智通财经APP获悉，国泰海通发布研报称，春运过半，截至2月22日(春运前21天)全社会人员流动量农历 同比增长6.0%，其中公路+6.0%，铁路+5.3%，航空+6.0%。2026年春运前21天，估算国内航司客座率 同比上升约1-2pct；估算国内裸票价(不含燃油附加费)同比上升约3-4%；考虑2026年2月航油价格同比下 降13%，估算国内扣油票价(含油票价扣除人均燃油成本)同比上升，意味着航司毛利率应同比提升。假 期二次出行旺盛，航司客座率创新高，票价同比升幅明显扩大，预计节后票价同比上升趋势有望继续向 好。 国泰海通主要观点如下： 2026年春运跟踪：春节假期客流增幅提升，航空客流增速继续居前 节后(2/24-3/13)：预计节后拼假效应亦将弱于往年，返程客流将较2025年同期相对集中。 航空客流：春运加班相对有限，其中春节假期客流增速较节前提升 2026年春运前21天，民航日均客运量约239万人，农历同比增长6.0%，增速符合局方预期。2026年春运 民航加班较为有限，且局方严控干线市场航司增加与客运增班。根据航班管家统计，春运前21天全国日 均实际客运执飞航班同比增长近5%，其中国内与国际航线增幅较 ...

春节假期出行旺盛，航空票价升幅扩大 [Table_Industry] 航空 ——2026 年"春运"系列报告之（四） | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 岳鑫(分析师) | 0755-23976758 | yuexin@gtht.com | S0880514030006 | | 陈亦凡(研究助理) | 0755-23976151 | chenyifan2@gtht.com | S0880124070025 | 本报告导读： 2026 年春运需求旺盛，航空客流增幅领跑，且客座率票价同比上升。其中，春节假 期票价升幅扩大，节后趋势或继续向好。叠加油价降低，料春运航司盈利同比改善。 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 航空《节前将现客流高峰，票价趋势有望向好》 2026.02.14 航空《春运客流逐步启动，官方预期再创新高》 2026.02.02 航空《航空春运预售启动，预计因私需求旺盛》 2026.01.23 航空《春运预售开始启动，预计需求保持旺盛》 2026.01.20 航空《预计元旦假期出游旺盛 ...

行 业 及 产 业 交通运输/ 航空机场 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 《为何现阶段我们仍看好航空？——航空 迎来黄金时代之周期持续性探讨》 2026/01/30 《航空"反内卷"初见成效——航空迎来 黄金时代系列报告》 2026/01/20 证券分析师 王凯婕 A0230525110001 wangkj@swsresearch.com 闫海 A0230519010004 yanhai@swsresearch.com 罗石 A0230524080012 luoshi@swsresearch.com 郑逸欢 A0230526010001 zhengyh@swsresearch.com 联系人 王凯婕 A0230525110001 wangkj@swsresearch.com 2026 年 02 月 24 日 节中航空量价超预期，飞机供应链 挑战依旧艰巨 看好 ——航空迎来黄金时代之 26 年春运点评 本期投资提示： ⚫ 风险提示：油汇大幅波动、经济增速不及预期、航空安全事故风险。 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the aviation industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [47]. Core Insights - The Spring Festival travel season has seen a record high in cross-regional personnel flow, with an estimated total of 5.08 billion trips in the first 20 days, averaging 250 million trips per day, which is a 5.6% increase compared to the same period in 2025 [9][10]. - The aviation sector has shown strong performance in both passenger volume and ticket prices, with a 5.4% year-on-year increase in passenger volume and a 3.3% increase in average ticket prices during the same period [10][11]. - The 2026 Spring Festival is characterized by two main trends: "secondary travel" and "concentrated return trips," driven by a later Spring Festival and longer holiday period [12][13]. Summary by Sections Passenger Volume and Pricing - In the first 20 days of the Spring Festival, the average daily passenger volume for civil aviation reached 2.376 million, a 5.4% increase year-on-year, while the average ticket price was 1003 yuan, up 3.3% year-on-year [10][11]. - The domestic average passenger load factor was 85.1%, reflecting a 1.1% increase year-on-year, indicating strong demand [11]. Market Dynamics - Six listed airlines collectively withdrew 5 aircraft in January 2026, indicating a tightening supply constraint in the industry [26]. - The report highlights that except for Spring Airlines, all other major airlines have shown negative year-on-year growth in capacity deployment, with Spring Airlines leading at 4.5% growth [26]. Demand and Future Outlook - The demand structure in the aviation industry is improving, with a rebound in business travel sentiment since September 2025 [34]. - The introduction of visa-free policies for Canada and the UK starting February 17, 2026, is expected to boost cross-border travel demand [34]. - High passenger load factors are anticipated to lead to increased price elasticity, with the potential for significant price increases in 2026 [35]. Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on major airlines such as Air China, China Southern Airlines, and China Eastern Airlines for potential elasticity release, as well as low-cost carrier Spring Airlines for its core competitive advantages [35].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the shipping industry, particularly focusing on oil transportation and shipbuilding sectors, recommending stocks such as ST Songfa and China Merchants Energy [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights a strong performance in oil shipping, with VLCC TCE rates rising by 24% to $146,385 per day, and a significant increase in demand leading to higher freight rates [4]. - The global energy chain's valuation is on the rise, driven by long-term capacity utilization and mid-cycle profit expectations, suggesting a favorable environment for shipping rates [4]. - The report emphasizes the resilience of the dry bulk market, with the BDI index recording a slight increase of 1.19% to 2,043 points, indicating stable demand despite seasonal fluctuations [5]. Summary by Sections Shipping Market Performance - The shipping index decreased by 1.41%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.77 percentage points, with the aviation sector experiencing the largest decline at -5.16% [5]. - The report notes that the coastal dry bulk freight index in China fell by 1.76%, while the Baltic Dry Index increased by 1.19% [5]. Oil Transportation - VLCC rates reached a new high of approximately $160,000 per day during the Spring Festival, with expectations for continued strength in the coming weeks [4]. - The report indicates that the average VLCC freight rate increased by 23% week-on-week, reaching $149,564 per day, reflecting tight capacity and strong demand [4]. Dry Bulk Market - The report mentions that the Capesize freight rate decreased by 4.1%, while the Panamax index showed resilience with a 3.5% increase [4]. - The report anticipates that post-holiday demand recovery will be crucial for the dry bulk market, particularly in iron ore shipments [4]. Air Transportation - The report suggests that the airline industry is at a turning point, with potential for significant profit growth due to increased passenger volumes and operational efficiencies [4]. - Airlines such as China Eastern Airlines and Spring Airlines are highlighted as key players to watch in this sector [4]. Express Delivery - The report notes uncertainties in the express delivery sector due to fluctuating demand and competitive pressures, but highlights the strong market position of leading companies like ZTO Express and YTO Express [4]. Rail and Road Transportation - Rail freight volumes and highway truck traffic are reported to be resilient, with the Ministry of Transport data showing a slight decrease in freight volume but overall stability [4]. - The report identifies two main investment themes in the highway sector: high dividend yields and potential value recovery in undervalued stocks [4].

吉祥航空(603885)日前公布2026年1月主要运营数据，2026年1月，公司客运运力投入同比下降7.84%， 其中国内、国际和地区航线客运运力投入同比变动分别为-3.49%、-16.09%和-39.44%；旅客周转量同比 下降6.04%，其中国内、国际和地区航线旅客周转量同比变动分别为-1.51%、-16.01%和-35.70%；客座 率为84.03%，同比上升1.61%，其中国内、国际和地区航线客座率同比变动分别为1.76%、0.07%和 4.99%。 值得一提的是，目前，吉祥航空控股股东均瑶集团及其一致行动人合计质押股份数量占其合计所持公司 股份数量比例超过60%。 根据吉祥航空2月12日公告，虽然其控股股东均瑶集团及其一致行动人均瑶投资将所持有公司的部分股 份办理了解除质押、质押及质押展期业务，但剩余被质押股份数量占其所持股份比例仍高达68.74%。 此外，公司第二大股东东航产投在2025年实施了多次减持。 根据公告，2025年10月15日至2025年10月21日，东航产投通过集中竞价交易方式累计减持公司股份 9,397,500股，占公司总股本的比例由13.35%减少至12.92%。 截至2026年 ...

《中国民航报》、中国民航网 记者胡夕姮 报道：农历丙午马年新春来临之际，吉祥航空以"跃马新春· 吉祥万里"为主题，全面启动系列春节特色活动。通过沉浸式主题航班、场景化新春装饰及数智化出行 服务，公司为旅客打造了从地面到空中、从视觉到体验的全流程"中国年"氛围，以传递温馨美好的新春 祝福。 为营造浓郁传统节日氛围，吉祥航空在值机区域、登机口、贵宾室及客舱等旅客全流程动线区域精心装 饰。值机柜台上，红色纸艺摆件与生肖马元素，呈现"开门见喜"的视觉仪式感；客舱内则通过定制祝福 窗花、新春主题壁板及灵动小马挂饰等细节装点，让旅客从踏入舱门起即沉浸于温馨祥和的节庆氛围之 中。 吉祥航空客舱内新春装饰 在地面服务端，吉祥航空虹桥V6、浦东86号国内及浦东72号国际三家"似锦"贵宾室同步换上新春装 饰，以红色基调与生肖元素营造年味候机空间。节日期间，贵宾室工作人员统一身着红色马甲，以热情 服务迎接往来旅客。为增添候机惊喜，虹桥V6及浦东国际72号贵宾室推出"新春扫码抽奖"活动，旅客 扫描二维码即可参与，奖品包括吉祥航空马年定制吉祥物"吉宝蹬蹬"玩偶、滑雪场体验票及航空积分等 多重好礼。 从地面到云端，从场景到服务，"跃马新 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the aviation sector, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by over 5% in the next 3-6 months [56]. Core Insights - The report highlights a strong demand for air travel during the Spring Festival, with a projected growth in passenger numbers of around 5% due to the recovery of international routes and increased domestic travel demand driven by service consumption [8]. - The report notes that the supply of aircraft is expected to grow at a compound rate of approximately 3% over the next three years, indicating a "hardcore" constraint on supply [8]. - High load factors are anticipated to lead to significant price elasticity, particularly for major airlines such as China National Aviation, Southern Airlines, and Eastern Airlines, which are expected to see a release of elasticity [8]. Monthly Data Analysis Overall Performance - In January, the overall ASK (Available Seat Kilometers) growth rates varied among airlines, with Spring Airlines leading at 4.5% growth, while Hainan Airlines saw a decline of 6.6% [1]. - RPK (Revenue Passenger Kilometers) growth also showed a similar trend, with Spring Airlines at 6.0% and Hainan Airlines at -4.4% [1]. Domestic Routes - For domestic routes in January, Spring Airlines had the highest ASK growth at 13.3%, while Hainan Airlines had the lowest at -8.5% [2]. - RPK growth for domestic routes was led by Spring Airlines at 14.4%, with Hainan Airlines again at the bottom with -6.3% [2]. International Routes - On international routes, Southern Airlines showed the highest ASK growth at 10.5%, while Spring Airlines experienced a decline of 20.8% [2]. - RPK growth on international routes was also led by Southern Airlines at 8.0%, with Spring Airlines again showing a significant decline of 19.5% [2]. Regional Routes - Spring Airlines led regional routes with an ASK growth of 41.6%, while the lowest was seen in 吉祥 Airlines at -39.4% [2]. - RPK growth for regional routes was similarly led by Spring Airlines at 40.7% [2]. Load Factor - In January, Spring Airlines achieved the highest load factor at 92.0%, with a year-on-year increase of 1.3 percentage points [3]. - The load factors for other airlines were as follows: Eastern Airlines at 85.0%, 吉祥 Airlines at 84.0%, and Southern Airlines at 83.3% [3]. Fleet Size - In January 2026, the six listed airlines collectively saw a net exit of 5 aircraft from their fleets [3].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the aviation industry [5]. Core Insights - The demand for civil aviation during the 2026 Spring Festival is expected to be strong, with limited additional flights, leading to a gradual narrowing of passenger growth rates. Ticket prices are anticipated to continue rising year-on-year during and after the holiday period. Coupled with lower oil prices, airline profitability is expected to improve significantly compared to the previous year [3][4]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The 2026 Spring Festival travel season officially began on February 2, with strong demand expected to set a new historical high for passenger flow. As of February 12, the overall flow of people increased by 2.3% year-on-year, with aviation leading at a growth rate of 5.4% [5][6]. Passenger Flow Analysis - Passenger flow for various transportation modes showed the following year-on-year growth rates: aviation at 5.4%, rail at 2.6%, and road at 2.2%. The first week of travel was impacted by adverse weather, but recovery was noted in the second week as conditions improved [5][6][8]. Airline Performance - Daily average passenger volume for civil aviation reached approximately 2.36 million, with a year-on-year increase of 5.4%. The growth rate is in line with expectations, although the limited number of additional flights may lead to a slight decrease in growth rates as the holiday approaches [5][8]. Ticket Pricing Trends - The report estimates that domestic load factors increased by about 1 percentage point year-on-year, with ticket prices (excluding fuel surcharges) rising by approximately 1-2%. Despite a 13% year-on-year decrease in jet fuel prices, the net ticket prices are expected to rise, indicating an improvement in airline gross margins [5][8]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates a "super cycle" for the Chinese aviation industry, driven by sustained demand growth and a shift towards market-driven pricing. The upcoming peak season is expected to significantly enhance airline profitability, with the first quarter of 2026 likely to see industry-wide profitability [5][8]. Recommended Stocks - The report recommends accumulating shares of key airlines, including Air China, Juneyao Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, and Spring Airlines, based on their expected performance and market conditions [5][13].

以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理，由AI算法生成（网信算备310104345710301240019号），不构成 投资建议。 吉祥航空(603885.SH)公告称，2026年1月，公司客运运力投入（按可用座位公里计）同比下降7.84%， 其中国内、国际和地区航线客运运力投入同比变动分别为-3.49%、-16.09%和-39.44%；旅客周转量（按 收入客公里计）同比下降6.04%，其中国内、国际和地区航线旅客周转量同比变动分别 为-1.51%、-16.01%和-35.70%；客座率为84.03%，同比上升1.61%，其中国内、国际和地区航线客座率 同比变动分别为1.76%、0.07%和4.99%。2026年1月，公司国内客运运力投入（按可用座位公里计）较 上月环比上升8.94%，国内旅客周转量（按收入客公里计）环比上升9.40%，国内航线客座率环比上升 0.37%。国际客运运力投入（按可用座位公里计）较上月环比下降2.07%，国际旅客周转量（按收入客 公里计）环比下降3.78%，国际航线客座率环比下降1.34%。 ...