Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the real estate industry, indicating a cautious outlook with potential for stabilization in the market [2][6][41]. Core Insights - The real estate market continues to face pressure, with new construction and sales data showing significant declines. The report highlights a downward trend in new construction area, with an August year-on-year decrease of 20.3%, reflecting a 4.8 percentage point reduction from the previous month [2][42]. - Development investment also remains under pressure, with an August year-on-year decline of 19.5%, indicating that construction intensity is weak due to ongoing challenges in the sales market [2][42]. - The report suggests that the overall investment in construction may exhibit a "W-shaped" fluctuation pattern, with a short-term expectation of no V-shaped recovery [2][42]. Summary by Sections Sales Data - In August, the year-on-year growth rate of sales area adjusted for the base period was -10.6%, a decrease of 2.7 percentage points from the previous month. The overall new housing market has shown low-level fluctuations since May [6][15]. - Cumulatively, from January to August, the sales area reached 573 million square meters, with a year-on-year decline of 4.7% [9][16]. Construction Data - The new construction area in August saw a year-on-year decline of 20.3%, continuing a downward trend. The report anticipates that new construction will show a pattern of rising and then falling in the second half of the year [2][42]. - The completion area in August also experienced a year-on-year decrease of 21.4%, although it showed a slight recovery from the previous month [2][42]. Investment and Funding - The total development investment from January to August was 6 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 12.9% [9][16]. - Funding sources for real estate projects showed a year-on-year decrease of 8.0% in August, indicating ongoing challenges in the financial landscape for real estate companies [7][9]. Market Trends - The report notes that the average price of new homes in August was 9,601 yuan per square meter, with a year-on-year decline of 2.7% [9][16]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the gap between net rental yields and mortgage rates as a key factor influencing total demand in the housing market [41].

Group 1 - New housing prices in first-tier cities have seen a reduction in the rate of decline both month-on-month and year-on-year, with overall new housing prices in 70 cities showing a year-on-year decline narrowing to 3.0% [1][10][24] - The number of cities with rising new housing prices month-on-month increased to 9 in August, compared to 6 in July, while the number of cities with year-on-year price increases remained at 5 [1][14][24] - In August, Shanghai led the new housing price increases with a month-on-month rise of 0.4% and a year-on-year increase of 5.9%, making it the only first-tier city to achieve growth in both metrics [3][20][23] Group 2 - Second-hand housing prices in 70 cities experienced a month-on-month decline of 0.6%, with the rate of decline expanding by 0.1 percentage points [2][15][19] - Year-on-year, second-hand housing prices decreased by 5.5%, with the decline narrowing by 0.4 percentage points, while first-tier cities showed mixed results in their year-on-year performance [2][15][19] - In August, only one city, Changchun, saw a month-on-month increase in second-hand housing prices, while all cities experienced year-on-year declines [2][19][20] Group 3 - The overall real estate market in China is moving towards stabilization, with expectations for continued small fluctuations in housing prices amid supportive fiscal and monetary policies [4][24] - Recommended investment targets include strong credit real estate companies that can cater to improving customer demand, as well as firms benefiting from both residential and commercial real estate recovery [4][24]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate sector [2][3][34] Core Viewpoints - The investment side remains weak, with a year-on-year decline of 12.9% in investment from January to August 2025, and a more significant drop of 19.5% in August alone [1][20] - The sales side is also experiencing a downturn, with a cumulative sales area decrease of 4.7% year-on-year from January to August 2025, and a sharper decline of 10.6% in August [21][34] - Funding sources are showing a narrowing decline, with total funding sources down 8.0% year-on-year from January to August 2025, but domestic loans have turned positive [35] Investment Analysis Summary Investment Side - From January to August 2025, total real estate development investment reached 603.09 billion yuan, down 12.9% year-on-year, with August alone seeing a 19.5% decline [3][20] - New construction area decreased by 19.5% year-on-year, while the completion area fell by 17.0% [20][21] - The report predicts a continued weak investment environment, with forecasts of a 11.0% decline in investment, 15.1% in new construction, and 20.0% in completions for 2025 [20] Sales Side - Cumulative sales area from January to August 2025 was 570 million square meters, down 4.7% year-on-year, with a 10.6% drop in August [21][34] - The total sales amount for the same period was 5.5 trillion yuan, reflecting a 7.3% decrease year-on-year, with August sales amounting to 544.9 billion yuan, down 14.0% [21][34] - The average selling price of commercial housing decreased by 2.6% year-on-year, with a slight increase in August compared to July [33][34] Funding Side - Total funding sources for real estate development enterprises amounted to 6.4 trillion yuan from January to August 2025, down 8.0% year-on-year [35] - Domestic loans showed a year-on-year increase of 0.2%, with August seeing a 1.1% rise [35] - The report indicates that while funding remains slightly tight, it is expected to improve gradually due to recent policy relaxations [35]

Market Overview - On September 15, the real estate service sector declined by 0.26%, with Ningbo Fuda leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3860.5, down 0.26%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13005.77, up 0.63% [1] Stock Performance - Notable gainers in the real estate service sector included: - Zhujiang Shares (600684) with a closing price of 5.88, up 1.55% [1] - Shilianhang (002285) at 2.65, up 1.53% [1] - Zhongtian Service (002188) at 5.91, up 1.20% [1] - Major decliners included: - Ningbo Fuda (600724) at 5.14, down 1.91% [1] - ST Mingcheng (600136) at 1.90, down 1.55% [1] - Zhaoshang Jiyu (001914) at 12.30, down 1.60% [1] Capital Flow - The real estate service sector experienced a net outflow of 140 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 128 million yuan [1] - Detailed capital flow for selected stocks showed: - Zhongtian Service had a net inflow of 575.35 thousand yuan from institutional investors [2] - Ningbo Fuda faced a net outflow of 1,601.74 thousand yuan from institutional investors [2] - Zhujiang Shares had a net outflow of 750.96 thousand yuan from institutional investors [2]

Core Viewpoint - The stock price of China Merchants Jin Yu has shown a significant increase of 22.46% year-to-date, with a recent rise of 6.12% over the past five trading days, indicating positive market sentiment towards the company [2]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 9.107 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.17%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 474 million yuan, reflecting an increase of 8.90% compared to the previous year [3]. Shareholder Information - As of July 31, the number of shareholders for China Merchants Jin Yu was 19,300, a decrease of 2.27% from the previous period. The average number of circulating shares per shareholder increased by 2.32% to 54,971 shares [3]. Dividend Distribution - Since its A-share listing, China Merchants Jin Yu has distributed a total of 9.12 billion yuan in dividends, with 5.62 billion yuan distributed over the last three years [4]. Stock Market Activity - On September 12, the stock price rose by 2.02% to 12.65 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 44.8632 million yuan and a turnover rate of 0.34%. The total market capitalization reached 13.413 billion yuan [1]. Capital Flow - The net inflow of main funds was 2.4891 million yuan, with large orders accounting for 17.85% of purchases and 8.14% of sales, indicating active trading interest [1].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Positive" (maintained) [5][6][57] Core Viewpoints - Since September 2024, the central government has emphasized "stabilizing the real estate market and stock market," which is crucial for boosting social expectations and facilitating domestic demand circulation [5][6] - The report suggests that high-quality residential properties may experience a development wave due to policy guidance and changes in supply-demand structure [5][6] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.2%, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.8%, while the ChiNext Index rose by 2.4% during the week [9] - The real estate sector (Shenwan) declined by 1.5% [9] - Notable stock performances included Shoukai Co. (+32.0%) and Ningbo Fuda (+12.7%), while *ST Nanzhi fell by 22.6% [9] Data Tracking New Housing Transactions - In the week of August 30 to September 5, 2025, 42 key cities saw new housing transactions totaling 1.7 million square meters, a decrease of 15.3% week-on-week and 9.4% year-on-year [15] - For August 2025, the total new housing transactions in these cities reached 7.3 million square meters, down 4.1% month-on-month and 18.8% year-on-year [18] Second-Hand Housing Transactions - In the same week, 21 key cities recorded second-hand housing transactions of 171,000 square meters, a decrease of 9.1% week-on-week but an increase of 10.2% year-on-year [29] - For August 2025, total second-hand housing transactions in these cities were 793,000 square meters, down 7.2% month-on-month but up 0.9% year-on-year [34] Industry News - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development held a meeting emphasizing high-level legislation to promote high-quality development in housing and urban construction [45] - Shanghai initiated a new round of adjustments to existing mortgage rates, allowing second-home buyers to apply for a rate reduction to the first-home level [45] - In Shenzhen, policies were optimized to lower purchasing thresholds and mortgage costs for residents and enterprises [45] Company Announcements - In August 2025, major real estate companies reported varying sales figures: China Overseas Development at 18.33 billion yuan (down 0.7% year-on-year), and Greentown China at 10.6 billion yuan (up 27.7% year-on-year) [48] - Poly Developments recently acquired two projects in Lanzhou and Sanya, with a total payment of 1.612 billion yuan [48]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [4][5]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the broad housing demand in China has bottomed out, but the price and volume have not entered a positive cycle as expected. The real estate industry faces challenges from weakened household balance sheets and policy constraints requiring high-quality development without overall leverage [4][5][6]. - The "Good House" policy is seen as a potential breakthrough strategy that could lead to a fivefold positive resonance in core cities, gradually achieving a recovery driven by structural improvements [4][5][6]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Status: Challenges in Real Estate Fundamentals and Policy Constraints - Broad housing demand is estimated to have bottomed out, with total transactions stabilizing around 1.4 billion square meters [15][22]. - New home sales have decreased from 1.57 billion square meters in 2021 to an estimated 0.81 billion square meters in 2024, a cumulative decline of 48%, while second-hand home sales have increased by 64% during the same period [15][22]. - The key issue in the real estate sector is not demand but purchasing power, with a trend of consumption downgrade evident in the market [22][31]. 2. Breakthrough Strategy: "Good House" Policy Leading to Fivefold Positive Resonance - The "Good House" policy aims to create new products and markets, enhancing the price system under conditions of supply scarcity and relatively abundant demand [4][6]. - The report identifies five positive resonances: policy strength of "Good House," urban renewal, housing consumption upgrade, wealth reallocation under capital controls, and stock market strength [4][6]. - Potential benefits include expected further reductions in mortgage rates and loosening of purchase restrictions, which could drive improvements in core cities [4][6]. 3. Core Cities: Hong Kong Has Reversed, Shanghai and Other Core Cities Nearing Bottom - Hong Kong's real estate market has experienced a turnaround due to four positive factors, including talent policies and stock market gains [4][6]. - Other core cities like Shanghai, Beijing, and Shenzhen are also showing signs of improvement, with Shanghai expected to be the next city to see a bottoming out [4][6]. 4. Investment Analysis Opinion: "Good House" as a Breakthrough Strategy - The report emphasizes that the "Good House" policy could lead to a structural recovery in the real estate market, benefiting quality real estate companies positioned in core cities [4][5][6]. - Recommended companies include those with strong product capabilities and undervalued recovery potential, as well as second-hand housing intermediaries and property management firms [4][5].

Market Performance - On September 10, the real estate service sector rose by 1.0%, led by Huangting International [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3812.22, up 0.13%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12557.68, up 0.38% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Huangting International (code: 000056) closed at 3.01, with an increase of 8.27% and a trading volume of 2.4416 million shares, amounting to a transaction value of 711 million yuan [1] - Zhujiang Shares (code: 600684) closed at 5.83, up 5.42%, with a trading volume of 743,100 shares and a transaction value of 426 million yuan [1] - Other notable stocks include: - Zhi Shang Ji Yu (code: 001914) at 12.41, up 1.22% [1] - Wo Ai Wo Jia (code: 000560) at 3.11, up 0.97% [1] - Zhongtian Service (code: 002188) at 5.80, up 0.87% [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The real estate service sector experienced a net outflow of 83.2957 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 75.608 million yuan [2] - The capital flow for individual stocks shows: - Huangting International had a net inflow of 39.2422 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - Zhujiang Shares had a net inflow of 35.1417 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - ST Mingcheng (code: 600136) had a net inflow of 1.8429 million yuan from retail investors [3]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that招商积余 has experienced a continuous decline in stock price, with a total drop of 5.61% over the past six days, closing at 12.28 yuan per share on September 2, with a market capitalization of 13.021 billion yuan [1] - 招商积余's main business is property asset management, with 96.01% of its revenue coming from this sector. The breakdown includes basic property management at 78.04%, non-residential properties at 56.30%, residential properties at 21.73%, and professional value-added services at 14.85% [1] - The company is located in Shenzhen, Guangdong Province, and was established on May 29, 1985, with its listing date on September 28, 1994 [1] Group 2 - 华夏基金 has a significant holding in 招商积余, with its 华夏中证1000指数增强A fund holding 236,800 shares, representing 0.71% of the fund's net value, making it the seventh-largest holding [2] - The fund has incurred a floating loss of approximately 17.29 million yuan during the six-day decline, with a current floating loss of about 28,400 yuan [2] - 华夏中证1000指数增强A fund was established on December 7, 2021, and has a current scale of 1.03 billion yuan, with a year-to-date return of 28.26% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company announced the approval of an organizational restructuring plan by its board of directors during the 39th meeting of the 10th session [2] Group 1 - The announcement was made on the evening of September 9 [2] - The restructuring plan pertains to the company's subordinate units [2] - The decision was made during a board meeting [2]