南财智讯12月15日电，吉祥航空公告，东方航空产业投资有限公司持有公司股份281,470,926股，占公司 总股本的12.89%。因自身业务安排及需要，东航产投拟在2026年1月8日至2026年4月7日期间，通过集 中竞价交易方式减持不超过2,184.0052万股股份，合计不超过公司总股本的1%。减持价格将按市场价格 确定。上述减持期间若公司有送股、资本公积金转增股本等股份变动事项，减持数量将做相应调整。本 次减持计划不影响公司与东航产投的战略合作，其将维持对吉祥航空的战略持股。 ...

Group 1: Aviation Industry - The aviation sector is expected to enter a super cycle, driven by high passenger load factors and low ticket prices, with demand growth anticipated to boost profitability by 2026 [1] - Recent public and business demand has shown recovery, with ticket prices increasing year-on-year due to the release of suppressed demand from the summer season [1] - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission emphasized the need for state-owned enterprises to resist "involution" competition, which may enhance revenue management and profitability in the aviation sector [1] Group 2: Oil Transportation - Oil transportation rates remain high, with the VLCC TCE maintaining around $120,000, driven by increased global oil production and limited effective supply due to aging tankers [2] - The outlook for oil transportation is positive, with expectations of demand growth exceeding forecasts, despite potential short-term impacts from seasonal fluctuations [2] - The U.S. has intensified sanctions on shadow fleets, which may further support the upward trend in oil transportation rates [2] Group 3: Airport Duty-Free - Shanghai Airport has announced a new duty-free contract model, shifting to a fixed fee plus actual sales commission, which may stabilize or enhance duty-free revenue [3] - The introduction of competition between domestic and international duty-free operators is expected to drive sales growth and improve pricing competitiveness [3] - The new contract structure and competitive environment are likely to incentivize duty-free operators, potentially leading to increased operational enthusiasm [3]

Core Viewpoint - The aviation sector is experiencing a rebound, with notable increases in stock prices for major airlines in China, including China Southern Airlines and Air China, as competition in the international route market intensifies in December [1][7]. Group 1: Market Trends - As of December 10, several airlines, including Eastern Airlines, Southern Airlines, Hainan Airlines, and Juneyao Airlines, have opened, increased, or resumed international routes, targeting the peak travel periods of New Year's, winter vacation, and Spring Festival [3][9]. - The competition in the international route market is heating up, indicating a strategic move by airlines to capture passenger flow during high-demand periods [3][9]. Group 2: Financial Outlook - Guotai Junan Securities has maintained an "overweight" rating on airline oil transportation, predicting a significant reduction in losses for the airline industry in Q4 2025 and an overall turnaround for the year [3][9]. - The report suggests that demand growth will drive ticket prices and profitability upward and that this trend is sustainable, recommending a contrarian approach to investing in the super cycle [3][9]. - Despite a slight correction in oil transportation rates, they remain at high levels, and the impact of the Russia-Ukraine negotiations is expected to be limited, with an optimistic outlook for future industry performance exceeding expectations [3][9].

Core Insights - The international airline market is experiencing intensified competition as airlines prepare for peak travel periods around New Year's, winter holidays, and the Spring Festival [1] Group 1: New Route Developments - China Southern Airlines (CZ377) launched a new route from Guangzhou to Madrid, achieving over 90% seat occupancy on return flights [2] - China Southern Airlines also inaugurated a direct flight from Guangzhou to Darwin, reducing travel time to approximately 6 hours [2] - Eastern Airlines opened a significant new route from Shanghai to Buenos Aires via Auckland, marking the longest single-route flight globally and filling a gap in direct flights to South America [2] - Hainan Airlines announced three new Southeast Asia routes, including Haikou to Kuala Lumpur and Ho Chi Minh City, set to open in December [2][3] - Sichuan Airlines resumed its direct flight from Chengdu to Auckland [3] Group 2: Travel Demand and Booking Trends - Flight ticket bookings for the upcoming New Year holiday have surged, with domestic route bookings exceeding 1.06 million, a year-on-year increase of approximately 45%, and international route bookings surpassing 530,000, up about 15% [4] - Popular outbound destinations for the New Year include Bangkok, Seoul, and Singapore, with long-distance destinations like London and Sydney also in demand [4] - The travel booking platform reported a significant increase in interest for outbound travel products, with overall booking activity rising over 30% compared to the previous year [4] - There is a growing interest in long-haul destinations such as Australia, Turkey, Egypt, and Switzerland, indicating a shift towards more diverse travel options [5] - The expansion of international routes is expected to enhance flight accessibility and meet the increasing demand for travel from China and to China [5]

Investment Summary - The transportation industry has shown a significant underperformance compared to the broader market, ranking among the lowest in terms of growth within the Shenwan primary industry indices as of December 8, 2025 [15][16] - The implementation of anti-involution policies has positively impacted the fundamentals of certain segments within the transportation sector, particularly benefiting the aviation and express delivery sectors [26][30] 2026 Outlook - The focus for 2026 remains on sectors benefiting from anti-involution policies and high-certainty stocks, with a long-term impact expected from these policies on stock price movements [5][34] - Key sectors to watch include aviation, express delivery, and regional shipping, while high-dividend and low-debt companies are expected to attract more investor interest in weaker cyclical areas [5][34] Express Delivery Sector - The express delivery industry has seen a recovery in profitability driven by rising single-package prices, with major companies like YTO Express and Shentong Express showing significant improvements [6][35] - The trend of price competition has been curtailed, leading to a decrease in package volume growth as companies focus on maintaining service quality and profitability [6][38] - The competitive strategies among companies have diverged, with YTO and Shentong performing strongly, while Yunda has struggled with profitability and market share [42][53] Aviation Sector - The aviation sector has experienced a notable improvement in performance since Q2 2025, with major airlines reporting increased profitability compared to the previous year [63][64] - The focus for 2026 will be on the transition from high passenger load factors to higher ticket prices, supported by controlled supply and strong demand [69][87] - Major airlines are expected to maintain cautious procurement strategies, with a projected fleet growth of around 5% in 2026 [69][80] Highway Sector - The highway sector has faced significant adjustments in stock prices, leading to a more rational market approach towards high-dividend investments [8][4.1] - Following substantial adjustments, the attractiveness of highway stocks has improved, with a focus on companies with high dividend ratios and low debt levels [8][4.3]

Core Insights - The international airline market is experiencing intensified competition as airlines prepare for the peak travel season around New Year's, winter holidays, and the Spring Festival [1] Group 1: New Routes and Capacity Expansion - Multiple airlines, including China Eastern Airlines (CEA), China Southern Airlines (CSA), Hainan Airlines, and Juneyao Airlines, have launched, increased, or resumed international routes to capture passenger traffic [1] - CSA's new route from Guangzhou to Madrid has seen a high occupancy rate of over 90% for both outbound and return flights [2] - CSA has also launched a direct flight from Guangzhou to Darwin, reducing travel time to approximately 6 hours, and CEA has opened a significant route from Shanghai to Buenos Aires via Auckland, marking the longest single-route flight and filling a gap in direct flights to South America [4] Group 2: Southeast Asia and Future Plans - Hainan Airlines announced three new Southeast Asia routes, including direct flights from Qionghai to Kuala Lumpur and planned routes from Haikou to Ho Chi Minh City and Hanoi [6] - Juneyao Airlines plans to launch a direct flight from Shanghai to Tawau, Malaysia, in January 2026, enhancing access to popular diving destinations [6] - Sichuan Airlines has resumed its direct flight from Chengdu to Auckland, and CSA will increase its Guangzhou to Sydney flights to four round trips daily during the peak season [6] Group 3: Travel Demand and Booking Trends - Flight ticket bookings for the upcoming New Year holiday have increased significantly, with domestic route bookings exceeding 1.06 million, up approximately 45%, and international route bookings surpassing 530,000, up about 15% [7] - Popular international destinations for the New Year include Bangkok, Seoul, and Singapore, with long-haul destinations like London and Sydney also gaining traction [7] - There is a notable increase in bookings for long-distance flights to Australia, Turkey, Egypt, and Switzerland, indicating a shift in traveler preferences towards more diverse and distant destinations [8] Group 4: Market Outlook - The continuous opening and enhancement of mid- to long-haul international routes are expected to improve flight accessibility and expand the global route network [10] - New routes such as Guangzhou to Darwin and Shanghai to Buenos Aires effectively tap into the long-haul market, catering to the growing demand from Chinese travelers and foreign visitors to China [10]

Core Insights - The aviation and airport sector saw a rise of 1.14% on December 10, with HNA Holding leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3900.5, down 0.23%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13316.42, up 0.29% [1] Stock Performance - HNA Holding (600221) closed at 1.80, up 4.05% with a trading volume of 8.32 million shares [1] - Shanghai Airport (600009) closed at 32.39, up 1.73% with a trading volume of 147,300 shares [1] - Southern Airlines (600029) closed at 6.98, up 1.16% with a trading volume of 258,000 shares [1] - Shenzhen Airport (000089) closed at 6.98, up 1.01% with a trading volume of 88,900 shares [1] - China National Aviation (601111) closed at 8.24, up 0.73% with a trading volume of 306,800 shares [1] - Baiyun Airport (600004) closed at 9.71, up 0.62% with a trading volume of 108,200 shares [1] - Huaxia Airlines (002928) closed at 10.02, up 0.60% with a trading volume of 120,500 shares [1] - Juneyao Airlines (603885) closed at 13.48, up 0.60% with a trading volume of 123,400 shares [1] - China Eastern Airlines (600115) closed at 5.08, up 0.59% with a trading volume of 473,000 shares [1] - CITIC Offshore Helicopter (000099) closed at 20.18, up 0.30% with a trading volume of 56,600 shares [1] Capital Flow - The aviation and airport sector experienced a net outflow of 3.6965 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 8.92532 million yuan [2] - The overall capital flow indicates a mixed sentiment among different investor types within the sector [2] Individual Stock Capital Flow - HNA Holding saw a net inflow of 14.2 million yuan from institutional investors, but a significant outflow of 85.3144 million yuan from retail investors [3] - China Eastern Airlines had a net inflow of 23.1458 million yuan from institutional investors, with retail investors also experiencing a net outflow [3] - China National Aviation had a net inflow of 9.8210 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors had a net inflow of 660.88 million yuan [3] - Baiyun Airport had a net inflow of 3.9543 million yuan from institutional investors, but retail investors faced a net outflow [3] - Huaxia Airlines had a net inflow of 3.0489 million yuan from institutional investors, with retail investors showing a slight net inflow [3]

Market Performance - The aviation and airport sector increased by 0.91% on December 8, with Xiamen Airport leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3924.08, up 0.54%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13329.99, up 1.39% [1] Stock Performance - Xiamen Airport (600897) saw a significant rise of 10.00%, closing at 18.92 with a trading volume of 176,200 shares and a transaction value of 318 million yuan [1] - China Eastern Airlines (600115) increased by 2.35%, closing at 5.22 with a transaction value of 465 million yuan [1] - Other notable performers include: - 吉祥航空 (603885) up 1.84% to 13.84 [1] - 海航控股 (600221) up 1.13% to 1.79 [1] - 上海机场 (600009) up 1.07% to 32.15 [1] Capital Flow - The aviation and airport sector experienced a net outflow of 1.1847 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net outflow of 113 million yuan [2] - Conversely, speculative funds recorded a net inflow of 11.4 million yuan [2] Individual Stock Capital Flow - Xiamen Airport (600897) had a net inflow of 75.8533 million yuan from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 41.6046 million yuan from retail investors [3] - Shanghai Airport (600009) saw a net inflow of 12.4068 million yuan from institutional investors, with a net outflow of 19.0737 million yuan from retail investors [3] - China Eastern Airlines (600115) experienced a net outflow of 5.7540 million yuan from institutional investors, while speculative funds had a net inflow of 37.2950 million yuan [3]

Investment Rating - The report rates the transportation industry as "Outperform" [2] Core Views - Crude oil freight rates have declined from high levels, with mixed changes in ocean freight rates. The China Import Crude Oil Composite Index (CTFI) was reported at 2321.90 points on December 4, down 7.9% from November 27. The VLCC market has seen transactions at major loading ports, with shipowners trying to maintain price levels despite a cooling market [3][14] - China Eastern Airlines has launched the world's longest one-way flight route from Shanghai to Buenos Aires, reducing travel time by over 4 hours. Additionally, a ton-class eVTOL was included in urban firefighting drills for the first time [3][16] - In November, China's express delivery volume exceeded 180 billion items for the first time, marking a new record. The first full schedule China-Europe freight train departed from Shijiazhuang [3][24] Summary by Sections Industry Hot Events - Crude oil freight rates have decreased, with the Middle East route showing a 9.76% drop. The Shanghai port's export rates to Europe and the US have also seen declines of 0.3%, 5.0%, and 4.7% respectively [14][15] - The launch of the longest flight route by China Eastern Airlines connects Shanghai to Buenos Aires, significantly shortening travel time [16][17] - The express delivery volume in China reached a record high of 180 billion items in November, reflecting strong economic vitality [24][26] High-Frequency Data Tracking - The Baltic Air Freight Price Index has increased month-on-month but decreased year-on-year. The Shanghai outbound air freight price index was reported at 5721.00 points, up 2.4% year-on-year [28] - Domestic freight flight numbers decreased by 2.03% year-on-year in November, while international flights increased by 14.88% [30] - The SCFI index for container shipping was reported at 1397.63 points, down 0.39% week-on-week and down 38.06% year-on-year [37] Investment Recommendations - Focus on the equipment and manufacturing export chain, recommending companies like COSCO Shipping, China Merchants Energy Shipping, and Huamao Logistics [5] - Attention to the transportation demand increase driven by hydropower station construction in the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream [5] - Investment opportunities in low-altitude economy trends, recommending CITIC Offshore Helicopter [5] - Opportunities in the highway and railway sectors, recommending Gansu Expressway, Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway, and others [5] - Investment opportunities in the cruise and ferry sectors, recommending Bohai Ferry and Haixia Shares [5] - E-commerce and express delivery investment opportunities, recommending SF Express, Jitu Express, and Yunda [5] - Opportunities in the aviation sector, recommending Air China, China Southern Airlines, and others [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the transportation industry, with specific recommendations for companies such as China Shipping, COSCO Shipping Energy, and others in the shipping sector [6][4]. Core Insights - The report highlights the recovery in shipping rates, particularly for VLCCs, which have seen a rise in one-year charter rates to $58,000 per day. It suggests that investors should capitalize on seasonal fluctuations in freight rates [6][4]. - The report emphasizes the strong performance of the road freight sector, which has shown a significant increase of 6.90% in the latest week, outperforming other sub-sectors [7][8]. - The aviation sector is expected to experience a golden era due to rising passenger volumes and constrained supply, with recommendations for several airlines including China Eastern Airlines and Spring Airlines [6][4]. Summary by Sections Shipping - VLCC average rates reached $115,290 per day, despite a 6% week-on-week decline. The market remains tight, with expectations of increased cargo volumes leading to potential rate increases [6][4]. - The report notes a 2% increase in second-hand bulk carrier prices and a slight uptick in new ship prices, indicating a potential turning point in the market [6][4]. Road Freight - The road freight sector has shown resilience, with a reported increase in freight volume of 0.74% week-on-week, indicating steady growth [7][8]. - The report identifies Dragon Boat Holdings as a standout performer in the road freight sector, with a significant weekly gain of 40.2% [13]. Aviation - The report anticipates a significant improvement in airline profitability due to increased international travel and a historical high in passenger load factors [6][4]. - Recommendations include major airlines such as China Southern Airlines and Cathay Pacific, which are expected to benefit from these trends [6][4]. Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is entering a new phase of competition, with expectations of price stabilization and profit recovery. Companies like YTO Express and ZTO Express are highlighted as key players [6][4]. Rail and Highway - Rail freight and highway truck traffic are projected to maintain steady growth, with the report noting a slight decrease in highway truck traffic of 0.24% week-on-week [6][4]. - The report suggests that high-dividend investment strategies in the highway sector remain attractive [6][4].