Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the basic chemical industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The basic chemical sector has shown better performance than the market, with a year-to-date increase of 8.9%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 4.2 percentage points [4][16] - The global potash market is characterized by oligopoly, with major producers controlling supply and prices. Recent production cuts by key players are expected to sustain potash market conditions [5][27] - Phosphate supply remains tight, with stable prices and potential improvements in export opportunities as demand increases [5][27] Summary by Sections 1. Core Viewpoints - Policies are expected to improve supply-demand dynamics in the chemical sector, with a focus on cyclical investment opportunities [13] - The chemical industry is entering a new long-term prosperity cycle, driven by improved fundamentals and reduced risks [13][14] 2. Overall Performance of the Chemical Sector - The basic chemical industry index increased by 1.5% during the week, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.4 percentage points [16] - Year-to-date, the basic chemical industry index has increased by 8.9%, significantly outperforming both the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices [16][18] 3. Individual Stock Performance in the Chemical Sector - Among 424 stocks in the basic chemical sector, 298 stocks rose while 123 fell during the week [25] - The top performers included companies like Shangwei New Materials (+72.9%) and Hongbo New Materials (+24.7%) [25][26] 4. Key News and Company Announcements - The autumn fertilizer preparation has begun, with a focus on investment opportunities in potash and phosphate fertilizers [27] - Major potash producers have announced production cuts, which are expected to tighten supply and support prices [5][27] - Phosphate prices remain stable, with potential for improved export conditions as demand increases [5][27] 5. Product Price Changes - The report highlights significant price increases in various chemical products, with notable gains in dimethylamine (+16.7%) and fatty alcohol (+8.2%) [6] - Conversely, urea prices have seen a significant decline (-15%) [6]

Group 1: Liquidity and Scale of Rare Metal ETFs - The rare metal ETF had an intraday turnover of 3.5%, with a transaction volume of 30.73 million yuan [3] - Over the past week, the average daily transaction volume of the rare metal ETF reached 37.71 million yuan, ranking first among comparable funds [3] - In the past year, the rare metal ETF's scale increased by 16.82 million yuan, also ranking first among comparable funds [3] - The latest margin buying amount for the rare metal ETF reached 2.08 million yuan, with a margin balance of 21.28 million yuan [3] Group 2: Performance and Returns - As of July 10, the net value of the rare metal ETF increased by 30.36% over the past year [3] - The highest monthly return since inception was 24.02%, with the longest consecutive monthly gains being 3 months and the longest gain percentage being 14.06% [3] - The average return during the rising months was 7.76% [3] Group 3: Industry Insights and Recommendations - The lithium sector is currently in a bottom oscillation phase, with solid-state battery industrialization accelerating and energy storage demand expected to surge [3] - The new energy storage installations are projected to grow by 140% year-on-year in 2024, which may serve as a core catalyst [3] - Companies with strong cost control in lithium extraction from salt lakes and those with overseas resource layouts are recommended for attention [3] Group 4: Rare Earth Market Dynamics - The implementation of the Rare Earth Management Regulations is expected to enhance compliance capacity concentration, with a growth rate of 5.9% in 2024 [4] - The supply-demand gap for praseodymium and neodymium oxide is anticipated to widen starting in 2025, with a focus on light rare earth leading enterprises [4] - The strategic position of rare earths is significant due to U.S. tariff policies, which may positively impact company performance [4] Group 5: Key Stocks in Rare Metal Sector - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Rare Metal Theme Index include Salt Lake Co., Northern Rare Earth, Luoyang Molybdenum, and others, accounting for 54.07% of the total weight [4] - Notable stock performances include Northern Rare Earth with a 9.85% increase and Salt Lake Co. with a 0.86% increase [6] Group 6: Investment Opportunities - Investors can also participate in the rare metal sector through the Rare Metal ETF linked fund (014111) [7]

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Positive" [6] Core Insights - Potassium is one of the three essential nutrients for crop growth, often referred to as "the grain of food" [2] - The global potassium fertilizer market is projected to reach USD 28.12 billion in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.9% expected until 2033 [27] - The supply of potassium is dominated by a few major players, leading to a clear oligopoly in the industry [2][44] Industry Overview - Potassium is essential for crop growth, with a market size exceeding USD 100 billion [15] - The potassium resource is divided into solid potassium ores and potassium brine, with solid potassium ores being the majority [28] - Global potassium resources are unevenly distributed, with China holding only 4% of the world's reserves, leading to significant reliance on imports [2][53] Demand Analysis - Global potassium fertilizer demand is expected to grow steadily due to population increases, with an average annual growth rate of 2.67% projected from 2024 to 2030 [3] - Key regions driving demand include China, Southeast Asia, and Brazil, with specific agricultural practices increasing potassium usage [3][18] - By 2030, global potassium fertilizer demand is anticipated to reach 85.2 million tons [3] Supply Analysis - Capital expenditures for greenfield potassium projects are substantial, with development cycles typically ranging from 7 to 10 years [4] - Major projects, such as BHP's Jansen project, are expected to significantly increase global potassium production capacity [4][20] - If current projects are completed on schedule, global potassium production could reach 90.9 million tons by 2030, with a CAGR of 2.35% from 2024 to 2030 [4] Price Trends - Short-term price trends for potassium fertilizers are expected to be strong, influenced by supply constraints and high demand in key markets [5] - The price of potassium fertilizers is projected to face upward pressure until 2026, after which it may stabilize as new projects come online [5][26] - The long-term price will be supported by marginal costs, despite potential oversupply in the future [5]

Group 1 - The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate in China has rebounded to 62,600 CNY/ton as of July 9, marking a 1.51% increase from the beginning of the month, but a 35.6% decrease year-on-year [1] - Industrial-grade lithium carbonate price reached 60,966 CNY/ton, up 2.52% month-on-month, and down 35% compared to the same period last year [1] - The lithium battery sector is expected to see a recovery in profitability and revenue growth, driven by high demand in the supply chain and new technologies like solid-state batteries emerging in the second half of 2024 [1] Group 2 - The industry maintains an optimistic long-term growth outlook for demand, with companies utilizing cash reserves in anticipation of market improvement [2] - The entry of low-cost salt lake and integrated Chinese enterprises has strengthened the supply side's ability to withstand price fluctuations, potentially delaying the industry's turning point [2] - Companies with low-cost resources and diversified non-lithium operations are positioned to navigate the industry downturn effectively, with recommendations for specific stocks such as Zhongkuang Resources and others [2]

Group 1 - The actual controller of Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co., Ltd., China Minmetals Corporation, has initiated a share buyback plan to enhance investor confidence and recognize the company's long-term investment value [1][2] - The buyback plan commenced on April 9, 2025, and is set to last for six months, with a target to acquire no less than 211.66 million shares of the company's A-shares [1] - As of the announcement date, China Minmetals has acquired 4 million shares through centralized bidding, representing 0.08% of the total share capital, with a total holding of approximately 1.34 billion shares, equating to a 25.38% ownership stake [2] Group 2 - The buyback plan is still ongoing, and China Minmetals will continue to purchase shares as per the outlined strategy [2] - The company will adjust the buyback plan in response to any changes in share capital, such as new share issuance or rights issues, and will fulfill its information disclosure obligations accordingly [2]

证券代码：000792 证券简称：盐湖股份 公告编号：2025-037 青海盐湖工业股份有限公司 关于实际控制人增持公司股份计划实施进展暨增持时间过 半的公告 三、其他相关说明 1、本次增持计划及实施过程符合《公司法》《证券法》《上市公司收购管理 公司实际控制人中国五矿集团有限公司保证向本公司提供的信息内容真实、 准确、完整，没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 本公司及董事会全体成员保证公告内容与信息披露义务人提供的信息一致。 青海盐湖工业股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）近日收到实际控制人中国 五矿集团有限公司（以下简称"中国五矿"）出具的《关于增持公司股份计划实 施进展暨增持时间过半的告知函》，现将相关情况公告如下： 一、增持计划的基本情况 基于对公司未来持续稳定发展的信心和长期投资价值的认可，为增强投资者 信心，公司实际控制人中国五矿计划自 2025 年 4 月 9 日起 6 个月内，通过深圳 证券交易所系统允许的方式（包括但不限于大宗交易和集中竞价交易）增持公司 A 股股票。本次计划增持股份总数量不少于 21,166.29 万股。具体内容详见公司 于 2025 年 4 月 9 日披露的《关于实际控制人 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the performance of the CSI 800 Materials Theme Index, which has shown significant growth over various time frames, indicating a positive trend in the materials sector [1][2] - The CSI 800 Materials Theme Index reported a value of 2899.41 points, with a 3.48% increase over the past month, a 12.06% increase over the past three months, and an 8.07% increase year-to-date [1] - The index is composed of listed companies in the materials sector selected from the CSI 800 Index, reflecting the overall performance of these companies [1] Group 2 - The top ten weighted companies in the CSI 800 Materials Theme Index include Zijin Mining (12.74%), Wanhua Chemical (4.0%), and Yilong Co. (2.48%), among others [1] - The market share of the index's holdings is predominantly from the Shanghai Stock Exchange (65.19%) and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange (34.81%) [1] - In terms of industry composition, non-ferrous metals account for 50.67%, chemicals for 32.62%, steel for 8.63%, non-metallic materials for 6.87%, and paper and packaging for 1.22% [2] Group 3 - The index samples are adjusted biannually, with adjustments occurring on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December [2] - Weight factors are generally fixed until the next scheduled adjustment, with special circumstances allowing for temporary adjustments [2] - Companies that are delisted or undergo mergers, acquisitions, or splits are handled according to specific calculation and maintenance guidelines [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the lithium sector, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this industry [6]. Core Insights - The lithium price has shown continuous growth, rising from 59,000 CNY/ton to 64,000 CNY/ton, marking an increase of 8.1% since June 23 [10]. - Supply-side signals indicate a reduction in output from Australian mines, suggesting that the industry is in the later stages of capacity clearance [2]. - Demand remains robust, with significant growth in the lithium battery production and electric vehicle sales, supporting a favorable price transmission for lithium [3]. Supply Summary - Australian lithium mines are signaling reduced output, with production expected to remain flat at 740,000 tons in Q1 2025, down 17% from the previous quarter [2]. - The current pricing has reached a sensitive cost level for Australian producers, leading to operational adjustments and cost-cutting measures [2]. - The low lithium prices have resulted in a squeeze on capital expenditures, potentially leading to a slowdown in supply growth in the future [2]. Demand Summary - The lithium battery industry is experiencing high growth, with domestic battery production reaching 801 GWh in the first half of 2025, a 52% year-on-year increase [26]. - Electric vehicle sales in China reached 5.42 million units in the first half of 2025, reflecting a 32% increase compared to the previous year [26]. - The competitive landscape in the electric vehicle sector is prompting manufacturers to initiate a "de-involution" process to stabilize pricing and improve profitability across the supply chain [27]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that companies with low-cost resource supply and diversified non-lithium operations will have a competitive advantage in the current market [4]. - Recommended stocks include Zhongkuang Resources, Yongxing Materials, Salt Lake Co., Tianqi Lithium, and Ganfeng Lithium, which are expected to navigate the industry downturn effectively [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [2]. Core Views - The report highlights that the "anti-involution" policy is guiding a short-term strength in energy metals, while gold is under pressure due to rising U.S. Treasury yields and a stronger dollar [1]. - The report suggests that despite short-term fluctuations, the long-term bullish trend for gold remains intact due to central bank purchases and fiscal concerns [1]. - Industrial metals are experiencing mixed trends, with copper facing supply disruptions and aluminum entering a potential inventory accumulation phase [1]. Summary by Sections Weekly Data Tracking - The non-ferrous metals sector showed mixed performance this week, with varying price movements across different metals [10]. - The report notes that the overall non-ferrous metals index increased by 1.0%, with energy metals up by 1.0% and industrial metals up by 1.5% [16]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: Global copper inventory increased slightly to 518,000 tons, with supply disruptions from MMG and Hudbay Minerals affecting logistics [1]. The copper price has seen fluctuations due to macroeconomic factors and demand-side pressures [1]. - **Aluminum**: The report indicates a potential inventory accumulation cycle, with production recovering in some regions while demand remains subdued [1]. Energy Metals - **Lithium**: The report notes a continued strength in lithium prices, driven by supply constraints and robust demand from electric vehicle sales [1]. The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate rose to 64,000 yuan/ton, reflecting a 1.5% increase [26]. - **Metal Silicon**: The report discusses a short-term upward trend in silicon prices due to production cuts and recovery expectations in polysilicon plants [1]. Key Stocks - The report recommends several stocks for investment, including Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and Luoyang Molybdenum, all rated as "Buy" [5]. Company Announcements - Zijin Mining announced an asset acquisition of the RG gold mine project, with a valuation of 1.2 billion yuan [34]. - Ganfeng Lithium completed the acquisition of Mali Lithium, enhancing its lithium resource integration strategy [34]. Price and Inventory Changes - The report provides detailed price movements for various metals, indicating that gold prices increased by 4.2% over the week, while copper prices saw a slight decline [21][23]. Market Trends - The report emphasizes the ongoing supply-demand dynamics in the non-ferrous metals market, with particular attention to the impact of macroeconomic indicators on metal prices [1].

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.32% on July 4, with 13 out of the 28 sectors experiencing gains, led by the banking and media sectors, which increased by 1.84% and 0.91% respectively [1] - The sectors that saw the largest declines were beauty care and non-ferrous metals, with decreases of 1.87% and 1.60% respectively [1] - The basic chemical industry ranked third in terms of decline today [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The net outflow of capital from the two markets was 21.74 billion yuan, with 8 sectors experiencing net inflows [1] - The computer industry had the largest net inflow of capital, totaling 2.81 billion yuan, despite a slight decline of 0.05% in its stock price [1] - The banking sector also saw a net inflow of 758 million yuan, with a daily increase of 1.84% [1] Basic Chemical Industry Performance - The basic chemical industry fell by 1.22%, with a total net outflow of 2.174 billion yuan [2] - Out of 401 stocks in this sector, 41 stocks rose, and 354 stocks fell, with 4 stocks hitting the daily limit down [2] - The top three stocks with the highest net inflow in the basic chemical sector were Huafeng Super Fiber (1.62 billion yuan), Dongcai Technology (1.39 billion yuan), and Limin Co., Ltd. (1.24 billion yuan) [2] Basic Chemical Industry Capital Inflow and Outflow - The top stocks with capital inflow included: - Huafeng Super Fiber: +1.83%, 16.59% turnover, 161.85 million yuan inflow - Dongcai Technology: +10.01%, 11.12% turnover, 138.64 million yuan inflow - Limin Co., Ltd.: +5.83%, 22.57% turnover, 124.30 million yuan inflow [2][3] - The top stocks with capital outflow included: - Dazhongnan: +2.55%, 38.91% turnover, -195.83 million yuan outflow - Wanhua Chemical: -0.86%, 0.72% turnover, -137.99 million yuan outflow - Yanhai Co., Ltd.: -2.43%, 0.88% turnover, -98.39 million yuan outflow [3]