今年春节有望刷新"最热春节"纪录，民航旅客量也有望创历史新高。 2月2日，为期40天的2026年春运正式拉开帷幕。由于返乡探亲、学生放假、旅游度假多重客流叠加，使得春运首日就呈现出需求旺盛、出行目的地多元等特 征。 民航局数据显示，今天全民航预计保障航班19080班，运输旅客219万人次。据航旅纵横大数据，春运第一天的国内航线机票预订量超186万张，比去年春运 同期增长约5%；出入境航线机票预订量超25万张，比去年春运同期增长约7%。 记者采访的多家航司和旅游平台均预计，在史上最长春节、亲子游需求火热、外国游客"反向春运"体验中国年等多重因素叠加下，今年春节有望刷新"最热 春节"纪录，民航旅客量也有望创历史新高。 国内部分航线已售罄 在上海虹桥国际机场记者看到，早晨7点多开始，2026年春运的首个进出港航班高峰就已到来，出发大厅区域旅客往来密集。 东航地服部虹桥旅客服务中心副总经理熊杰对记者介绍，连日来东航日均服务的进出港旅客数量持续增长，特别是随着上海市中小学放假，携带孩子出行的 家庭旅客和无陪伴儿童数量明显增多。今天春运首日，东航的旅客运输量将突破42万人次。 东航营销部网络收益部副总经理孙路透露，从春运 ...

Market Overview - The aviation and airport sector declined by 0.73% on February 2, with Juneyao Airlines leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4015.75, down 2.48%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13824.35, down 2.69% [1] Stock Performance - Key stocks in the aviation sector showed varied performance: - China Eastern Airlines (600115) closed at 5.48, up 0.74% with a trading volume of 1.94 million shares and a turnover of 1.08 billion yuan - Southern Airlines (600029) closed at 7.26, up 0.69% with a trading volume of 924,400 shares and a turnover of 680 million yuan - Juneyao Airlines (603885) closed at 14.46, down 3.86% with a trading volume of 133,600 shares and a turnover of 199 million yuan [1][3] Capital Flow - The aviation and airport sector experienced a net outflow of 24.80 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net outflow of 105 million yuan and speculative funds had a net inflow of 130 million yuan [3][4] - China National Airlines (601111) had a net inflow of 12 million yuan from institutional investors, while Shenzhen Airport (000089) saw a net inflow of 23.46 million yuan [4] ETF Performance - The Aerospace ETF (product code: 159227) tracked the National Aerospace Industry Index and experienced a decline of 8.15% over the past five days, with a net subscription of 12.87 million yuan [6] - The General Aviation ETF (product code: 159230) tracked the National General Aviation Industry Index and saw a decline of 9.25%, with a net subscription of 10.71 million yuan [7]

Core Viewpoint - During the 2026 Spring Festival travel season, the company aims to enhance passenger experience through precise capacity allocation, service upgrades, and product innovations, expecting to operate approximately 18,000 flights and carry around 2.9 million passengers [1][8]. Group 1: Capacity and Route Adjustments - The company is focusing its capacity on popular travel routes, with increased flight frequencies to destinations such as Changbai Mountain, Harbin, Sanya, Beihai, and Xishuangbanna [3]. - Specific route adjustments include increasing flights from Shanghai to Changbai Mountain to 3 daily, Harbin to 5 daily, and Sanya to 5 daily, with some flights operated by wide-body aircraft for enhanced comfort [3]. - International routes to Southeast Asia, including Hanoi, Bangkok, and Kuala Lumpur, will also see increased frequency, ensuring at least one daily flight on these routes [3]. Group 2: Service Enhancements and Innovations - The company is upgrading its service from "smooth travel" to "pleasant travel experience" by optimizing ground services and retraining cabin crew to improve emergency response and service friendliness [4]. - A new "Member Peace of Mind Refund" service allows members to cancel tickets without fees up to 12 hours before departure, significantly extending the previous 2-hour limit [4]. - The introduction of the "Reverse Reunion 2 Flight Card" product caters to off-peak travel trends, allowing members to redeem flights between Shanghai and various cities before and after the Spring Festival [5]. Group 3: Brand and Customer Engagement - The "Pet Travel" service has been expanded to include more routes and relaxed restrictions on certain dog breeds, along with flexible policies for pet health certificates during the holiday period [7]. - The company has revamped its airport lounges with a festive theme and introduced a new brand mascot, "Jibao Dengdeng," to enhance emotional connections with passengers [7]. - The mascot, designed as a lively pony with a detachable mini suitcase, aims to convey warmth and companionship during travel [9]. Group 4: Overall Strategy and Commitment - The company is committed to enhancing its comprehensive support capabilities and travel experience through a multi-faceted approach, aligning with its brand philosophy of "Heartfelt Fortune, Auspicious Life" [8]. - The focus remains on operational refinement, humanized service, and youthful branding while ensuring safety and contributing to the overall value enhancement of the civil aviation industry [8].

北京商报讯（记者 关子辰 牛清妍）2月2日，记者从吉祥航空获悉，春运期间吉祥航空及旗下九元航空预计执行航 班约1.8万班次，承运旅客约290万人次。 国际及地区航线上，吉祥航空通过提升飞机利用率、合理增开夜间航班等方式，确保上海至河内、曼谷、吉隆 坡、槟城等东南亚主要航线每日至少一班；新开通的上海—斗湖（仙本那）航线则维持每周三班的稳定运营。此 外，上海—巴厘岛、上海—新加坡等需求旺盛的航线也投入了宽体机执飞。 吉祥航空春运机票预售数据显示，旅客出行偏好鲜明，地域特征明显。 国内方面，"冰雪游"与"暖冬游"持续引领出行风向，长白山、哈尔滨等北方冰雪目的地以及三亚、北海等南方温 暖海滨城市的客流显著攀升。西双版纳、南宁等地部分航线在春节高峰时段已接近售罄。国际方面，泰国、新加 坡、越南、印尼巴厘岛等东南亚目的地市场需求稳健增长。 为高效应对客流高峰，吉祥航空对整体运力进行系统化调配与加密安排。国内热门旅游航线方面，上海—长白山 增至每日3班；上海—哈尔滨达到每日5班，部分班次由宽体机执飞；上海—三亚加密至每日5班，其中每日两班从 虹桥机场起飞并使用宽体机执飞；上海—西双版纳增至每日3班；上海—北海增至每日2班。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the shipping industry, highlighting the upward potential in both oil and dry bulk markets [7]. Core Insights - Geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and Iran, have led to an increase in VLCC freight rates, with the Clarksons VLCC-TCE index rising to $116,000, a week-on-week increase of 17% [10][11]. - The BDI index has shown resilience during the off-season, closing at 2148 points, up 21.9% week-on-week, with significant increases in various vessel types [23][24]. Summary by Sections Oil Shipping - The ongoing tensions in the Middle East have resulted in a significant rise in VLCC freight rates, particularly on the Middle East to China route, which saw a 27% increase to $127,000 per day [10][11]. - The market fundamentals are weakening, with a slowdown in cargo availability and a lack of new cargo in the US Gulf market, leading to a decline in overall market activity [10][11]. Dry Bulk Shipping - The BDI index has shown a remarkable performance during the off-season, with a year-on-year increase of 89% in January, averaging 1759 points [24]. - The strong performance of the BCI index, which increased by 121% year-on-year, is attributed to supply constraints and steady demand from Brazil and West Africa [24]. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the potential for upward trends in both oil and dry bulk markets, recommending companies such as China Merchants Energy Shipping and COSCO Shipping Energy [27]. - For dry bulk, the report suggests companies like Haitong Development and Pacific Shipping, citing favorable supply and demand dynamics [28]. Industry Data Tracking - Recent data shows a year-on-year increase of 8.3% in domestic air passenger volume, with average ticket prices rising by 4.3% [29]. - The SCFI index has decreased by 10% week-on-week, indicating a decline in container shipping rates [50].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the transportation industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in the sector [1]. Core Insights - Geopolitical factors are driving up VLCC freight rates, with the Clarksons VLCC-TCE index rising to $116,000 per day, a week-on-week increase of 17%. The Middle East to China route is reported at $127,000 per day, up 27% week-on-week [1][10]. - The BDI index is showing resilience during the off-season, closing at 2148 points, a week-on-week increase of 21.9%. The average BDI for January is reported at 1759 points, a year-on-year increase of 89% [2][23][24]. Summary by Sections Oil Transportation - The ongoing tensions between the US and Iran have led to an increase in VLCC freight rates, with the market showing signs of weakness as the supply of cargo from the Middle East is tapering off [1][10]. - The Brent crude oil futures price has risen to $69.83 per barrel, a 9.6% increase since January 22, driven by concerns over potential disruptions in Middle Eastern oil supply [2][11]. Dry Bulk Transportation - The BDI index has shown strong performance despite seasonal trends, with significant increases in various sub-indices: BCI up 35.8%, BPI up 8.1%, BSI up 4.0%, and BHSI up 3.0% week-on-week [2][23]. - The report highlights that the supply side is constrained due to recent storms affecting shipping schedules, while demand remains robust due to favorable weather conditions for iron ore exports from Brazil [3][24]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a positive outlook for both oil and dry bulk markets, recommending companies such as China Merchants Energy and COSCO Shipping for oil transportation, and Haitong Development and Pacific Shipping for dry bulk [7][28]. - The report emphasizes the importance of performance elasticity and dividend value in the transportation sector, particularly in aviation and shipping [7][62].

——国泰海通交运周观察 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 岳鑫(分析师) | 0755-23976758 | yuexin@gtht.com | S0880514030006 | | | 陈亦凡(研究助理) | 0755-23976151 | chenyifan2@gtht.com | S0880124070025 | [Table_subIndustry] | 春运客流持续增长，油运盈利 Q1 大增 [Table_Industry] 运输 本报告导读： 航空：2025 年主业盈利改善符合预期，春运客流持续增长，旺季表现可期。建议布 局超级周期长逻辑。油运：预计 2026Q1 油轮盈利同比大增数倍，期待超级牛市。 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 运输《公路政策优化可期，公路法修正将是信 号》2026.01.26 运输《春运客流再创新高，原油运价维持高位》 2026.01.25 运输《全球经济温和复苏，原油运价维持高位》 2026.01.25 运输《航空春运预售启动，预计因私需 ...

[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|航空机场 亏损收敛、扭亏兑现，内需叙事启新篇 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： | [Table_Grade] 行业评级 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 前次评级 | 买入 | | 报告日期 | 2026-01-31 | [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 [分析师： Table_Author]许可 SAC 执证号：S0260523120004 SFC CE No. BUY008 0755-88285832 -10% -2% 6% 14% 22% 30% 02/25 04/25 06/25 09/25 11/25 01/26 航空机场 沪深300 | | xuke@gf.com.cn | | --- | --- | | 分析师： | 陈宇 | | | SAC 执证号：S0260524100002 | | | SFC CE No. BLW740 | | | 021-38003771 | | | shchenyu@gf.com.cn | 证券研究报告 [Table_ 相关研究： DocReport] [Table_Title] 航空机场行业 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the shipping industry, highlighting strong performance in the sector despite seasonal challenges [4]. Core Insights - The shipbuilding sector is expected to show significant earnings growth, with Su Mei Da's Q4 net profit forecasted at 2.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 71%, driven by strong contributions from shipbuilding and power generation [5]. - The shipping market continues to experience robust demand, with one-year charter rates for VLCCs rising by 2.8% to $64,000 per day, and Cape rates increasing by 8.4% to $28,700 per day [5]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing volatility in oil transportation rates, with VLCC rates experiencing a 62% increase in a single day due to supply-demand imbalances and geopolitical tensions [5]. - The dry bulk shipping market is also showing resilience, with the BDI index rising by 21.9% week-on-week, driven by strong demand from Australia and Brazil [5]. Summary by Sections Shipbuilding Sector - Su Mei Da's Q4 net profit is projected at 2.5 billion, up 71% year-on-year, exceeding expectations [5]. - ST Songfa's Q4 net profit is estimated between 11-14 million, with a net profit margin of 14%, reflecting a 1.6 percentage point increase from Q3 [5]. - Attention is drawn to China Shipbuilding's upcoming full consolidation of assets and the release of high-priced orders in Q1 2026 [5]. Shipping Market - The report notes a continued upward trend in shipping rates, with VLCC rates increasing by 2.8% and Cape rates by 8.4% [5]. - The VLCC average rate rose by 16% week-on-week, reaching $122,326 per day, with Middle East to Far East rates dropping by 25% [5]. - The report highlights the impact of geopolitical tensions on oil transportation, particularly in the context of the Ukraine conflict [5]. Dry Bulk Shipping - The BDI index recorded a 21.9% increase, with Capesize rates rising by 35.8% to $31,809 per day [5]. - Strong demand from Australia and Brazil is noted, with limited supply contributing to higher rates [5]. Air Transportation - The report indicates a significant opportunity for airlines due to rising passenger volumes and historical high load factors, suggesting a potential "golden era" for the industry [5]. - Airlines such as China Eastern Airlines and Spring Airlines are highlighted as key players to watch [5]. Express Delivery - The report anticipates uncertainty in the express delivery sector due to fluctuating demand and industry self-regulation policies, but notes that leading companies like Zhongtong Express and YTO Express are expected to maintain their market share and profitability [5]. Rail and Road Transportation - Rail freight volumes and highway truck traffic are showing resilience, with recent data indicating a slight decline in volumes but overall stability [5]. - The report suggests that high dividend investment themes and potential value management catalysts in the highway sector are worth monitoring [5].

行 业 及 产 业 交通运输/ 航空机场 2026 年 01 月 30 日 相关研究 《航空"反内卷"初见成效——航空迎来 黄金时代系列报告》 2026/01/20 《景气度持续提升，从量变到质变—— 2025 下半年航空板块投资策略》 2025/06/12 《全球格局持续演变，静待我国航司迈入 成熟期——2025 航空及海外飞机制造链 年度策略》 2024/11/27 《航空出行渐入常态，再强调"国际+供 给"双主线——2024 航空机场中期策 略》 2024/06/14 《不同周期阶段的不同演绎，民航业东升 西降趋势确定-2024 航空机场投资展望》 2023/12/05 证券分析师 王凯婕 A0230525110001 wangkj@swsresearch.com 闫海 A0230519010004 yanhai@swsresearch.com 罗石 A0230524080012 luoshi@swsresearch.com 郑逸欢 A0230526010001 zhengyh@swsresearch.com 联系人 王凯婕 A0230525110001 wangkj@swsresearch.com 本 ...