Core Insights - The aviation industry is experiencing a steady increase in flight execution volume and passenger load factors, indicating a recovery in demand and potential for profitability improvement [1][2][5] Flight Volume and Passenger Load Factors - As of October 14, 2025, the daily flight execution volume in civil aviation is 15,539 flights, a 3.73% increase from 14,980 flights in the same period of 2024 [1][2] - Passenger load factors for July to September 2025 are 84.5%, 87.5%, and 85.8%, all exceeding the levels from the same period in 2019 [1][2] - The average passenger load factor for the three major airlines in September 2025 is 85.7%, up 5 percentage points from 2019 [2] Ticket Price Recovery - The average domestic economy class ticket price in September 2025 is 697 yuan, a 0.6% increase year-on-year, and a recovery from a 5% decrease compared to September 2019 [2] - During the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, the average domestic economy class ticket price is 849 yuan, reflecting a 0.3% increase year-on-year and a recovery from a 1.4% decrease compared to the same holiday in 2019 [2] International and Domestic Flight Growth - The average daily execution volume of international flights and flights to Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan is 2,154 flights, a significant increase of 16.70% year-on-year [3] - Domestic flight execution volume averages 13,885 flights per day, a 1.91% increase year-on-year [3] - By June 2025, international flight volumes have recovered to 88% of the levels seen in the same period of 2019 [3] Supply Constraints and Future Outlook - Global aircraft manufacturers are facing significant supply chain disruptions, leading to a slowdown in aircraft deliveries, with Boeing and Airbus expected to deliver 348 and 766 aircraft in 2024, respectively [4] - The expansion of aviation capacity is expected to remain constrained due to regulatory challenges and the aging fleet [4] Oil Price Trends and Competitive Landscape - International oil prices have been on a downward trend in 2025, which is beneficial for airline profitability due to reduced fuel costs [5] - The "anti-involution" policy initiated in June 2025 aims to address the issue of continuously declining ticket prices, with expectations for price recovery in the aviation sector [5] Investment Recommendations - The combination of low supply growth, recovering demand, and decreasing oil prices suggests a favorable environment for ticket price recovery and airline profitability [6] - Continuous monitoring of demand recovery, particularly in business travel and international flight resumption, is advised [6] - Recommended stocks for investment include Huaxia Airlines, Air China, China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, Juneyao Airlines, and Spring Airlines [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the airline transportation industry is "Positive" [2]. Core Viewpoints - The industry has maintained a high passenger load factor since the beginning of 2025, with domestic airlines focusing on low growth in capacity while increasing investment in international routes. The supply remains tight with a net fleet growth rate below 3%. The passenger load factor has improved year-on-year and compared to the same period in 2019, particularly in domestic routes. Domestic turnover has shown steady growth, while international turnover has significantly recovered to 2019 levels. Ticket prices have turned positive during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, with demand remaining robust. The fourth quarter is expected to see improvements in year-on-year comparisons due to a low base from the previous year, which will support the recovery of unit revenue for airlines [12][13][36]. Summary by Sections Investment Suggestions - The report suggests focusing on airlines such as China Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, Air China, Spring Airlines, and Juneyao Airlines due to the expected recovery in unit revenue and profitability [13][36]. Passenger Load Factor and Ticket Prices - The passenger load factor remains high, with the industry achieving a load factor of 87.5% in August 2025, up 0.6 percentage points year-on-year and 0.9 percentage points compared to 2019. Domestic turnover increased by 3.5% year-on-year, while international and regional routes have recovered to 100.4% of 2019 levels [15][19]. - Ticket prices have shown a positive trend, with the average domestic ticket price reaching 942 RMB during the National Day holiday, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of only 1.5%. The average ticket price for early October 2025 was up 2.2% year-on-year [4][23]. Oil Prices and Exchange Rates - The average aviation fuel price in October 2025 was 5572 RMB per ton, a slight decrease of 0.1% year-on-year. The Brent crude oil price has also decreased, with an average of 64.25 USD per barrel in October, down 16.7% year-on-year. The Chinese Yuan has appreciated against the US Dollar, with the exchange rate at 7.0968 RMB per USD as of October 16, 2025 [5][36][40]. Airline Operations and Fleet Growth - Airlines have continued to invest in international capacity, with domestic and international passenger load factors remaining high. In September 2025, the domestic load factor for major airlines showed significant year-on-year increases, with China Eastern Airlines leading with a 3.4 percentage point increase compared to 2019 [41][44]. - In terms of fleet growth, Air China had the highest net increase in aircraft in September 2025, adding 5 aircraft, while other airlines also showed modest growth [6][41].

Core Viewpoint - The aviation industry is experiencing a tightening supply-demand structure during the off-peak season, leading to an increase in ticket prices, driven by a recovery in domestic travel demand and improved supply dynamics [1][3][4]. Group 1: Demand and Pricing - Domestic business travel passenger volume has been steadily increasing since June, contributing to overall industry demand growth and higher ticket prices, as business travelers are less price-sensitive and often choose premium seating [2]. - Since the "Eleventh" holiday, domestic ticket prices have shown a year-on-year increase, reversing the decline seen in the first three quarters of the year, indicating a sustainable upward trend in pricing due to improved supply-demand conditions [1][4]. Group 2: Supply Dynamics - In September, as the aviation industry enters the off-peak season, airlines are grounding more aircraft for maintenance or reducing flight schedules, while travel volume continues to grow year-on-year, resulting in a tighter supply-demand balance [1][3]. - The industry is adjusting its strategies in response to market changes, focusing on revenue management to avoid excessive price competition, particularly among the three major airlines [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The industry supply-demand structure is expected to continue optimizing over the next few years, with an average annual growth rate of 3% in supply (ASK) projected from 2026 to 2028, while demand (RPK) is anticipated to maintain a growth rate of over 5% due to increasing travel population and economic recovery [5]. Group 4: Recommended Stocks - The company recommends China Eastern Airlines (00670) for H-shares and suggests Huaxia Airlines (002928.SZ), Juneyao Airlines (603885.SH), and Spring Airlines (601021.SH) for A-shares [6].

Core Viewpoint - The aviation and airport sector experienced a slight increase of 0.01% on October 16, with HNA Holding leading the gains. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3916.23, up 0.1%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13086.41, down 0.25 [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance - HNA Holding closed at 1.70, up 1.80%, with a trading volume of 7.57 million shares and a transaction value of 1.268 billion [1]. - China Eastern Airlines closed at 4.45, up 1.37%, with a trading volume of 1.857 million shares and a transaction value of 824 million [1]. - China Southern Airlines closed at 6.26, down 0.63%, with a trading volume of 801,400 shares and a transaction value of 505 million [1]. - Xiamen Airport closed at 14.61, down 0.20%, with a trading volume of 15,700 shares and a transaction value of 22.9132 million [1]. Group 2: Capital Flow - The aviation and airport sector saw a net inflow of 77.165 million from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 196 million. However, speculative funds experienced a net outflow of 273 million [2][3]. - China National Airlines had a net inflow of 126 million from institutional investors, representing 14.80% of its total capital flow [3]. - HNA Holding experienced a net inflow of 99.195 million from institutional investors, accounting for 7.82% of its total capital flow [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the aviation industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [4][7]. Core Insights - The aviation industry is experiencing a recovery, with September data showing a 4.6% year-on-year increase in passenger transport volume, reaching approximately 62.7 million passengers [4]. - Domestic capacity increased by 1.0% year-on-year, while domestic passenger flow grew by 3.6% [4]. - The average aircraft utilization rate in September was 7.8 hours per day, reflecting a 0.6% increase year-on-year [4]. - Airlines are increasing capacity, with passenger turnover growth outpacing capacity growth [4]. - The report highlights significant growth in low-cost carriers, particularly Spring Airlines, which saw a 21% increase in capacity [4]. - The international market is recovering, with some airlines exceeding pre-pandemic levels in flight frequency [4]. Summary by Sections September Data Overview - In September, the total passenger transport volume was approximately 62.7 million, a 4.6% increase from the previous year [4]. - Domestic capacity (ASK) for major airlines showed varied growth: China Eastern Airlines (+4%), Southern Airlines (+4%), and Spring Airlines (+21%) [4]. - The average passenger load factor for Spring Airlines was the highest at 91.8%, with a year-on-year increase of 1.3 percentage points [4]. Domestic Market Analysis - The domestic market is balanced in terms of supply and demand, with major airlines showing single-digit growth [4]. - Year-on-year changes in RPK for major airlines included: China Eastern Airlines (+6%), Southern Airlines (+4%), and Spring Airlines (+23%) [4]. International Market Analysis - The international market is seeing further recovery, with significant growth from Spring Airlines and China Eastern Airlines [4]. - Year-on-year changes in ASK compared to 2019 showed China Eastern Airlines (+5%) and Spring Airlines (+131%) [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the aviation industry is at a turning point, with airlines expected to see significant improvements in profitability [4]. - Recommended stocks include China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, Spring Airlines, and others, based on strong supply and demand dynamics [4][7].

2025年9月，公司客运运力投入（按可用座位公里计）同比上升1.91%，其中国内、国际和地区航线客 运运力投入同比变动分别为-5.57%、25.43%和-31.79%；旅客周转量（按收入客公里计）同比上升 4.85%，其中国内、国际和地区航线旅客周转量同比变动分别为-3.84%、37.10%和-24.94%；客座率为 86.07%，同比上升2.42%，其中国内、国际和地区航线客座率同比变动分别为1.61%、6.77%和7.90%。 | 后有 | 2025年9月 | 图比增长 | 哥亚家片 | )硬化增长 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 用力 | | | | | | 可用或公園(ATK)(万吨公園) | 56,857,93 | 5,53% | 215 098 54 | 5.60% | | 134 | 35,772,65 | -5.74% | 345,732×3 | SADDERT: | | 1775 | 20, 773,50 | 31 385 | 184,482,941 | 57.78% | | HECK | 321.78 | =32.28% | 3.883.19 | = ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the aviation transportation sector [6]. Core Viewpoints - The aviation sector is showing signs of recovery, with expectations for continued improvement in the fourth quarter and the medium to long term, driven by a rebound in business travel demand and a favorable pricing environment [1][4]. - The supply growth in the industry remains constrained, supporting long-term supply-demand improvements [3][4]. - The report recommends focusing on airlines with potential for sustained growth, specifically highlighting China National Aviation (H), Huaxia Airlines, and Spring Airlines as top picks [1][9]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - In September, the three major airlines (China Southern, China Eastern, and Air China) saw a slight slowdown in capacity growth at 3.0%, while passenger load factors increased by 2.7 percentage points to 85.6% [1]. - Spring Airlines experienced a significant capacity increase of 21.1%, maintaining a leading load factor of 91.8% [2]. Pricing and Revenue - Domestic ticket prices turned positive in September, increasing by 3.0% year-on-year, following a decline of 6.5% in July and August [1][4]. - The report anticipates that the improvement in revenue levels will continue into the fourth quarter, supported by a low base and effective revenue management by airlines [4]. Supply Constraints - As of September 2025, the total net addition of passenger aircraft among the major airlines was only 84, reflecting a growth of just 2.7% compared to the end of 2024 [3]. - The tightening of flight schedules is expected to persist, with a projected overall decrease of 1.6% in domestic flight slots for the upcoming winter-spring season [3]. Recommendations - The report emphasizes the potential for profitability in the aviation sector, particularly as oil prices decline, which may alleviate cost pressures for airlines [4]. - Specific stock recommendations include Huaxia Airlines (target price 13.65), Spring Airlines (target price 67.80), and China Southern Airlines (target price 7.35) [9][22].

截至2025年10月15日收盘，吉祥航空(603885)报收于14.05元，上涨6.76%，换手率1.79%，成交量39.13 万手，成交额5.39亿元。 以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理，由AI算法生成（网信算备310104345710301240019号），不构成 投资建议。 来自交易信息汇总：10月15日主力资金净流入6460.53万元，占总成交额11.98%。 来自公司公告汇总：吉祥航空2025年9月国际航线旅客周转量同比上升37.10%，客座率同比提升 2.42个百分点至86.07%。 10月15日主力资金净流入6460.53万元，占总成交额11.98%；游资资金净流出2302.26万元，占总成交额 4.27%；散户资金净流出4158.26万元，占总成交额7.71%。 公司公告汇总 上海吉祥航空股份有限公司2025年9月主要运营数据显示：客运运力投入（ASK）同比上升1.91%，其 中国内、国际和地区航线分别变动-5.57%、25.43%和-31.79%；旅客周转量（RPK）同比上升4.85%，其 中国内、国际和地区航线分别变动-3.84%、37.10%和-24.94%；客座率为86.07%，同比上 ...

截至2025年10月15日收盘，吉祥航空（603885）报收于14.05元，较前一交易日上涨6.76%，最新总市值 为306.85亿元。该股当日开盘13.27元，最高14.19元，最低13.13元，成交额达5.39亿元，换手率为 1.79%。 近日，上海吉祥航空股份有限公司发布2025年9月主要运营数据公告。公告显示，公司客运运力投入 （ASK）同比上升1.91%，其中国内、国际和地区航线分别变动-5.57%、25.43%和-31.79%；旅客周转量 （RPK）同比上升4.85%，其中国内、国际和地区航线分别变动-3.84%、37.10%和-24.94%；客座率为 86.07%，同比上升2.42个百分点。当月可用吨公里（ATK）为56,867.93万吨公里，同比增长5.53%；收 入吨公里（RTK）为39,485.14万吨公里，同比增长7.86%。货物及邮件载运量同比增长14.60%。国际航 线运力与载运量增长显著，国内航线环比下降。2025年9月公司未引进或退役飞机。截至9月底，公司共 运营93架A320系列和10架波音787系列飞机，子公司九元航空运营27架波音737系列飞机。机队合计130 架。以上数据 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share airport and aviation sector experienced a significant rise, with several airlines reporting positive operational data for September 2025, indicating a recovery in passenger traffic and capacity utilization [1][2]. Group 1: Airline Performance - China Southern Airlines reported a 4.43% year-on-year increase in passenger capacity input for September 2025, with a 5.25% rise in passenger turnover, and an overall seat occupancy rate of 86.30%, up 0.67 percentage points [1]. - Air China disclosed a 1.2% increase in passenger capacity input and a 5.6% rise in passenger turnover for September 2025, achieving an average seat occupancy rate of 83.2%, which is up 3.5 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - China Eastern Airlines noted a 3.63% increase in passenger capacity input and an 8.67% rise in passenger turnover for September 2025, with a seat occupancy rate of 87.57%, up 4.06 percentage points [2]. Group 2: Market Reaction - The A-share market saw a surge in the aviation sector, with Huaxia Airlines hitting the daily limit up, while China National Airlines and Shanghai Airlines rose over 6%, indicating strong investor confidence following the positive operational data [1].