格隆汇1月14日｜港交所文件显示，东鹏饮料通过港交所上市聆讯。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The beverage and dairy sector experienced a decline of 0.97% on January 14, with Dongpeng Beverage leading the drop, while the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4126.09, down 0.31% [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - The beverage and dairy sector saw a mixed performance among individual stocks, with notable gainers including: - Beiyinmei: Closed at 6.31, up 2.44% with a trading volume of 1.0334 million shares and a turnover of 647 million yuan [1]. - Zhuangyuan Pasture: Closed at 12.18, up 2.27% with a trading volume of 230,500 shares and a turnover of 276 million yuan [1]. - Conversely, Dongpeng Beverage led the decline, closing at 264.68, down 2.91% with a trading volume of 35,500 shares and a turnover of 943 million yuan [2]. Group 2: Capital Flow - The beverage and dairy sector experienced a net outflow of 68.37 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 133 million yuan [2]. - Individual stock capital flows showed: - Beiyinmei had a net inflow of 89.26 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors had a net outflow of 67.37 million yuan [3]. - Yili Group recorded a net inflow of 55.39 million yuan from institutional investors, with retail investors showing a net outflow of 1.15 million yuan [3].

Core Insights - The overall sales performance of offline channels in the food and beverage sector is under pressure for the period of January to December 2025, with notable differentiation in the soft drink industry across various segments [1] - Functional beverages and ready-to-drink juices are maintaining high single-digit growth, while the snack food category shows strong growth in konjac products and healthy snacks [1] Beverage Sector - Beer sales are under pressure with a year-on-year decline of 6.7% in sales for January to December 2025, although average prices continue to rise [2] - Ready-to-drink cocktails have seen a cumulative year-on-year sales decline of 9.9%, while the market share of the brand Rio remains stable [2] - The soft drink industry shows varied performance across segments, with functional beverages experiencing a year-on-year sales increase of 9.3% and ready-to-drink juices seeing an average price increase of 7.8% [2] Dairy Products - The demand for dairy products continues to face pressure, although there is a quarter-on-quarter improvement in Q4 2025 [2] - Leading dairy companies are performing relatively well in the low-temperature yogurt segment, which is positively impacting overall yogurt performance compared to the broader dairy market [2] Condiments and Snacks - Basic condiments prioritize price, with leading brands continuing to capture market share [3] - The performance of spicy snack foods shows significant differentiation, with konjac products and certain specialty items providing crucial support [3] - Healthy snacks are experiencing notable growth, while the nut and dried fruit category is under pressure due to the timing of the Spring Festival affecting December sales [3] - Sweet snacks are generally underperforming, with widespread year-on-year declines [3] Frozen Foods - Hot pot ingredients are showing a trend of volume growth with stable prices, while competition remains fierce in the frozen dumpling and tangyuan markets [3] - By December 2025, the frozen food sector enters a peak stocking phase, with hot pot ingredients, frozen prepared foods, and frozen snacks achieving year-on-year growth, while frozen dumplings and tangyuan continue to face pressure [3] Recommendations - Recommended stocks in the A-share market include Anjuke Food, Yanjinpuzi, New Dairy, Ximai Food, Yanjing Beer, Dongpeng Beverage, Yili Group, Qianhe Flavor, and Haitian Flavor [4] - Recommended stocks in the H-share market include Weilong, Gu Ming, Master Kong, Uni-President China, Nongfu Spring, China Resources Beer, Mengniu Dairy, and Qingdao Beer [4]

Group 1 - Dongpeng Beverage's stock price fell by 2.91% on January 14, closing at 264.68 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 943 million yuan and a turnover rate of 0.68%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 137.637 billion yuan [1] - The stock has experienced a continuous decline for four consecutive days, with a cumulative drop of 5.09% during this period [1] - Dongpeng Beverage's main business includes the research, production, and sales of beverages, with revenue composition as follows: energy drinks 77.87%, electrolyte drinks 13.90%, other beverages 8.17%, and others 0.06% [1] Group 2 - The Guoshou Anbao Fund has a significant holding in Dongpeng Beverage, specifically in the Guoshou Anbao Quality Consumption Stock Initiation A Fund (020140), which increased its holdings by 200 shares to a total of 1,300 shares, representing 4.08% of the fund's net value [2] - The fund has incurred a floating loss of approximately 10,300 yuan today, with a total floating loss of 18,400 yuan during the four-day decline [2] - The Guoshou Anbao Quality Consumption Stock Initiation A Fund was established on December 7, 2023, with a latest scale of 9.3226 million yuan, and has achieved a year-to-date return of 6.31%, ranking 2017 out of 5520 in its category [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the importance of policies aimed at boosting consumption, highlighting the collaboration between business and financial sectors to enhance consumer spending [1][2] - The China Securities Major Consumption Index, which focuses on the consumption sector, has an average free float market capitalization exceeding 600 billion yuan, reflecting the overall performance of major consumption stocks in the A-share market [2][3] - The index includes 38 sample stocks, with a free float market capitalization ranging from 36.47 billion yuan to 8,885.48 billion yuan, indicating significant growth potential in the consumption sector [2][4] Group 2 - The index is heavily concentrated in the food and beverage sector, with a weight of 67.62%, and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery at 28.42%, together covering over 96% of the index's weight [4][5] - The top ten stocks in the index are supported by leading companies such as Kweichow Moutai, Yili, and Wuliangye, which have strong brand recognition and stable cash flows [5][6] - The ongoing policy support for consumption is expected to enhance the long-term value and growth potential of the consumption sector, making the China Securities Major Consumption Index a quality benchmark for investing in core consumption assets [7]

国盛证券研报指出，东鹏饮料25年圆满收官，26年继续突破。预计全年实现归母净利润43.4至45.9亿 元，同比+30.46%至+37.97%，Q4预计实现归母净利润5.79至8.29亿元，同比-6.5%至+33.9%，中值为 7.04亿元，同比+13.7%；Q4淡季平稳过渡，业绩稳健增长。多品类势能强劲，积极开拓海外市场。功 能饮料作为饮料板块增长最快的子赛道，随着消费人群、场景持续拓圈，行业空间广阔，东鹏有望凭借 产品性价比、数字化方面优势持续强化龙头地位。在传统大单品东鹏特饮的基础上，积极布局东鹏补水 啦、果之茶等第二产品曲线，势头强劲。此外，港股上市有助于公司积极拓展海外市场，有望带来新的 市场增量空间，基于此，预计公司2025-2027年归母净利润分别同比+32.7%/+23.4%/+20.1%至 44.2/54.5/65.5亿元，维持"买入"评级。 ...

文 | 老鱼儿 编辑 | 杨旭然 作为A股市场"功能饮料第一股"，东鹏饮料的经营势头一直很好。 1月13日，东鹏饮料公告，其预计2025年度实现归属于母公司所有者的净利润在43.4亿元到45.9亿元之间，同比增幅为30.46%到37.97%。 根据这个数据粗略计算，从2017年到2025年这9年里，东鹏饮料累计净利润超140亿元，用"赚得盆满钵溢"来形容并不为过。 虽然"数钱到手软"，东鹏饮料想要的还有更多。2025年4月和10月，东鹏饮料两次向香港联交所递交了发行境外上市外资股（H股）的申请。 根据招股书，东鹏饮料明确将把募集资金用于七大方向：完善产能布局与供应链升级、加强品牌建设与消费者互动、推进全国化战略与渠道精细化运营、 拓展海外市场与探索并购、深化各环节数字化建设、增强产品开发与品类拓展能力，以及补充营运资金与一般企业用途。 整体上看，除了拓展海外市场之外，其他六大方向都有些语焉不详。 一边是充沛的盈利能力，一边是急着赴港融资"补血"，监管层和投资者显然对此会产生疑问：东鹏饮料真的缺钱吗？二次上市所融得的资金，究竟要被拿 去做什么？ 借钱+理财 若单看业绩数据，东鹏饮料的增长势头足以让同行羡慕。 2 ...

Group 1: Company Leadership Changes - Zhang Yong has returned to the CEO position of Haidilao, effective January 13, 2026, following the resignation of Guo Yiqun as CEO [1] - Zhang Yong previously handed over the CEO role to Yang Lijuan in March 2022, and Guo Yiqun took over in June 2024 [1] - The leadership change comes as Haidilao faces performance challenges, with a 3.0% year-on-year revenue decline to 20.703 billion yuan and a 13.7% drop in net profit to 1.755 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 [1] Group 2: Industry Context - The Chinese restaurant industry is experiencing a slowdown, with revenue growth decelerating, profits declining, and competition intensifying, as reported by the China Cuisine Association [1] - Competitors like Xiaobai Xiaobai reported an 18.88% revenue decline to 1.942 billion yuan and a net loss of 84 million yuan in the same period [1] Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - Zhang Yong's return is linked to the "Pomegranate Plan," a multi-brand incubation strategy launched in August 2024, aimed at creating a second growth curve for Haidilao [2] - As of June 2025, the "Pomegranate Plan" has incubated 14 restaurant brands, generating a 227% year-on-year revenue increase to 600 million yuan from related businesses [2] - The company is at a critical transformation juncture, with Zhang Yong becoming more involved in operational details [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Insights - The company expects a revenue increase of 31.07% to 33.34% year-on-year for 2025, projecting total revenue between 20.76 billion to 21.12 billion yuan. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise by 30.46% to 37.97%, with estimates ranging from 4.34 billion to 4.59 billion yuan [1] - The company continues to focus on "sales-driven operations" and is advancing its national strategy through refined channel management, enhancing channel operation capabilities, and increasing product exposure to drive terminal sales. It aims to solidify its two main product lines while exploring multi-category development to foster new growth points [2] - The functional beverage sector is identified as the fastest-growing sub-sector within the beverage industry, with significant market potential. The company is expected to leverage its product cost-effectiveness and digital advantages to strengthen its leading position [2] Financial Summary - For 2025, the company anticipates revenue of 20.972 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 32.4%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected at 4.416 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 32.7% [4] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 8.49 yuan, with a projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 32.1 [4] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to be 41.1% in 2025, indicating strong profitability [4]

Core Viewpoint - Dongpeng Beverage is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company between 4.34 billion and 4.59 billion yuan for the year 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 30.46% to 37.97% [1][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The projected net profit for 2025 is between 4.34 billion and 4.59 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 30.46% to 37.97% compared to the previous year [1]. - The company continues to focus on "sales-driven management" and is advancing its national strategy [3]. Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - Dongpeng Beverage is enhancing channel management and operational capabilities to boost product visibility and drive sales at the terminal level [3]. - The company is solidifying its two main product categories, Dongpeng Special Drink and Dongpeng Hydration, while actively exploring multi-category development to cultivate new growth points [3]. Group 3: Corporate Governance - Dongpeng Beverage is in the process of preparing for an IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [3]. - The company appointed Zhan Honghui as the secretary of the board, with his term starting from the date of the board's approval [3].