证券研究报告 | 公司点评 gszqdatemark 2025 04 10 年 月 日 海大集团（002311.SZ） 公司发布 2025 年第一季度业绩预告，预计 2025 年第一季度实现归母净 利润 12-13 亿元，同比增长 39.42%-51.04%，扣非净利润 12-13 亿元， 同比增长 57.96%-71.13%，一季度业绩超预期。 业绩表现亮眼，饲料主业销量实现较好增长。一季度公司饲料外销量约 595 万吨，同比增长约 25%，同时公司积极开拓海外市场，通过在越南、 印尼、厄瓜多尔、埃及等目标市场当地建厂，海外业务不断取得进展。展 望未来，公司将坚定不移向短期 2025 年 300 万吨外销增量、中期 2030 年有望达到 5150 万吨，目标清晰，可兑现度高。 生猪利润超预期，养殖业务稳健推进。专业能力持续提升，公司摸索并推 行"外购仔猪公司+家庭农场、锁定利润、对冲风险"的运营模式，生猪 套保业务实现良好利润。在生猪养殖成本逐步下降下，2025 年全年公司 生猪养殖业务有望实现较好利润。 另外，公司饲料行业受关税政策对产业影响较少。近年来，饲料行业供应 链条安全、可控，原材料玉米以国内自产 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.2 to 1.3 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 39.42% to 51.04% [1] - The feed business has shown strong sales growth, with external feed sales reaching approximately 5.95 million tons in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of about 25% [1] - The company is actively expanding its overseas market presence by establishing local factories in countries such as Vietnam, Indonesia, Ecuador, and Egypt [1] - The pig farming business is expected to generate good profits in 2025 due to a decrease in breeding costs and the implementation of a risk-hedging operational model [1] - The company has a clear target for external sales growth, aiming for an increase of 3 million tons in the short term for 2025 and 51.5 million tons by 2030 [1] Financial Performance Summary - The company reported a revenue of 104.715 billion yuan in 2022, with projected revenues of 116.117 billion yuan in 2023 and 127.923 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 21.6%, 10.9%, and 10.2% respectively [4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.957 billion yuan in 2022, with projections of 4.516 billion yuan in 2024 and 5.229 billion yuan in 2025, indicating a year-on-year growth of 64.8% and 15.8% respectively [4] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to increase from 1.78 yuan in 2022 to 3.14 yuan in 2025 [4] - The company maintains a healthy return on equity (ROE) of 20.3% in 2024, slightly decreasing to 20.2% in 2025 [4] Industry Insights - The feed industry is less affected by tariff policies due to a stable supply chain, with domestic corn production and diversified import channels for soybeans and soybean meal [2] - The company has developed various low-protein formula technologies and raw material substitution techniques, reducing reliance on imported soybeans [2]

打包市场龙头，抢反弹就买指数ETF>> 海大集团（002311）涨幅扩大至7.76%，畜牧ETF(159867)持有该股票10.86%，当前涨幅为0.48%，最新 价创60日新高，成交额1.16亿元，较昨日此时放量303.22%，3日融资净流入，净流入495.03万，近1月 份额减少6600万份。 ...

广东海大集团股份有限公司 2025年第一季度业绩预告 登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 证券代码：002311 证券简称：海大集团 公告编号：2025-007 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗 漏。 一、本期业绩预计情况 1、业绩预告期间：2025年1月1日至2025年3月31日。 2、业绩预告情况 （1）2025年第一季度预计业绩情况 □扭亏为盈√同向上升□同向下降 ■ 二、与会计师事务所沟通情况 本次业绩预告相关数据是公司财务部门初步测算的结果，未经会计师事务所审计。 三、业绩变动原因说明 饲料行业产业链不断取得进步与完善，关税政策对产业影响较少。近年来，行业供应链条安全、可控： 其中玉米近年来以国内自产为主，大豆（豆粕）以南美的巴西、阿根廷等国家进口为主，对单一国家依 赖有限，进口渠道丰富、稳定。同时，行业技术持续优化、进步：已积累了大量低蛋白配方技术、原材 料替代技术等豆粕减量技术，可以显著降低对进口大豆的依赖。 广东海大集团股份有限公司关于收到董事长2024年度利润分配提议的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、 ...

证券代码：002311 证券简称：海大集团 公告编号：2025-006 基于对公司未来发展前景的坚定信心和长期价值的高度认可，为与全体股东 分享公司发展的经营成果，增强投资者信心，在符合《公司章程》及股东回报规 划的规定、在保证公司正常经营和长远发展的前提下，现就公司2024年度利润分 配提议如下： 以实施 2024 年度分配方案时股权登记日的总股本为基数（扣除回购账户中 的股份），向全体股东每 10 股派发现金股利人民币 11.00 元（含税）。在实施权 益分派的股权登记日前，公司总股本或应分配股份基数发生变动的，提议按分配 比例不变、调整分派总额的原则进行相应调整。以截至 2024 年 12 月 31 日的公 司总股本为基数测算，预计合计派发现金股利约 18.30 亿元（含税）。 本人承诺将在相关会议审议上述提议的利润分配方案时投赞成票。 二、其他说明 广东海大集团股份有限公司 关于收到董事长 2024 年度利润分配提议的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假 记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 广东海大集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）近日收到公司实际控制人、 董事长、总裁 ...

Financial Performance - The company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders for Q1 2025 to be between 120,000.00 million and 130,000.00 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 39.42% to 51.04%[2] - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is also projected to be between 120,000.00 million and 130,000.00 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 57.96% to 71.13% compared to the same period last year[2] - The basic earnings per share are estimated to be between 0.72 yuan and 0.78 yuan, compared to 0.52 yuan in the previous year[2] - The financial data presented is preliminary and subject to final confirmation in the official Q1 2025 report[6] - Investors are advised to be aware of investment risks as the financial data is not yet audited[6] Sales and Market Expansion - The company achieved a feed sales volume of approximately 5.95 million tons in Q1 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of about 25%[5] - The company aims to increase its export volume to 3 million tons in the short term by 2025 and reach a total sales volume of 51.5 million tons by 2030[5] - The company is actively expanding its overseas market presence by establishing local factories in Vietnam, Indonesia, Ecuador, and Egypt[5] Supply Chain and Technology Optimization - The feed industry has seen continuous improvement in the supply chain, with reduced reliance on single countries for imports, particularly for corn and soybeans[4] - The company focuses on optimizing technology, including low-protein formula and raw material substitution techniques, to decrease dependence on imported soybeans[5]

海大集团（002311）公告，2025年1月1日至2025年3月31日，预计归属于上市公司股东的净利润为12亿 元-13亿元，同比增长39.42%-51.04%；扣除非经常性损益后的净利润为12亿元-13亿元，同比增长 57.96%-71.13%；基本每股收益为0.72元/股-0.78元/股。 ...

Macroeconomic Insights - China will impose a 34% tariff on all imports from the United States starting April 10, 2025, which is expected to significantly reduce agricultural imports from the U.S. [3] - In 2024, China imported agricultural products worth $24.9 billion from the U.S., with major imports including soybeans (22.1 million tons), sorghum (5.7 million tons), corn (2.1 million tons), and wheat (1.9 million tons) [3]. Agricultural Sector - The increase in tariffs is likely to enhance domestic grain prices and benefit the planting industry chain, emphasizing the need for self-sufficiency in grain production [3]. - The report highlights the importance of technological advancements in agriculture, particularly in genetically modified and gene-edited crops, which are expected to accelerate, benefiting seed companies with leading technology reserves [3]. - The report recommends focusing on companies that are actively expanding their domestic brands in the pet food sector, such as Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co., which primarily generate revenue from domestic sales [4]. Livestock Industry - The report indicates that the pig farming sector is expected to see a significant improvement in profitability for the 2024 annual report and the first quarter of 2025, driven by favorable pig prices and reduced costs [5]. - The analysis of March's supply and demand dynamics in the pig farming industry shows a balanced market, but a potential downward trend in prices is anticipated if there is no support from state reserves [4][5]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks in the poultry sector include Shengnong Development, Yisheng Shares, and Lihua Shares; for the post-cycle sector, recommended stocks are KQ Bio, Haida Group; in the pig farming sector, recommended stocks include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, Tiankang Bio, and Shennong Group [7]. - In the seed industry, recommended stocks include Fengle Seed Industry, Quanyin High-Tech, Longping High-Tech, and Dabeinong [7]. - In the pet sector, recommended stocks are Guibao Pet, Zhongchong Co., and Ruipu Bio [7]. Chemical Industry - The report suggests that the imposition of a 34% tariff on U.S. imports will accelerate the domestic substitution process for chemical products, particularly in high-end markets [17]. - Beneficiary products include lubricant additives, nucleating agents, adsorption separation resins, and nano-silica, with specific companies recommended for investment [19]. Rare Earth Industry - The report maintains an "overweight" rating on the rare earth sector, anticipating that the recent tariffs will enhance China's strategic advantages in rare earth production and lead to price increases due to supply-demand mismatches [22]. - The export control measures on heavy rare earths are expected to stimulate overseas stockpiling, further driving up prices [23]. Insurance Sector - The insurance sector is projected to see stable growth in 2025, with a focus on improving asset-liability matching strategies [25]. - The report recommends increasing holdings in companies like China Pacific Insurance and New China Life Insurance, which are expected to benefit from improved investment returns and stable business strategies [40].

Group 1 - The Guozheng Grain Industry Index (399365) increased by 0.36% as of April 7, 2025, with notable stock performances including Wanxiang Denong (600371) hitting the daily limit, Shennong Seed Industry (300189) rising by 8.08%, and Lier Chemical (002258) increasing by 8.07% [1] - The Grain ETF (159698) rose by 1.27%, with a trading volume of 23.8488 million yuan, leading among similar products and achieving a turnover rate of 12.11%, indicating active market trading [1] - Dongxing Securities highlighted that agricultural products are being used as a significant countermeasure against tariffs, with an increased focus on food security strategies, as emphasized in the No. 1 Document of 2025, which discusses "new agricultural productivity" and the promotion of biotechnology in agriculture [1] Group 2 - As of March 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the Guozheng Grain Industry Index (399365) include Dabeinong (002385), Longping High-Tech (000998), and Beidahuang (600598), collectively accounting for 52.74% of the index [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural sector in light of the recent tariff increases on U.S. imports [1][5][4]. Core Views - The imposition of a 34% tariff on all U.S. imports is expected to benefit the domestic agricultural sector, particularly in the areas of feed, livestock, and seed industries [1][2][3]. - The report highlights that the increase in tariffs will likely lead to price hikes in key agricultural products such as soybean meal, corn, and beef, thereby enhancing the profitability of domestic producers [2][24][3]. Summary by Sections Tariff Impact Analysis - The Chinese government announced a 34% tariff on all U.S. imports effective April 10, 2025, which is expected to raise the import costs of key agricultural products [1][15][16]. - Major U.S. agricultural imports to China include sorghum, soybeans, cotton, beef, and corn, with soybeans and corn being particularly affected by the tariff [1][24]. Feed and Livestock Sector - The report is optimistic about companies like Haida Group and leading pig and poultry farming enterprises, which are expected to see enhanced profit margins due to better raw material management amid rising feed prices [2][3]. - The report suggests that the cost of feed, which constitutes a significant portion of livestock production costs, will rise, potentially accelerating the cycle of livestock production and benefiting leading companies in the sector [2][3]. Seed and Crop Sector - The seed industry is anticipated to benefit from a favorable price cycle and advancements in genetically modified crops, with corn prices expected to rise due to increased import costs from the U.S. tariffs [2][3]. - Companies with land resources in the planting sector are also expected to gain from rising grain prices [2][3]. Beef Industry Outlook - The domestic beef industry is projected to experience a turnaround as domestic supply decreases and U.S. beef imports shrink due to the new tariffs [3][24]. - The report indicates that the valuation of related beef companies is currently at a low point, suggesting potential for growth as market sentiment improves [3][24]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investments in the following sectors: 1. Pig farming: Mu Yuan, Hua Tong, Wen's, Shen Nong Group, Xin Wu Feng, Ju Xing Agricultural, Tang Ren Shen, Tian Kang Biological 2. Poultry farming: Li Hua, Yi Sheng, Sheng Nong Development 3. Feed: Haida Group 4. Seed: Quan Yin Gao Ke, Long Ping Gao Ke, Feng Le Seed Industry, Deng Hai Seed Industry, Da Bei Nong [3][4].