今日截至10:23，科创人工智能 ETF(589010)呈现高开冲高回落走势，早盘冲高至2.11%的日内高点后震 荡下行，翻绿走弱，最新价报 1.650 元，较开盘价回落 0.302%。持仓层面，该 ETF 跟踪的 30 只成分股 呈现普跌格局，27 只个股走跌，其中中科星图领跌超9%；仅 3 只个股逆势走强，芯原股份涨超 11%， 优刻得涨超 9%，澜起科技涨超 5%。流动性方面，成交额达 8058 万元，换手率 2.99%，成交活跃度维 持相对高位。 消息方面，芯原股份2025年净亏损4.49亿元，亏损收窄25.29%；全年新签订单59.60亿元同比增 103.41%，单季度订单三次破历史新高，AI算力相关订单占比超73%。年末在手订单50.75亿元大幅增 长，其中量产业务订单超30亿元，近80%预计一年内转化，为未来盈利能力提升奠定基础。 国盛证券表示，芯原股份25Q4新签订单24.94亿元创历史新高，AI算力相关订单占比超84%，得益于一 站式定制化业务与领先IP优势及大客户认可。公司预计2025-2027年营收、归母净利润持续增长，我们 认为公司凭借丰富的流片经验、大客户的示范效应、领先的IP积累有 ...

Group 1 - The stock price of Chip Origin Co., Ltd. reached a historical high, increasing by 9.68% to 226.60 yuan, with a trading volume of 2.8561 million shares and a transaction value of 633 million yuan [2] - The total market capitalization of the company in A-shares is 119.159 billion yuan, with the same amount for the circulating market capitalization [2] - In the electronic industry, the overall increase is 0.21%, with 212 stocks rising, including Chip Origin, which has the highest increase [2] Group 2 - The latest margin trading data shows that the margin balance for Chip Origin is 2.895 billion yuan, with a financing balance of 2.884 billion yuan, reflecting a recent increase of 297 million yuan, or 11.48% [2] - The company reported a revenue of 2.255 billion yuan for the first three quarters, representing a year-on-year growth of 36.64%, while the net profit was -347 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 12.42% [2] - On January 24, the company released a profit forecast for 2025, expecting a net profit of -449 million yuan, which is a year-on-year increase of 25.29% [3]

Core Insights - The semiconductor industry is experiencing significant growth driven by the demand for artificial intelligence, with many companies projecting strong earnings for 2025 [1][2][3][4]. Industry Performance - The semiconductor market is recovering globally, with companies like ShenGong Co. expecting a net profit of 90 million to 110 million yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 118.71% to 167.31% [2]. - Shannon Chip expects a net profit of 480 million to 620 million yuan for 2025, with a growth rate of 81.77% to 134.78%, driven by increased demand for enterprise-level storage products due to the rise of generative AI [3]. - Zhongwei Company anticipates a revenue of approximately 12.385 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of about 36.62%, and a net profit of 2.08 billion to 2.18 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 28.74% to 34.93% [4]. R&D Driven Growth - Companies are increasing R&D investments to support growth, with Allwinner Technology projecting a net profit of 251 million to 295 million yuan for 2025, a growth of 50.53% to 76.92% [5]. - Juchip Technology expects a revenue of 922 million yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 41.44%, and a net profit of 204 million yuan, up 91.40% [6]. Institutional Focus on Sustainability - Institutions are closely monitoring semiconductor companies for their AI-related orders and earnings sustainability, with companies like Chip Origin reporting a record new orders of 2.494 billion yuan in Q4 2025, with over 84% related to AI computing [7]. - Companies are also providing products for AI servers and humanoid robots, indicating a broadening application of semiconductor technologies in various sectors [7]. Industrial AI Development - The domestic industrial AI sector is expected to accelerate, with advancements in AI applications across design, manufacturing, and management processes, as reported by Shanxi Securities [8].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - The electronic industry index experienced a weekly change of +1.58%, with semiconductors rising by 2.7% and consumer electronics declining by 1.4% [4] - TSMC plans to build four advanced packaging facilities to enhance backend capacity, driven by strong demand for AI [6] - The AI hardware market is expected to see a surge in product launches, including OpenAI's AI audio headphones with projected shipments of 40-50 million units in the first year [5] Market Review - The semiconductor sector is witnessing a significant increase in demand, with TSMC's 3nm capacity fully booked until 2027 due to AI demand [6] - Major storage companies are entering a price increase cycle as they face unprecedented chip shortages, with Micron indicating that its HBM orders for 2026 are already filled [5] - The import value of key semiconductor equipment in China reached 15.5 billion yuan in December 2025, marking a 244% month-on-month increase [6] Industry Developments - AI infrastructure is rapidly developing, with domestic GPU manufacturers accelerating their self-sufficiency processes [5] - Companies like SK Hynix and Kioxia have reported that their chip and flash memory production capacities for 2026 are already sold out, exacerbating NAND supply pressures [5] - The Nasdaq index saw a slight decline of 0.06% this week, while notable gains were observed in companies like SanDisk (+14.56%) and AMD (+12.01%) [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing significant growth in AI and data processing chip demand, with a backlog of orders exceeding 5 billion yuan [1][6]. - In 2025, the company expects revenue of 3.153 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 35.8%, and a narrowing of net loss to 449 million yuan [6]. - The company signed new orders totaling 5.96 billion yuan in 2025, with over 73% related to AI computing and over 50% in data processing [6]. - The company is positioned as the largest domestic and eighth largest global design IP vendor, with a diverse portfolio of over 1600 IPs [6]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue projections for 2025 are set at 3,153 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 35.8% [6]. - The company anticipates a net profit of -449 million yuan for 2025, improving from -601 million yuan in 2024 [6]. - The gross margin is expected to be 37.5% in 2025, with a projected decline to 30.9% by 2026 [6]. - The return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to improve from -12.7% in 2025 to 9.1% in 2027 [6]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The semiconductor design IP market is projected to grow to 8.5 billion USD in 2024, with the top four companies holding a 75% market share [6]. - The company is expected to benefit from scale effects and channel advantages, which will enhance profit elasticity [6]. - The average price-to-sales (PS) ratio for comparable companies is 31 times for 2026, compared to the company's 18 times, indicating a potential undervaluation [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Insights - The company has a strong order backlog exceeding 5 billion yuan, driven by demand for AI and data processing chips [1] - Revenue for 2025 is projected at 3.153 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 35.8%, while the net profit is expected to narrow to -449 million yuan [8] - The company has signed new orders amounting to 5.96 billion yuan in 2025, with over 73% related to AI computing and over 50% in data processing [8] - The company ranks as the largest domestic and eighth largest global design IP vendor, with a diverse portfolio of over 1600 IPs [8] - The report adjusts revenue forecasts for 2025 from 3.35 billion yuan to 3.153 billion yuan, while maintaining projections for 2026 and 2027 at 6.104 billion yuan and 8.525 billion yuan respectively [8] Financial Data and Profitability Forecast - Total revenue is expected to grow from 2.322 billion yuan in 2024 to 6.104 billion yuan in 2026, with a significant increase in net profit projected for 2027 at 337 million yuan [7][10] - The gross margin is forecasted to decline from 39.9% in 2024 to 30.9% in 2026, indicating potential pressure on profitability [7] - The company's return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from -28.3% in 2023 to 9.1% in 2027, reflecting a recovery in profitability [7]

本文所载 2025 年业绩数据，均为笔者根据上市公司 2026 年 1 月在上交所、深交所官网披露的业绩预告 / 业绩快报整理而来。重要说明：数据未经审计核验，最终结果以公司正式年报为准。 按股票代码升序排列 | 项目 | 本报告期 | 上年同期 | | --- | --- | --- | | 归属于上市公司 股东的净利润 | 盈利:65,000万元 -80,000万元 | 盈利:35.055.37 万 元 | | | 比上年同期增长:85.42% - 128.21% | | | 扣除非经常性损 益后的净利润 | 盈利:63,000万元 -78,000万元 | 盈利:30,269.81 万 元 | | | 比上年同期增长:108.13% - 157.68% | | | 营业收入 | 金额: 1,030,000万元 -1,130,000 万元 | 金额:477,254.63万 元 | | | 比上年同期增长:115.82% - 136.77% | | | 基本每股收益 | 盈利:2.91元/股 -3.58元/股 | 盈利: 1.70元/股 | 德明利（001309） 通富微电（002156） 证券代码:0021 ...

经济观察网芯原股份公告，预计2025年度实现营业收入约31.53亿元，较2024年度增长35.81%；预计实 现归属于母公司所有者的净利润约-4.49亿元，与上年同期相比，亏损收窄1.52亿元，收窄比例为 25.29%；预计实现归属于母公司所有者扣除非经常性损益后净利润约-6.27亿元，与上年同期相比，亏 损收窄0.16亿元，收窄比例为2.49%。 ...

经财务部门初步测算，公司2025年度预计实现营业收入31.53亿元，同比增长35.81%；盈利端虽仍处于亏损状态，但亏损幅度显著收窄：预计归属 于母公司所有者的净利润为-4.49亿，较上年同期亏损收窄比例达25.29%；归属于母公司所有者扣除非经常性损益后的净利润亏损同比收窄 2.49%。 报告期内，公司各板块均实现不同程度增长。其中量产业务表现尤为突出，预计收入同比增长73.98%；芯片设计业务收入同比增长20.94%，特许 权使用费、知识产权授权使用费收入均同比增长。细分领域中，数据处理领域成为核心增长引擎，预计全年营业收入同比增长超95%，收入占比 约34%。 订单层面，公司2025年呈现爆发式增长态势。单季度新签订单三次突破历史新高，其中四季度订单较三季度增长70.17%。全年新签订单总额达 59.6亿元，同比激增103.41%，其中AI算力相关订单占比超73%，数据处理领域订单占比超50%。 A股半导体IP供应商芯原股份(688521)1月23日晚间发布2025年年度业绩预告公告显示，去年公司全年业绩呈现营收大幅增长、亏损明显收窄的态 势，在手订单规模持续扩大，AI算力相关订单占比超73%，数据处理 ...

报告期内，公司各板块均实现不同程度增长。其中量产业务表现尤为突出，预计收入同比增长 73.98%；芯片设计业务收入同比增长20.94%，特许权使用费、知识产权授权使用费收入均同比增长。 细分领域中，数据处理领域成为核心增长引擎，预计全年营业收入同比增长超95%，收入占比约34%。 A股半导体IP供应商芯原股份(688521)1月23日晚间发布2025年年度业绩预告公告显示，去年公司全年业 绩呈现营收大幅增长、亏损明显收窄的态势，在手订单规模持续扩大，AI算力相关订单占比超73%，数 据处理领域增长突出。 订单层面，公司2025年呈现爆发式增长态势。单季度新签订单三次突破历史新高，其中四季度订单较三 季度增长70.17%。全年新签订单总额达59.6亿元，同比激增103.41%，其中AI算力相关订单占比超 73%，数据处理领域订单占比超50%。 截至2025年末，公司在手订单金额达50.75亿元，较三季度末环比提升54.45%，且已连续九个季度保持 高位。在手订单中，量产业务订单超30亿元，预计一年内转化比例超80%，近60%聚焦数据处理应用领 域。 经财务部门初步测算，公司2025年度预计实现营业收入31.53 ...