Core Insights - The report maintains a bullish outlook on the real estate market, highlighting the significant debut of commercial real estate REITs, with the first batch of applications exceeding 32.1 billion RMB, accounting for 14% of the existing C-REITs market [5] - The cancellation of the "three red lines" policy marks a pivotal shift, indicating a return to orderly market development and improved financing channels for real estate companies [16][20] - The report notes a strong year-on-year increase in transaction volumes for both new and second-hand homes, with new home transactions in 50 cities up 3.3% week-on-week and 37.2% year-on-year [5][9] Group 1: Central Policies - The cancellation of the "three red lines" policy allows for a more market-oriented development of the real estate sector, which had previously constrained financing for weaker firms [16] - The central government is actively managing expectations and stabilizing the policy environment to facilitate a turning point in the real estate cycle [16] Group 2: Transaction Performance - New home transactions saw a week-on-week increase of 3.3% and a year-on-year increase of 37.2%, reflecting a recovery from last year's low base due to the Spring Festival [5][9] - Second-hand home transactions also showed significant growth, with a year-on-year increase of 154.9%, driven by a favorable comparison to last year's figures [9] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the new home supply has improved, with a week-on-week increase of 34.5%, which is unusual before the Spring Festival, suggesting increased developer confidence [5] - The second-hand market remains robust, with a year-on-year increase in visits and transactions, indicating sustained demand [5] Group 4: Land Market Performance - The land market showed weaker performance, with total land sales in 300 cities amounting to 12.7 billion RMB, down 20% week-on-week and 69% year-on-year [5] - The report highlights a supply of 7.93 million square meters, with a land absorption rate of 51%, indicating a dual weakness in supply and demand [5] Group 5: Company Performance and Recommendations - The report suggests that companies with strong investment fundamentals and low valuations, such as China Jinmao and China Overseas, are leading the sector [5] - The property management sector also performed well, with a 2.6% increase, outperforming the Hang Seng Index [5] Group 6: C-REITs Overview - The C-REITs composite return index rose by 0.36%, with 41 out of 78 REITs showing gains, particularly in the renewable energy and highway sectors [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [4][6] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the year-on-year performance of new and second-hand housing transactions aligned with the Spring Festival holiday, suggesting that the data may show significant changes in the coming weeks [11] - The real estate sector is viewed as an early economic indicator, making it a crucial area for investment as it reflects broader economic trends [4] - The competitive landscape in the industry is improving, with leading state-owned enterprises and select mixed-ownership and private companies expected to benefit more in the future [4] - The report suggests focusing on first-tier and select second- and third-tier cities for investment opportunities, as this combination has historically performed better during market rebounds [4] Summary by Sections New Housing Transactions - In the latest week, new housing transaction area in 30 cities was 136.9 million square meters, a month-on-month increase of 16.3% but a year-on-year decrease of 32.3% [23] - First-tier cities accounted for 40.3 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 6.7% and a year-on-year decrease of 20.0% [23] - Second-tier cities saw 64.9 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 24.4% and a year-on-year decrease of 29.8% [23] - Third-tier cities recorded 31.7 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 14.1% and a year-on-year decrease of 46.6% [23] Second-Hand Housing Transactions - The total area of second-hand housing transactions in 15 sample cities was 211.9 million square meters, a month-on-month decrease of 0.9% but a year-on-year increase of 15.0% [33] - First-tier cities contributed 93.8 million square meters, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.6% [33] - Second-tier cities had 82.6 million square meters, with a month-on-month decrease of 1.8% [33] - Third-tier cities recorded 35.5 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% [33] Credit Bonds - In the week from January 26 to February 1, eight credit bonds from real estate companies were issued, totaling 4.96 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.73 billion yuan from the previous week [3] - The total repayment amount was 8.93 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.49 billion yuan, resulting in a net financing amount of -3.97 billion yuan, which is an increase of 2.76 billion yuan from the previous week [3]

房地产 2026 年 01 月 31 日 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 曹曼 A0230520120003 caoman@swsresearch.com 联系人 曹曼 A0230520120003 caoman@swsresearch.com ⚫ 2026 年 1 月 29 日，证监会正式受理首批三只商业不动产 REITs，分别是汇添富上海地 产、中金唯品会以及华安锦江 REIT。 点评： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 行 业 及 产 业 - ⚫ 首批 3 只商业不动产 REITs 申报，覆盖底层资产为办公楼、酒店和奥特莱斯。1 月 29 日，上交所公示首批 3 只商业不动产 REITs 申报受理：1）汇添富上海地产 REIT，底层 资产为上海黄浦区鼎保大厦、鼎博大厦两个办公楼；预计募集规模 40.02 亿元、2026-27 年净现金流分派 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the commercial real estate REITs sector [6]. Core Insights - The launch of commercial real estate REITs in China is expected to significantly improve corporate cash flow and performance, optimizing financial statements and guiding the industry towards a new model of development [2][6]. - The first batch of commercial real estate REITs has entered the application stage, accelerating the development process [6]. - The report highlights several recommended companies across different categories, including development, residential-commercial, property management, and cultural tourism [6]. Summary by Relevant Sections Investment Highlights - The first batch of commercial real estate REITs covers diverse asset types such as hotels, offices, and commercial complexes, enhancing the range of underlying assets [2]. - Specific REITs mentioned include: 1. Huazhong Jinjiang Closed-end Commercial Real Estate Securities Investment Fund, with a projected fundraising scale of 1.703 billion yuan and an annualized cash distribution rate forecast of 3.44% for 2025 [6]. 2. Huitianfu Shanghai Real Estate Closed-end Commercial Real Estate Securities Investment Fund, with a projected fundraising scale of 4.002 billion yuan and an annualized cash distribution rate forecast of 4.50% for 2026 [6]. 3. CICC Vipshop Closed-end Commercial Real Estate Securities Investment Fund, with a projected fundraising scale of 7.47 billion yuan and an annualized cash distribution rate forecast of 4.57% for 2026 [6]. Company Profitability Forecast - The report provides profitability forecasts for key companies, indicating expected earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2024 to 2026, with all listed companies receiving an "Overweight" rating [8]. - Notable companies include: - Vanke A, with a projected EPS of -4.17 yuan for 2024 and a market cap of 54.22 [8]. - China Overseas Development, with a projected EPS of 1.43 yuan for 2024 and a market cap of 8.93 [8]. - Longfor Group, with a projected EPS of 1.58 yuan for 2024 and a market cap of 5.93 [8].

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate sector as "Overweight" [4] Core Insights - The industry is expected to stabilize as supply decreases and quality improves, with new and old drivers working together to push the market towards a bottoming out [2] - Key cities are anticipated to find a balance in sales by 2026, although long-tail cities will continue to drag down overall performance, albeit at a reduced rate [2] Summary by Sections 2025 Industry Review - The industry faced a significant downturn in sales and investment, with actual sales area data falling below previous lower predictions due to overly optimistic expectations for third and fourth-tier cities [8] - The decline in new construction and investment was more pronounced than expected, with new construction area growth at -20.4% and completion area growth at -18.1% [10][24] 2026 Industry Outlook - The focus will be on high-quality development, with key cities expected to stabilize sales. The central economic work conference emphasized stabilizing the real estate market and encouraging the acquisition of existing properties for affordable housing [7][9] - Investment growth is projected to be slow, with construction area growth expected between -5.8% and -10.2%, and corresponding investment growth between -4.0% and -12.5% [10][11] - The report predicts that the sales amount for 2026 could vary under optimistic, neutral, and pessimistic scenarios, with forecasts of 2.6%, -4.9%, and -11.4% respectively [10] Policy Focus - The main pressures on the industry will stem from investment growth challenges, with expectations for interest rate cuts and asset recovery policies to support the sector [10][11] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the implementation of policies related to interest rate reductions, asset recovery, and urban renewal [10][11] Sales and Investment Predictions - The report provides a detailed forecast for 2026, indicating that the total sales area is expected to stabilize between 7-8 billion square meters, driven by improving demand and urban renewal initiatives [44][50] - The sales amount and land acquisition trends are expected to reflect a continued focus on quality and strategic development in key urban areas [50][55]

Market Overview - On January 29, the real estate service sector rose by 4.56% compared to the previous trading day, with TeFa Service leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4157.98, up 0.16%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14300.08, down 0.3% [1] Stock Performance - TeFa Service (300917) closed at 42.60, up 10.13% with a trading volume of 220,900 shares [1] - Zhujiang Shares (600684) closed at 4.92, up 10.07% with a trading volume of 824,500 shares [1] - Wo Ai Wo Jia (000560) closed at 3.33, up 9.90% with a trading volume of 3,395,100 shares [1] - Other notable performers include Shilianhang (002285) up 5.13% and Zhaoshang Jiyu (001914) up 3.50% [1] Capital Flow - The real estate service sector saw a net inflow of 461 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 179 million yuan [2] - The main capital flow data indicates that Wo Ai Wo Jia had a net inflow of 257 million yuan from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 121 million yuan from retail investors [3] - Zhujiang Shares also had a significant net inflow of 121 million yuan from institutional investors, with a net outflow of 70 million yuan from retail investors [3]

Market Overview - The real estate service sector increased by 1.03% on January 28, with TeFa Service leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4151.24, up 0.27%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14342.9, up 0.09% [1] Individual Stock Performance - TeFa Service (300917) closed at 38.68, up 2.33% with a trading volume of 65,900 shares and a transaction value of 253 million [1] - Wo Ai Wo Jia (000560) closed at 3.03, up 1.68% with a trading volume of 1.5174 million shares and a transaction value of 458 million [1] - Ningbo Fuda (600724) closed at 6.82, up 1.64% with a trading volume of 197,200 shares and a transaction value of 135 million [1] - Other notable performances include: - Zhaoshang Jiyu (001914) at 11.73, up 1.12% [1] - Shilianhang (002285) at 2.73, up 1.11% [1] - ST Mingcheng (600136) at 1.71, up 0.59% [1] - New Dazheng (002968) at 13.34, up 0.53% [1] - Nandu Property (603506) at 14.16, unchanged [1] - Zhujiang Co. (600684) at 4.47, down 0.45% [1] - Huangting International (000056) at 2.02, down 1.46% [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The real estate service sector saw a net inflow of 55.558 million from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 40.3931 million [2] - Notable capital flows for individual stocks include: - Wo Ai Wo Jia (000560) had a net inflow of 55.6157 million from institutional investors [3] - Ningbo Fuda (600724) had a net inflow of 7.4156 million from institutional investors [3] - TeFa Service (300917) had a net inflow of 6.7338 million from institutional investors [3] - Zhaoshang Jiyu (001914) had a net inflow of 4.7044 million from institutional investors [3] - ST Mingcheng (600136) had a net inflow of 3.8735 million from institutional investors [3] - Conversely, stocks like Zhongtian Service (002188) and Huangting International (000056) experienced significant net outflows from institutional investors [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this sector [4][6]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the new home prices in 70 cities decreased by 3.0% year-on-year, while second-hand home prices fell by 6.1% in 2025, with core cities experiencing a significant decline [1][2]. - The report emphasizes that the real estate sector serves as an early economic indicator, suggesting that investments in this area can reflect broader economic trends [4]. - It notes that the competitive landscape in the industry is improving, with leading state-owned enterprises and select private firms performing well in land acquisition and sales [4]. Summary by Sections New Home Market - In December 2025, new home prices in 70 cities decreased by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.0% year-on-year, with first, second, and third-tier cities showing price changes of -1.7%, -2.5%, and -3.7% respectively [1][11]. - The report indicates that new home prices increased in 5 cities while decreasing in 65 cities throughout the year, with Shanghai showing a consistent month-on-month increase [1]. Second-Hand Home Market - The second-hand home prices in 70 cities fell by 0.7% month-on-month and 6.1% year-on-year, with all cities experiencing a decline [2][12]. - The report notes that after a brief stabilization in some cities post-September 2024, the second-hand home prices resumed their downward trend starting in the second quarter of 2025 [2]. Transaction Volume - For new homes, the transaction volume in 30 cities was 117.7 million square meters, reflecting a 1.3% decrease month-on-month and a 38.1% decrease year-on-year [3][25]. - In the second-hand market, the transaction volume in 15 cities totaled 213.9 million square meters, showing a 3.9% increase month-on-month but a 4.0% decrease year-on-year [3][36]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on real estate-related stocks, particularly in first-tier and select second-tier cities, as these areas are expected to benefit from policy changes and market dynamics [4]. - Specific companies recommended for investment include Green Town China, China Resources Land, and Poly Developments among others [4].

Core Insights - The report indicates a sustained optimistic sentiment in the real estate sector, suggesting that the market performance is likely to continue positively throughout the year [1]. Group 1: Policy Environment - Central policies have seen few new measures, maintaining a loose stance towards the real estate sector. Recent actions include the extension of tax incentives for public rental housing and a reduction in the minimum down payment for commercial properties from 50% to 30% [5][16]. - Local policies focus on long-term strategies in major cities, with initiatives aimed at urban renewal and optimizing land use policies [5][16]. Group 2: Transaction Performance - New home transactions remain low, with a year-on-year decline of 31.3% in the first 22 days of January, while second-hand home transactions have shown a year-on-year increase of 14.1% [5][9]. - The number of second-hand home subscriptions has increased significantly, with a year-on-year growth of 59.8% in the same period [5][9]. Group 3: Market Conditions - The new housing supply is in a seasonal downturn, with a 12% decrease in new home launches week-on-week. However, the transaction volume slightly exceeds the supply, indicating a market adjustment [5][9]. - The land supply and transaction scale have contracted sharply, with a 67% year-on-year decrease in land transaction value [5][9]. Group 4: Sector Performance - The real estate sector has shown strong performance, with a 5.2% increase in the SW real estate index, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 5.8 percentage points [5][9]. - Major real estate companies have experienced notable stock price increases, with leading firms like Greentown and China Merchants Shekou seeing significant gains [5][9]. Group 5: C-REITs Overview - The C-REITs sector has seen a 2.29% increase in the comprehensive return index, with 68 out of 78 REITs reporting gains this week [5][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors, highlighting the potential for quality real estate companies and commercial properties [3][29]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the real estate sector in China has undergone significant adjustments, with recent central government directives emphasizing the stabilization of the real estate market. The report notes a positive shift in industry sentiment and anticipates favorable policy developments in the future [3][29]. - The report identifies attractive valuation levels for quality companies, with some firms' price-to-book (PB) ratios at historical lows, making them appealing investment opportunities [3][29]. Industry Data Summary New Home Transactions - In the week of January 17-23, 2026, new home transactions in 34 key cities totaled 1.727 million square meters, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.6%. However, year-on-year comparisons show a decline of 38.2% for January [4][7]. - The report notes that first and second-tier cities experienced a 0.6% decrease in transactions, while third and fourth-tier cities saw a 17.7% increase [4][7]. Second-Hand Home Transactions - For the same week, second-hand home transactions in 13 cities totaled 1.32 million square meters, down 0.2% week-on-week. Year-to-date figures show a 9.6% decline compared to the previous January [13][29]. Inventory and Supply - In the week of January 17-23, 2026, 15 cities saw a total of 260,000 square meters of new supply, with a sales-to-supply ratio of 2.69 times. The total available residential area in these cities was 88.964 million square meters, down 0.5% from the previous week [23][29]. Policy and News Tracking - The report highlights ongoing government efforts to promote urban renewal, with various cities actively developing urban renewal plans. The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development emphasizes the importance of high-quality real estate development and the need for tailored policies [29][33]. - Recent data from the National Bureau of Statistics indicates a 17.2% year-on-year decline in real estate development investment for 2025, with new residential sales area down 8.7% [29][33]. Company Announcements - Several real estate companies have released their expected net profit for 2025, with notable losses projected for companies like Jianfa Holdings and Jindi Group, while Poly Development anticipates a profit of 1.03 billion yuan [37][29]. - Financing activities are active among various firms, with China Overseas Development issuing bonds totaling 25 billion yuan, and Vanke's bond extension proposal receiving approval [37][29].