Core Viewpoint - 吉祥航空's stock price has experienced fluctuations, with a recent decline of 2.13% and a year-to-date drop of 1.21%, indicating potential volatility in the market [1][2]. Company Overview - 吉祥航空, established on March 23, 2006, and listed on May 27, 2015, is primarily engaged in air passenger and cargo transportation, with passenger revenue accounting for 94.98% of total revenue [2]. - The company operates within the transportation sector, specifically in the aviation industry, and is part of various investment concepts including social security heavy positions and MSCI China [2]. Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, 吉祥航空 reported a revenue of 17.48 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.06% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.089 billion yuan, down 14.28% year-on-year [2]. - Cumulatively, since its A-share listing, 吉祥航空 has distributed a total of 2.35 billion yuan in dividends, with 565 million yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. Shareholder Structure - As of September 30, 2025, 吉祥航空 had 24,200 shareholders, an increase of 2.09% from the previous period, with an average of 90,121 circulating shares per shareholder, a decrease of 2.72% [2]. - Notable shareholders include 工银可转债债券 (003401) as the fourth largest shareholder with 22.07 million shares, and 南方中证500ETF (510500) as a new entrant in the top ten shareholders with 12.80 million shares [3].

Core Insights - China's aviation population has surpassed 500 million, making it the world's largest aviation population country, with fixed asset investment in civil aviation reaching 630 billion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [1] - The growth in aviation population is supported by the steady expansion of the aviation industry's transport scale and accelerated infrastructure development, alongside measures to boost domestic demand and consumption [1] Group 1: Industry Growth and Performance - In 2025, China's civil aviation industry achieved a total transport turnover of 1,640.8 billion ton-kilometers and a passenger transport volume of 770 million, representing year-on-year growth of 10.5% and 5.5% respectively [2] - The international flight recovery reached over 90% of 2019 levels, with international passenger transport volume increasing by 21.6% year-on-year [2] - The civil aviation industry aims to achieve a transport turnover of 1,750 billion ton-kilometers and a passenger transport volume of 810 million in 2026, driven by macroeconomic development and policies to expand domestic demand [2] Group 2: Capacity and Operational Efficiency - The passenger load factor in 2025 reached 85.1%, an increase of 1.8 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a strong recovery in the passenger market [3] - Analysts predict that the load factor will continue to rise in 2026, suggesting potential for high price elasticity due to elevated load factors [3] - In 2025, the civil aviation industry reported a profit of 6.5 billion yuan, reflecting improved operational efficiency [4] Group 3: Route Expansion and Fleet Development - In 2025, significant route expansions were noted, including the resumption of regular flights between China and India and the launch of the longest single-route flight from Shanghai to Buenos Aires [4] - Airlines are actively opening new routes and increasing flight frequencies to enhance travel convenience, with Spring Airlines planning to open and restore several international and domestic routes in 2026 [4] - Major airlines have announced plans to purchase a total of 118 Airbus A320 aircraft, with a catalog price exceeding 18.1 billion USD, scheduled for delivery starting in 2028 [6] Group 4: Innovative Service Models - Airlines are exploring "Aviation+" business models, integrating services such as travel, culture, and education to enhance customer experience and stimulate consumption [7] - China Eastern Airlines plans to invest over 100 million yuan in aviation consumption vouchers in 2026 to promote travel and tourism consumption [7] - The average flight distance for domestic routes increased to 1,262 kilometers in 2025, indicating a shift towards longer-distance travel and a focus on underdeveloped markets [7][8] Group 5: Market Trends and Consumer Behavior - The demand for long-distance international routes is growing faster than domestic routes, indicating a structural improvement in overall aviation demand [8] - Airlines are leveraging local tourism resources to create unique travel experiences, contributing to local economic growth [8] - The recovery in business travel sentiment is expected to further drive aviation demand, supported by enhanced service quality and expanded consumer bases [8]

Market Overview - The aviation and airport sector experienced a decline of 0.33% on January 8, with Xiamen Airport leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4082.98, down 0.07%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13959.48, down 0.51% [1] Stock Performance - Notable stock performances include: - CITIC Hainan Airlines (Code: 6600000) rose by 2.26% to close at 21.27 with a trading volume of 249,100 shares and a turnover of 530 million yuan [1] - Spring Airlines (Code: 601021) increased by 0.66% to 59.43 with a turnover of 310 million yuan [1] - China Eastern Airlines (Code: 600115) saw a rise of 0.65% to 6.18 with a trading volume of 827,800 shares [1] - Xiamen Airport (Code: 600897) fell by 1.86% to 17.39 with a turnover of 162 million yuan [2] Capital Flow - The aviation and airport sector saw a net outflow of 222 million yuan from major funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 243 million yuan [2] - The capital flow for individual stocks indicates: - CITIC Hainan Airlines had a net outflow of 33.83 million yuan from major funds [3] - Shanghai Airport experienced a net inflow of 11.45 million yuan from major funds [3] - Xiamen Airport had a net outflow of 15.54 million yuan from major funds but a net inflow of 16.07 million yuan from retail investors [3]

Core Insights - The aviation industry is expected to enter a more significant profit growth phase, as indicated by the recent national civil aviation work conference held by the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) [1] Group 1: Industry Developments - The CAAC has outlined seven key tasks for civil aviation work in 2026, focusing on enhancing core competitiveness and innovating macro-control measures to address "involution" competition [1] - The CAAC plans to develop a passenger transport cost survey method and establish a price monitoring and early warning mechanism to prevent unhealthy competition by collecting data from airlines [1] Group 2: Pricing Trends - Domestic ticket prices have been declining, with an average bare ticket price of 704 yuan in the first 50 weeks of 2025, down 1.8% from 2024 and 11.3% from 2019 [3] - In the fourth quarter of 2025, ticket prices showed a year-on-year increase, with an average full ticket price of 628 yuan, up 2.5% year-on-year but down 10.7% from 2029 [3] Group 3: Financial Performance - The overall profitability of listed airlines improved in the first three quarters of 2025, with all but Spring Airlines and Juneyao Airlines reporting profits [4] - The CAAC reported that in 2025, the total transport turnover reached 1,640.8 billion ton-kilometers, with passenger transport volume at 770 million and cargo/mail transport volume at 10.172 million tons, reflecting year-on-year growth of 10.5%, 5.5%, and 13.3% respectively [4] Group 4: Demand Drivers - The growth in international flight demand is supported by visa-free policies, with 40.6 million foreign visitors entering China by December 16, 2025, marking a 27.2% year-on-year increase [5] - The recovery of international flights to over 90% of 2019 levels and a 21.6% year-on-year increase in international passenger transport volume further contribute to the positive outlook for airlines [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - The aviation and airport sector experienced a slight decline of 0.2% on January 7, with CITIC Hainan Airlines leading the drop. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.05%, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.06% [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Xiamen Airport (600897) closed at 17.72, up by 2.72% with a trading volume of 151,500 shares and a transaction value of 268 million yuan [1]. - Southern Airlines (600029) closed at 8.15, up by 0.74% with a trading volume of 448,600 shares and a transaction value of 366 million yuan [1]. - Spring Airlines (601021) closed at 59.04, up by 0.63% with a trading volume of 63,900 shares and a transaction value of 379 million yuan [1]. - China Eastern Airlines (600115) closed at 6.14, up by 0.16% with a trading volume of 873,400 shares and a transaction value of 538 million yuan [1]. - China National Aviation (601111) closed at 9.15, down by 0.54% with a trading volume of 581,300 shares and a transaction value of 534 million yuan [2]. Group 2: Capital Flow - The aviation and airport sector saw a net outflow of 247 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 184 million yuan [2]. - Xiamen Airport had a net inflow of 41.95 million yuan from institutional investors, accounting for 15.68% of its total trading [3]. - Shanghai Airport experienced a net inflow of 28.87 million yuan from institutional investors, representing 7.73% of its total trading [3]. - China Eastern Airlines had a net outflow of 21.72 million yuan from institutional investors, with retail investors contributing a net inflow of 13.25 million yuan [3].

Core Viewpoint - The aviation industry is expected to see a significant recovery in passenger turnover and profitability by 2025, with a projected passenger turnover of 1,099 billion person-kilometers in November 2025, representing an 18.2% increase compared to 2019 and a 9.6% increase compared to 2024 [1]. Aviation Passenger Transport Key Data - Demand: In November 2025, domestic passenger turnover (excluding regional) is projected to be 809 billion person-kilometers, up 19.6% from 2019 and 6.3% from 2024. International and regional passenger turnover is expected to reach 291 billion person-kilometers, reflecting a 14.5% increase from 2019 and a 19.9% increase from 2024 [1]. - Supply: The available seat kilometers in November 2025 are projected to be 1,283 billion, up 12.4% from 2019 and 6.4% from 2024. The passenger load factor is expected to be 85.7%, an increase of 4.2 percentage points from 2019 and 2.5 percentage points from 2024 [2]. - Ticket Prices: In November, the average full ticket price for domestic routes is expected to rise by 3.5% year-on-year, while the bare ticket price is expected to increase by 3.8% [2]. - Performance of Listed Airlines: In November, the year-on-year RPK changes for major airlines on domestic routes are as follows: China Southern +7.4%, Air China +7.4%, China Eastern +5.1%, Hainan Airlines +4.5%, Spring Airlines +17.9%, and Juneyao Airlines +0.8%. The ASK changes for these airlines are +5.4%, +3.8%, +2.1%, +2.8%, +16.3%, and -0.5% respectively [2]. Air Cargo Key Data - In November 2025, the number of international and regional cargo flights is expected to reach 15,977, reflecting a 12.4% increase month-on-month and a 14% increase year-on-year. The theoretical cargo capacity is projected to be 110 million tons, with an 8.2% month-on-month increase and a 12.2% year-on-year increase [3]. - The average TAC Shanghai outbound air freight price index is expected to be 5,469 points, reflecting a 1.5% month-on-month increase and a 16.2% year-on-year increase [3]. Investment Perspective - The increase in holiday time and significant year-on-year growth in industry volume and price suggest a positive outlook for Q1 spring travel performance. The recent seven-day passenger flow shows a year-on-year increase of 12.9%, with domestic passenger flow up 13.7% and bare ticket prices up 7.9% [4]. - The industry is expected to benefit from supply-demand recovery, improved oil and exchange rate conditions, and a clear trend of profitability recovery. The fourth quarter is anticipated to see a significant reduction in losses due to demand growth and stabilized ticket prices, with 2025 expected to be the first year of profitability for major airlines [4]. - Recommended stocks include Air China (601111), China Southern Airlines (600029), Juneyao Airlines (603885), Spring Airlines (601021), and Huaxia Airlines (002928), with a suggestion to pay attention to China Eastern Airlines (600115) [4].

Core Insights - The aviation and airport sector saw a 0.5% increase on January 6, with Juneyao Airlines leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4083.67, up 1.5%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14022.55, up 1.4% [1] Stock Performance - Juneyao Airlines (603885) closed at 15.26, up 3.32% with a trading volume of 252,100 shares and a turnover of 379 million yuan [1] - China Eastern Airlines (600115) closed at 6.13, up 1.32% with a trading volume of 2,259,400 shares and a turnover of 1.373 billion yuan [1] - Shenzhen Airport (000089) closed at 7.05, up 1.15% with a trading volume of 135,900 shares and a turnover of 95.385 million yuan [1] - Shanghai Airport (600009) closed at 32.97, up 0.83% with a trading volume of 121,000 shares and a turnover of 398 million yuan [1] - Xiamen Airport (600897) closed at 17.25, up 0.29% with a trading volume of 73,800 shares and a turnover of 12.7 million yuan [2] Capital Flow - The aviation and airport sector experienced a net outflow of 146 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 10.53 million yuan [2] - Major stocks like Juneyao Airlines and Shanghai Airport attracted significant net inflows from retail investors, while others like Xiamen Airport and Spring Airlines faced net outflows [3]

Market Overview - The aviation and airport sector experienced a decline of 0.31% on January 5, with China National Aviation leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4023.42, up 1.38%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13828.63, up 2.24% [1] Stock Performance - Key stocks in the aviation and airport sector showed mixed performance, with China National Aviation closing at 9.20, down 1.81%, and China Eastern Airlines at 6.05, up 0.83% [2] - The trading volume and turnover for major stocks included: - China National Aviation: 1.22 million shares, turnover of 1.11 billion [2] - China Eastern Airlines: 1.79 million shares, turnover of 1.07 billion [2] - Xiamen Airport: 66,800 shares, turnover of 115 million [2] Capital Flow - The aviation and airport sector saw a net inflow of 119 million from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 173 million [2] - The capital flow for specific stocks indicated: - China Eastern Airlines had a net inflow of 94.70 million from institutional investors [3] - China National Aviation faced a net outflow of 18.89 million from institutional investors [3] - Shenzhen Airport had a net inflow of 12.24 million from institutional investors [3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [4] Core Insights - The New Year holiday travel showed strong growth, with a total of 803 million people traveling across regions from December 31, 2025, to January 3, 2026, averaging 201 million people per day, a year-on-year increase of 19.75%. The total passenger transport volume reached 209 million, with a daily average of 52 million, up 31.1% year-on-year [4][7] - The aviation sector experienced both volume and price increases, with daily flight numbers averaging 14,900 during the holiday, a 2.9% increase compared to 2025 and a 13.2% increase compared to 2019. The average ticket price for domestic economy class reached 684.6 CNY, showing a year-on-year increase of 9.8% [4][9] - The railway and waterway transport sectors outperformed the market, with year-on-year growth rates of 54.5% and 32.7%, respectively, during the holiday period [4][7] Summary by Sections Holiday Travel Data - Total national passenger transport volume reached 20,943.4 million, with a year-on-year growth of 31.1% [7] - Railway passenger transport volume was 6,476.9 million, with a year-on-year growth of 54.5% [7] - Road passenger transport volume was 13,374 million, with a year-on-year growth of 23.2% [7] - Waterway passenger transport volume was 287.4 million, with a year-on-year growth of 32.7% [7] - Civil aviation passenger transport volume was 805.1 million, with a year-on-year growth of 13.1% [7] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on airlines with stable volume growth and improving prices, specifically mentioning Hainan Airlines, China National Aviation Holding, and Spring Airlines [4] - In the railway sector, it highlights the growth potential of Guangzhou-Shenzhen Railway and Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway due to increased capacity and network effects [4]

Group 1 - The report highlights a positive outlook for the A-share market, anticipating a "spring opening red" driven by policy expectations, liquidity, and fundamental improvements, particularly in technology, non-bank financials, and consumer sectors [1][9] - The report identifies a new trend of price increases in certain sectors, indicating a recovery in demand alongside supply constraints, particularly in chemicals and new energy materials [10][11] - The report emphasizes the importance of AI and emerging technologies in driving growth, with recommendations for investments in sectors such as technology, non-bank financials, and cyclical stocks [11][12] Group 2 - Tencent Holdings is noted for solid revenue and profit growth, with an emphasis on AI ecosystem collaboration, projecting significant increases in revenue and net profit for the coming years [17][18] - Alibaba Group is recognized for its strong AI cloud business and a clear path to reducing losses in its instant retail segment, with adjusted revenue forecasts showing growth [21][22] - Cambricon Technologies is highlighted as a leading AI chip company, with substantial revenue growth and a positive outlook for future performance, supported by increasing demand for AI chips [29][30] Group 3 - The report discusses the electronic sector, particularly Longsys Technology's IPO, which is expected to enhance the competitiveness of domestic DRAM products and support the semiconductor supply chain [24][25] - The communication sector is benefiting from AI infrastructure investments, with strong performance expected from key players in light of increased capital expenditures [34][36] - The report notes the potential for new investment opportunities in satellite internet and quantum communication as these technologies mature [38]