行业报告 | 行业研究周报 农林牧渔 证券研究报告 2025 年 10 月 12 日 2025 年第 41 周周报：养猪进入全面亏损，后市如何解读？ 1. 生猪板块：行业进入全面亏损，第三方能繁持续去化，重视生猪板块预期差！ 重视生猪板块空间！重视优秀企业的盈利能力！在 25 年猪价持续低位&政策引导情况下，后续 产能有望去化。从 2025 年头均市值看，其中牧原股份 3000-3500 元/头，温氏股份、德康农牧 2000-3000 元/头；新希望、新五丰、唐人神、华统股份、天康生物低于 2000 元/头；估值处在 历史相对底部区间（数据截至 10 月 10 日）。在标的上，当前阶段，【板块β配置、重视核心资产】， 养殖龙头【牧原股份】、【温氏股份】，其次建议关注【新希望】；弹性标的建议关注：【神农集团】、 【德康农牧】、【天康生物】、【立华股份】、【华统股份】、【巨星农牧】、【唐人神】等。 2、牛板块：原奶价格持续磨底，静待新周期；肉牛超级周期或已启动；重视牛产业机会！ 由于复产周期长、效率低，预计本轮上行周期持续时间较长。我们认为，当前奶牛产能去化或近 尾声，Q3 青贮收购带来的资金压力可能推动出清边际 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Increase" [4] Core Viewpoints - After the double holiday, pig prices have rapidly declined to below 12 yuan/kg, with self-breeding and self-raising profitability dropping to -152.15 yuan/head, a decrease of 47.2 yuan/head from the previous week. The pressure from high supply is expected to continue to weigh on pig prices, leading to increased market pessimism and a potential for further price declines. However, there is an expectation for a mid-to-long-term price reversal driven by policy and proactive production cuts [1][15][19] - The average selling price of lean pigs nationwide is 11.39 yuan/kg, down 6.1% from last week. The current valuation remains relatively low, suggesting investment opportunities in low-cost pig farming companies such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and others [2][16] - In poultry farming, the price of white feather chickens is 6.88 yuan/kg, down 0.1% from last week, while the average price of chicken products remains stable at 8.65 yuan/kg. The price of meat chicken chicks has increased by 0.6% to 3.22 yuan each. There are expectations for a price rebound in the chicken market [2][16][34] Summary by Sections Livestock - The average weight of pigs sold is 128.48 kg, showing a 0.5% increase from the low point in early August. Feed prices have also increased, indicating a gradual rise in pig inventory since July [1][15] - The profitability of self-breeding and self-raising pigs is -152.15 yuan/head, while the profitability of purchased piglets is -301.04 yuan/head, indicating significant losses in the sector [19][20] Poultry - The price of yellow feather chickens has seen a week-on-week increase of 1.9%, with the current price at 14.18 yuan/kg. This suggests seasonal price elasticity opportunities [2][16][40] - The profitability of parent breeding chickens is 0.47 yuan/head, while the profitability of meat chickens is -2.23 yuan/head, reflecting challenges in the poultry sector [38][44] Agricultural Products - The approval of genetically modified varieties is expected to lead to commercial sales, with potential growth for industry companies as prices and profit distribution become clearer [2][16] Feed and Vaccines - The volatility in agricultural product prices is increasing, and leading feed companies are expected to replace smaller competitors due to their advantages in procurement and scale [2][16]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The agriculture sector shows defensive value amid renewed US-China tariff disturbances, with the sector currently at a relatively low level, suggesting improved investment logic and a recommendation for increased allocation [5][14] - The pig farming sector is experiencing losses, with both pigs and piglets facing declining prices, leading to accelerated liquidation. The average price of pigs is reported at 11.24 yuan/kg, marking a year-low [15][34] - The beef and poultry sectors benefit from improved domestic demand and tariff disturbances, with beef prices at 66.04 yuan/kg, showing a month-on-month increase of 0.41% and a year-on-year increase of 8.32% [22][19] - The seed and planting sector is positively impacted by the escalation of US-China agricultural product tariffs and domestic food security needs, with corn prices rising to 2304 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.54% since the beginning of the year [29][31] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - The agriculture sector's defensive value is highlighted due to renewed US-China tariff disturbances, with the sector benefiting from tariff countermeasures and food security logic [5][14] Weekly Insights - The pig farming sector is facing significant losses, with prices continuing to decline, suggesting a potential golden opportunity for investment as liquidation accelerates [34][15] - Recommendations include companies such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and others in the pig farming sector [34] Market Performance (10.6-10.10) - The agriculture index outperformed the market by 0.67 percentage points, with notable gains in stocks like Aonong Biological and Xuelong Biological [38][45] Price Tracking (10.6-10.10) - The average price of pigs was reported at 11.18 yuan/kg, down 1.08 yuan from the previous week, while the price of piglets was 18.72 yuan/kg, down 1.65 yuan [48][50] - The average price of yellow feathered chickens reached 13.80 yuan/kg, marking a new high for 2025 [22][49] Key News (10.6-10.10) - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs issued a notice on promoting agricultural product consumption, aiming to enhance supply and market channels [46]

Investment Rating - The report gives an investment rating of "Positive" for the agricultural products sector [11] Core Viewpoints - The swine breeding industry has transitioned from a rapid growth phase to a stable development phase, with medium to long-term capacity regulation becoming the new normal. High-quality breeding companies are expected to see significant improvements in profit margins and profitability levels [2][20] - The report highlights a divergence in profitability within the breeding sector, with leading companies still achieving good performance despite overall industry challenges. The poultry sector is experiencing a recovery in yellow-feathered chicken prices, which is gradually improving profitability [2][20] - The aquaculture feed industry continues to show strong performance, with leading companies like Haida Group expected to achieve simultaneous growth in volume and profit [2][20] - The pet food sector is experiencing sustained high growth in proprietary brands, with overseas factories demonstrating resilience in exports. Key recommendations include Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co [2][20] Summary by Sections Swine Breeding Sector - The swine breeding sector is gradually entering a loss phase, with significant divergence in profitability among listed companies. The average price of live pigs in Q3 2025 is approximately 14.0 CNY/kg, down 4% quarter-on-quarter and 28% year-on-year. The average profit for self-bred pigs is about 42 CNY/head, while purchasing piglets incurs a loss of 118 CNY/head [7][21] - High-quality breeding companies have a complete cost below 12 CNY/kg, maintaining a profit of over 200 CNY/head, while companies with higher costs may still face losses [7][21] - Future pig prices are expected to rise in Q4 2025 and 2026 due to increased supply indicators and policy-driven capacity restrictions [26] Feed Sector - The feed industry maintains growth in production, with aquaculture feed demand recovering. Haida Group's feed sales are expected to grow by about 20% year-on-year in Q3 2025, with net profit in the feed sector expected to increase by 30%-40% year-on-year [8][43] - The report notes that the structure of feed products is improving, with higher-margin products gaining a larger share of sales [8][43] Poultry Sector - The yellow-feathered chicken prices have bottomed out and are recovering, which is enhancing the profitability of the poultry breeding sector [2][20] Pet Food Sector - The pet food sector continues to see high growth in proprietary brands, with Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co recommended for their resilience in overseas sales. Online sales growth for the pet food industry is around 7.7%, with Guibao's proprietary brand growing by 21% [9][20]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural products sector [1][4]. Core Views - The report is optimistic about the reversal of the livestock cycle in 2025, with domestic beef and raw milk markets expected to experience upward momentum [3]. - The report highlights the support for long-term pig prices due to industry restructuring, and it sees potential recovery for undervalued leading companies in the sector [3]. - The pet consumption sector is identified as a growth area, benefiting from demographic changes [3]. - The report suggests that the feed sector, particularly Haida Group, is likely to benefit from the recovery in aquaculture [3]. - The poultry sector is expected to see a long-term increase in consumption, with yellow chicken likely to benefit first from domestic demand recovery [3]. Summary by Sections Swine - The report notes that as of October 10, the price of live pigs is 11.14 yuan/kg, down 7.48% week-on-week and down 38.45% year-on-year [1][13]. - The price of 7kg piglets is approximately 188.57 yuan/head, down 5.04% week-on-week and down 33.33% year-on-year [1][13]. Poultry - For white chickens, prices are slightly increasing, with chick prices at 3.23 yuan/bird, up 1.25% week-on-week, and broiler prices at 6.68 yuan/kg, down 0.30% week-on-week [1][14]. - Yellow chicken prices are stable, with prices for various types around 5.0 to 8.7 yuan/kg, showing a decrease of 9.09% to 3.33% week-on-week [1][14]. Beef - The domestic beef market price is 61.13 yuan/kg, down 0.20% week-on-week but up 21.05% year-on-year [2][16]. - The report anticipates a new round of beef price increases and a reversal in the beef cycle by 2025 [2][3]. Raw Milk - The average price of raw milk is 3.04 yuan/kg, stable week-on-week but down 3.19% year-on-year [2][16]. - The report suggests that the acceleration of dairy cow liquidation in Q3 may lead to a price turning point by year-end [2][3]. Soybean Meal - The report indicates that soybean meal prices are supported by supply and demand dynamics, with current prices at 3006 yuan/ton, up 0.6% week-on-week [2][16]. - The report notes that the valuation of soybean meal is at historical lows, with potential catalysts from weather or trade developments [2][3]. Corn - The domestic corn price is 2233 yuan/ton, down 5.06% week-on-week but up 3.24% year-on-year [2][16]. - The report suggests that the supply-demand balance is tightening, with prices expected to maintain a moderate upward trend [2][3]. Sugar - The report highlights an increase in short-term imports of sugar, with prices in Guangxi at 5760 yuan/ton, down 0.35% week-on-week [2][16]. - Attention is drawn to the rhythm of imports and fluctuations in crude oil prices [2][3]. Key Company Recommendations - Recommended companies include: - Livestock: YouRan MuYe, Modern Farming, China Shengmu, Guangming Meat [3]. - Swine: DeKang Agriculture, Muyuan Foods, Huazhong Agriculture, Wens Foodstuffs, and others [3]. - Pet sector: Guibao Pet, Reap Bio [3]. - Feed sector: Haida Group [3]. - Poultry: Lihua Co., Yisheng Co., and Shengnong Development [3].

Core Viewpoint - The agricultural, animal husbandry, and fishery sector showed strong performance on October 10, with the first agricultural ETF (159275) experiencing a significant increase in net subscriptions and notable gains in constituent stocks [1][3]. Market Performance - The agricultural ETF (159275) opened lower but quickly rebounded, closing up 0.8% after reaching a maximum intraday gain of 1.5%. It recorded a net subscription of 52 million units by the end of the day [1]. - Key stocks in the sector, such as TianKang Biological and GuanNong Co., saw increases exceeding 7%, while several others, including XiongDi Technology and ShengWu Shares, rose over 4% [1]. Industry Dynamics - The pig farming industry is undergoing capacity reduction, with a reported decrease of 400,000 breeding sows compared to the previous month and a total reduction of 3.4 million from the peak last year [2]. - Recent outbreaks of African swine fever in Vietnam and Guangxi, China, have heightened risks for the farming sector. A meeting on September 16 emphasized policies aimed at reducing production capacity [2][3]. Investment Outlook - Analysts from Pacific Securities and Dongfang Securities suggest that the current fundamentals and policy changes favor capacity reduction in the pig farming industry, indicating potential long-term investment value as most listed companies are at historical low valuations [3][4]. - The agricultural sector's valuation remains low, with the agricultural ETF's underlying index trading at a price-to-book ratio of 2.61, which is in the lower 34.9% of the past decade, suggesting a favorable entry point for investors [3]. Future Trends - The trend towards improving quality and efficiency in the pig farming industry is expected to continue, with outdated capacities being phased out and market dynamics shifting towards higher prices in the long term [4][5]. - Investment opportunities are identified in various segments, including pig farming, feed, animal health, and crop planting, as the demand for these sectors is anticipated to rise with the recovery of pig stocks [5][6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the growth in China's feed industry, with a projected production of 29.27 million tons in August 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.6% [1] - Cumulative feed production from January to August 2025 is reported at 219.49 million tons, showing a cumulative growth of 6.7% [1] Group 2 - Listed companies in the feed industry include New Hope (000876), Haida Group (002311), Tongwei Co., Ltd. (600438), Dabeinong Technology Group (002385), and Yuehai Feed (001313) [1] - The data source for the feed production statistics is the National Bureau of Statistics, with analysis provided by Zhiyan Consulting [2]

Market Overview - The feed sector increased by 0.5% on September 30, with Petty Co. leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3882.78, up 0.52%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13526.51, up 0.35% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Petty Co. (300673) closed at 17.86, up 3.30% with a trading volume of 101,000 shares and a turnover of 179 million [1] - Other notable gainers include: - Zhongchong Co. (002891) at 53.21, up 2.48% [1] - Boen Group (001366) at 12.63, up 1.61% [1] - Guibao Pet (301498) at 93.93, up 1.47% [1] - Decliners in the feed sector included: - Aonong Bio (603363) at 4.80, down 1.44% [2] - Tiankang Bio (002100) at 7.37, down 1.21% [2] Capital Flow Analysis - The feed sector experienced a net outflow of 55.0035 million from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 45.5314 million [2] - The capital flow for key stocks includes: - Zhongchong Co. had a net inflow of 21.3411 million from institutional investors [3] - Haida Group (002311) saw a net inflow of 5.0677 million from institutional investors [3] - Aonong Bio had a net outflow of 1.444 million from institutional investors [3]

Core Points - The 2025 World Cantonese Business Conference was held in Guangzhou, aiming to unite global Cantonese business forces and promote high-quality development in the Greater Bay Area [8][10] - Three lists were released: "Top 100 Private Enterprises in Guangdong 2025," "Top 100 Private Manufacturing Enterprises in Guangdong 2025," and "Top 50 Private Service Enterprises in Guangdong 2025" [9] - The threshold for entering the "Top 100 Private Enterprises in Guangdong" list was set at 12.332 billion yuan, with 4 companies exceeding 400 billion yuan in revenue and 12 exceeding 100 billion yuan [9] Summary of Lists - The top companies in the "Top 100 Private Enterprises in Guangdong" include Huawei Investment Holding Co., Ltd. with revenue of 862.072 billion yuan, BYD Co., Ltd. with 777.102 billion yuan, and Tencent Holdings Ltd. with 660.257 billion yuan [7] - In the "Top 100 Private Manufacturing Enterprises," Huawei, BYD, and Midea Group Co., Ltd. lead the list, with revenues of 862.072 billion yuan, 777.102 billion yuan, and 409.084 billion yuan respectively [7] - The "Top 50 Private Service Enterprises" is led by Tencent Holdings Ltd. with 660.257 billion yuan, followed by SF Holding Co., Ltd. with 284.420 billion yuan [7] Investment and Economic Impact - The conference attracted nearly a thousand representatives from global Cantonese businesses, resulting in 24 signed projects worth 44.458 billion yuan, covering sectors like artificial intelligence and semiconductors [10] - The Guangdong Provincial Federation of Industry and Commerce initiated a survey to rank large-scale private enterprises based on their 2024 revenue [9] Global Cantonese Business Initiative - The "Global Cantonese Business Cooperation Initiative" was launched, calling for collaboration among global Cantonese businesses to enhance competitiveness and innovation [11][12][13] - The initiative emphasizes the importance of integrating into the Greater Bay Area's development and contributing to high-quality growth in Guangdong [14][15] Notable Statements - TCL's chairman highlighted the company's investment of 82.5 billion yuan in Guangdong over the past five years and its focus on global business expansion [16] - The chairman of the Hong Kong Chinese General Chamber of Commerce noted that the total import and export volume between Guangdong and Hong Kong reached 566.85 billion yuan, reflecting a 7.9% increase [18]

Group 1 - The pork concept sector declined by 0.54%, ranking among the top declines in the concept sectors, with major declines seen in companies like Jingji Zhino, Longda Meishi, and Aonong Biological [1] - Among the 11 stocks that rose, Tianyu Biological, Ronioushan, and New Hope saw increases of 1.49%, 1.27%, and 1.03% respectively [1] - The pork concept sector experienced a net outflow of 292 million yuan, with 21 stocks seeing net outflows, and 9 stocks with outflows exceeding 10 million yuan [2] Group 2 - The leading net outflow was from Muyuan Foods, with a net outflow of 208 million yuan, followed by Aonong Biological, Guangming Meat Industry, and Haida Group with net outflows of 31.48 million yuan, 17.91 million yuan, and 16.87 million yuan respectively [2] - The stocks with the highest net inflows included Wens Foodstuff, Jingji Zhino, and Dabeinong, with net inflows of 33.06 million yuan, 14.71 million yuan, and 12.52 million yuan respectively [2] - The pork concept sector's outflow list highlighted Muyuan Foods, Aonong Biological, Guangming Meat Industry, and Haida Group as the top four companies with significant outflows [2][3]