证券研究报告：机械设备|公司点评报告 发布时间：2025-09-08 股票投资评级 买入 |维持 个股表现 2024-09 2024-11 2025-01 2025-04 2025-06 2025-09 -6% 2% 10% 18% 26% 34% 42% 50% 58% 66% 74% 中联重科 机械设备 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 公司基本情况 | 最新收盘价（元） 7.41 | | | --- | --- | | 总股本/流通股本（亿股）86.49 | / 70.70 | | 总市值/流通市值（亿元）641 | / 524 | | 52 周内最高/最低价 8.39 | / 5.75 | | 资产负债率(%) | 51.6% | | 市盈率 | 18.07 | | | 香港中央结算(代理人) | | 第一大股东 有 | 限 公 司 (HKSCC | | NOMINEES | LIMITED) | 研究所 分析师:刘卓 SAC 登记编号:S1340522110001 Email:liuzhuo@cnpsec.com 分析师:陈基赟 SAC 登记编号:S1340524070003 Email:chenji ...

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley upgraded Zoomlion's A-share rating to "Overweight" with a target price of 9 RMB [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has upgraded the rating of Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science and Technology Co., Ltd. to "Overweight" for its A-shares, setting a target price of 9 RMB [1] Company Summary - The upgrade reflects a positive outlook on Zoomlion's performance and market position within the heavy machinery industry [1] - The target price of 9 RMB indicates a significant potential upside for investors, suggesting confidence in the company's growth prospects [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the mechanical equipment industry, specifically recommending investments in PCB equipment for import substitution, technological iteration, and industry expansion logic, as well as solid-state battery equipment for accelerated industrialization [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights the significant increase in demand for high-end HDI (High-Density Interconnect) PCB equipment driven by the surge in AI computing server requirements, projecting a 33% year-on-year growth in the PCB market for servers and storage in 2024, reaching a value of 10.916 billion yuan [2][3]. - The solid-state battery equipment sector is identified as a key area for investment, with isostatic pressing technology being crucial for mass production, offering potential for industrialization due to its efficiency in achieving densification [4][21]. - The report emphasizes the growth potential in the silicon carbide (SiC) market, particularly with NVIDIA's new generation of GPUs expected to adopt SiC substrates, which could significantly enhance thermal management and reduce packaging size [5][28]. Summary by Sections PCB Equipment - The demand for drilling equipment is expected to rise significantly due to the increasing complexity of HDI boards, with domestic PCB manufacturers like Shenghong Technology and Huitian Electronics planning capacity expansions [2][3]. - The global PCB equipment market is projected to reach 51 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 9%, driven by the AI computing infrastructure [29]. - Key players in the PCB equipment sector include Dazhu CNC, Chip Quik, and Dongwei Technology, with recommendations to focus on drilling, exposure, and plating segments [31]. Solid-State Battery Equipment - Isostatic pressing technology is highlighted as a critical bottleneck for solid-state battery mass production, with domestic and international players accelerating the industrialization of this technology [4][21]. - The report suggests that the value of isostatic pressing equipment in solid-state battery production lines could reach 2.9 billion yuan by 2029, indicating substantial growth potential [21]. Silicon Carbide (SiC) - NVIDIA's plans to integrate SiC substrates into its next-generation GPU chips are expected to create new growth opportunities in the SiC market, with significant substrate demand anticipated [5][28]. Engineering Machinery - The report notes a strong recovery in excavator sales, with a 17.2% year-on-year increase in sales from January to August 2025, indicating robust domestic and export demand [6][10]. - Major infrastructure projects, such as the Yarlung Tsangpo River project, are expected to drive further demand for engineering machinery, with a projected market impact of approximately 108 billion yuan [36][37].

Core Viewpoint - The third Southeast Asia sub-exhibition of the Changsha International Engineering Machinery Exhibition concluded with significant contracts signed, highlighting the robust growth and international competitiveness of Changsha's engineering machinery industry [1] Group 1: Industry Growth and Performance - Changsha's engineering machinery exports surged from 16.37 billion to 29.06 billion, achieving a cumulative growth rate of 77.52% over the past three years [1] - Leading companies like SANY Heavy Industry and Zoomlion reported impressive international revenue, with SANY's overseas revenue reaching 3.69 billion USD, accounting for 60.26% of total revenue, and a year-on-year growth of 14.96% in revenue and 46% in net profit [3] - Zoomlion's overseas revenue also showed strong performance, with 13.81 billion CNY in revenue, a year-on-year increase of 14.66%, representing 55.58% of total revenue [3] Group 2: Market Expansion and Opportunities - Southeast Asia has emerged as a key market for Changsha's engineering machinery, with exports to ASEAN countries reaching 3.03 billion CNY, a year-on-year growth of 28.3% [4] - The establishment of a collaborative export model among companies, led by Hunan Construction Investment International Trade, has resulted in significant equipment orders and a more integrated approach to international markets [4] Group 3: Innovation and Product Development - The competitive edge of Changsha's engineering machinery lies in its focus on high-end, intelligent, and green technologies, with notable products showcased at the exhibition [5] - SANY launched over 30 new energy engineering machinery products, aligning with global low-carbon development trends, while Zoomlion developed the world's largest hybrid mining truck, filling a gap in the international market [5] - Iron Construction Heavy Industry's intelligent shield machine set a world record for monthly advancement, showcasing the technological prowess of Changsha's products in international infrastructure projects [5] Group 4: Policy Support and Future Outlook - Local policies and services have significantly supported the export growth of Changsha's engineering machinery, with measures to stabilize foreign trade and provide comprehensive support to key foreign trade enterprises [7] - The implementation of a remanufacturing system for engineering machinery has also contributed to export growth, with remanufactured equipment exports reaching 1.6 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 15% [7] - Future prospects indicate a synergistic growth between domestic recovery and international expansion, with ongoing support for enterprises to participate in international exhibitions and investment cooperation [7]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - A total of 135 stocks received buy ratings from institutions today, with 17 stocks receiving initial attention from institutions, indicating a strong interest in the market and potential investment opportunities [1]. Institutional Ratings - 140 buy rating records were published today, with 29 of these providing future target prices. 13 stocks have an upside potential exceeding 20%, with AVIC Optoelectronics showing the highest potential at 61.62% [1]. - Notable stocks with high upside potential include Noli Shares at 48.46% and United Imaging Healthcare at 37.22% [1]. - 17 stocks received initial buy ratings from institutions, including Haimeixing and Hengli Hydraulic [1]. Market Performance - Stocks rated with buy ratings saw an average increase of 3.27%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index. 119 stocks experienced price increases, with several hitting the daily limit up [1]. - Stocks with significant declines included Noli Shares, Agricultural Bank, and Shoufang Environmental Protection, with declines of 3.23%, 2.93%, and 1.26% respectively [1]. Industry Focus - The most favored industries include power equipment and machinery, each with 17 stocks listed in the buy rating category. The pharmaceutical and communication sectors also attracted attention, with 15 and 6 stocks respectively [2]. - Specific stocks receiving multiple buy ratings include Betaini, Kebo Da, AVIC Optoelectronics, and Yunnan Baiyao, each with two buy ratings [2][3]. Detailed Stock Information - A selection of stocks with buy ratings includes: - Betaini (2 ratings, +2.22% today, PE 40.30) in beauty care - Kebo Da (2 ratings, +10.00% today, PE 27.44) in automotive - AVIC Optoelectronics (2 ratings, +0.57% today, PE 28.83) in defense and military [2][3]. - Other notable stocks include: - Yunnan Baiyao (2 ratings, +1.06% today, PE 14.56) in pharmaceuticals - Zhonglian Heavy Industry (2 ratings, +0.41% today, PE 11.39) in machinery [2][3]. Additional Stock Ratings - Additional stocks with single buy ratings include: - Xuji Electric (1 rating, +2.09% today, PE 18.44) in power equipment - Xugong Machinery (1 rating, -0.20% today, PE 13.29) in machinery - China Rare Earth (1 rating, +2.33% today, PE 174.07) in non-ferrous metals [3][4].

Market Performance - The engineering machinery sector rose by 1.59% on September 5, with Changling Hydraulic leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3812.51, up 1.24%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12590.56, up 3.89% [1] Top Gainers in Engineering Machinery - Changling Hydraulic (code: 605389) closed at 45.04, up 6.20% with a trading volume of 31,800 lots and a turnover of 141 million yuan [1] - Hangcha Group (code: 603298) closed at 24.59, up 5.76% with a trading volume of 156,200 lots and a turnover of 378 million yuan [1] - Zhongji United (code: 605305) closed at 38.70, up 5.33% with a trading volume of 148,900 lots and a turnover of 570 million yuan [1] Market Capital Flow - The engineering machinery sector experienced a net outflow of 96.58 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 104 million yuan [2] - The top stocks with significant net inflows from retail investors include Changling Hydraulic and Zhongji United [2][3] Individual Stock Performance - Yichang Heavy Industry (code: 600031) had a net inflow of 39.30 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors had a net outflow of 29.07 million yuan [3] - Liugong (code: 000528) saw a net inflow of 25.38 million yuan from institutional investors, with a net outflow of 18.96 million yuan from retail investors [3]

Group 1 - The manufacturing PMI in August showed a slight recovery, increasing by 0.1 percentage points to 49.4%, indicating a modest improvement in market demand [1] - The production and new orders indices were reported at 50.8% and 49.5%, respectively, with increases of 0.3 and 0.1 percentage points, suggesting a warming in manufacturing market demand [1] - The company observes structural opportunities in AI infrastructure and new consumption, with expectations for improved profitability in downstream manufacturing by the second half of 2025 [1] Group 2 - Excavator sales, both domestic and international, saw significant year-on-year growth of 17% and 32% respectively, indicating a positive outlook for external sales and improving profit margins for manufacturers [2] - Companies such as XCMG, Liugong, and Zoomlion are recommended for investment due to their potential in the improving market [2] Group 3 - Leading companies in lithium battery equipment, such as Sieng and Hanke Technology, have shown a turning point in revenue, profit, and cash flow, confirming the timely release of downstream demand [3] - An investment of approximately 6 billion yuan is expected for solid-state battery research, with potential short-term catalysts anticipated from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's project acceptance [3] - Long-term trends indicate increasing battery penetration rates in Europe and the U.S., with recommendations for companies like Sieng, Hanke Technology, Lianying Laser, and Keda Li [3] Group 4 - The PCB equipment and materials sector is entering a new innovation and expansion cycle, with capital expenditure expected to accelerate from the fourth quarter of 2024 [4] - The PCB industry's capital expenditure is projected to increase monthly, with potential for upward revisions in industry orders [4] - In the liquid cooling segment, demand is expected to rise due to overseas capital expenditure expansion, with recommendations for companies like Invec and Tsugami Machine Tool [4]

Group 1 - The third "Changsha International Construction Machinery Exhibition Southeast Asia Division" opened in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, marking the first overseas self-hosted international professional exhibition by Hunan [1] - The exhibition attracted over 300 government representatives, business executives, professional buyers, and media from Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam, and China, showcasing nearly 100 leading global enterprises [1][2] - The event achieved over 2 billion yuan in signed contracts, establishing an efficient platform for "Chinese intelligent manufacturing" to expand internationally [1][4] Group 2 - The exhibition focused on "high-end, intelligent, and green" themes, displaying cutting-edge technologies and product trends in the global construction machinery sector [2] - The total exhibition area reached 6,000 square meters, featuring diverse thematic exhibition areas including concrete machinery, construction machinery, earth-moving machinery, and more [2] - Notable companies such as SANY Heavy Industry, Zoomlion, and LiuGong Machinery showcased popular export products, highlighting the strength of China's construction machinery industry's transformation and upgrade [2][3] Group 3 - The event served as a bridge for cooperation between China and Malaysia, promoting the export of equipment and technology, and aligning with Malaysia's industrial upgrade and digital economy transformation needs [3] - The construction machinery cluster in Changsha has surpassed 250 billion yuan, accounting for over 30% of the national total, with products exported to over 180 countries and regions [3] - Five companies from Changsha have been listed in the "Global Top 50 Construction Machinery" for four consecutive years, showcasing a complete ecosystem covering R&D, manufacturing, and services [3] Group 4 - The exhibition facilitated substantial commercial cooperation, with 11 companies, including SANY and Zoomlion, signing contracts totaling over 2 billion yuan for high-end equipment and intelligent solutions [4] - Additional activities included trade development seminars and forums, as well as nearly 20 one-on-one business matching sessions to enhance supply chain and capital connections [4] - Changsha extended an invitation to global businesses to participate in the upcoming "Fifth Changsha International Construction Machinery Exhibition" in 2027 [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9] Core Views - The company achieved revenue of 24.855 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.30%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.765 billion yuan, up 20.84% year-on-year [2][6] - The company plans to implement a mid-term dividend, proposing a payout of 2 yuan per 10 shares (including tax), resulting in a dividend ratio of 62.56% [2][6] - The company has accelerated the research and development of embodied intelligent robots, having developed three new humanoid robots, which are expected to expedite industrialization [2][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company reported a net profit of 2.765 billion yuan, a 20.84% increase year-on-year, and a non-deducted net profit of 1.925 billion yuan, up 30.08% year-on-year [2][6] - The operating cash flow net amount for H1 2025 was 1.75 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 112% [2][6] - The company’s gross profit margin was 28.15%, an increase of 0.17 percentage points year-on-year, driven by an increase in overseas revenue and product structure optimization [2][6] Market Expansion - Domestic revenue saw a decline of 12% year-on-year, primarily due to adjustments in the tower crane and high machine industries, while overseas revenue grew by 15%, accounting for 56% of total revenue [2][6] - The company experienced significant growth in regions such as Africa, the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and Australia/New Zealand, with Africa showing an increase of over 179% year-on-year [2][6] Product Development - The company has developed three new humanoid robots, including one wheeled and two bipedal robots, which are currently in pilot operations across various sectors [2][6] - The establishment of a comprehensive training facility for embodied intelligence is expected to enhance the company's capabilities in this emerging field [2][6] Future Outlook - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 5.023 billion yuan and 6.517 billion yuan in 2025 and 2026, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 13 times and 10 times [2][6]