Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.13% on July 9, with 17 out of the 28 sectors rising, led by Media and Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery, which increased by 1.35% and 0.65% respectively [2] - The sectors with the largest declines were Non-ferrous Metals and Basic Chemicals, which dropped by 2.26% and 0.85% respectively [2] Capital Flow Analysis - The main capital outflow from the two markets totaled 38.536 billion yuan, with only three sectors experiencing net inflows: Media (1.055 billion yuan), Retail (864 million yuan), and Construction Decoration (40.34 million yuan) [2] - The Electronic sector saw the largest net outflow, amounting to 7.789 billion yuan, followed by Non-ferrous Metals with 5.412 billion yuan [2] Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery Sector - The Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery sector rose by 0.65% despite a net capital outflow of 437 million yuan [3] - Out of 103 stocks in this sector, 40 stocks increased, with one hitting the daily limit, while 55 stocks declined [3] - The top three stocks with net inflows were Xinwufeng (31.4665 million yuan), Haida Group (28.3706 million yuan), and Juxing Agriculture (21.9941 million yuan) [3][4] Top Gainers and Losers in Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery - **Top Gainers**: - Xinwufeng: +0.65%, 4.20% turnover, 31.4665 million yuan inflow [4] - Juxing Agriculture: +0.76%, 4.49% turnover, 21.9941 million yuan inflow [4] - **Top Losers**: - Muyuan Foods: -3.27%, 1.81% turnover, 71.5922 million yuan outflow [5] - Guolian Aquatic Products: -1.76%, 8.74% turnover, 45.2607 million yuan outflow [5]

Core Viewpoint - The company expects a significant increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, driven by strong sales growth in its feed business and improved operational efficiency [1][2]. Financial Performance Summary - The estimated net profit for the first half of 2025 is projected to be between 250 million and 280 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 17.64% to 31.76% [1][2]. - The estimated net profit after deducting non-recurring gains is expected to be between 251 million and 281 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 23.48% to 38.23% [1][2]. - The basic earnings per share are projected to be between 1.50 yuan and 1.68 yuan, compared to 1.28 yuan in the same period last year [1][2]. Operational Highlights - The company achieved a feed sales volume of approximately 13.65 million tons in the first half of 2025, an increase of 2.84 million tons, or about 26% year-on-year [2]. - Sales in overseas markets grew by approximately 40% year-on-year, indicating strong international demand [2]. - The company has improved domestic feed production capacity utilization and market share, enhancing its competitive advantage through operational efficiency and cost savings [2]. Business Segment Performance - The company's pig farming business remains profitable under a light-asset and risk-controlled model [2]. - However, the poultry slaughtering segment recorded losses due to low poultry prices in the first half of the year [2].

Key Points - Juhua Co., Ltd. expects a net profit of 1.97 billion to 2.13 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 136% to 155% [1] - The main reasons for the significant profit growth include the continuous recovery in the prices of fluorinated refrigerants and stable growth in production and sales of core products [2] - Haida Group anticipates a net profit of 2.5 billion to 2.8 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 17.64% to 31.76% [3][4] - Huagong Technology expects a net profit of 890 million to 950 million yuan for the first half of 2025, indicating a year-on-year growth of 42.43% to 52.03% [5][6] - Yun Aluminum Co., Ltd. forecasts a net profit of 2.7 billion to 2.8 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, showing a year-on-year increase of 7.19% to 11.16% [7][8] - Saint Farm anticipates a net profit of 850 million to 950 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 732.89% to 830.88% [13] - Dinglong Co., Ltd. expects a net profit of 290 million to 320 million yuan for the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 33.12% to 46.9% [14] - Yuxiu Capital forecasts a net profit of 1.473 billion to 1.575 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, indicating a year-on-year growth of 45% to 55% [15] - Haohua Technology expects a net profit of 590 million to 650 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 59.30% to 75.50% [16] - Huace Navigation anticipates a net profit of 320 million to 335 million yuan for the first half of 2025, indicating a year-on-year growth of 27.37% to 33.34% [18] - Dajin Heavy Industry expects a net profit of 510 million to 570 million yuan for the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 193.32% to 227.83% [20] - Shandong Steel anticipates a net profit of approximately 12.71 million yuan for the first half of 2025, marking a turnaround from loss to profit [22]

海大集团（002311）公告，预计2025年1月1日至2025年6月30日归属于上市公司股东的净利润为25亿元– 28亿元，比上年同期的21.25亿元增长17.64%-31.76%。 ...

证券代码：002311 证券简称：海大集团 公告编号：2025-034 广东海大集团股份有限公司 2025 年半年度业绩预告 2、业绩预告情况 （1）2025 年半年度预计业绩情况 □扭亏为盈 同向上升 □同向下降 | 项 目 | 本报告期 | | | | 上年同期 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | （2025 | 年 1-6 | 月） | | （2024 年 1-6 | 月） | | 归属于上市公司 | 盈利： 250,000.00 | | 万元–280,000.00 | 万元 | 盈利：212,504.84 | 万元 | | 股东的净利润 | 比上年同期增长： | 17.64% | - | 31.76% | | | | 扣除非经常性损 益后的净利润 | 盈利：251,000.00 | | 万元–281,000.00 | 万元 | 盈利：203,279.46 | 万元 | | | 比上年同期增长： | 23.48% | - | 38.23% | | | | 基本每股收益 | 盈利：1.50 元/股 - | 1.68 | 元/股 | | 盈 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Increase" for the agricultural sector [6] Core Viewpoints - The agricultural sector outperformed the market by 1.01 percentage points during the week of June 30 to July 4, 2025, with a weekly increase of 2.55% [15][17] - The pig farming sector is highlighted as a key investment opportunity due to the recovery of breeding profits and the ongoing rise in pig prices [4][2] - The report emphasizes the importance of cost control for listed pig farming companies to navigate the pig cycle effectively [4] Summary by Sections Market Review - The agricultural sector index closed at 2,729.26, ranking 7th among 31 first-level industries in terms of weekly performance [15][17] - The fishery sector showed the best performance with a 5.13% increase, followed by breeding, agricultural product processing, feed, and planting sectors with respective increases of 3.12%, 2.96%, 2.30%, and 1.63% [17][19] Industry Dynamics - Pig prices continued to rise, with the national average price reaching 15.35 yuan/kg, a week-on-week increase of 4.28% [2] - Self-breeding profits increased to 119.72 yuan/head, while external piglet breeding profits improved to -26.26 yuan/head [2] - In the poultry sector, chicken prices remained under pressure due to high inventory levels, with broiler chick prices dropping to 1.36 yuan/chick, a 20% decrease week-on-week [2] Agricultural Products - Prices for wheat, corn, and soybean meal showed a week-on-week increase, with wheat averaging 2,451.06 yuan/ton (up 0.19%), corn at 2,367.14 yuan/ton (up 0.61%), and soybean meal at 2,928.00 yuan/ton (up 0.76%) [3][34] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the pig farming sector, particularly companies with strong cost control such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and others [4] - In the poultry sector, it recommends looking at integrated industry leaders like Shennong Development and Lihua Stock for yellow feathered chickens [4] - For feed, it highlights industry leaders like Haida Group and regional leaders like Hefeng Stock as beneficiaries of the recovery in livestock demand [4] - The report also emphasizes the importance of food security, recommending companies like Suqian Agricultural Development and Beidahuang [4]

3 July 2025 Equity Research Report China's hog industry Equities Decreasing weight; stable sow inventories Hog weight reduction has had only a limited impact on prices in 2025. According to Sublime China Information (SCI), the average hog weight in China increased in 5M25; listed companies are following this trend. We believe the y-o-y increase in hog weight is motivated by the higher profit attained from larger hogs vs smaller hogs in 5M25. Although hog farmers are being encouraged to reduce the average we ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural sector [4] Core Views - The report is optimistic about the reversal of the beef cycle, recommending investments in pet products and Hai Da Group, while focusing on undervalued leading companies in the pig and poultry sectors [3] - The pork production capacity is expected to remain stable, with strong support for pig prices in 2025 [1][3] - The beef market is showing resilience during the off-season, with expectations for a bullish cycle in 2025 [1][3] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Overview and Data Summary - Weekly pig price as of July 4 is 15.29 CNY/kg, up 5.01% week-on-week [1] - Chicken prices are experiencing a decline, with broiler prices at 6.18 CNY/kg, down 10% week-on-week [1] - The average beef price is 59.35 CNY/kg, stable week-on-week and up 27.63% year-on-year [1] 2. Fundamental Tracking 2.1 Pork - Pork prices are expected to maintain low volatility, with a forecast for continued market stability in 2025 [1][14] 2.2 Poultry - The parent stock of broilers is decreasing, indicating a structural change in consumption [1][15] 2.3 Beef - The beef market is expected to benefit from a cyclical upturn, with prices remaining strong [1][16] 2.4 Soybean Meal - Current soybean prices are stable at 3926 CNY/ton, with soybean meal prices at 2928 CNY/ton, up 0.76% week-on-week [2][16] 2.5 Corn - Corn prices are expected to see moderate increases, with current prices at 2443 CNY/ton, up 0.37% week-on-week [2][16] 2.6 Sugar - Sugar prices are slightly increasing, with current prices at 6050 CNY/ton, up 0.33% week-on-week [2][16] 3. Company Profit Forecasts and Investment Ratings - Companies such as Guangming Meat Industry, Muyuan Foods, and Hai Da Group are rated as "Outperform" with respective EPS forecasts for 2025 [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The pig price has retreated from its high, with the latest price at 14.94 CNY/kg and the average weight at 128.64 kg. The complete cost for leading enterprises has decreased to around 12 CNY/kg, indicating a potential for profit maintenance and valuation recovery [6][17][18] - The report emphasizes a shift from cyclical thinking to focusing on financial performance, suggesting that investment should transition from "cyclical thinking" to "quality and price" [18] - The report recommends focusing on companies with a "platform + ecosystem" model, highlighting DeKang Agriculture and Livestock as a representative, along with leading pig farming companies such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuff Group [18] Summary by Sections 1. Pig Industry - The latest pig price is 14.94 CNY/kg, with a slight increase in average weight to 128.64 kg. The price of 15 kg piglets remains stable at around 530 CNY/head. The industry is experiencing a short-term rebound in prices after a slight decline [6][17] - The official number of breeding sows in May was 40.42 million, a year-on-year increase of 1.15%, indicating a stable production capacity [7][17] - The report suggests that the government's commitment to stabilizing pig prices is strong, and capacity regulation may continue to increase [7][17] 2. Poultry Industry - The price of parent stock chicks remains high, with the latest price at 47.93 CNY, a week-on-week increase of 5.25%. The price of broilers is 2.95 CNY/kg, down 12% week-on-week and 18% year-on-year [19] - The industry faces a "high capacity, weak consumption" contradiction, leading to a reduction in production capacity among breeding farms [19] - The report highlights two main lines of focus: quality imported breeding stock leaders and fully integrated industry leaders [19] 3. Feed Industry - The report recommends Hai Da Group, noting a cash flow turning point and high overseas growth potential. The demand for aquaculture feed is expected to recover in 2025 [20][22] - The report indicates that the domestic capital expansion phase has ended, and leading companies are entering a new phase of stable cash flow [21][22] 4. Pet Industry - The report discusses the impact of potential tariffs on the pet industry, suggesting that the actual impact will be limited due to high profit margins and overseas factory layouts [23] - Companies with strong performance in their own brands, such as Guibao and Zhongchong, are highlighted as key focuses [23] 5. Agricultural Products - The USDA report indicates a slight reduction in soybean planting area for 2025, with a forecast of 83.4 million acres, a year-on-year decrease of 4% [24] - The report emphasizes that agricultural products are less affected by tariffs, and a reduction in imports may help prices rise from low levels [24] 6. Market and Price Situation - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index closed at 3982 points, up 1.54% from the previous week. The Agricultural and Forestry Index closed at 2729 points, up 2.55% [25][28] - The report notes that the aquaculture sector performed the best with a 5.13% increase [25]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The supply contraction and macroeconomic catalysts are expected to provide strong support for pig prices in Q3 2025. The average selling price of pigs on July 4 was 15.37 yuan/kg, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.71 yuan/kg and a 4.84% rise [12][13] - The central economic committee's recent meeting emphasized the need to promote high-quality development of the marine economy, which is expected to benefit the aquaculture sector [21][36] - The agricultural index outperformed the market by 1.14 percentage points during the week of June 27 to July 4, with the agricultural index rising by 2.55% compared to a 1.40% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index [32][34] Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Dynamics - The average daily slaughter volume of pigs was 133,800 heads, a decrease of 7,300 heads from the previous week, indicating a seasonal decline in demand due to rising temperatures [12] - The supply side continues to contract due to previous over-culling and losses from piglets after the Spring Festival, which is expected to support prices [12] Price Trends - The average price of pigs increased to 15.35 yuan/kg, with a week-on-week rise of 0.63 yuan/kg. The price of piglets decreased to 31.33 yuan/kg, down by 0.27 yuan/kg [6][39] - The price of corn increased to 2,511 yuan/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 8 yuan/ton, while soybean meal prices decreased to 2,926 yuan/ton, down by 27 yuan/ton [4][16] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in companies such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and New Hope Liuhe, which are expected to benefit from the improving investment logic in the pig sector [27] - In the feed sector, companies like Haida Group and New Hope are recommended due to domestic market benefits and strong overseas demand [27] Market Performance - The aquaculture sector led the market gains, with stocks like Guolian Aquatic Products rising by 12.22%, Shennong Technology by 7.31%, and Dongrui Co. by 6.92% during the week [32][35]