| 证券代码：603197 | 证券简称：保隆科技 | 公告编号：2025-035 | | --- | --- | --- | | 债券代码：113692 | 债券简称：保隆转债 | | 上海保隆汽车科技股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于 2025 年 4 月 28 日 召开了第七届董事会第二十四次会议，审议通过了《关于以集中竞价交易方式回 购公司股份方案的议案》，具体内容请详见公司于 2025 年 4 月 30 日在上海证券 交易所网站（www.sse.com.cn）披露的《上海保隆汽车科技股份有限公司关于以 集中竞价交易方式回购股份方案的公告》（公告编号：2025-031）。 根据《上市公司股份回购规则》《上海证券交易所上市公司自律监管指引第 7 号——回购股份》等相关规定，现将公司第七届董事会第二十四次会议决议公 告前一个交易日（即 2025 年 4 月 29 日）登记在册的前十大股东和前十大无限售 条件股东的名称、持股数量和持股比例情况公告如下： 一、董事会会议决议公告前一个交易日（2025 年 4 月 29 日）前十大股东持 股情况 | 序号 | 股东名称 | 持股数量 | 占总股本比 | | -- ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025Q1, the year-on-year growth rate of single-quarter net profit attributable to the parent of all A-shares turned positive from negative, and the year-on-year revenue growth rate slightly turned negative. After excluding finance and petroleum & petrochemicals, the year-on-year growth rate of single-quarter net profit attributable to the parent of all A non-financial and non-petroleum & petrochemicals also turned positive from negative, while the year-on-year revenue growth rate slightly declined. In terms of size style, the year-on-year growth rates of CSI 500 and CSI 1000 in the single quarter of 2025Q1 turned significantly positive from negative. In terms of major sectors, the growth rates of net profit attributable to the parent of the consumer and growth sectors led in 2025Q1, those of the cyclical and financial sectors slightly turned positive, and the negative growth rate of the stable sector significantly narrowed. In terms of industries, the performance growth rates of the midstream cyclical, some consumer, and growth industries generally improved, with agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, household appliances, automobiles, electronics, and non-banking maintaining high-speed growth [3][19][21]. - The average negative growth of the single-quarter net profit attributable to the parent of existing convertible bonds in 2025Q1 significantly narrowed, and the revenue growth rate declined. After excluding some extreme values, the average growth rate of the single-quarter net profit attributable to the parent of existing convertible bonds in 2025Q1 significantly narrowed from -42.76% in 2024Q4 to -2.23%, and the average growth rate of single-quarter revenue in 2025Q1 decreased from 8.51% in 2024Q4 to 5.36% [3][33]. - Some convertible bonds are recommended for investment. In the cyclical sector, it is recommended to overweight convertible bonds such as Guocheng, Huayou, and Guangda. In the consumer sector, it is recommended to overweight convertible bonds in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, as well as Zhongchongzhuan 2, Xinruzhuan, and Baolong. In the growth sector, it is recommended to overweight convertible bonds such as Weice, Haopeng, Guoli, and Weil [3][7][13]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. 2025Q1 Performance Growth Convertible Bond Recommendations - Among the existing 472 convertible bonds, 372 achieved profitability in the single quarter of 2025Q1. After excluding those with a balance of less than 300 million yuan and a remaining term of less than 1 year, 109 convertible bonds remain. Some convertible bonds are recommended for investment based on factors such as the sustainability of the company's high performance growth and the current price and conversion premium rate of the convertible bonds [6]. - **Cyclical Sector**: It is recommended to overweight convertible bonds with mineral resource advantages such as Guocheng and Huayou, Guangda with a positive business trend, Dongcai, Dinglong, Anji, and Zhengfan that benefit from the domestic substitution of semiconductor materials, Keli and Bo 23 that benefit from the accelerated development of the robot and AI industries, and Polai that benefits from the recovery of consumer demand and domestic substitution [7]. - **Consumer Sector**: It is recommended to overweight convertible bonds in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, including Muyuan, Juxing, Wenshi, Xiwangzhuan 2, and Hefeng. Also recommended are Zhongchongzhuan 2, the leading pet food company, Xinruzhuan, the leading regional dairy company, and Baolong, an automobile parts manufacturer [13]. - **Growth Sector**: It is recommended to overweight Weice, the leading domestic third-party integrated circuit testing service provider, Haopeng, a consumer battery manufacturer, Guoli, an electronic vacuum device manufacturer, and Weil, the global CIS leader [15]. 2. All A: Technology and Domestic Demand Lead, Midstream Cycle Warms Up - **Overall A-share Performance**: In 2025Q1, the year-on-year growth rate of single-quarter net profit attributable to the parent of all A-shares turned positive from negative, and the year-on-year revenue growth rate slightly turned negative. After excluding finance and petroleum & petrochemicals, the year-on-year growth rate of single-quarter net profit attributable to the parent of all A non-financial and non-petroleum & petrochemicals also turned positive from negative, while the year-on-year revenue growth rate slightly declined [19]. - **Size Style Performance**: In 2025Q1, the year-on-year growth rates of CSI 500 and CSI 1000 in the single quarter turned significantly positive from negative, while the year-on-year growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent of SSE 50 slightly turned negative from positive [20]. - **Sector Performance**: In 2025Q1, the growth rates of net profit attributable to the parent of the consumer and growth sectors led, those of the cyclical and financial sectors slightly turned positive, and the negative growth rate of the stable sector significantly narrowed. The revenue growth rate of the growth sector led among all sectors [21][23]. - **Industry Performance**: In 2025Q1, the performance growth rates of the midstream cyclical, some consumer, and growth industries generally improved, with agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, household appliances, automobiles, electronics, and non-banking maintaining high-speed growth. In terms of ROE and other aspects, the ROE levels of most downstream cyclical and consumer sectors declined, the gross profit margins of the optional consumer sector generally declined, and the net profit margins of the midstream cyclical sector generally recovered. The top 30 sub-industries in terms of single-quarter profit growth rate in 2025Q1 were mainly concentrated in the electronics, computer, and media industries [25][28][32]. 3. Convertible Bonds: Narrowing Negative Profit Growth, Declining Revenue Growth Rate - As of May 5, 2025, the existing 472 convertible bonds covered 27 out of 30 CITIC first-level industries, and 92% of the underlying stocks of the convertible bonds had a market value of less than 3 billion yuan. In terms of size style, the issuers of convertible bonds were generally closer to small and medium-cap stocks [33]. - The average negative growth of the single-quarter net profit attributable to the parent of existing convertible bonds in 2025Q1 significantly narrowed, and the revenue growth rate declined. After excluding some extreme values, the average growth rate of the single-quarter net profit attributable to the parent of existing convertible bonds in 2025Q1 significantly narrowed from -42.76% in 2024Q4 to -2.23%, and the average growth rate of single-quarter revenue in 2025Q1 decreased from 8.51% in 2024Q4 to 5.36% [33].

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index is at 3305.11 points, above the annual line, with an increase of 0.80% [1] - The total trading volume of A-shares is 646.819 billion yuan [1] Stocks Breaking Annual Line - A total of 233 A-shares have surpassed the annual line today [1] - Notable stocks with significant deviation rates include: - Jinkai Biological Science and Technology (10.11%) - Disen Power (9.84%) - Hanbo High-tech (8.84%) [1] Stock Performance Details - The top stocks with their respective performance metrics are as follows: - Jinkai Biological: Price increased by 10.32%, turnover rate 13.55%, latest price 33.02 yuan [1] - Disen Power: Price increased by 10.04%, turnover rate 1.77%, latest price 4.93 yuan [1] - Hanbo High-tech: Price increased by 9.42%, turnover rate 3.54%, latest price 15.33 yuan [1] - Other notable stocks include: - Jiashitang (9.97%, 3.57%, 13.13 yuan) - Sanmu Group (9.94%, 7.78%, 3.54 yuan) [1] Additional Stocks with Minor Deviations - Stocks with smaller deviation rates that have just crossed the annual line include: - Yongqing Environmental Protection - Dongjian Technology - Aishide [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's 2024 revenue is projected to be 7.03 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.1%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 300 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 20.1% [7] - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 1.9 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 76.5% in net profit attributable to the parent company [7] - The company is experiencing strong growth in new businesses, particularly in sensors and air suspension, with revenues of 670 million yuan and 990 million yuan respectively, showing year-on-year growth rates of 25.4% and 41.8% [7] - The overall gross margin for 2024 is expected to be 25.1%, a decrease of 2.4 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the lower margins of new products [7] Financial Forecasts - Total revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted to 9.1 billion yuan and 11.1 billion yuan respectively, down from previous estimates of 9.5 billion yuan and 11.5 billion yuan [7] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025 and 2026 is revised to 510 million yuan and 720 million yuan respectively, compared to earlier estimates of 590 million yuan and 780 million yuan [7] - The projected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 16, 11, and 9 times respectively [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's 2024 revenue is projected to be 7.03 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.1%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 300 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 20.1% [7] - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 1.9 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 76.5% in net profit attributable to the parent company [7] - The company is experiencing strong growth in new businesses, particularly in the sensor and air suspension sectors, with revenues of 670 million yuan and 990 million yuan respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 25.4% and 41.8% [7] - The overall gross margin for 2024 is expected to be 25.1%, a decrease of 2.4 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the lower margins of new products [7] Financial Forecasts - Total revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted to 9.1 billion yuan and 11.1 billion yuan respectively, down from previous estimates of 9.5 billion yuan and 11.5 billion yuan [7] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025 and 2026 is revised to 510 million yuan and 720 million yuan respectively, compared to earlier estimates of 590 million yuan and 780 million yuan [7] - The projected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 16, 11, and 9 times respectively [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Baolong Technology (603197.SH) [4][6]. Core Views - Baolong Technology's net profit in Q1 increased by 40% year-on-year, with expectations for accelerated performance release in 2025. The company achieved a revenue of 7.025 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 19.12%, and a net profit of 303 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 20.14%, primarily due to 124 million yuan in stock incentive expenses [1][10]. - The company is a global leader in TPMS (Tire Pressure Monitoring System) and has a robust order book for new products, despite a downward adjustment in profit forecasts due to product structure changes and increased competition [4][28]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, Baolong Technology's overall gross margin is projected to be 25.05%, a decrease of 2.35 percentage points year-on-year, influenced by the ramp-up of lower-margin ADAS products. The sales, management, and R&D expense ratios for 2024 are expected to be 3.29%, 5.81%, and 8.11%, respectively [2][13]. - The company reported a revenue of 19.99 billion yuan in Q4 2024, a year-on-year increase of 14.69%, and a net profit of 54 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.71% [10][11]. Product and Market Positioning - Baolong Technology has a comprehensive product layout in air suspension, having secured a project with a well-known European OEM for a new platform, marking a significant breakthrough for domestic air spring suppliers [3][28]. - The company has developed a diverse range of sensors, covering six categories and over 40 products, with an average vehicle value of approximately 1,000 yuan per sensor [36][38]. - The air suspension market is expected to grow significantly, with projections indicating that by 2026, the annual delivery scale of passenger cars equipped with air suspension systems in China could reach 3 million units, corresponding to a market size of approximately 24 billion yuan [30][32]. Profit Forecasts and Financial Metrics - The profit forecasts for Baolong Technology have been adjusted downward, with expected net profits of 479 million yuan, 570 million yuan, and 689 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [4][5]. - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 58.97 billion yuan in 2023 to 89.57 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 27.5% [5].

Core Viewpoint - The company achieved a net profit growth of 40% year-on-year in Q1, with expectations for accelerated performance in 2025 [2][9] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported revenue of 7.025 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.12%, and a net profit of 303 million yuan, a decrease of 20.14%, primarily due to 124 million yuan in stock incentive expenses. Adjusted operating net profit was 427 million yuan, up 13% [3][9] - In Q4 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1.999 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.69% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8.47%. The net profit was 54 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.71% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 46.20% [3][9] - In Q1 2025, revenue reached 1.905 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.46%, with a net profit of 95 million yuan, up 39.99% year-on-year [3][9] Product Structure and Margins - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 25.05%, a decrease of 2.35 percentage points, influenced by the lower profitability of ADAS products. The sales, management, and R&D expense ratios were 3.29%, 5.81%, and 8.11%, respectively [4][14] - In Q1 2025, the expense ratios were 2.89% for sales, 5.93% for management, and 6.98% for R&D, indicating a reduction in stock incentive expenses and potential for accelerated net profit recovery [4][14] Market Position and Product Development - The company remains a leader in the TPMS market, selling 66.73 million transmitters in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 22% [6][32] - The company has established a comprehensive product layout in air suspension, achieving a shipment of 1.8093 million units in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 22%. It also secured a project with a well-known European OEM, marking a significant breakthrough for domestic suppliers [7][20][23] - The company has developed a range of 40 types of sensors across six categories, enhancing its capabilities in intelligent driving technologies [8][30] Subsidiary Performance - The profitability of key subsidiaries has improved significantly, with Ningguo Baolong achieving a net profit growth of 48% in 2024, and Baofu Overseas reporting a net profit increase of over 1300% [18][19] Order Backlog and Production Capacity - The company has over 14 billion yuan in orders for air suspension systems, with production capacity gradually being released from two expansions that added 4.28 million units [20][27] - The air suspension market is expected to grow significantly, with projections of 3 million units delivered by 2026, indicating substantial revenue potential [20][27] Strategic Partnerships and Market Trends - The company has established long-term supply relationships with major automotive manufacturers, including Tesla and various domestic brands, enhancing its market presence [20][23] - The air suspension system's penetration rate is expected to increase, with the market projected to reach approximately 24 billion yuan by 2026 [20][27]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue of 7.025 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 19.12%, but a net profit attributable to shareholders of 303 million yuan, a decrease of 20.14% year-on-year. The first quarter of 2025 showed a revenue of 1.905 billion yuan, up 28.46% year-on-year, and a net profit of 95 million yuan, up 39.99% year-on-year [2][4]. Revenue and Profit Analysis - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1.999 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.71% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8.46%. The revenue for Q1 2025 was 1.905 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 28.46% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 4.69%. The growth in revenue was attributed to increased sales from key customers, with 92,864 vehicles delivered by Li Auto in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 15.50% [2][3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders in Q4 2024 was 54 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.71% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 46.20%, impacted by stock incentive costs and shipping fees. In Q1 2025, the net profit was 95 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39.99% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 76.46% [2][3]. - The gross margin for Q4 2024 was 22.18%, down 4.00 percentage points year-on-year and 2.42 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to changes in product mix. The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 23.25%, down 6.20 percentage points year-on-year but up 1.07 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2][3]. Expense Analysis - In Q4 2024, the expense ratios for sales, management, R&D, and financial costs were 2.83%, 3.80%, 7.64%, and 2.37%, respectively, showing year-on-year changes of -2.50, -2.42, -1.47, and +1.13 percentage points. The financial cost changes were due to increased interest expenses. In Q1 2025, the expense ratios were 2.87%, 5.94%, 6.96%, and 0.47%, with year-on-year changes of -0.79, -1.65, -1.91, and -1.36 percentage points, indicating a decrease in stock incentive costs [2][3]. Business Growth and Orders - The company’s emerging businesses are growing rapidly, with sensor revenue reaching 665 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 25.37%, accounting for 9.71% of total revenue. As of Q1 2025, the ADAS business had accumulated orders exceeding 6.67 billion yuan, with new orders of 712 million yuan added in Q1 2025 [3]. - The air suspension business also showed significant growth, with revenue of 993 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 41.80%, accounting for 14.51% of total revenue. As of Q1 2025, the air suspension business had accumulated orders exceeding 23.48 billion yuan [4]. Investment Outlook - The company maintains a leading global market share in traditional businesses, with a solid foundation. The emerging business product matrix is complete, creating new growth points. Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 8.676 billion, 10.836 billion, and 13.057 billion yuan, with net profits of 501 million, 654 million, and 836 million yuan, respectively. Corresponding EPS estimates are 2.34, 3.05, and 3.90 yuan, with PE ratios of 16, 12, and 10 times [4][6].

2025年4月30日，保隆科技(603197.SH)发布2025年第一季报。截至2025年4月30日，共有41个机构投资 者披露持有保隆科技A股股份，合计持股量达3148.50万股，占保隆科技总股本的14.68%。其中，前十 大机构投资者包括国投招商投资管理有限公司-先进制造产业投资基金二期(有限合伙)、广发基金管理有 限公司-社保基金四二零组合、香港中央结算有限公司、中国建设银行股份有限公司-信澳匠心臻选两年 持有期混合型证券投资基金、广发稳健回报混合A、长城久富混合(LOF)A、华泰保兴成长优选A、华安 中小盘成长混合、广发制造业精选混合A、华安智能装备主题股票A，前十大机构投资者合计持股比例 达11.91%。相较于上一季度，前十大机构持股比例合计下跌了2.67个百分点。 公募基金方面，本期较上一期持股增加的公募基金共计6个，主要包括华安幸福生活混合A、华泰保兴 成长优选A、民生加银积极成长发起式、民生加银内需增长混合、大成可转债增强债券A等，持股增加 占比达0.33%。本期较上一季度持股减少的公募基金共计6个，主要包括广发稳健回报混合A、广发制造 业精选混合A、金信深圳成长混合A、鹏华上华一年持有期混合 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company experienced revenue growth of 19.12% year-on-year in 2024, reaching 7.025 billion yuan, but faced a decline in net profit by 20.14% to 303 million yuan [1][5]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 1.905 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.46%, and a net profit of 95 million yuan, up 39.99% year-on-year [2][3]. - The company is seeing strong growth in its emerging businesses, particularly in sensor and ADAS (Advanced Driver Assistance Systems) sectors, with significant order backlogs [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 70.25 billion yuan, with a net profit of 3.03 billion yuan, reflecting a 20.14% decrease [1]. - For Q1 2025, the revenue was 19.05 billion yuan, with a net profit of 0.95 billion yuan, marking a 39.99% increase year-on-year [2]. Business Segments - The sensor business generated 6.65 billion yuan in revenue in 2024, growing by 25.37% year-on-year, while the ADAS business had an order backlog exceeding 66.70 billion yuan as of Q1 2025 [3]. - The air suspension business also showed strong growth, with 2024 revenue of 9.93 billion yuan, up 41.80% year-on-year, and an order backlog of over 234.80 billion yuan [3]. Future Projections - The report forecasts revenues of 86.8 billion yuan, 108.4 billion yuan, and 130.6 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits projected at 5.0 billion yuan, 6.5 billion yuan, and 8.4 billion yuan [4][5]. - The expected EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is 2.34 yuan, 3.05 yuan, and 3.90 yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 16, 12, and 10 [4][5].