienced a change of -0.03% [1]. Group 2: Stocks Exceeding Five-Day Moving Average - A total of 293 A-shares have surpassed the five-day moving average today [1]. - Notable stocks with significant deviation rates include: - Xinjin Power (300157) with a deviation rate of 13.12% and a daily increase of 19.92% [2]. - Yintu Network (835508) with a deviation rate of 10.41% and a daily increase of 13.08% [2]. - Lechuang Technology (430425) with a deviation rate of 7.81% and a daily increase of 11.04% [2]. - Other stocks with smaller deviation rates that just crossed the five-day moving average include: - InSai Group, Dongpeng Beverage, and Zhongke Magnetic [1].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Add" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's revenue for 2024 is expected to be 60.58 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.69%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 17.22 billion yuan, an increase of 17.35% [6] - The fourth quarter of 2024 is anticipated to show a revenue of 18.29 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.14%, with a net profit of 4.93 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 177.02% [6] - The company maintains a high cash dividend payout ratio of approximately 100%, with total cash dividends and buybacks amounting to 18.22 billion yuan, indicating a strong commitment to shareholder returns [6] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the total revenue is projected at 60.58 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of -1.69% [6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 is expected to be 17.22 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 17.35% [6] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at 1.37 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 17.46 [1][6] - The gross profit margin for 2024 is expected to be 46.53%, a slight increase of 0.82 percentage points year-on-year [6] - The company’s cash flow from operating activities for 2024 is projected to be 1,431 million yuan [12] Revenue Breakdown - The revenue from walnut milk for 2024 is estimated at 53.43 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.86% year-on-year, while functional beverages are expected to generate 6.5 billion yuan, an increase of 45.02% [6] - The first quarter of 2025 is projected to show a revenue of 18.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.7% [6] Future Outlook - The net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised down to 13.56 billion yuan and 13.93 billion yuan, respectively, with a new estimate for 2027 at 15.05 billion yuan [6] - The company is expected to stabilize and recover its revenue in the future as the market environment improves [6]

文/梧桐晓编 4月25日晚上，核心产品为"六个核桃"的河北养元智汇饮品股份有限公司（603156）公布2024年年报、对外投资公告。公司控制的芜湖闻名泉泓投资管理合伙企业 （有限合伙）以货币出资方式对长江存储科技控股有限责任公司增资人民币16亿元。本次交易完成后，泉泓投资持有长控集团0.99%的股份，成为长控集团第8大 股东，但不占长控集团董事、监事席位。这16亿元投资金额占养元饮品2024年净利润17.22亿元的92.915%。长控集团2024年1-9月亏损8421万元。 养元饮品公司主营业务为以核桃仁为原料的植物蛋白饮料的研发、生产和销售，2018年2月12日在上交所主板上市。当前公司产品主要包括六个核桃精品系列、养 生系列、五星系列、无糖高钙、六个核桃2430、六个核桃"新鲜装"系列等。 2023年12月11日，养元饮品董事会会议审议通过了《关于公司对外投资的议案》，本次投资事项在董事会决策权限内，无需经公司股东大会审议。由于涉及商业 秘密，根据《上海证券交易所股票上市规则》《上海证券交易所上市公司自律监管指引第2号——信息披露事务管理》以及《河北养元智汇饮品股份有限公司信息 披露暂缓与豁免业务内部管理 ...

对此，专业人士指出，这一跨界投资不仅标志着养元饮品首次涉足半导体领域，也折射出食品饮料行业 在传统业务增长放缓背景下，通过股权投资探索第二增长曲线的战略转型趋势，与此同时，也引发了市 场对存储芯片产业链价值重构的关注。 作为全球半导体产业的核心赛道，存储芯片市场正迎来历史性机遇。全球存储芯片市场正经历技术迭代 与需求爆发的双重驱动。根据行业报告，中国存储芯片市场规模预计2030年将突破8000亿元，年均复合 增长率超过10%。随着AI大模型、5G和物联网的普及，高带宽存储（HBM）、固态硬盘（SSD）等高 性能产品需求激增。 食品饮料企业跨界投资存储芯片，积极探索第二增长曲线，国内植物蛋白饮料龙头企业——养元饮品 （603156.SH）在行动。 4月25日晚间，养元饮品发布公告，宣布其控制的私募基金泉泓投资以16亿元现金对长江存储科技控股 有限责任公司（以下简称"长控集团"）增资，交易完成后将持有后者0.99%股权。 "在当前经济环境下，股权投资行业呈现出多元化发展趋势。越来越多的企业不再局限于自身主营业务 领域，而是通过股权投资的方式，涉足其他具有发展潜力的行业。这种跨界投资行为不仅能够实现企业 资产的多元 ...