长江证券研报指出，海大集团2025年国内水产养殖利润与投苗量显著回升，海大集团二季度以来水产料 销量同比增速持续走扩，产品结构改善叠加水产料行业提价，公司饲料业务三季度有望实现量利齐升。 展望中长期，公司2030年规划下再造一个海大集团是大概率事件，且伴随更多海外区域的开拓，公司饲 料出海还有更广阔的空间。公司基于目前公司已开拓的地区，制定了2030年海外饲料销量至少达720万 吨的中期目标，对应海外至少20%的销量复合增速。且随着公司对于泛越南市场、东非与中非市场以及 南美的巴西、智利等市场的后续开拓，公司饲料出海还有更广阔的空间。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural sector [1][4]. Core Views - The report is optimistic about the reversal of the cattle cycle in 2025, with both domestic and international beef and raw milk markets expected to rise [3]. - The pig farming sector is expected to stabilize long-term prices due to reduced competition, with a focus on undervalued leading companies [3]. - The pet consumption market is identified as a growing sector benefiting from demographic changes [3]. - The feed industry, particularly Haida Group, is projected to achieve excess returns due to the recovery in aquaculture [3]. - The poultry sector is expected to see a long-term increase in consumption, with yellow chicken likely to benefit first from domestic demand recovery [3]. Summary by Sections Livestock - Beef prices have started to rise, with the average market price at 61.25 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous week but up 21.29% year-on-year [2][3]. - Raw milk prices are expected to reach a turning point by the end of the year, with current prices at 3.03 yuan/kg, stable week-on-week but down 3.5% year-on-year [2][3]. Swine - The pig price as of September 26 is 12.44 yuan/kg, down 1.50% week-on-week and down 30.73% year-on-year [1][13]. - The price of 7kg piglets is approximately 210.95 yuan/head, down 12.45% week-on-week and down 30.67% year-on-year [1][13]. Poultry - The price of broiler chicks is 3.21 yuan/bird, down 2.13% week-on-week and down 9.07% year-on-year [1][14]. - The price of eggs in major production areas is 3.55 yuan/jin, down 3.01% week-on-week and down 19.50% year-on-year [1][14]. Feed - The domestic soybean spot price is 4061 yuan/ton, up 0.42% week-on-week, while soybean meal is priced at 2998 yuan/ton, down 0.46% week-on-week [2][3]. - The corn price is 2352 yuan/ton, up 0.09% week-on-week and up 8.49% year-on-year [2][3]. Sugar and Rubber - The sugar price in Guangxi is 5780 yuan/ton, down 1.03% week-on-week [2][3]. - The rubber price is expected to stabilize in the short term, with the Thai standard price at 1860 USD/ton, up 1.64% week-on-week [2][3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the agriculture industry [5] Core Viewpoints - The pig farming sector is expected to see a long-term performance improvement due to ongoing capacity reduction driven by both policy and market forces, with key companies continuing to show profitability and increasing dividend rates [3][46] - The current prices for fat pigs and piglets have dropped significantly, leading to widespread losses in the industry, which may trigger a market-driven capacity reduction [3][12] - The planting sector is showing positive fundamentals with an established upward trend in grain prices, highlighting significant investment opportunities [3][46] Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Fundamentals - Pig prices continue to decline, with the average price for fat pigs at 12.45 yuan/kg, down 1.81% week-on-week, and piglet prices at 21.29 yuan/kg, down 4.81% week-on-week [12][54] - The average weight of pigs at slaughter is stabilizing, but the pressure from capacity release continues, leading to a sustained decline in prices [12] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the pig farming sector, highlighting companies such as Muyuan Foods (002714) and Wens Foodstuff Group (300498) as key investment targets [3][46] - For the post-cycle sector, rising pig inventory is expected to boost demand for feed and animal health products, with companies like Haida Group (002311) and Reap Bio (300119) identified as potential beneficiaries [3][46] - In the planting chain, companies like Suqian Agricultural Development (601952) and Beidahuang (600598) are noted for their favorable investment outlook due to rising grain prices [3][46] - The pet food sector is also highlighted for its growth potential, with companies like Guibao Pet (301498) and Zhongchong Co. (002891) recommended for investment [3][46] Market Performance - The agriculture sector underperformed the market, with the agricultural index down 1.97% during the week, compared to a 0.21% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index [48][49] - Key sub-sectors such as feed, animal health, and livestock farming all experienced declines, with livestock farming down 2.14% [48]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The logic of breeding sow reduction is strengthening, and beef and milk are expected to achieve upward linkage in 2026. As of September 26, 2025, the average price of live pigs in China is 12.50 yuan/kg, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.20 yuan/kg and a year-on-year decrease of 5.51% [11][16] - The investment logic for live pigs is marginally improving, driven by both fundamental and policy factors. The price of live pigs is expected to rise in the second half of 2025 due to strong support from previous breeding sow reductions and winter piglet losses [29][32] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - The logic of breeding sow reduction is strengthening, and beef and milk are expected to achieve upward linkage in 2026. The average price of live pigs is 12.50 yuan/kg, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.20 yuan/kg and a year-on-year decrease of 5.51% [11][16] - The average price of beef is 66.27 yuan/kg, with a month-on-month increase of 2.10% and a year-on-year increase of 7.74% [23] Weekly Market Performance (September 22-26) - The agricultural index underperformed the market by 2.18 percentage points, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.21% and the agricultural index falling by 1.97% [34][36] - Leading stocks include ST Jinggu (+15.68%), Huaying Agriculture (+5.76%), and Biological Shares (+3.78%) [34][40] Price Tracking (September 22-26) - The average price of live pigs is 12.45 yuan/kg, down 1.81% from the previous week. The average price of piglets is 21.29 yuan/kg, down 4.87% [46] - The average price of beef is 65.90 yuan/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 0.30 yuan/kg [54] Recommendations - Recommended stocks in the pig sector include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and Juxing Agriculture [20][29] - In the feed sector, recommended stocks include Haida Group and New Hope [29] - In the pet food sector, recommended stocks include Guibao Pet, Zhongchong Shares, and Petty Shares [32]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [42] Core Viewpoints - Recent declines in pig prices and continuous profit decreases for breeding companies will force upstream breeding sows to reduce stock. The current stock of breeding sows remains relatively high, indicating significant potential for future reduction. The valuation of pig breeding companies is still at a historically low level, presenting an opportunity for investment based on capacity reduction expectations. In the chicken breeding sector, overall capacity is relatively high, and profitability remains under pressure. There is a potential for capacity reduction in the future, with attention to marginal profit improvement opportunities. In the feed sector, opportunities arise from increased market concentration and overseas expansion. The domestic pet market still has expansion potential, with leading domestic companies expected to maintain rapid growth [42][43] Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The SW agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry slightly underperformed the CSI 300 index, declining by 5.07% from September 12 to September 25, 2025, lagging behind the index by approximately 6.07 percentage points [10] - All sub-sectors recorded negative returns during this period, with declines of 2.89% in planting, 3.59% in animal health, 4.36% in feed, 5.32% in agricultural product processing, 5.95% in breeding, and 6.73% in fisheries [13][14] 2. Industry Key Data - **Pig Farming**: The average price of external three-way cross pigs fell from 13.31 CNY/kg to 12.51 CNY/kg during the reporting period. The cost of corn was 2365.1 CNY/ton, and soybean meal was 3002 CNY/ton, both showing slight declines. As of September 26, 2025, the profit for self-bred pigs was -74.11 CNY/head, and for purchased piglets, it was -236.57 CNY/head, indicating a decrease in profitability [22][24][27] - **Poultry Farming**: The average price of broiler chicks was 3.29 CNY/chick, showing a slight increase, while the average price of white feather broilers was 6.9 CNY/kg, reflecting a slight decline. The profit for white feather broilers was -2.22 CNY/chick, also indicating a decrease [29][33] - **Aquaculture**: The average wholesale prices for crucian carp and carp were 21.09 CNY/kg and 14.2 CNY/kg, respectively, both showing slight declines [35] 3. Industry News - Argentina announced a temporary zero-export tax on agricultural products, effective from September 23, 2025, until October 31, or until exports reach 7 billion USD. This measure aims to address domestic foreign exchange pressures and currency devaluation, significantly lowering export costs and enhancing competitiveness in the global market [37]

| 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 002311 | 海大集团 | 63.40 | 2.26% | 8.79万 | | 5.55亿 | | 002696 | 自洋股份 | 6.19 | 1.81% | 5.92万 | 3659.13万 | | | 603609 | 末丰股份 | 8.11 | 1.50% | 5.03万 | 4050.86万 | | | 001366 | 播恩集团 | 12.38 | 1.23% | 2.31万 | 2850.07万 | | | 603363 | 傲农生物 | 5.00 | 1.21% | 79.00万 | | 4.00亿 | | 300673 | 佩蒂股份 | 17.53 | 1.15% | 5.80万 | | 1.01亿 | | 000702 | 正虹科技 | 7.21 | 0.84% | 6.78万 | 4897.17万 | | | 301498 | 乖宝宠物 | 93.79 | 0.65% | 1.67万 | | 1.56亿 | ...

农林牧渔行业资金流出榜 | 代码 | 简称 | 今日涨跌幅（%） | 今日换手率（%） | 主力资金流量（万元） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 002714 | 牧原股份 | -2.08 | 1.08 | -18773.08 | | 002385 | 大北农 | -1.21 | 2.24 | -4695.41 | | 002311 | 海大集团 | -0.29 | 0.40 | -4652.00 | | 002772 | 众兴菌业 | -1.91 | 6.58 | -3045.67 | | 300498 | 温氏股份 | -1.32 | 0.83 | -2889.14 | | 002215 | 诺普信 | -1.45 | 2.86 | -2879.91 | | 600201 | 生物股份 | -2.02 | 1.93 | -2796.91 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600598 | 北大荒 | -0.83 | 0.68 | -2698.67 | | 002321 | 华英农业 | -2.68 | 4.17 | -2656. ...

证券之星消息，9月24日饲料板块较上一交易日下跌0.32%，海大集团领跌。当日上证指数报收于 3853.64，上涨0.83%。深证成指报收于13356.14，上涨1.8%。饲料板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 002548 | 金新农 | 5.39 | 4.66% | 100.76万 | | 5.41亿 | | 001366 | 播恩集团 | 12.51 | 2.79% | 3.71万 | 4597.85万 | | | 002100 | 天康生物 | 7.70 | 2.53% | 42.52万 | | 3.25亿 | | 002696 | 自洋股份 | 6.16 | 2.16% | 6.86万 | 4187.84万 | | | 002891 | 中宠股份 | 52.75 | 1.38% | 5.24万 | | 2.77亿 | | 832419 | 路斯股份 | 18.64 | 1.30% | 8851.33 | 1645.95万 | | | 0 ...

Core Insights - The report indicates a narrowing profitability in pig farming while the pet food sector continues to grow [1][5] - The investment rating is maintained as "positive" for the sector [1] Pig Farming - Supply pressure has led to a decline in pig prices, with the average price in July-August 2025 at 14.63 CNY/kg, down from 14.96 CNY/kg in Q2 2025 [5] - The average profitability for self-breeding and purchased piglets in the industry has shifted to losses, with figures of 53.0 CNY/head for self-breeding and -106.7 CNY/head for purchased piglets as of September 19 [5] - The outflow of pigs from listed companies has shown a growth rate of 26.2% in Q2 2025 and 20.0% in July-August 2025 [5] - The report suggests that the ongoing policy guidance for capacity adjustment and weight reduction will likely elevate the price center of pigs in the future [5] - Recommended companies for investment include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff, Dekang Agriculture, Juxing Agriculture, Shennong Group, Tiankang Biological, and Tangrenshen [5] Animal Health - Demand for animal health products is on the rise, with significant year-on-year growth in various vaccines, such as a 30% increase for swine fever vaccines in July-August 2025 [5] - Companies like Keqian Biological and Ruipu Biological are highlighted for their strong internal growth potential due to new product launches [5] Poultry Farming - The price of white feather chickens has rebounded due to seasonal demand and tighter supply, with an average price of 6.92 CNY/kg as of September 19, 2025 [5] - The report notes a 17.66% year-on-year decrease in the number of breeding chickens updated in the first eight months of 2025, indicating potential long-term benefits for the white feather chicken industry [5] - Recommended companies include Shennong Development and Yisheng Livestock [5] Pet Food Sector - Domestic sales of pet food are driven by consumption upgrades and domestic substitution, with a reported growth rate of 11% across major e-commerce platforms from January to August 2025 [5] - The report highlights the introduction of new products and the strengthening of brand power among leading companies [5] - Recommended companies in the pet food sector include Guibao Pet, Zhongchong Co., Petty Co., and Lusi Co. [5]

金秋九月，广州番禺长隆万博商务区迎来一场时尚盛会，顶尖设计力量、头部服装品牌、行业先锋集聚 于此，通过"时尚+"链接多产业，激发消费潜能。 白天是总部企业集聚的"办公高地"，夜晚是市民游客追捧的"消费热土"。经过十余年建设和发展，长隆 万博商务区产业与城市的共生共荣图景越发清晰。 从制造基地迈向时尚之都，再到"总部经济20强"的荣誉加冕、K11 Select的商业赋能，长隆万博商务区 正以空间品质升级为抓手，汇聚总部企业与高端资源，建设世界级"城市会客厅"。 而随着广州东环城际铁路（番禺-白云机场北）、琶莲城际铁路的开通运营，长隆万博商务区不仅是文 商旅深度融合的活力中心，更将联动广州南站，共筑粤港澳大湾区宜居宜业宜游的优质生活圈。 从制造基地迈向时尚之都 连续三届举办广东时装周 2024年纺织服装产业规模同比增长16.48% 9月19日，2025广东时装周-秋季（第36届）在番禺启幕，短短十天内超80场主题活动，200余家品牌24 小时全球展销，吸引30余个国家采购商，达成意向合作超10亿元，多维度展现广东时尚产业在品牌引 领、智能制造、区域协同与多元融合等领域的新质成果。 自2023年底签约落户番禺以来， ...