| 8月金股策略:布局新高 | CR | 方奕(分析师) | | --- | --- | --- | | ■ 国泰海通策略 2025年8月金股组合 | પર | 021-38031658 | | | D | fangyi2@gtht.com | | 本报告导读: | 登记编号 | S0880520120005 | | 中国经济转型加快、无风险收益下沉、资本市场改革提速,"转型牛"得以确立。在 调整中坚定信心,展望后市,中国股市还有新高,继续看好金融、成长与部分周期。 | বহ | 苏徽(分析师) | | | પ | 021-38676434 | | 投资要点: | P | suhui(@gtht.com | | ● 8月组合:1、银行:招商银行;2、非银:中金公司/新华保险;3、 | 登记编号 | S0880516080006 | | 海外科技:腾讯控股/快手-W;4、电子:寒武纪-U/芯基微装/苏州天 | | | | 1 | | | --- | --- | | 3 | 1 | | an | | | 4 1 1 1 | | | P 15 12 | | | 1 D 1 1 | | | 8 | | | 虚实互通: ...

New Stock Listings - HanGao Group listed on July 30, 2025, with an issue price of 15.43[1] - *ST Zitian and *ST Suwu are under severe abnormal fluctuations as of July 30, 2025[1] - Tianlu Convertible Bonds listed on July 30, 2025, with a risk warning[1] Market Alerts - Multiple stocks including *ST Xinchao and *ST Yuancheng are flagged for severe abnormal fluctuations on July 30, 2025[1] - New listings include companies like Xianghe Precision and Shenshui Planning, with announcements made on July 30, 2025[1] - The report includes links to detailed announcements for each stock, ensuring transparency and accessibility for investors[1] Trading Insights - The report highlights the importance of monitoring newly listed stocks for potential volatility and investment opportunities[1] - Investors are advised to review the latest announcements and risk warnings associated with these stocks to make informed decisions[1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Kaiyuan Securities indicates that the sustained high capital expenditure from overseas AI giants is driving strong demand for high-end AI server PCBs, leading to supply tightness in the market [1] Group 1: Industry Expansion - The PCB industry is entering a period of intensive expansion, with several PCB manufacturers announcing new expansion projects, including notable projects from Huadian Co., Shenzhen South Circuit, and Guanghe Technology [2] - The capital expenditure for PCB manufacturers is expected to increase significantly, with Pengding Holdings guiding a capital expenditure of 5 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 51.5% [2] - The acceleration of expansion and increased capital expenditure reflect the current high prosperity of the industry and indicate sustainable future growth [2] Group 2: Supply Chain Dynamics - Some upstream PCB equipment suppliers are experiencing supply tightness due to the active expansion plans of downstream manufacturers [2] - The rapid growth in global AI computing power demand is accelerating the technological upgrades and capacity expansions of high-layer PCBs and high-end HDI boards [2] - Chip Quik's order delivery schedule has extended to the third quarter of 2025, with its capacity running at full load and optimistic business development prospects [2] Group 3: Technological Upgrades - AI's requirements for PCB performance are driving upgrades in layers, materials, and processes, with AI server PCBs typically having over 20 layers, compared to traditional servers which have 6-16 layers [3] - Advanced manufacturing processes such as back drilling and resin-filled holes are necessary to enhance the reliability and stability of AI server PCBs [3] - The complexity of high-layer HDI board structures is increasing, necessitating upgrades in related equipment, such as the introduction of advanced testing machines and drilling technologies by companies like Dazhu CNC [3] Group 4: Beneficiary Companies - Recommended beneficiaries in the PCB exposure equipment sector include Chip Quik [4] - Dazhu CNC is highlighted as a beneficiary in PCB drilling, exposure, forming, and testing equipment [4] - Dongwei Technology is identified as a beneficiary in PCB electroplating equipment, while Ding Tai Gao Ke is noted for PCB drilling needles [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Chip Microelectronics (芯碁微装) has shown significant financial growth in its latest quarterly report, with a notable increase in revenue and net profit [1] - As of July 29, 2025, Chip Microelectronics' stock closed at 126.6 yuan, reflecting a 10.47% increase, with a trading volume of 13.14 million shares and a transaction amount of 1.589 billion yuan [1] - The company's latest quarterly performance indicates total revenue of 242 million yuan, a year-on-year growth of 22.31%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 51.87 million yuan, up 30.45% year-on-year [1] Group 2 - The company has a current liquidity ratio of 3.935 and a quick ratio of 2.804, indicating strong short-term financial health, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 25.37% [1] - Chip Microelectronics has made investments in four companies and participated in 145 bidding projects, showcasing its active engagement in the market [2] - The company holds 25 trademark registrations and 368 patents, along with 23 administrative licenses, reflecting its commitment to innovation and compliance [2]

Core Insights - The report highlights the strong performance of Celestica, which raised its annual revenue guidance to $11.55 billion, up from the previous $10.85 billion, driven by robust demand from major clients [12][13] - The AI PCB industry is experiencing a significant expansion due to high demand for advanced AI servers, leading to increased capital expenditures and a tight supply chain for PCB equipment [16][17] - The antibiotic sector, particularly for the company Federated Pharmaceuticals, is stable with a growing market for diabetes and animal health products, projecting net profits of 2.839 billion, 2.452 billion, and 2.705 billion for 2025-2027 [29][30] Total Research - As of July 29, 2025, the 10-year government bond yield is at 1.75%, up 11 basis points from the June low of 1.64% [3] - Historical patterns indicate that bond yields can reverse in either a V-shape or W-shape, with the latter often leading to a more significant upward movement [4][5] - The report anticipates that the 10-year government bond yield could rise to a target range of 1.9% to 2.2% in the second half of 2025, driven by economic recovery and inflation normalization [10] Industry Analysis - The communication sector is seeing increased demand for light modules and liquid cooling solutions, as indicated by Celestica's performance [12] - The PCB industry is entering a phase of intensive expansion, with several manufacturers announcing new projects to meet the rising demand for high-end products [17][18] - AI's impact on PCB performance is pushing for upgrades in materials and manufacturing processes, with a focus on higher layer counts and advanced techniques [19][20] Company-Specific Insights - Celestica's second-quarter revenue reached $2.89 billion, a 21% year-over-year increase, with a notable 82% growth in its hardware platform solutions segment [12] - The company is benefiting from strong demand from its top clients, which account for a significant portion of its revenue [12] - The report emphasizes the potential for significant growth in the PCB equipment market due to ongoing expansions and technological upgrades [16][18]

Core Viewpoint - The PCB industry is experiencing a significant expansion phase driven by strong demand from downstream manufacturers, which is also impacting the upstream PCB equipment sector. This expansion cycle is expected to lead to a notable increase in equipment order volumes and an upgrade in high-end PCB production lines, resulting in improved performance for PCB equipment manufacturers [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Expansion - Downstream PCB manufacturers are actively expanding production to meet demand, with several companies announcing new expansion projects in recent months, including notable projects from Huadian Co., Shennan Circuit, and Guanghe Technology [1]. - The capital expenditure guidance from companies like Pengding Holdings indicates a 51.5% year-on-year increase, reflecting the industry's high growth potential and sustainable future growth [1]. Group 2: Supply Chain Dynamics - Some upstream PCB equipment suppliers are experiencing supply tightness due to the rapid growth in global AI computing demand, which is accelerating the technological upgrades and capacity expansions for high-layer PCBs and high-end HDI boards [1][2]. - Chip Quik's order delivery schedule has extended to the third quarter of 2025, indicating a fully loaded production capacity and an optimistic business outlook [2]. Group 3: Technological Upgrades - AI's requirements for PCB performance are driving upgrades in layers, materials, and manufacturing processes, with AI server PCBs typically exceeding 20 layers, compared to traditional servers [3]. - Advanced manufacturing processes such as back drilling and resin-filled holes are being adopted to enhance the reliability and stability of PCBs, leading to increased value [3]. - The complexity of high-layer HDI boards is pushing for advancements in related equipment, with companies like Dazhu CNC developing new technologies to improve processing precision [3]. Group 4: Beneficiary Companies - Recommended beneficiaries in the PCB exposure equipment sector include Chip Quik [4]. - Dazhu CNC is highlighted for its drilling, exposure, forming, and testing equipment, while Dongwei Technology is noted for its PCB plating equipment [4]. - Ding Tai Gao Ke is recognized for its PCB drilling needles [4].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating an expectation for the industry to outperform the overall market [13]. Core Insights - The demand for AI PCBs is driving a tight supply situation, leading to an acceleration in capacity expansion among downstream PCB manufacturers, which is positively impacting the upstream PCB equipment sector [3][4]. - Significant capital expenditure from overseas AI giants is sustaining high demand for high-end AI server PCBs, prompting downstream manufacturers to actively expand production [3][4]. - The current expansion cycle is expected to result in a notable increase in equipment order volumes and an upgrade in high-end PCB production lines, which will enhance the average selling price (ASP) of equipment [3][4]. Summary by Sections Industry Expansion - The PCB industry is entering a period of intensive capacity expansion, with several PCB manufacturers announcing new projects, including notable expansions by companies such as Huadian and Shenghong [4][10]. - Capital expenditures are increasing, with Pengding Holdings indicating a capital expenditure of 5 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 51.5% [4]. Supply Chain Dynamics - Some upstream PCB equipment suppliers are experiencing supply tightness due to the rapid growth in global AI computing demand, which is accelerating the technological upgrades and capacity expansions of high-layer PCBs and high-end HDI boards [5]. - Chip equipment manufacturers like Xinqi Microelectronics are reporting full capacity operations and optimistic business prospects, with order delivery schedules extending into the third quarter of 2025 [5]. Technological Upgrades - AI's requirements for PCB performance are driving upgrades in related equipment, necessitating advancements in layers, materials, and manufacturing processes [6]. - The complexity of structures in high-layer HDI boards is increasing, which is pushing equipment manufacturers to enhance their technology and precision [7]. Beneficiary Companies - Recommended beneficiaries in the PCB equipment market include Xinqi Microelectronics for exposure equipment, Dazhu CNC for drilling and testing equipment, Dongwei Technology for plating equipment, and Dingtai Gaoke for drilling needles [8][10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [9] Core Views - The company benefits from the expansion of PCB equipment and the acceleration of semiconductor equipment layout, maintaining a "Buy" rating. Despite a downward revision of the company's annual profit forecast due to limited capacity in the first phase of the factory, the company is expected to benefit from downstream PCB manufacturers' expansion and the upcoming production of the second-phase factory, leading to a positive mid-term performance release. Long-term, the company's semiconductor business is gradually constructing multiple growth drivers, with projected revenues of 1.5 billion, 2.2 billion, and 2.7 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, and net profits of 300 million, 516 million, and 709 million yuan for the same years [5][6][9]. Company Overview - The company is a leading manufacturer of direct imaging lithography equipment, primarily serving the PCB and semiconductor sectors. Its products include direct imaging equipment for PCB and semiconductor applications, covering various processes from microns to nanometers. The company has a complete range of LDI equipment for PCB manufacturing, including IC substrates, HDI, and flexible printed circuits [6][15]. PCB Business - The PCB business is driven by high-end demand from AI infrastructure, with optimistic capital expenditure guidance from PCB manufacturers. The company has maintained a full order book since Q2 2024, but growth has been limited by capacity constraints. The gradual production of the second-phase factory is expected to release capacity and positively impact order growth [6][15]. Semiconductor Business - The semiconductor business is accelerating its industrialization process, with multiple layouts constructing a new growth curve. The company is focusing on advanced packaging technologies and has successfully completed product validation for several advanced packaging customers. The company is also making steady progress in the general semiconductor field, benefiting from the long-term trend of domestic substitution [7][36]. Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - The company's revenue has shown steady growth, with a projected revenue of 1.467 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 53.8%. The net profit is expected to reach 300 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 86.7%. The gross margin is projected to be 39.9% in 2025, with a net margin of 20.4% [8][34]. Market Position - The company has established a strong market position with a complete range of products covering various PCB types and processes. It has successfully penetrated the high-end PCB market and is positioned to benefit from the ongoing expansion in the semiconductor sector [6][15].

Summary of the Conference Call for Chipbond Technology Co., Ltd. Company Overview - Chipbond Technology focuses on PCB (Printed Circuit Board) application scenarios, specifically direct exposure equipment. The revenue is primarily derived from three segments: PCB business, equipment maintenance income, and other industrial applications. In 2024, PCB business is expected to account for approximately 80% of total revenue. In the first half of 2025, PCB downstream demand surged, with deliveries reaching 300-400 units, surpassing the total of 380 units delivered in the previous year [4][5][10]. Industry Insights - The demand for PCB equipment has significantly increased, driven by high multi-layer board requirements. This trend is expected to continue into 2026, particularly after clients complete their construction and renovation projects [5][10]. - The semiconductor equipment sector is entering a verification phase in the second half of the year, with expectations for larger volume production in the following year [5]. Key Financial Metrics - The maintenance service contract amount is projected to reach 150 million yuan, significantly higher than the previous year. Maintenance service fees typically account for 8-10% of the original machine price, becoming a stable and important revenue source for the company [7]. - In the first half of 2025, the average price for multi-layer boards is around 1-2 million yuan, while high multi-layer boards can reach 3-4 million yuan. Gross margin is expected to rebound to over 40%, with net profit margin exceeding 21% [10]. Production Capacity and Expansion Plans - To address capacity constraints, Chipbond plans to launch a second-phase factory by the end of August 2025, which will double the cleanroom area and enhance overall delivery capacity [6][33]. - The monthly production capacity for the 73,789 series products is close to 100 units, with expectations for significant delivery volume in the fourth quarter, far exceeding last year's figures [9][10]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - Chipbond holds a market share of 80-90% among leading manufacturers such as Jingwang and Shenghong, with lower shares for other competitors like Shennan Circuit and Huitian [12]. - The company’s pricing is approximately 70-80% of overseas competitors, with comparable or superior technical specifications. The delivery cycle has been shortened to two months, enhancing market competitiveness [3][14]. Challenges and Strategic Adjustments - During periods of tight capacity, Chipbond prioritized large client orders, occasionally foregoing orders from smaller clients. Future strategies will aim to balance the needs of various clients as capacity expands [17]. - The company is actively working to penetrate the supply chains of Taiwanese firms like Pengding Holdings and Huitian, with significant orders expected in 2025 [15][16]. International Market Developments - In 2024, overseas revenue was only 60 million yuan, but in 2025, Southeast Asia is expected to account for over 30% of PCB orders, with over 100 units delivered to Thailand [18][19]. - Chipbond has established a headquarters in Thailand and plans to further promote its global layout through financing [19]. Technological Advancements - Chipbond is narrowing the technology gap with Japanese companies in packaging technology, improving from 8 microns to 6 microns, with plans to further enhance capabilities below 10 microns [21]. - The company has also made progress in laser drilling equipment, with expectations to receive around 20 orders in 2025, contingent on material supply [28][31]. Future Outlook - The PCB market is expected to remain robust in 2026, with many downstream PCB companies increasing capital expenditures, leading to new capacity entering the equipment delivery phase [32]. - The overall industry is projected to achieve large-scale production in the coming years, with 2025 focused on final process verification and the development of production routes [25].

Group 1 - The financing balance of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board increased by 1.766 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, marking an increase for 11 consecutive trading days [1] - A total of 430 stocks on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board have a financing balance exceeding 100 million yuan, with 18 stocks having a balance over 1 billion yuan [1] - The stocks with the highest net financing purchases include SMIC, Chipone Technology, and Western Superconducting, with net purchases of 164.45 million yuan, 109.12 million yuan, and 84.43 million yuan respectively [2] Group 2 - The average increase in stock prices for those with net purchases exceeding 10 million yuan was 1.58%, with notable gainers including Chipone Technology (up 20.00%), Electric Wind Power (up 17.47%), and CanSino (up 13.08%) [2] - The industries attracting the most financing interest are electronics, biomedicine, and machinery, with 29, 10, and 9 stocks respectively [2] - The average financing balance as a percentage of market capitalization for stocks with significant net purchases is 3.76%, with Tiancheng Technology having the highest ratio at 9.93% [2] Group 3 - The stocks with the largest financing balance increases include Chipone Technology (up 34.19%), Western Superconducting (up 17.52%), and Shijia Photon (up 8.32%) [2][3] - The stocks with the largest financing balance decreases include Shanghai Yizhong, Frontier Biotech, and Fuxin Technology, with decreases of 82.18 million yuan, 47.60 million yuan, and 41.38 million yuan respectively [1] - The financing balance of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board reached a total of 169.058 billion yuan as of July 28 [1]