Core Viewpoint - Shentong Express (002468) announced that its wholly-owned subsidiary plans to acquire 100% equity of Zhejiang Daniao Logistics Technology Co., Ltd. for a cash consideration of 362 million yuan [1] Group 1: Transaction Details - The acquisition involves the purchase of shares held by Zhejiang Cainiao Supply Chain Management Co., Ltd., Hangzhou Alibaba Venture Capital Co., Ltd., and Alibaba (China) Network Technology Co., Ltd. [1] - The transaction has been approved by the company's sixth board of directors' twelfth meeting and does not require shareholder approval [1] - The transaction is classified as a related party transaction but does not constitute a major asset reorganization as defined by the regulations [1]

Core Insights - The report from Guotai Junan indicates that the express delivery industry is expected to maintain a rapid growth rate in 2025, despite a temporary slowdown in growth due to an earlier promotional cycle in June [1] - The industry is experiencing intensified price competition in the first half of 2025, but the State Post Bureau's call to "reduce internal competition" is likely to control the intensity of this competition, promoting long-term high-quality development [1] - The report highlights the importance of focusing on leading companies with more certain growth in performance, particularly in the e-commerce express delivery sector [1] Industry Performance - In June 2025, the total express delivery volume in China reached 16.87 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 15.8%, with a slight month-on-month decline due to the early 618 promotional cycle [1] - For Q2 2025, the total express delivery volume was 50.51 billion pieces, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 17.3% [1] - The trend towards smaller packages and the convenience of e-commerce promotions and returns are driving the growth in express delivery volume, surpassing the State Post Bureau's forecast of over 8% growth for the entire year [1] Company Market Share - The market share of major express delivery companies has increased in Q2 2025, with SF Express, YTO Express, Yunda Express, and Shentong Express achieving market shares of 8.7%, 15.6%, 12.9%, and 12.9% respectively in June 2025 [2] - The CR8 (concentration ratio of the top 8 companies) for the express delivery industry reached 87.0 in the first half of 2025, an increase of 1.7 compared to the previous year, indicating a notable rise in the focus on leading companies [2] Pricing Trends - In June 2025, the express delivery industry revenue grew by 9.0% year-on-year, while the average revenue per package decreased by 5.8% [3] - For Q2 2025, the industry revenue increased by 9.3%, with a 6.8% decline in average revenue per package [3] - The decline in average revenue per package has narrowed both year-on-year and month-on-month, suggesting a moderation in price competition [3] - The State Post Bureau's emphasis on opposing "internal competition" is expected to alleviate pressure on companies and franchisees, promoting a healthier competitive environment in the long term [3]

Market Overview - The market experienced a slight decline in early trading, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling below 3600 points, closing at 3593.38, down 0.34% with a trading volume of 500 billion [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 11160.30, down 0.29% with a trading volume of 605.6 billion, while the ChiNext Index closed at 2337.80, down 0.32% with a trading volume of 271 billion [1] Sector Performance - Sectors such as medical devices, multi-modal AI, Huawei Ascend, and cultural media saw significant gains, while sectors like Hainan Free Trade Zone, super hydropower, controllable nuclear fusion, and cement experienced notable declines [1] - AI application stocks surged collectively, with Sai Group rising by 20%, and medical device stocks also showed strength, with Kangtai Medical rising by 20% [2] - Logistics stocks saw a temporary spike, with Shentong Express hitting the daily limit, while super hydropower stocks collectively fell, with Shen Shui Gui Yuan dropping over 10% [2] Institutional Insights - Hengsheng Qianhai Fund noted that the recent high financing balance indicates strong market trading enthusiasm, with expectations for continued upward trends in indices due to improving economic fundamentals supported by policy measures [4] - Huahui Chuangfu highlighted a structural opportunity in the market, driven by economic stabilization and supportive policies, predicting alternating boosts from "policy benefits" and "profit benefits" in sectors like AI, new energy vehicles, and innovative pharmaceuticals [4] - Zhongtai Securities observed a clear shift in fund allocation towards leading industries such as communication, non-bank finance, media, agriculture, and beauty care, while significantly reducing holdings in steel, coal, real estate, and food and beverage sectors [5] Financing Activity - The total financing balance in the two markets increased by 60.25 billion, with the Shanghai Stock Exchange reporting a balance of 9730.55 billion and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange reporting 9490.57 billion [6] Policy Developments - The National Medical Insurance Administration held a series of discussions to support the high-quality development of innovative drugs and medical devices, involving representatives from medical institutions, pharmaceutical companies, and investment firms [7]

Group 1: Stock Performance - Yiming Pharmaceutical achieved a 10.00% increase over two consecutive days, driven by developments in Tibet and medical technology [3] - Kantai Medical saw a first board listing with a 20.03% rise, attributed to medical device advancements [4] - Zhengchuan Co. also debuted on the first board with a 9.99% increase, linked to medicinal glass [3] - Yuheng Pharmaceutical and Tianmu Pharmaceutical both recorded first board listings with increases of 10.09% and 10.00% respectively, related to the pharmaceutical sector [3] Group 2: AI and Robotics - Zhi Zhen Technology and Zhongdian Xinlong both debuted on the first board with a 10.01% increase, associated with computing power and machine learning [6] - Hubei Broadcasting and Duolun Technology also saw first board listings with increases of 10.04% and 9.95%, driven by computing power and AI applications [7] - The M-Robots open-source project was announced, aiming to create a unified robot operating system [11] Group 3: Infrastructure and Energy - The announcement of a 1.2 trillion yuan investment in a super hydropower project has led to significant interest in related stocks [13][16] - Nanfang Road Machinery and Tuoshan Heavy Industry both achieved consecutive board listings with increases of 9.99% and 10.01%, linked to engineering machinery [15] Group 4: Tourism and Hospitality - The demand for various types of tourism, including educational and family trips, has surged, with national railways reporting 341 million passenger trips [18][19] - Sizhizang Tourism and Tianfu Cultural Tourism both recorded first board listings with increases of 9.99% and 10.04%, reflecting the growing tourism sector [20] Group 5: Market Trends - The stock market has shown a strong focus on sectors such as robotics, AI, and infrastructure, with multiple companies achieving significant stock price increases [22][23]

Key Takeaways from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China Express** industry, specifically analyzing the performance of major express delivery companies in the Asia Pacific region for **June 2025** [1] Core Insights - **Volume Growth**: - SF Express led the market with a **32% YoY volume growth**, followed by YTO at **19% YoY**. - Both STO and Yunda experienced lower growth rates at **11%** and **7% YoY**, respectively, resulting in a loss of market share of **0.5ppt** and **1.0ppt** [2] - **Revenue Performance**: - SF Express achieved a **14% YoY revenue growth**, outperforming YTO and STO, which recorded **11%** and **10% YoY growth**, respectively. - Yunda's revenue growth slowed significantly to **3% YoY**, down from **9% YoY** for the industry, marking a decline from **7% YoY** in May [3] - **Average Selling Price (ASP)**: - SF's ASP decreased by **13% YoY**, while YTO, Yunda, and STO saw decreases of **7%**, **4%**, and **1%**, respectively. - On a month-over-month basis, SF and STO's ASPs improved by **4%** and **2%**, while YTO and Yunda's ASPs fell to new lows in 2025 [4] Financial Metrics - **June 2025 Financials**: - SF Express: Revenue of **Rmb 19,962 million**, YoY growth of **14.2%**, volume of **1,460 million**, YoY growth of **31.8%**, ASP of **Rmb 13.67** [5] - Yunda: Revenue of **Rmb 4,149 million**, YoY growth of **2.8%**, volume of **2,173 million**, YoY growth of **7.4%**, ASP of **Rmb 1.91** [5] - STO: Revenue of **Rmb 4,341 million**, YoY growth of **10.1%**, volume of **2,184 million**, YoY growth of **11.1%**, ASP of **Rmb 1.99** [5] - YTO: Revenue of **Rmb 5,527 million**, YoY growth of **11.4%**, volume of **2,627 million**, YoY growth of **19.3%**, ASP of **Rmb 2.10** [5] Market Share Dynamics - SF Express's market share increased by **1.1ppt** to **8.7%**, while Yunda's market share decreased by **1.0ppt** to **12.9%**. - STO's market share remained stable at **12.9%**, and YTO's increased by **0.5ppt** to **15.6%** [5] Strategic Insights - SF Express's strong performance is attributed to robust intra-city delivery demand and the implementation of the "Activating Operations" strategy. - The company achieved **10% YoY revenue growth in 1H25**, aligning with its guidance [12] Additional Observations - The report indicates that ZTO and YTO gained a total of **0.7ppt** in market share in **2Q25**, compared to a **0.4ppt** drop in **1Q25**, suggesting a trend of accelerated segment consolidation [12] Conclusion - The express delivery industry in China is experiencing significant shifts, with SF Express maintaining a strong lead in both volume and revenue growth, while Yunda faces challenges in sustaining its market position. The overall market dynamics indicate a consolidation trend among the major players, which could present both opportunities and risks for investors in the sector.

Investment Rating - Investment recommendation: Outperform the market (maintained) [7] Core Viewpoints - In June, the national express delivery business volume reached 16.87 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 15.8%; express delivery revenue totaled 126.32 billion yuan, up 9.0% year-on-year; the average price per ticket in the industry was 7.49 yuan, down 5.85% year-on-year. Under the "anti-involution" policy's soft constraints, the overall competition intensity in the industry is expected to be controllable, and the price decline in the off-season may stabilize. The current valuation of the sector has returned to a relatively low historical level, providing a sufficient margin of safety, suggesting attention to investment opportunities in the sector under the "anti-involution" policy [4][12]. Summary by Sections Business Volume - In June, the national express delivery business volume reached 16.87 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 15.8%. The growth rate has slowed down due to the earlier start of the 618 promotion, which brought some volume forward to May [9][17]. - In June, SF Express, YTO Express, Yunda Express, and Shentong Express completed business volumes of 1.46 billion, 2.63 billion, 2.17 billion, and 2.18 billion pieces, with year-on-year growth rates of 31.77%, 19.34%, 7.41%, and 11.14% respectively, with SF Express continuing to lead in growth [20]. Ticket Price - The average ticket price in June was 7.49 yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 5.85%, but an increase of 0.24 yuan compared to May. The average ticket price for the first half of the year was 7.52 yuan, down 7.74% year-on-year [10][28]. - The ticket prices for major express companies in June were 13.67 yuan for SF Express, 2.10 yuan for YTO Express, 1.91 yuan for Yunda Express, and 1.99 yuan for Shentong Express, with year-on-year changes of -13.32%, -6.69%, -4.50%, and -1.00% respectively [36]. Industry Structure - The brand concentration index (CR8) in June was 87.0, unchanged from May and up 1.7 from the same period in 2024. The market shares for SF Express, YTO Express, Yunda Express, and Shentong Express were 8.65%, 15.57%, 12.88%, and 12.95% respectively, with year-on-year increases of 1.05%, 0.46%, -1.00%, and -0.54% [11][46]. Investment Suggestions - The industry demand remains high, and the intensity of price competition is controllable. The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in the sector under the "anti-involution" policy, as the current valuation has returned to a relatively low historical level, providing a sufficient margin of safety. Specific companies to watch include SF Express, Zhongtong Express, and YTO Express, which are expected to benefit from their operational strategies and market positions [12][49].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" with an expectation that the industry index will outperform the market index by more than 10% in the next six months [7]. Core Insights - The express delivery industry experienced high growth in package volume in the first half of 2025, with a total of 956.4 billion packages delivered, representing a year-on-year increase of 19.3%. However, the revenue growth lagged behind, with total industry revenue reaching 718.78 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.1% [2][3]. - The average revenue per package continued to decline, with a June average of 7.49 yuan, down 5.85% year-on-year, although the rate of decline has slowed due to seasonal demand [2][4]. - The competitive landscape among leading companies remains intense, with significant changes in market share observed in June 2025. The concentration index (CR8) for express delivery services remained stable at 87.0, indicating a slight easing of competitive pressure [4][5]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - In the first half of 2025, the express delivery business volume accounted for 74.0% in the eastern region, 15.5% in the central region, and 10.5% in the western region. The eastern region saw a slight decline in both revenue and volume share compared to the previous year, while the central and western regions experienced increases [3]. Competitive Dynamics - Major express delivery companies such as SF Express, Yunda, Shentong, and YTO reported varying growth rates in package volume, with SF Express leading at 14.60 billion packages, a year-on-year increase of 31.77%. However, average revenue per package for these companies showed a decline, reflecting ongoing competitive pressures [4]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests a positive outlook for the express delivery industry amid regulatory changes aimed at reducing "involution" competition. It is anticipated that the continued tightening of regulations will lead to a reduction in price declines and a release of profit elasticity for express delivery companies. Recommended stocks include SF Holding, YTO Express, Shentong Express, and Yunda [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the increase in the minimum express delivery price in Yiwu is expected to alleviate price pressure in the third quarter, but it does not address the fundamental issues of overcapacity and service homogenization in the industry [1][3] - The average delivery price in Yiwu has been raised by 0.1 RMB to 1.2 RMB, effective from July 18 [1] - Bank of America believes that if there is no industry consolidation, any increase in average prices will not be sustainable [1][3] Group 2 - Bank of America has raised the expected earnings per share for YTO Express, Shentong, and Jitu by 6-7% for the years 2025-2027 [2] - Target prices for these companies have been increased by 18-32% based on the mixed expectations for 2025/2026 [2] - The company maintains a neutral rating on Zhongtong due to slow market share growth but reasonable valuation [2] Group 3 - The structural negative impact on average price and market share control is highlighted, indicating that the price war is unlikely to stop as long as overcapacity exists [3] - Merchants can circumvent the price control by sending packages to nearby areas without such controls [3] - Bank of America suggests that the focus should be on improving the welfare of couriers rather than merely adjusting price controls [3]

当收寄快递成为越来越多人生活习惯时，快递费用却悄悄的"背刺"起了消费者。 近期，有媒体报道，一个2.7公斤的包裹，在多家快递公司手中，重量会"神奇"地变成3公斤甚至4公 斤。这多出来的"空气重量"，最终却需要消费者掏腰包买单。 随着电子商务的发展，近十年来我国快递业务量增加了8倍，买买买、拆寄快递成了大多数人的生活常 态。但在行业繁荣的背后，这种"向上取整"的计价方式，却在悄悄"吸血"，也正在成为撕开行业规范的 缺口。 "就多收几块钱，没必要计较"，或许很多人对快递称重的"四舍五入"习以为常。可当全国人均年快递支 出逼近千元，1kg与1.1kg的计费差被乘以1751亿件的业务量，这就不再是个小数目了。 "向上取整"合规吗？快递收费明细是如何规定的？行业规定只是一纸空谈吗？面对向上收费，消费者又 该如何保障自己的权益呢？ 十年业务量增加8倍 快递费成日常支出 早上刚拆完网购的早餐机，中午就把穿小的童装寄给老家侄女，下午又收到公司寄来的文件——这大概 是现在很多人的日常。 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 随着电子商务的发展，我国的快递业务量一路高歌猛进，从2015年到20 ...

Group 1 - The express delivery industry is experiencing sustained high demand, with an expected business volume growth rate of around 15% for the foreseeable future [1] - The current competitive landscape is expected to last for a long time, with anti-involution policies favoring mid-to-late stage companies, leading to a potential easing of competition in the second half of the year [1] - There is a recommendation to focus on the efficiency improvements in e-commerce express delivery, as factors like autonomous vehicles may enhance the competitive advantage of mid-to-late stage companies [1] Group 2 - The express delivery industry's price competition has gone through four phases: 1) moderate price competition (2016-2019), 2) intense price wars (2019-2021), 3) stabilization phase (2021-2022), and 4) a return to competition since 2023 [2] - Historical anti-involution policies have included multiple measures from April to September 2021 aimed at curbing vicious price wars, leading to a price rebound starting in September 2021 [2] - The current industry fundamentals align with anti-involution demands, with clear low-price support, but the likelihood of a comprehensive price increase similar to 2021 is low due to ongoing competition [3] Group 3 - If a price increase occurs, e-commerce express delivery companies could see significant profit elasticity, with past data showing substantial profit rebounds following price hikes [4] - Profit margins for major companies post-price increase in 2022 showed significant year-on-year improvements, with ZTO Express up by 26% and YTO Express up by 105% [4] - Under hypothetical price increases of 3-10%, the profit elasticity for various companies ranges significantly, indicating that mid-to-late stage companies may experience more pronounced profit elasticity due to lower profit baselines [4]