Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the shipping industry, recommending companies such as China Merchants Energy and COSCO Shipping Energy [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in charter rates for VLCCs, which rose by 4.62% to $62,250 per day, and Cape rates increased by 5.37% to $26,475 per day, indicating a strong correlation between commodity prices and shipping rates [3]. - New ship prices are rising alongside second-hand ship prices, with the new ship composite index increasing by 0.07 to 184.76 points, suggesting a favorable market for shipbuilders [3]. - The report emphasizes the resilience of the shipping market, particularly in oil and bulk shipping, with expectations of continued demand driven by geopolitical factors and commodity price fluctuations [3]. Summary by Sections Shipping Market Performance - The shipping index increased by 1.76%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.38 percentage points [4]. - The coastal dry bulk freight index in China rose by 0.84%, while the Shanghai export container freight index fell by 7.39% [4]. Oil Shipping - VLCC rates are currently around $100,000 per day, with a recent decline of 11% in average rates to $105,090 per day, indicating potential volatility in the market [3]. - The report notes that while VLCC rates may adjust, smaller oil tanker rates remain supported due to high demand [3]. Dry Bulk Shipping - The report indicates a rebound in dry bulk rates, particularly driven by increased grain exports from South America, with the BDI index recording a 12.4% increase [3]. - Capesize rates increased by 16.1%, reflecting strong demand in the Pacific market [3]. Container Shipping - The report observes a seasonal decline in container shipping rates as the peak season ends, with the SCFI index dropping by 7.4% [3]. - The resumption of services in the Red Sea has been noted, but the market remains cautious due to geopolitical uncertainties [3]. Air Transportation - The report highlights a significant supply constraint in aircraft manufacturing, with an aging fleet and increasing passenger demand expected to enhance airline profitability [3]. - Airlines are recommended for investment due to their strong demand elasticity and potential for significant earnings growth [3]. Logistics and Express Delivery - The report anticipates a concentration of market share and profits among leading express delivery companies, with a focus on ZTO Express and YTO Express [3]. - The logistics sector shows resilience, with steady growth in freight volumes reported [3].

证券之星消息，1月23日物流板块较上一交易日下跌0.23%，炬申股份领跌。当日上证指数报收于 4136.16，上涨0.33%。深证成指报收于14439.66，上涨0.79%。物流板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 001202 | 炬申股份 | 20.30 | -8.60% | 36.06万 | 7.471Z | | 002485 | ST雪发 | 4.37 | -2.67% | 7.77万 | 3457.05万 | | 920351 | や米濃海 | 22.99 | -1.67% | 2.61万 | 6035.13万 | | 600057 | 厦门象屿 | 8.40 | -1.64% | 0 32.12万 | 2.71亿 | | 002352 | 顺丰控股 | 39.15 | -1.31% | 40.63万 | 15.96 Z | | 600233 | 圆通速递 | 17.54 | -1.18% | 19.35万 | 3.39亿 | | 603836 | 海程 ...

2026年春节来临之际，一批"新员工"成为快递网点的得力干将。1月22日，北京商报记者从多位快递从 业者获悉，为了应对年货节礼盒等重货激增以及春节经营成本高企等问题，部分快递网点投入无人车协 助快递员作业，将派件时间缩短超3个小时，运输成本下降五成。无人车或将成为快递企业应对春节压 力的新解法。 当前，极兔、中通、京东物流等多家企业加速无人车的规模性应用，使用场景覆盖产业带、园区和校 园。有无人车企业预计，2026年春节期间，无人车配送将活跃于快递、商超、医药等民生行业。 礼盒年货占比上升 春节临近，快递网点的压力只增不减。在极兔张家口沽源县领先网点，负责人李小双正在为年货节促销 忙碌着。在平日，网点的日均件量在6000票左右。今年年货节，李小双预计网点日均可能会增长1000票 左右，重货、大公斤包裹增量明显。 江西中通南昌县二部网点的一位负责人也深有同感。他向北京商报记者表示，相比往年，今年年货节有 两个明显特点，"一是峰值更平、周期更长，使得货量高峰从以往的'尖峰'变为'高原'，持续压力更大； 二是品类更杂、体积更大，生鲜年货、礼盒箱装的占比显著增加，对网点运输的承载力和灵活性提出了 更高要求"。 当前， ...

Core Viewpoint - The logistics industry is increasingly adopting unmanned vehicles to address the challenges posed by the upcoming Spring Festival, including the surge in heavy packages and rising operational costs, with companies like Jitu, Zhongtong, and JD Logistics leading the way in this transformation [1][6]. Group 1: Unmanned Vehicle Implementation - Unmanned vehicles are being deployed to assist delivery personnel, significantly reducing delivery times by over 3 hours and cutting transportation costs by 50% [1][6]. - Companies are scaling up the use of unmanned vehicles, with Jitu, Zhongtong, and JD Logistics expanding their applications in various scenarios, including industrial zones and campuses [7][8]. - JD Logistics has reported a 21% reduction in transportation costs and a 1-hour decrease in average delivery time since implementing unmanned vehicles [7]. Group 2: Increased Demand During Spring Festival - The Spring Festival is expected to see a notable increase in package volume, with some logistics points anticipating a rise of approximately 1,000 packages per day compared to previous years [2][3]. - The characteristics of this year's Spring Festival include a more prolonged peak period and a greater variety of larger packages, which places higher demands on logistics capabilities [2][4]. - The introduction of unmanned vehicles is seen as a solution to manage the increased workload during this busy season, allowing for more efficient operations [5][6]. Group 3: Cost Management Strategies - Logistics companies are adjusting their operational strategies to manage increased costs during the Spring Festival, including hiring temporary workers and implementing resource adjustment fees for heavier packages [4][6]. - The use of unmanned vehicles is expected to alleviate some of the financial pressures by reducing the need for dedicated drivers and vehicles for short-haul tasks [5][6]. - Unmanned vehicles are projected to save approximately 0.1 yuan per package in transportation costs, contributing to overall cost efficiency [6].

Core Viewpoint - The logistics industry is increasingly adopting unmanned vehicles to address the challenges posed by the upcoming Spring Festival, including the surge in heavy packages and rising operational costs, with companies like Jitu, Zhongtong, and JD Logistics leading the way in this transformation [1][8]. Group 1: Unmanned Vehicle Implementation - Unmanned vehicles are being deployed to assist delivery personnel, significantly reducing delivery times by over 3 hours and cutting transportation costs by 50% [1][5][7]. - Companies are scaling up the use of unmanned vehicles, with Jitu, Zhongtong, and JD Logistics integrating them into their operations for short-distance transportation tasks [8][9]. - JD Logistics has reported a 21% reduction in transportation costs and a 1-hour decrease in average delivery time since implementing unmanned vehicles [8]. Group 2: Increased Demand During Spring Festival - The Spring Festival is expected to see a notable increase in package volume, with some logistics points anticipating a rise of approximately 1,000 packages per day compared to previous years [3][4]. - The characteristics of this year's Spring Festival include a more prolonged peak period and a greater variety of larger packages, which places higher demands on logistics capabilities [3][4]. - E-commerce platforms are ramping up promotions leading into the Spring Festival, further intensifying the pressure on logistics networks to manage increased volumes effectively [3]. Group 3: Cost Management Strategies - Logistics companies are implementing flexible scheduling and human-vehicle collaboration strategies to manage the increased workload during the Spring Festival [4][6]. - Temporary hiring of drivers and workers is common during peak periods to handle the surge in package volume, leading to increased operational costs [6]. - Companies like SF Express and JD Logistics are introducing resource adjustment fees during the Spring Festival to manage the heightened demand and associated costs [6].

Core Viewpoint - SF Holding (002352) shows a steady growth in revenue and profit, despite a decline in quarterly net profit for Q3 2025, indicating potential challenges in maintaining profitability in the short term [2]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, SF Holding reported a total revenue of 225.26 billion yuan, an increase of 8.89% year-on-year [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 8.31 billion yuan, up by 9.07% year-on-year [2]. - The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 6.78 billion yuan, reflecting a modest increase of 0.52% year-on-year [2]. - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a single-quarter revenue of 78.40 billion yuan, marking an 8.21% year-on-year increase [2]. - However, the single-quarter net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.57 billion yuan, down by 8.53% year-on-year [2]. - The net profit excluding non-recurring items for Q3 was 2.23 billion yuan, showing a decline of 14.17% year-on-year [2]. - The company's debt ratio stands at 49.99%, with investment income of 1.18 billion yuan and financial expenses of 1.33 billion yuan [2]. - The gross profit margin is reported at 12.96% [2]. Market Activity - As of January 22, 2026, SF Holding's stock closed at 39.67 yuan, with a slight increase of 0.43% [1]. - The trading volume was 304,200 hands, with a total transaction value of 1.21 billion yuan [1]. - The net inflow of main funds was 31.04 million yuan, accounting for 2.56% of the total transaction value, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 32.54 million yuan, also representing 2.69% [1]. - Conversely, speculative funds experienced a net outflow of 63.58 million yuan, which is 5.25% of the total transaction value [1]. Analyst Ratings - Over the past 90 days, 18 institutions have provided ratings for SF Holding, with 15 recommending a buy and 3 suggesting an increase in holdings [2]. - The average target price set by institutions in the last 90 days is 51.03 yuan [2].

Group 1 - The logistics sector experienced a rise of 0.75% on January 22, with Jushen Co., Ltd. leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4122.58, up 0.14%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14327.05, up 0.5% [1] - Jushen Co., Ltd. saw a closing price of 22.21, with a significant increase of 10.00% and a trading volume of 184,300 shares, amounting to a transaction value of 406 million yuan [1] Group 2 - The logistics sector had a net inflow of 64.2 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 12.4 million yuan [2] - Major stocks in the logistics sector showed varied performance, with Guohui Logistics experiencing a net inflow of 35.43 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors had a net outflow of 26.30 million yuan [3] - The stock of SF Holding had a net inflow of 31.04 million yuan from main funds, despite a net outflow of 63.58 million yuan from speculative funds [3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [3][30] Core Insights - The express delivery industry in China experienced a total delivery volume of 216.5 billion pieces in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 11.5%. The express delivery volume reached 199 billion pieces, growing by 13.7% year-on-year. The total revenue for the postal industry was 1.8 trillion yuan, with express delivery revenue at 1.5 trillion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth of 6.4% and 6.5% respectively [1][6] - In December 2025, the national express service companies completed a business volume of 18.21 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of approximately 2.3%. The express business revenue was about 138.87 billion yuan, showing a slight increase compared to the same period last year. The average revenue per piece was approximately 7.63 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of about 1.6% [1][6][8] Summary by Sections 1. December Industry Overview - The industry volume growth rate fell below 3%, with stable performance in average revenue per piece. The December express delivery volume growth rate decreased further compared to November, attributed to high base effects from last year's price wars and weak demand since Double Eleven [2][6][8] - Major companies saw a decline in year-on-year volume growth rates, with YTO dropping from 13.6% in November to 9.0%, Yunda from -4.2% to -7.4%, and Shentong from 14.7% to 11.1%. SF Express's growth rate fell to 9.3% [2][6][12] 2. Express Business Volume - The express delivery business volume in December 2025 was approximately 18.21 billion pieces, with a year-on-year growth of about 2.3%. The growth rate continued to decline due to the ongoing internal competition and weak demand since Double Eleven [8][10] 3. Average Revenue per Piece - The average revenue per piece in December 2025 saw a year-on-year decline of 1.6%, with a narrowing decrease in the price drop trend. The overall price indicators remained positive, indicating a supportive effect from the internal competition [7][22][28] - The revenue per piece for major companies showed mixed results, with YTO's revenue per piece increasing by 0.4%, while Yunda and Shentong saw decreases of 0.5% and 3.3% respectively. SF Express's revenue per piece increased by 2.5% month-on-month, with a narrowing year-on-year decline [23][25][27] 4. Investment Recommendations - Despite the pressure from lower-than-expected demand since Double Eleven, the stability in average revenue per piece for major companies reflects the supportive role of internal competition on pricing. The ongoing internal competition is expected to exceed expectations, indicating the industry is in the early stages of an upward cycle, with profitability likely to continue recovering [3][30] - The shift from high-growth to a focus on existing market importance suggests a change in competitive logic, emphasizing service quality for sustainable development. Key companies to watch include Zhongtong and YTO, which lead in service quality, and Shentong, which has shown significant operational improvements [3][30]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview Financial Industry - The financial industry is expected to gradually return to a positive cycle by 2026, with economic sustainability improving despite not entering a significant upturn [2] - The central bank has implemented flexible interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, with a total of 7 trillion yuan in special re-loans to support small and micro technology enterprises [2][3] - December social financing data shows stable loan issuance, with a slight rebound in medium- and long-term loan growth, supporting infrastructure and helping to exit deflation [2] Automotive Industry - The automotive market in early 2026 is experiencing a downturn, with retail and wholesale sales significantly declining due to overdrawn demand for new energy vehicles and consumer hesitance regarding promotional subsidies [7][9] - A forecasted decline of 5-7% in passenger vehicle sales for Q1 2026, with an expected overall wholesale decline of 3% for the year [9] - The cost pressure in the automotive sector is increasing due to rising raw material prices, with an estimated increase in single vehicle costs by 6,000 to 8,000 yuan, impacting gross margins by 4-5 percentage points [11] Wind Power Industry - The wind power sector is expected to maintain a positive growth trajectory during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with annual new installations projected between 100-120 GW [15] Property Management Industry - The property management sector is anticipated to maintain low growth, with increasing differentiation among companies [16] - Major players like China Resources Mixc Life, Greentown Service, and Country Garden Service are expected to show strong performance due to stable cash flow and favorable dividend policies [17] Company-Specific Insights SF Express and Jitu - SF Express and Jitu have entered into a cross-shareholding agreement, with SF acquiring 10% of Jitu and Jitu acquiring 4.3% of SF, which is expected to have limited short-term EPS impact but potential long-term benefits due to resource synergy [4] - The collaboration is expected to enhance market presence in both domestic and overseas markets, particularly in cross-border logistics [5] China Resources Mixc Life - Recent stock price fluctuations for China Resources Mixc Life are attributed to slightly lower-than-expected earnings forecasts, but long-term growth potential remains intact with a projected EPS growth rate of 5-6% [18] Greentown Service and Country Garden Service - Greentown Service is expected to maintain a stable cash return due to its high-quality project structure, while Country Garden Service is anticipated to exceed shareholder return expectations with strong cash flow [17] Additional Considerations - The financial sector is benefiting from a shift in household financial asset allocation, with an annual growth rate of approximately 12% expected [3] - The automotive industry faces challenges from rising costs and cautious promotional strategies, with a need for adaptation to new policies impacting sales [8][12] - The property management sector is seeing a healthier profit structure as major companies release impairment pressures and rationalize non-core business operations [16]

证券研究报告 交通运输 多重因素扰动 12 月件量增速 华泰研究 2026 年 1 月 21 日│中国内地 动态点评 12 月件量增速放缓，价格降幅收窄 12 月，"以旧换新"补贴效用退坡使得商品零售额（10-11 月/12 月：同比 +1.9%/+0.7%）、实物商品网上零售额（10-11 月/12 月：同比+3.0%/+0.5%） 增速均放缓。快递件量层面，电商经营成本增加、国补高基数与暖冬使得件 量同比增速放缓（10-11 月/12 月：+6.4%/+2.6%）；价格同比降幅缩窄（10-11 月/12 月：-5.8%/-1.0%）、反季节性环比上涨 0.12 元，主因反内卷提振效 应仍在、去年同期激烈价格竞争导致低基数。往后展望，持续推荐海外业务 增速快、空间广的极兔速递；左侧布局件量结构调优的综合物流龙头顺丰控 股；中长期看好现金流充沛、成本与份额有优势的中通快递。 "以旧换新"品类高基数，12 月社零增速放缓 12 月，社零总额同比+0.9%（11 月：+1.3%），商品零售额同比+0.7%（11 月：+1.0%），增速放缓主因"以旧换新"补贴效应与去年同期高基数。12 月，实物商品网上零售额同比+ ...