分析师：李泽森 登记编码：S0730523080001 lizs1@ccnew.com 021-50586702 工业金属 铝板块业绩保持增长，重点项目拟加速 推进 ——神火股份(000933)公司点评报告 证券研究报告-公司点评报告 增持(维持) | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------|----------------------| | 市场数据 (2024-09-04) \n收盘价 ( 元 ) | 14.32 | | 一年内最高 / 最低 ( 元 ) | 25.21/14.32 | | 沪深 300 指数 | 3,252.16 | | 市净率 ( 倍 ) | 1.58 | | 流通市值 ( 亿元 ) | 321.22 | | 基础数据 (2024-06-30) | | | 每股净资产 ( 元 ) | 9.06 | | 每股经营现金流 ( 元 ) | 1.81 | | 毛利率 (%) | 24.51 | | 净资产收益率 _ 摊薄 (%) | 11.20 | | 资产负债率 (%) | 57.70 | | 总股本 / 流通股 ( 万股 ) ...

| --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | 000933 | | | 公司点评 | | Q2 | 业绩环比改善，电解铝持续发挥成本优势 | | [Table_Rank] 投资评级：买入（维持） | 主要观点： | | 报告日期： 2024-08-28 | ⚫[Table_Summary] 神火股份发布 2024 年半年报 | | [Table_BaseData] 收盘价（元） | 公司 24H1 实现营业收入 182.21 亿元，同比-4.65%；实现归母净利润 | | 近 12 个月最高/最低（元） | 22.84 亿元，同比-16.62%。其中单 Q2 实现营业收入 99.98 亿元，同比 | | 总股本（百万股） | +4.2%，环比+21.57%；实现 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 15.03 yuan [4] Core Views - The company's H1 2024 revenue was 18.22 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.65%, while net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.28 billion yuan, down 16.62% year-on-year [1] - Q2 2024 revenue was 9.998 billion yuan, up 4.2% year-on-year and 21.6% quarter-on-quarter, with net profit attributable to the parent company at 1.194 billion yuan, flat year-on-year but up 9.4% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The electrolytic aluminum segment saw a 3.2% year-on-year increase in production to 749,900 tons, with sales up 2.3% to 749,500 tons, and a gross profit per ton of 4,058 yuan, up 6.2% year-on-year [2] - The coal segment experienced a 15.04% year-on-year decline in production to 3.228 million tons, with sales down 18.75% to 3.151 million tons, and a gross profit per ton of 329.47 yuan, down 42.08% year-on-year [2] - The company's income tax expense for H1 2024 was 771 million yuan, with a significant quarter-on-quarter increase in Q2, which negatively impacted profits [2] Financial Performance - The company's H1 2024 EBITDA was 8.039 billion yuan, with a projected EBITDA of 9.946 billion yuan for 2025 and 10.405 billion yuan for 2026 [3] - The company's net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 4.541 billion yuan in 2024, 5.923 billion yuan in 2025, and 6.289 billion yuan in 2026 [3] - The company's EPS is projected to be 2.02 yuan in 2024, 2.63 yuan in 2025, and 2.80 yuan in 2026 [3] Segment Performance - The electrolytic aluminum segment's production in Xinjiang was 400,000 tons, down 2.53% year-on-year, while production in Yunnan was 349,900 tons, up 10.59% year-on-year [2] - The coal segment's operating profit from its two core entities (Xinlong + Xinglong) was 750 million yuan, down from 980 million yuan in the same period last year [2] - The company's investment income from its equity stakes in Longzhou Aluminum and Xinzheng Coal Power was 57 million yuan, down 60.91% year-on-year [2] Valuation Metrics - The company's P/E ratio is projected to be 7.45x in 2024, 5.71x in 2025, and 5.38x in 2026 [3] - The company's P/B ratio is expected to be 1.49x in 2024, 1.27x in 2025, and 1.10x in 2026 [3] - The company's EV/EBITDA is projected to be 4.80x in 2024, 3.44x in 2025, and 3.04x in 2026 [3]

本报告仅供 Choice 东方财富 使用，请勿传阅。 公司快报 2024 年 08 月 25 日 神火股份(000933.SZ) 电解铝量利双增，煤炭生产恢复正常水 平 公司发布 2024 年中报 2024 年 H1 公司营业收入 182.21 亿元，同比-4.65%；归母净利润 22.84 亿元，同比-16.62%，扣非归母净利润 21.57 亿元，同比-21.35%。 其中 2024 年 Q2 营业收入 99.98 亿元，同比+4.20%、环比+21.57%； 归母净利润 11.94 亿元，同比+0.04%、环比+9.45%。扣非归母净利润 11.43 亿元，同比-4.82%，环比+12.88%。 公司上半年业绩受以下非经营性原因影响：1）公司上半年取得投 资收益 2.7 亿元，主要为处置神火发电股权取得；2）公司上半年 营业外支出 1.25 亿元，主要为因与华晨电力签订和解协议确认的 债权损失。 电解铝量利双增，煤炭生产恢复正常水平 ✔量： 1）铝：上半年公司铝产品产量 74.99 万吨（新疆 40 万吨，云南 34.99 万吨），同比+3.2%；销量 74.95 万吨（新疆 39.97 万吨，云南 3 ...

神火股份（000933.SZ）2024 年半年报点评 煤炭拖累 H1 业绩，期待 Q3 云南神火量利齐升 2024 年 08 月 23 日 ➢ 事件：公司发布 2024 年半年报。2024H1，公司实现营收 182.21 亿元，同 比下降 4.65%；归母净利润 22.84 亿元，同比下降 16.62%；扣非归母净利 21.57 亿元，同比下降 21.35%。分季度看，2024Q2，公司实现营收 99.98 亿元，同 比上升 4.20%、环比上升 21.57%；归母净利润 11.94 亿元，同比上升 0.04%、 环比上升 9.45%；扣非归母净利 11.43 亿元，同比下降 4.82%，环比上升 12.88%。 ➢ 煤炭量价齐跌拖累24H1业绩。量：煤炭产量下滑，电解铝产量上升。2024H1 公司煤炭产量 322.75 万吨，同比减少 57.15 万吨，减幅 15.04%；电解铝产量 74.99 万吨，同比增加 2.31 万吨，增幅 3.18%；碳素产量 22.97 万吨，同比减 少 1.31 万吨，减幅 5.4%；铝箔产量 4.15 万吨，同比减少 0.05 万吨，减幅 1.19%。 利：煤炭价格下跌，盈 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Shenhuo Co., Ltd. (000933) as of August 20, 2024 [1][8]. Core Views - The company's performance in the first half of 2024 showed a decline in revenue and net profit, primarily due to decreased sales and prices in the coal business, while the aluminum segment experienced growth in both production and profit margins [3][4]. - The report highlights that the increase in aluminum production and prices has positively impacted the company's profitability, despite challenges in the coal sector [4][5]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2024, Shenhuo Co., Ltd. reported revenue of 18.22 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.65%, and a net profit of 2.28 billion yuan, down 16.62% year-on-year [3]. - In Q2 2024, the company achieved revenue of 10.00 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 21.57% and a year-on-year increase of 4.2% [3]. - The aluminum production for the first half of 2024 was 750,000 tons, up 3.2% year-on-year, while coal production decreased by 15.0% to 3.23 million tons [4][5]. Segment Analysis Aluminum Segment - The aluminum segment saw a production increase of 3.2% and sales growth of 2.4% in the first half of 2024, with significant contributions from Yunnan province [4]. - The average price of aluminum in Q1 and Q2 2024 was 19,047 yuan/ton and 20,537 yuan/ton, respectively, reflecting year-on-year increases of 3.2% and 10.9% [4]. Coal Segment - The coal segment faced a decline in both production and sales, with production down 15.0% and sales down 18.8% year-on-year [4]. - The average selling price of coal decreased by 133 yuan/ton, leading to reduced profitability in this segment [4]. Future Earnings Forecast - The report projects Shenhuo Co., Ltd.'s revenue for 2024 to be 39.35 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 5% [7]. - The expected net profit for 2024 is 4.85 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 18% [7]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 2.15 yuan for 2024, with a gradual increase expected in subsequent years [7][8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [2][4][25] Core Views - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 17% in H1 2024, with revenue of 18.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 4.6% [1][5] - The decline in profitability is primarily due to the coal segment experiencing both volume and price drops, with coal production in H1 2024 at 3.2275 million tons, a decrease of 570,000 tons year-on-year [1][5] - The aluminum smelting segment is expected to face pressure in Q3 2024, but there is a projected recovery in aluminum prices and a decline in alumina prices, which may lead to improved smelting profits in the future [1][5] Financial Performance Summary - In H1 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 18.2 billion yuan and a net profit of 2.28 billion yuan, with a cash flow from operating activities of 4.069 billion yuan [1][5] - The average selling price of aluminum in H1 2024 was 15,608 yuan per ton, with a cost of 11,550 yuan per ton, resulting in a gross profit of 4,058 yuan per ton, remaining stable compared to the previous year [1][5] - The forecast for revenue from 2024 to 2026 is 37.8 billion, 39 billion, and 40.8 billion yuan respectively, with net profits expected to be 4.937 billion, 5.800 billion, and 5.857 billion yuan [2][23] Future Development Outlook - The company's future growth is largely dependent on the strong supply chain integration in Xinjiang, including a joint venture with China Power to develop an 800,000 kW wind power project [1][20] - The company is also involved in the exploration of the 5th open-pit coal mine in the Jun Dong coalfield, which has geological reserves of 2.53 billion tons [1][20] - The company is positioned to benefit from the supply-side structural reforms in both the aluminum and coal industries, which are currently in a favorable economic cycle [2][22]

证 2024 年 08 月 20 日 告 研 究 究 报 2024H1 因煤炭量价下降影响盈利，但 Q2 盈利环 比 Q1 改善 买入(维持) 事件 分析师：傅鸿浩 S1050521120004 fuhh@cfsc.com.cn 分析师：杜飞 S1050523070001 dufei2@cfsc.com.cn | --- | --- | |----------------------|-------------| | 基本数据 | 2024-08-20 | | 当前股价（元） | 15.91 | | 总市值（亿元） | 358 | | 总股本（百万股） | 2250 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 2243 | | 52 周价格范围（元） | 14.19-25.21 | | 日均成交额（百万元） | 516.11 | 市场表现 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 (%) 神火股份 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《神火股份（000933）：煤铝价 格下跌影响盈利，煤炭扩建项目将 释放增量》2024-03-28 2、《神火股份（000933）：主业稳 中求进，铝加工板块持续发 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 神火股份(000933.SZ) 2024 年 08 月 20 日 买入（维持） 所属行业：有色金属/工业金属 当前价格(元)：15.91 证券分析师 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 薛磊 资格编号：S0120524020001 邮箱：xuelei＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 谢佶圆 邮箱：xiejy＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 神火股份 沪深300 -34% -17% 0% 17% 34% 51% 69% 86% 2023-08 2023-12 2024-04 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------|--------|--------|--------| | 沪深300对比 | 1M | 2M | 3M | | 绝对涨幅(%) | -14.46 | -26.85 | -29.35 | | 相对涨幅(%) | -8.63 | -21.29 | -19.96 | 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 相关研究 1.《神火股份（000933.SZ）： ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company, with a target price of 21.25 CNY compared to the current price of 17.06 CNY, indicating a potential upside of 25% [1]. Core Views - The company's performance in the first half of 2024 was slightly below expectations, primarily due to declines in both coal sales and prices, alongside significant increases in aluminum raw material costs [1]. - The report highlights that the average prices for domestic electrolytic aluminum and alumina increased by 7% and 18% year-on-year, while the average prices for various types of coal decreased significantly, with declines ranging from 17% to 23% [1]. - The company achieved a revenue of 18.22 billion CNY in the first half of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 21.35%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.284 billion CNY, down 16.62% year-on-year [1]. Financial Performance Summary - The company reported total revenue of 182.21 billion CNY for the first half of 2024, a decrease of 21.35% year-on-year [1]. - Investment income rose to 270 million CNY, an increase of 87% year-on-year [1]. - Management expenses increased by 30% to 380 million CNY, while non-operating expenses surged by 326% to 125 million CNY [1]. - The net cash flow from operating activities showed a significant decline, with a net cash flow of -6.9 billion CNY, reflecting a decrease of 924.67% [1]. Production and Sales Summary - The company produced 3.2275 million tons of coal and sold 3.1506 million tons, representing year-on-year declines of 15% and 19%, respectively [1]. - In the electrolytic aluminum segment, production and sales were stable, with 749,900 tons produced and sold, marking a year-on-year increase of 3% and 2% [1]. - The report notes that the company’s integrated industrial chain is expected to enhance performance in the future [1]. Future Outlook - The report projects net profits for the company to be 5.189 billion CNY, 6.424 billion CNY, and 7.252 billion CNY for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, indicating a year-on-year decrease of 12.1% in 2024, followed by increases of 23.8% and 12.9% in the subsequent years [1][3]. - The valuation for the coal and electrolytic aluminum segments is based on comparable company analysis, with estimated PE ratios of approximately 8 times and 10 times for 2024 [1].