Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The supply of fat pigs is tight, leading to an upward trend in pig prices before the New Year, supported by both supply and demand factors [4][14] - The export value of pet food has improved month-on-month, benefiting from increased export volumes, although the unit price remains under pressure [5][21] - The pig farming sector is experiencing accelerated losses, while the pet food sector is seeing a rise in domestic brands due to consumption upgrades and tariff barriers [6][23][25] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - The average price of live pigs in China as of December 28, 2025, is 12.21 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 0.78 CNY/kg and a year-on-year decrease of 3.49 CNY/kg [4][14] - The average weight of pigs sold is 129.70 kg, with a slight decrease from the previous week [14] Weekly Market Performance (Dec 22-26) - The agricultural index underperformed the market by 1.63 percentage points, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.88% and the agricultural index by 0.25% [26][30] Price Tracking (Dec 22-26) - The average price of live pigs is 11.63 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 0.05 CNY/kg [37] - The average price of broiler chickens is 7.82 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 6.39% [37] Key Recommendations - Recommended stocks in the pig farming sector include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff, and Juxing Agriculture [6][23] - In the feed sector, recommended stocks include Haida Group and New Hope Liuhe [6][23] - For the pet food sector, recommended stocks include Guibao Pet, Zhongchong Co., and Petty [6][25]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the agriculture industry [5] Core Views - The report highlights a structural shortage in the pig industry, with pessimistic expectations likely to be corrected [2] - The report emphasizes the acceleration of capacity reduction in the pig farming sector, driven by recent policies and market conditions, which is expected to enhance long-term performance in the sector [3] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - The report recommends a positive outlook on the pig farming sector, suggesting that recent policies and market dynamics will drive capacity reduction, benefiting long-term performance. Key stocks include Muyuan Foods (002714, Buy), Wens Foodstuff Group (300498, Buy), and Shennong Group (605296, Not Rated) [3] - For the post-cycle sector, the report notes a continuing structural growth trend, with potential profit transmission down the supply chain if the current capacity reduction in pig farming proceeds smoothly. Relevant stocks include Haida Group (002311, Buy) and Reap Bio (300119, Not Rated) [3] - In the planting chain, the report indicates a confirmed upward trend in grain prices, with favorable fundamentals for planting and seed industries, highlighting significant investment opportunities. Related stocks include Suqian Agricultural Development (601952, Not Rated), Beidahuang (600598, Not Rated), Hainan Rubber (601118, Not Rated), and Longping High-Tech (000998, Not Rated) [3] - The pet sector is noted for being in a phase of growth and price increases, with continuous expansion in overseas markets and rising domestic brand recognition. Key stocks include Guibao Pet (301498, Not Rated), Zhongchong Co. (002891, Not Rated), and Petty Holdings (300673, Not Rated) [3] Industry Fundamentals - The report discusses the acceleration of capacity reduction in the pig industry, with the average price of live pigs as of December 26 at 11.63 CNY/kg, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.43% [13] - The report notes that the supply side is experiencing structural shortages, leading to price increases for medium and large pigs, with expectations of increased sales activity from smallholders as the New Year approaches [13] - The report also covers the white feather broiler chicken market, indicating a return to low volatility with prices rising to 7.82 CNY/kg, a week-on-week increase of 6.39% [19] - The report highlights the feed sector, noting that raw material prices are stabilizing at the bottom, with corn prices at 2338.63 CNY/ton, down 0.43% week-on-week, and soybean meal prices at 3174.86 CNY/ton, up 1.20% [29]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange have announced the nationwide promotion of the integrated currency pool policy for multinational companies, aimed at enhancing cross-border fund management efficiency and reducing operational costs for enterprises [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Implementation - The integrated currency pool policy will be implemented nationwide starting December 26, 2025, following successful pilot programs in various cities [1]. - The policy aims to transition from localized trials to a comprehensive framework, enhancing the predictability and transparency of cross-border financial management [1][2]. Group 2: Background and Development - The increasing number of multinational companies in China has led to a higher demand for efficient cross-border fund management due to diverse currency structures and frequent fund flows [2]. - Initial pilot programs began in 2021, with subsequent expansions in 2022 and 2024, optimizing management policies and simplifying application processes [2][3]. Group 3: Benefits of the Policy - The integrated currency pool allows for centralized management of both domestic and foreign currency funds, improving fund utilization efficiency and reducing management costs [4][5]. - As of the third quarter of this year, 98 multinational companies have participated in the pilot, benefiting nearly 5,000 domestic and foreign member enterprises, with cross-border transactions amounting to approximately $150 billion from January to September [3][5]. Group 4: Cost Reduction and Efficiency - The policy significantly lowers operational costs by eliminating the need for multiple fund pools and accounts, thus reducing account management fees and cross-border exchange costs [6]. - Banks are expected to provide streamlined services for enterprises, enhancing the efficiency of fund pool operations [6][7]. Group 5: Integration of Policies - The policy integrates various favorable measures for enterprises, allowing eligible companies to directly enjoy benefits from multiple facilitation policies [7]. - The approach aims to shift from pre-approval to post-management, thereby reducing institutional transaction costs for multinational companies [7].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange have announced the nationwide promotion of the integrated currency pool business for multinational companies, enhancing the convenience of centralized management of domestic and foreign funds [2][3]. Group 1: Policy Overview - The integrated currency pool business allows multinational companies to manage domestic and foreign currency funds centrally, improving the efficiency of cross-border fund utilization while mitigating risks [2][3]. - As of September, 98 multinational companies have engaged in this business, benefiting nearly 5,000 member enterprises [3]. - The policy aims to enhance the efficiency of cross-border fund utilization for large multinational companies and reduce foreign exchange risks and financial costs [3]. Group 2: Implementation Conditions - Multinational companies must meet nine criteria to engage in the integrated currency pool business, including having a genuine business need and a robust cross-border fund management structure [5]. - Companies must also meet specific financial thresholds, such as a combined international payment scale of at least 7 billion RMB and a total revenue of at least 10 billion RMB for domestic members [5]. Group 3: Key Features of the Policy - The policy framework includes unified management of the integrated currency pool business and encourages the use of local currency for transactions [5]. - The notification simplifies the process for companies to manage capital project foreign exchange payments, significantly reducing the time required for fund transfers [6]. - The policy allows for the centralized management of foreign debt and overseas lending limits, enabling companies to efficiently allocate funds [6][7]. Group 4: Benefits to Companies - The integrated currency pool can significantly enhance fund utilization efficiency, allowing companies to reduce fund stagnation and improve overall turnover rates [10]. - Companies like Haida Group have reported that the policy has enabled real-time fund transfers, improving creditworthiness and reducing risks associated with overseas funds [10]. - The policy also helps companies lower operational costs by eliminating the need for multiple fund pools and account systems, thus reducing management fees and cross-border exchange costs [10]. Group 5: Future Directions - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange plans to strengthen business guidance and promote understanding of the integrated currency pool policy among enterprises [12]. - The policy is seen as a financial engine for enhancing high-level openness and supporting the "going global" strategy of companies [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [1][42] Core Views - The SW agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry slightly underperformed the CSI 300 index, with an increase of 1.55% from December 12 to December 25, 2025, lagging behind the index by approximately 0.43 percentage points [11][14] - All sub-sectors recorded positive returns during the same period, with notable increases in agricultural product processing (3.04%), animal health (2.95%), planting (2.28%), fishery (1.56%), breeding (0.81%), and feed (0.29%) [14][15] - The overall price-to-book (PB) ratio for the industry is approximately 2.79 times, indicating a slight recovery in valuation, which remains at a historical low level, around the 62.7 percentile since 2006 [18][24] Industry Important Data - **Pig Farming**: The average price of external three-way cross pigs increased from 11.45 CNY/kg to 11.59 CNY/kg during the reporting period. The cost of corn and soybean meal has slightly decreased, with corn priced at 2338.04 CNY/ton and soybean meal at 3102 CNY/ton as of December 25, 2025 [22][24] - **Profitability**: As of December 26, 2025, the profit for self-bred pigs was -130.11 CNY/head, and for purchased piglets, it was -162.8 CNY/head, showing a reduction in losses compared to the previous two weeks [27] - **Poultry Farming**: The average price of broiler chicks was 3.59 CNY/chick, showing a slight increase, while the average price for white feather broilers was 7.82 CNY/kg, with profitability improving to 0.89 CNY/chick [29][33] Industry Insights - The report emphasizes the potential for a rebound in pig prices as the seasonal consumption peak approaches, with a focus on the high inventory of breeding sows and the opportunities for leading pig farming companies [42][43] - In poultry farming, the report highlights the recovery in white feather broiler prices and the improvement in profitability, suggesting a positive outlook for leading poultry companies [42][43] - The report also notes growth potential in the domestic pet market and the expected increase in export volumes, recommending attention to promising domestic leaders in this sector [42][43]

证券之星消息，12月25日饲料板块较上一交易日上涨2.34%，海大集团领涨。当日上证指数报收于 3959.62，上涨0.47%。深证成指报收于13531.41，上涨0.33%。饲料板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 002311 | 海大集团 | 54.65 | 4.13% | 11.79万 | | 6.36亿 | | 603668 | 天马科技 | 16.40 | 3.34% | 17.79万 | | 2.91亿 | | 001313 | 超过奥圈 | 7.73 | 3.07% | 16.17万 | | 1.24亿 | | 688156 | 路德科技 | 16.38 | 2.12% | 1.61万 | | 2599.01万 | | 300673 | 佩蒂股份 | 18.73 | 1.79% | 5.90万 | | 1.10亿 | | 301498 | 乖宝宠物 | 68.39 | 1.32% | 2.44万 | | 1.67亿 | | 0013 ...

据国金证券提供的数据显示，12月23日，猪肉平均批发价为17.5元/公斤，较12月16日上涨0.7%，猪价止跌反弹。 猪价,当月同比 月均(元/公斤) -- 猪价当月同比(%,右轴) 200 55 50 150 45 40 100 I 35 50 - 30 25 0 20 -50 15 10 -100 25-12 20-12 22-12 24-12 23-12 21-12 25-06 21-06 22-06 23-06 24-06 来源, Wind,国金证券研究所(日度数据更新至 2025. 12. 23) 华创证券指出：猪价10月中旬快速探底，创过去4年低点，毛猪&仔猪双双击破成本线，几乎同步进入亏损状态。历史经验看，全产业链的亏损通 常会带动基础产能加速去化。投资角度，预计猪价拐点有望在2026年Q2-Q3出现，猪价中枢也有望逐步抬升。当前生猪养殖板块估值水平处在相对 低位，安全边际充足。 关注生猪龙头汇聚的行业主题ETF：农业50ETF(516810.SH)，权重股包括牧原股份（002714）(14%)、温氏股份（300498）(13%)、海大集团 （002311）(6%)。在去产能过程中，生猪养殖头部 ...

Group 1: Livestock Industry - The pig industry is currently in a phase of deep losses, with supply contraction expected to continue into the first half of 2026, leading to a significant reduction in production capacity. The average pig price for 2025 is projected to be below the cost line, with quarterly estimates of 15.5 CNY/kg, 13.5 CNY/kg, 16.4 CNY/kg, and 17.7 CNY/kg, resulting in an annual average of approximately 13.4 CNY/kg [11][25][26] - The white chicken market is experiencing a cautious outlook, with a projected supply growth of less than 5% for 2026. The decline in the sales of commodity broiler chicks indicates a more conservative price expectation within the industry [30][35] - The yellow chicken sector remains stable, with production capacity not significantly affected. The prices are expected to follow trends in other protein sources, with a focus on seasonal price increases [39] - The beef market is anticipated to see a price increase due to a clear reduction in both domestic and international supply. The wholesale price of beef has been rising, reaching 66.21 CNY/kg in December, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.1% [42][70] Group 2: Agricultural Inputs and Other Sectors - The feed industry is showing signs of recovery, with a 6.6% year-on-year increase in feed production for the first three quarters of 2025, indicating improved demand from the livestock sector [71][76] - The edible mushroom sector is witnessing a rebound, particularly with the reversal of the predicament faced by enoki mushrooms and the potential growth of new products like Cordyceps [3][80] - The pet industry continues to thrive, with a notable trend towards high-end domestic products, as evidenced by the performance of brands like Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co. [4][63] - The natural sweetener market is expected to grow as consumer awareness of sugar reduction increases, with companies like Bailong Chuangyuan and Baolingbao positioned to benefit from this trend [4][71]

Group 1 - The pork concept sector declined by 0.42%, ranking among the top declines in the concept sectors, with companies like Delisi, Royole Mountain, and Haida Group experiencing significant drops [1] - Among the pork concept stocks, 9 companies saw price increases, with Jingji Zhino rising by 4.49%, Jin Xin Nong by 3.39%, and Zhenghong Technology by 0.45% [1] - The pork concept sector experienced a net outflow of 523 million yuan from main funds, with 23 stocks seeing net outflows, and 5 stocks having outflows exceeding 30 million yuan [2] Group 2 - The top net outflow stock was Muyuan Foods, with a net outflow of 204 million yuan, followed by Royole Mountain, Zhengbang Technology, and Haida Group with outflows of 95.06 million yuan, 88.91 million yuan, and 38.47 million yuan respectively [2] - The stocks with the highest net inflow included Jin Xin Nong, Jingji Zhino, and Dabeinong, with net inflows of 21.19 million yuan, 9.19 million yuan, and 6.50 million yuan respectively [2] - The trading volume and price changes of various pork concept stocks were detailed, with Muyuan Foods down by 2.47%, Royole Mountain down by 3.06%, and Haida Group down by 2.63% [3]

Group 1: Market Performance - A-shares experienced fluctuations and a decline, with the Consumer ETF (159928) dropping by 0.74% and a trading volume exceeding 650 million yuan [1] - The Consumer ETF (159928) has seen a net subscription of over 470 million units during the day, accumulating over 600 million yuan in the last 20 days [1] - As of December 22, the latest scale of the Consumer ETF (159928) exceeded 21.3 billion yuan, leading its peers [1] Group 2: EU Dairy Products Subsidy - The EU has announced a preliminary ruling on dairy products, determining that subsidies exist with a countervailing duty rate ranging from 21.9% to 42.7% [3][7] - Starting December 23, temporary countervailing measures will be implemented on imported dairy products from the EU [3] - The additional countervailing duty is expected to increase import prices, potentially accelerating domestic substitution in the dairy sector [8] Group 3: Domestic Dairy Industry Impact - The countervailing duties are projected to shift the deep processing of dairy products to domestic enterprises, as domestic milk prices are currently lower than international prices [8] - The deep processing sector is anticipated to enhance demand for raw milk, improving the supply-demand balance in the upstream raw milk industry [8] - Domestic dairy companies are actively focusing on deep processing, which is expected to drive demand growth and stabilize the industry [8] Group 4: Consumer Sector Insights - The Consumer ETF (159928) is characterized by its resilience across economic cycles, with the top ten constituent stocks accounting for over 68.55% of its weight [13] - The ETF includes major players such as Yili (10.37%), Kweichow Moutai (9.94%), and Wuliangye (9.50%) [14] - The current valuation of the Consumer ETF (159928) is attractive, with a TTM P/E ratio of 19.4, placing it in the lower 3.13% of the past decade [5] Group 5: Future Consumption Trends - The service consumption sector is expected to grow significantly as China's GDP per capita exceeds $10,000, indicating a shift in consumer spending patterns [11] - Emerging consumer groups, particularly the Z generation and affluent elderly, are likely to drive demand for service-oriented consumption [12] - Investment opportunities in the service sector are anticipated, particularly in areas such as event economy and AI applications [12]