Core Viewpoint - The performance landscape of China's major express delivery companies is becoming clearer as they report their 2025 operational data, indicating a shift towards high-quality development in the industry, with significant growth in business volume and revenue [1][6]. Group 1: Performance of Major Companies - SF Holding achieved a milestone in 2025 with annual revenue surpassing 300 billion yuan, driven by logistics and international business growth, despite a slight decline in per-package revenue [2][6]. - YTO Express maintained its leading position within the Tongda system, reporting 683.18 billion yuan in revenue and 311.44 billion packages delivered, with a focus on cost control and international expansion [3][6]. - Shentong Express emerged as a significant player in 2025, with a 28.23% year-on-year increase in revenue to 58.36 billion yuan, benefiting from the consolidation of Daniao Logistics [3][6]. - Yunda Express experienced a decline in package volume but managed to increase per-package revenue, indicating a strategic shift towards rational development and profitability [4][6]. Group 2: Industry Trends and Developments - The express delivery industry is transitioning from low-price competition to high-quality development, with companies prioritizing profitability over volume [6][8]. - Technological advancements and green transformation are becoming key drivers of industry growth, with increased investment in smart logistics and sustainable practices [7][8]. - Internationalization and collaborative development are emerging as strategic priorities for leading companies, enhancing their global service networks and competitiveness [7][8]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The ongoing optimization of industry structure is expected to enhance the resource integration capabilities and brand advantages of leading companies, while compressing the survival space for smaller firms [8]. - Competition surrounding service upgrades, technological innovation, and international expansion is anticipated to intensify, positioning the Chinese express delivery industry for robust resilience and growth potential in the global logistics market [8].

Group 1: Company Insights - Huace Testing expects a net profit of 1.013-1.021 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 10%-11% [4] - The company anticipates a Q4 net profit of 201-209 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 15%-20% year-on-year [5] - The company is focusing on strategic mergers and international expansion, which will gradually release growth momentum [5] Group 2: Military Industry Developments - Major military groups in China have held annual meetings to set goals for the 14th Five-Year Plan and outline key tasks for 2026 [7] - China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation emphasizes breakthroughs in reusable rocket technology and the development of commercial aerospace [8] - China Commercial Aircraft Corporation is advancing the C919 aircraft's certification and commercial operations, with growing interest from Southeast Asian countries [9] Group 3: Cross-Border E-commerce Performance - The global cross-border e-commerce market is projected to reach 551.23 billion USD by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 15.44% from 2025 to 2034 [13] - Jihua Co. expects a net profit of 272-291 million yuan for 2025, a significant increase of 50%-60% year-on-year [13] - Huakai Yibai anticipates a net profit of 132-162 million yuan for 2025, with improved inventory management leading to a recovery in gross margin [13] Group 4: Coal Industry Trends - In Q4 2025, coal sector holdings in actively managed funds increased to 0.36%, indicating a low level of crowding and significant value [17] - The coal price is expected to be supported by tight supply and demand conditions, with a potential upward trend in the price center [19] - Major coal companies are initiating buybacks and asset injection plans, reflecting confidence in the sector's growth and stability [20] Group 5: Banking Sector Performance - Industrial Bank expects a revenue growth of 0.24% and a net profit growth of 0.34% for 2025, with asset quality remaining stable [22] - The bank's asset scale is projected to exceed 11 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.57% [23] - The non-performing loan ratio is stable at 1.08%, with significant reductions in new non-performing loans in key sectors [23] Group 6: Renewable Energy and Technology - Mingyang Smart Energy plans to acquire Dehua Chip, a leader in satellite energy systems, to enhance its capabilities in space photovoltaic technology [25] - The space photovoltaic market is expected to grow significantly, with Mingyang's revenue projected to reach 40.879 billion yuan by 2025, reflecting a 51% year-on-year increase [27] - The company aims to leverage its existing technologies to create synergies with Dehua Chip, enhancing its competitive position in the market [27] Group 7: Robotics Industry Developments - Tesla plans to start selling its humanoid robot Optimus by the end of next year, with ongoing testing to ensure reliability and safety [33] - The humanoid robot industry is expected to see significant growth, with over 140 companies and more than 330 products launched in 2025 [40] - Microsoft has launched its first robot-specific AI model, Rho-alpha, which enhances the adaptability and reliability of robots [41]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the transportation industry, indicating an expectation of relative performance that exceeds the relevant market indices over the next 12 months [10]. Core Insights - In Q4 2025, the transportation sector's public fund heavy holding ratio decreased by 0.03 percentage points to 1.09%, primarily due to significant reductions in logistics and supply chain investments, while the aviation sector saw a slight increase in allocation [2][6]. - The number of heavily held stocks in the transportation sector increased to 60, with a total market value of 21.49 billion yuan, reflecting a 15.3% quarter-on-quarter increase [6]. - The transportation sector index outperformed major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300, and ChiNext Index, with a quarterly increase of 3.4% [6]. Summary by Sections Fund Holdings - The transportation sector's allocation is ranked 17th among 32 primary industries, indicating an underweight status compared to the standard allocation ratio of 2.46% [6]. - The allocation ratios for sub-sectors in Q4 2025 are as follows: Aviation (0.50%), Logistics and Supply Chain (0.34%), Rail and Road (0.12%), Maritime (0.08%), and Transportation Infrastructure (0.05%) [6][14]. Heavy Holdings - The top five heavily held stocks in the transportation sector accounted for 57.7% of the total market value, with the top ten accounting for 79.2%, indicating an increase in concentration [7]. - The leading stocks by market value in Q4 2025 were China Eastern Airlines (4.55 billion yuan), Southern Airlines (3.08 billion yuan), and SF Express (2.29 billion yuan) [7][22]. Northbound Capital - Northbound capital holdings in the transportation sector increased to 4.3%, with the aviation sector being the largest segment at 11.61 billion yuan, representing 27.5% of the transportation industry [8][26]. - The top five stocks with the highest foreign ownership ratios included Sichuan Chengyu, Southern Airlines, and Iron Dragon Logistics, with foreign ownership ratios of 15.4%, 14.6%, and 8.1% respectively [8][26].

投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 运输《航空春运预售启动，预计因私需求旺盛》 2026.01.23 运输《春运预售开始启动，预计需求保持旺盛》 2026.01.20 运输《航空春运预售启动，原油运价大幅飙升》 2026.01.18 运输《原油运价大幅调涨，干散运价淡季回落》 2026.01.18 运输《航空深入"反内卷"，原油运价快速回升》 2026.01.11 证 券 研 究 报 告 股 票 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 春运客流再创新高，原油运价维持高位 [Table_Industry] 运输 ——国泰海通交运周观察 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 岳鑫(分析师) | 0755-23976758 | yuexin@gtht.com | S0880514030006 | | | 陈亦凡(研究助理) | 0755-23976151 | chenyifan2@gtht.com | S0880124070025 | [Table_subIndustry] | 本报告导 ...

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for key companies including SF Holding, Cao Cao Travel, and Jitu Express [8]. Core Insights - The report highlights the explosive growth of instant retail driven by major companies' investments, suggesting that investors should seize opportunities in SF Express's urban delivery segment [1]. - The logistics sector is expected to benefit from the rapid growth of overseas e-commerce and the ongoing recovery in domestic demand, with a focus on companies like Jitu Express and Zhongtong Express [3][18]. - The aviation sector is projected to see a historical high in passenger volume during the 2026 Spring Festival, with a year-on-year growth of approximately 5.3% [11][12]. Summary by Sections Weekly View and Market Review - The transportation sector index rose by 1.76%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.93 percentage points [21]. - The top-performing sub-sectors included warehousing logistics, road freight, and public transport, with increases of 6.05%, 5.91%, and 4.09% respectively [21]. Aviation - The Civil Aviation Administration of China forecasts a record 95 million passengers during the 2026 Spring Festival, with domestic and international routes showing significant growth [11][12]. - The aviation sector is expected to maintain a positive outlook due to low supply growth and recovering demand, with a focus on business travel and international flight recovery [12]. Shipping and Ports - The VLCC market is experiencing high rates due to geopolitical risks, with daily rates reaching $107,937 on the Middle East route [13]. - Dry bulk freight rates are recovering, with the BDI index reaching 1,762 points [14]. - The report emphasizes the potential for LNG transport to enter a different economic cycle, highlighting companies like CIMC Anrui [16]. Logistics - The report identifies two main investment themes in the express delivery sector: overseas expansion driven by e-commerce growth and domestic market consolidation amid competitive pressures [3][18]. - In December 2025, the express delivery industry handled 18.2 billion packages, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.3% [19]. - The report notes a divergence in performance among leading express companies, with Zhongtong and YTO showing growth while SF Express faced a decline due to strategic business adjustments [20].

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2026 01 25 年 月 日 交通运输 增持（维持） 行业走势 -10% -2% 6% 14% 22% 30% 2025-01 2025-05 2025-09 2026-01 交通运输 沪深300 行情回顾：本周（2026.1.19-2026.1.23）交通运输板块行业指数上涨 1.76%， 跑赢上证指数 0.93 个百分点（上证指数上涨 0.84%）。从申万交通运输行业 三级分类看，涨幅前三名的板块分别为仓储物流、公路货运、公交，涨幅分别 为 6.05%、5.91%、4.09%；没有细分板块下跌。 出行：根据民航局预测，2026 年春运民航客运量有望迎历史新高。继续看好 "扩内需"及"反内卷"下航空板块中长期景气度。运力供给维持低增速、需 求持续恢复，供需缺口缩小叠加油价中枢下移、人民币走强及政策的呵护，静 待票价持续修复、航司盈利不断改善。持续跟踪需求修复及跨境游情况，关注 公商务出行需求及国际航班恢复情况。 航运港口：VLCC 高位运行；干散货运价回升；集运主要航线运价回落。VLCC 市场，本周中东航线 2 月上旬出货过半，地缘风险溢价发酵，船东 ...

一年一度的"快递不打烊"伴随春节假期将至。记者了解到，日前，多家物流企业发布春节期间服务公告。 顺丰速运、京东物流、德邦等企业公告显示， 将保障春节寄递服务需求，并加收高峰期资源调节费，以应对资源调配需求。跨越速运称，春节期间正常取派货，但部分地区不承诺时效。而壹米滴答、 顺心快运（顺丰集团旗下）将于春节假期暂停揽收件。 顺丰、京东快运、德邦 春节加收资源调节费 顺丰公告称，因节日期间资源调配受限、极端天气变化等多重因素，快件时效或将受到不同程度影响，将对快件和资源灵活调度匹配，动态调节部分服务 收费标准。其中： 2026年1月19日-2月15日，顺丰对部分发运20kg（含）以上产品的客户收取0.1-1.5元/kg资源调节费；2026年2月16日-2月23日春节假期 期间，顺丰对寄递服务加收资源调节费。部分长期深度合作的月结客户、会员客户可享受资源调节费优惠或减免政策。 (顺丰公告) 京东物流发布的《快运产品服务公告》显示，受高峰期交通及各地调度资源影响， 在2026年1月19日-2026年2月23日期间，将在特快重货产品原价格基础 上加收0.1-1.2元/kg的高峰期资源调节费。对部分合作月结的客户，将按照 ...

【#多家快递春节正常上班#】#春节寄快递或将涨价# 春节将至，"快递不打烊"服务如期被推出。日 前，多家物流企业发布春节期间服务公告。顺丰速运、京东物流、德邦等企业公告显示，将保障春节寄 递服务需求，并加收高峰期资源调节费，以应对资源调配需求。跨越速运称，春节期间正常取派货，但 部分地区不承诺时效。顺丰公告称，因节日期间资源调配受限、极端天气变化等多重因素，快件时效或 将受到不同程度影响，将对快件和资源灵活调度匹配，动态调节部分服务收费标准。其中：2026年1月 19日-2月15日，顺丰对部分发运20kg（含）以上产品的客户收取0.1-1.5元/kg资源调节费；2026年2月16 日-2月23日春节假期期间，顺丰对寄递服务加收资源调节费。部分长期深度合作的月结客户、会员客户 可享受资源调节费优惠或减免政策。京东物流发布的《快运产品服务公告》显示，受高峰期交通及各地 调度资源影响，在2026年1月19日-2026年2月23日期间，将在特快重货产品原价格基础上加收0.1-1.2 元/kg的高峰期资源调节费。对部分合作月结的客户，将按照相应的合作产品，分别在不同时间周期加 收不同标准的资源调节费。德邦发布公告称，受 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2026 年 01 月 25 日 油轮制裁力度仍在加大，2025 年快递业务量同比增长 13.6% 招商交通运输行业周报 周期/交通运输 本周关注：航运方面，本周油运运价延续高位，散货运价好转；基础设施方面， 优选个股布局红利资产；航空方面，关注 26 年行业基本面上行趋势；快递方面， 关注 26 年行业竞争格局和估值修复潜力。 推荐（维持） 行业规模 | 王春环 | S1090524060003 | wangchunhuan@cmschina.com.c | | --- | --- | --- | | n | 孙修远 | S1090524070005 | | sunxiuyuan@cmschina.com.cn | 肖欣晨 | S1090522010001 | | xiaoxinchen@cmschina.com.cn | 刘若琮 | S1090524110003 | | liuruocong@cmschina.com.cn | 张瑜玲 | S1090525060006 | | zhangyuling2@cmschina.com.cn | | | | | | 占比% | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for major airlines including China Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, Spring Airlines, and others, while recommending "Hold" for YTO Express and Shentong Express [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights a positive outlook for the aviation sector driven by multiple factors, including the upcoming Spring Festival travel peak, the appreciation of the RMB easing cost pressures, and the increase in visa-free countries for Chinese citizens, which is expected to boost international travel demand [4][7]. - The anticipated passenger transport volume during the 2026 Spring Festival is projected to reach a historical high of 95 million, with a daily average of 2.38 million passengers, reflecting a year-on-year growth of approximately 5.3% [4]. - The report emphasizes the cyclical recovery of the civil aviation market, with expectations of rising passenger load factors and ticket prices, driven by a gradual recovery in demand and limited capacity growth [4][7]. Summary by Sections Aviation and Airports - Daily flight operations from January 19 to January 23 showed slight fluctuations, with Eastern Airlines and Southern Airlines operating 2,245.80 and 2,221.80 flights respectively, while year-on-year comparisons indicate a decrease in operations [4]. - The average aircraft utilization rates during the same period were reported, with Spring Airlines achieving the highest at 9.20 hours per day, although all airlines showed a decline compared to the previous year [4]. - The report suggests that the upcoming Spring Festival will significantly enhance market demand, particularly from student travelers, as the holiday season approaches [4][7]. Logistics and Express Delivery - The report notes a divergence in the growth rates of express delivery companies, with a total of approximately 4.073 billion packages collected from January 12 to January 18, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 11.82% [7]. - It highlights the ongoing high-quality development of the express delivery industry, with policies aimed at reducing competition ("anti-involution") expected to improve profitability [7]. - The report recommends focusing on express companies with significant profit elasticity, such as Shentong Express and YTO Express, as well as those with strong growth potential in overseas markets like Jitu Express [7]. Infrastructure - The report tracks various transportation metrics, including highway and railway freight volumes, indicating a mixed performance across sectors [7]. - It suggests that the low-interest-rate environment will continue to support investment in infrastructure, with a focus on high-quality assets [7]. - Specific recommendations include investing in highway companies like Shandong Highway and Anhui Expressway, as well as railway companies like Daqin Railway and Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway [7]. Shipping and Trade - The report indicates a mixed performance in shipping rates, with the SCFI index showing a decline of 7.39% week-on-week and a year-on-year drop of 28.73% [7]. - It emphasizes the potential for investment opportunities in oil and bulk shipping due to geopolitical factors and structural demand growth [7]. - Recommendations include focusing on companies like COSCO Shipping Energy and COSCO Shipping Holdings for oil shipping investments, as well as Hai Tong Development for bulk shipping [7].