消息方面，北京表示要大力发展高精尖产业。巩固壮大实体经济根基，推动集成电路重点项目扩产量 产，高水平建设国际医药创新公园，全生态链推进绿色先进能源、新能源汽车、机器人、商业航天等重 点项目。加快建设全球数字经济标杆城市，全面实施"人工智能+"行动，建设国家人工智能应用中试基 地。推进未来产业先导区建设，培育6G、量子科技、生物制造等新增长点，推动传统产业提质升级， 促进制造业数智化转型。 兴业证券认为，流动性充裕是支撑本轮春季行情向上的核心驱动力，背后来源于险资"开门红"支撑新增 保费入市、居民存款集中到期与人民币升值吸引的境外资金回流。流动性充裕的环境中，偏暖的基本面 和政策为市场风险偏好形成托底，从而资金对于各类宏观和产业层面的叙事做出积极响应，推动赚钱效 应不断扩散，或将成为本轮春季行情结构上的一个重要特征。 随着A股上市公司年报预告进入披露高峰，叠加北美科技巨头财报集中披露，业绩对结构的影响或将更 加显著，继续聚焦基本面挖掘亮点。结合年报业绩预告线索与近期盈利预期边际上修情况，当前业绩具 备亮点且本轮涨幅偏低的行业主要集中在AI硬件（北美算力、消费电子）、电池、医药、钢铁、非银 等。 随着市场热点轮动 ...

Group 1 - The Shanghai Stock Exchange Sci-Tech Innovation Board Chip Index fell by 1.14% as of January 26, 2026, with mixed performance among constituent stocks, where Chipone Technology led with a 10.01% increase [1] - Samsung Electronics has raised the price of its NAND flash memory by more than 100% in the first quarter of this year, significantly exceeding market expectations, and is currently negotiating a new round of NAND pricing with clients for the second quarter, with expectations of continued price increases [1] - Zhongshan Securities forecasts that the AI-related industry will maintain a favorable outlook in 2026, with accelerated domestic production expected to create opportunities in the domestic semiconductor industry, and predicts over 40% growth in capital expenditure from cloud computing giants [1] Group 2 - The top ten weighted stocks in the Shanghai Stock Exchange Sci-Tech Innovation Board Chip Index as of December 31, 2025, include SMIC, Haiguang Information, Cambricon, and others, accounting for a total of 57.76% of the index [1] - The Sci-Tech Chip ETF (588200) tracks the Shanghai Stock Exchange Sci-Tech Innovation Board Chip Index, serving as a convenient tool for investing in the chip sector [2] - Investors without stock accounts can access investment opportunities in domestic chips through the Sci-Tech Chip ETF linked fund (017470) [3]

Summary of the Conference Call for XinYuan Co., Ltd. Company Overview - XinYuan Co., Ltd. reported a revenue of 3.153 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 35.81% [2][5] - The company focuses on semiconductor IP licensing and ASIC custom chip services, with IP licensing accounting for approximately one-third of total revenue [3][5] - The company employs over 2,000 staff, with 89% in R&D, and has established 9 R&D centers and 11 sales offices globally [3] Financial Performance - Revenue growth was driven by a 73.98% increase in volume business and over 95% growth in the data processing sector, which accounted for about 34% of total revenue [2][5] - New orders totaled 5.961 billion yuan in 2025, a 103.41% increase year-on-year, with a backlog of 5.075 billion yuan at year-end, expected to convert over 80% within a year [2][6] - Despite a loss of 449 million yuan in 2025, the loss narrowed by over 25% compared to the previous year, indicating potential for improved profitability due to scale effects [2][7] Business Strategy and Market Position - The company maintains a leading position in the semiconductor IP field, competing with firms like ARM, but offers a diverse range of products with unique advantages [2][13] - XinYuan is actively expanding its cloud computing market presence and increasing R&D investment in end-device technologies, particularly for smartphones and tablets [2][14] - The company emphasizes business growth and market share over short-term profitability, focusing on long-term strategies [2][11][12] Product Development and Innovation - Smart glasses and AR technology are key future development areas, with sales reaching 1.78 million units in the first three quarters of the year [2][15] - The company has developed advanced process technologies, with nearly 70% of production using processes of 7nm or more, including successful development of a 5nm automotive chip [2][4][28] Challenges and Opportunities - The smart glasses market faces challenges such as technology uncertainty, design, and user experience, but also presents significant opportunities for growth if these issues are addressed [2][17] - Collaboration with Google on open-source projects is expected to accelerate technological innovation and industry development [2][18][19] Future Outlook - The founder anticipates stable revenue growth in 2026 and 2027, supported by a strong order backlog [2][8] - The company is exploring new market opportunities while ensuring existing product production progresses [2][24] - Long-term investments in emerging markets like AR glasses and phones are expected to drive future growth and profitability [2][30][31] Conclusion - XinYuan Co., Ltd. is positioned for significant growth in the semiconductor industry, with a strong focus on R&D, innovative product development, and strategic market expansion, despite current financial losses. The company's long-term vision and commitment to technology leadership are expected to yield positive results in the coming years.

今日截至10:23，科创人工智能 ETF(589010)呈现高开冲高回落走势，早盘冲高至2.11%的日内高点后震 荡下行，翻绿走弱，最新价报 1.650 元，较开盘价回落 0.302%。持仓层面，该 ETF 跟踪的 30 只成分股 呈现普跌格局，27 只个股走跌，其中中科星图领跌超9%；仅 3 只个股逆势走强，芯原股份涨超 11%， 优刻得涨超 9%，澜起科技涨超 5%。流动性方面，成交额达 8058 万元，换手率 2.99%，成交活跃度维 持相对高位。 消息方面，芯原股份2025年净亏损4.49亿元，亏损收窄25.29%；全年新签订单59.60亿元同比增 103.41%，单季度订单三次破历史新高，AI算力相关订单占比超73%。年末在手订单50.75亿元大幅增 长，其中量产业务订单超30亿元，近80%预计一年内转化，为未来盈利能力提升奠定基础。 国盛证券表示，芯原股份25Q4新签订单24.94亿元创历史新高，AI算力相关订单占比超84%，得益于一 站式定制化业务与领先IP优势及大客户认可。公司预计2025-2027年营收、归母净利润持续增长，我们 认为公司凭借丰富的流片经验、大客户的示范效应、领先的IP积累有 ...

Group 1 - The stock price of Chip Origin Co., Ltd. reached a historical high, increasing by 9.68% to 226.60 yuan, with a trading volume of 2.8561 million shares and a transaction value of 633 million yuan [2] - The total market capitalization of the company in A-shares is 119.159 billion yuan, with the same amount for the circulating market capitalization [2] - In the electronic industry, the overall increase is 0.21%, with 212 stocks rising, including Chip Origin, which has the highest increase [2] Group 2 - The latest margin trading data shows that the margin balance for Chip Origin is 2.895 billion yuan, with a financing balance of 2.884 billion yuan, reflecting a recent increase of 297 million yuan, or 11.48% [2] - The company reported a revenue of 2.255 billion yuan for the first three quarters, representing a year-on-year growth of 36.64%, while the net profit was -347 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 12.42% [2] - On January 24, the company released a profit forecast for 2025, expecting a net profit of -449 million yuan, which is a year-on-year increase of 25.29% [3]

Core Insights - The semiconductor industry is experiencing significant growth driven by the demand for artificial intelligence, with many companies projecting strong earnings for 2025 [1][2][3][4]. Industry Performance - The semiconductor market is recovering globally, with companies like ShenGong Co. expecting a net profit of 90 million to 110 million yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 118.71% to 167.31% [2]. - Shannon Chip expects a net profit of 480 million to 620 million yuan for 2025, with a growth rate of 81.77% to 134.78%, driven by increased demand for enterprise-level storage products due to the rise of generative AI [3]. - Zhongwei Company anticipates a revenue of approximately 12.385 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of about 36.62%, and a net profit of 2.08 billion to 2.18 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 28.74% to 34.93% [4]. R&D Driven Growth - Companies are increasing R&D investments to support growth, with Allwinner Technology projecting a net profit of 251 million to 295 million yuan for 2025, a growth of 50.53% to 76.92% [5]. - Juchip Technology expects a revenue of 922 million yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 41.44%, and a net profit of 204 million yuan, up 91.40% [6]. Institutional Focus on Sustainability - Institutions are closely monitoring semiconductor companies for their AI-related orders and earnings sustainability, with companies like Chip Origin reporting a record new orders of 2.494 billion yuan in Q4 2025, with over 84% related to AI computing [7]. - Companies are also providing products for AI servers and humanoid robots, indicating a broadening application of semiconductor technologies in various sectors [7]. Industrial AI Development - The domestic industrial AI sector is expected to accelerate, with advancements in AI applications across design, manufacturing, and management processes, as reported by Shanxi Securities [8].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - The electronic industry index experienced a weekly change of +1.58%, with semiconductors rising by 2.7% and consumer electronics declining by 1.4% [4] - TSMC plans to build four advanced packaging facilities to enhance backend capacity, driven by strong demand for AI [6] - The AI hardware market is expected to see a surge in product launches, including OpenAI's AI audio headphones with projected shipments of 40-50 million units in the first year [5] Market Review - The semiconductor sector is witnessing a significant increase in demand, with TSMC's 3nm capacity fully booked until 2027 due to AI demand [6] - Major storage companies are entering a price increase cycle as they face unprecedented chip shortages, with Micron indicating that its HBM orders for 2026 are already filled [5] - The import value of key semiconductor equipment in China reached 15.5 billion yuan in December 2025, marking a 244% month-on-month increase [6] Industry Developments - AI infrastructure is rapidly developing, with domestic GPU manufacturers accelerating their self-sufficiency processes [5] - Companies like SK Hynix and Kioxia have reported that their chip and flash memory production capacities for 2026 are already sold out, exacerbating NAND supply pressures [5] - The Nasdaq index saw a slight decline of 0.06% this week, while notable gains were observed in companies like SanDisk (+14.56%) and AMD (+12.01%) [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing significant growth in AI and data processing chip demand, with a backlog of orders exceeding 5 billion yuan [1][6]. - In 2025, the company expects revenue of 3.153 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 35.8%, and a narrowing of net loss to 449 million yuan [6]. - The company signed new orders totaling 5.96 billion yuan in 2025, with over 73% related to AI computing and over 50% in data processing [6]. - The company is positioned as the largest domestic and eighth largest global design IP vendor, with a diverse portfolio of over 1600 IPs [6]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue projections for 2025 are set at 3,153 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 35.8% [6]. - The company anticipates a net profit of -449 million yuan for 2025, improving from -601 million yuan in 2024 [6]. - The gross margin is expected to be 37.5% in 2025, with a projected decline to 30.9% by 2026 [6]. - The return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to improve from -12.7% in 2025 to 9.1% in 2027 [6]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The semiconductor design IP market is projected to grow to 8.5 billion USD in 2024, with the top four companies holding a 75% market share [6]. - The company is expected to benefit from scale effects and channel advantages, which will enhance profit elasticity [6]. - The average price-to-sales (PS) ratio for comparable companies is 31 times for 2026, compared to the company's 18 times, indicating a potential undervaluation [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Insights - The company has a strong order backlog exceeding 5 billion yuan, driven by demand for AI and data processing chips [1] - Revenue for 2025 is projected at 3.153 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 35.8%, while the net profit is expected to narrow to -449 million yuan [8] - The company has signed new orders amounting to 5.96 billion yuan in 2025, with over 73% related to AI computing and over 50% in data processing [8] - The company ranks as the largest domestic and eighth largest global design IP vendor, with a diverse portfolio of over 1600 IPs [8] - The report adjusts revenue forecasts for 2025 from 3.35 billion yuan to 3.153 billion yuan, while maintaining projections for 2026 and 2027 at 6.104 billion yuan and 8.525 billion yuan respectively [8] Financial Data and Profitability Forecast - Total revenue is expected to grow from 2.322 billion yuan in 2024 to 6.104 billion yuan in 2026, with a significant increase in net profit projected for 2027 at 337 million yuan [7][10] - The gross margin is forecasted to decline from 39.9% in 2024 to 30.9% in 2026, indicating potential pressure on profitability [7] - The company's return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from -28.3% in 2023 to 9.1% in 2027, reflecting a recovery in profitability [7]

本文所载 2025 年业绩数据，均为笔者根据上市公司 2026 年 1 月在上交所、深交所官网披露的业绩预告 / 业绩快报整理而来。重要说明：数据未经审计核验，最终结果以公司正式年报为准。 按股票代码升序排列 | 项目 | 本报告期 | 上年同期 | | --- | --- | --- | | 归属于上市公司 股东的净利润 | 盈利:65,000万元 -80,000万元 | 盈利:35.055.37 万 元 | | | 比上年同期增长:85.42% - 128.21% | | | 扣除非经常性损 益后的净利润 | 盈利:63,000万元 -78,000万元 | 盈利:30,269.81 万 元 | | | 比上年同期增长:108.13% - 157.68% | | | 营业收入 | 金额: 1,030,000万元 -1,130,000 万元 | 金额:477,254.63万 元 | | | 比上年同期增长:115.82% - 136.77% | | | 基本每股收益 | 盈利:2.91元/股 -3.58元/股 | 盈利: 1.70元/股 | 德明利（001309） 通富微电（002156） 证券代码:0021 ...