上 市 公 司 证 券 研 究 报 告 汽车 2024 年 04 月 29 日 双环传动 (002472) ——24Q1 业绩符合预期，持续成长降本增效 公 司 研 究 / 公 司 点 评 | --- | --- | |-----------------------------|-------------------------------| | 市场数据： | 2024 年 04 月 29 日 | | 收盘价（元） | 24.05 | | 一年内最高 / 最低（元） | 37.53/18.09 | | 市净率 | 2.5 - | | 息率（分红/ 股价） | | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 18222 3113.04/9673.76 | | 上证指数 / 深证成指 | | | --- | --- | |----------------------------------|-------------------------------| | | | | 基础数据 : | 2023 年 12 月 31 日 | | | 9.33 | | 每股净资产（元） | | | 资产负债率 % | 36.70 | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a target price based on the closing price of 24.05 CNY per share on April 29, 2024 [2][3]. Core Views - The company reported Q1 2024 revenue of 2.075 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 15.8%, driven by growth in new energy and consumer gear businesses. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 221 million CNY, up 29.4% year-on-year, indicating significant profit improvement [2]. - The company is expanding its global footprint, with plans to accelerate overseas factory construction in Hungary while maintaining strong domestic production capacity of 5 million sets of new energy gear [2]. - The subsidiary, Huandong Technology, is set to spin off and list on the STAR Market, which is expected to enhance its financing capabilities and support the domestic replacement of robotic joint businesses [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2024 revenue was 2.075 billion CNY, with a gross margin of 22.7%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.9 percentage points. The profit margin was supported by improved product structure and cost efficiency [2]. - The company forecasts revenues of 10.32 billion CNY, 12.45 billion CNY, and 14.94 billion CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with net profits projected at 1.052 billion CNY, 1.337 billion CNY, and 1.663 billion CNY for the same years [3][5]. Growth Drivers - The company is benefiting from a strong market share in the new energy vehicle sector, with a domestic market share of 40%-50% in 2023. The wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 1.98 million units in Q1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 31.2% [2]. - The expansion into international markets is highlighted by securing projects with major global automotive brands, which is expected to drive future growth [2]. Strategic Initiatives - The planned spin-off of Huandong Technology aims to diversify financing channels and enhance the company's overall profitability as it focuses on advanced robotics and precision gear development [2]. - The company is committed to strengthening its international team and capabilities to support its global expansion strategy [2].

Financial Performance - The company's revenue for Q1 2024 reached ¥2,074,504,556.05, representing a 15.79% increase compared to ¥1,791,568,531.60 in the same period last year[3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was ¥221,329,482.00, up 29.37% from ¥171,077,673.04 year-on-year[3] - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was ¥209,669,692.99, reflecting a 34.89% increase from ¥155,442,915.84 in the previous year[3] - Total operating revenue for Q1 2024 reached CNY 2,074,504,556.05, an increase of 15.8% compared to CNY 1,791,568,531.60 in Q1 2023[15] - Net profit for Q1 2024 was CNY 230,365,029.67, up 31.1% from CNY 175,715,502.12 in the same period last year[16] - Basic earnings per share for Q1 2024 were CNY 0.26, compared to CNY 0.20 in Q1 2023, representing a 30% increase[16] Cash Flow - The company's cash flow from operating activities decreased by 49.61% to ¥171,368,411.23, down from ¥340,080,974.72 in the same period last year[3] - The net cash flow from operating activities for the first quarter was ¥171,368,411.23, a decrease of 49.6% compared to ¥340,080,974.72 in the previous period[18] - Total cash inflow from operating activities amounted to ¥2,024,910,244.66, up from ¥1,950,089,526.29, reflecting an increase of 3.8%[18] - Cash outflow from operating activities increased to ¥1,853,541,833.43, compared to ¥1,610,008,551.57, representing a rise of 15.1%[18] - The company reported a net increase in cash and cash equivalents of ¥518,726,058.09, contrasting with a net decrease of ¥305,673,252.53 in the prior period[18] - The cash balance at the end of the period was ¥821,671,666.46, down from ¥1,444,334,188.51 at the end of the previous period[18] Assets and Liabilities - Total assets at the end of Q1 2024 were ¥14,136,818,843.92, a 7.33% increase from ¥13,171,168,907.25 at the end of the previous year[3] - As of March 31, 2024, the total current assets amounted to RMB 6,021,569,747.68, an increase of 13.12% from RMB 5,323,645,095.53 at the beginning of the period[12] - Total liabilities increased to CNY 5,673,696,139.07, up 17.4% from CNY 4,833,355,421.63 in Q1 2023[14] - The company's total equity reached CNY 8,463,122,704.85, an increase of 1.5% from CNY 8,337,813,485.62 in the previous year[14] Research and Development - Research and development expenses increased by 35.26% to ¥100,307,374.56, compared to ¥74,158,011.67 in Q1 2023, indicating a focus on innovation[6] - Research and development expenses increased to CNY 100,307,374.56, a rise of 35.3% from CNY 74,158,011.67 in Q1 2023[15] Shareholder Activities - The company repurchased a total of 7,339,400 shares, representing 0.86% of the total share capital, as part of its share buyback program[10] - The company plans to use between RMB 100 million and RMB 200 million for the share repurchase, with a maximum price of RMB 28.00 per share[9] Tax and Expenses - The company experienced a 131.33% increase in income tax expenses, amounting to ¥40,517,887.15, compared to ¥17,515,358.58 in Q1 2023, due to higher profit levels[6] - The company paid ¥367,751,173.17 in employee compensation, an increase from ¥300,050,852.23, reflecting a rise of 22.5%[18] - Tax payments increased to ¥84,079,835.34 from ¥43,669,564.99, indicating a rise of 92.5%[18] Other Information - The company is in the process of spinning off its subsidiary, Zhejiang Huandong Robot Joint Technology Co., Ltd., for an IPO on the Shanghai Stock Exchange's Sci-Tech Innovation Board[10] - The company did not undergo an audit for the first quarter report[19]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the market index [5][7]. Core Views - The company achieved a 40.3% year-on-year increase in net profit for 2023, driven by the recovery in the commercial vehicle and engineering machinery gear business, along with a reduction in raw material costs [4][5]. - The company is expanding into the robotics sector through its subsidiary, Huan Dong Technology, which is expected to enhance growth opportunities [4][5]. - The revenue for 2023 increased by 18.1%, supported by a rise in both sales volume and prices for passenger and commercial vehicle gears [5][7]. Financial Performance Summary - The company's revenue for 2023 was 8,074 million, with a growth rate of 18.1% compared to 2022 [7]. - The net profit for 2023 reached 816 million, reflecting a 40.3% increase from the previous year [7]. - The gross margin improved by 1.2 percentage points year-on-year, with a notable increase in efficiency, as indicated by a 20% rise in per capita productivity [4][5]. Future Projections - The forecasted net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 1,025 million, 1,284 million, and 1,552 million respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 17.5, 14.0, and 11.6 [5][7]. - The company is expected to benefit from the growth in its new business segments, particularly in the consumer gear market, which saw an 87.5% increase in revenue [5][7]. Market Data - As of April 16, 2024, the company's stock price is 21.03, with a 52-week price range of 18.09 to 37.53 [5]. - The total market capitalization is approximately 17,947.80 million [5]. Efficiency and Cost Management - The company successfully reduced its expense ratio by 0.6 percentage points in 2023, with specific reductions in sales, management, and financial expenses [4]. - The improvement in operational efficiency is highlighted by a 20% increase in productivity per employee [4]. Robotics Sector Development - The establishment of Huan Dong Technology and its planned spin-off is aimed at enhancing financing channels and focusing on the robotics business, which is anticipated to provide significant growth potential [4][5].

Investment Rating - Buy rating maintained for Shuanghuan Transmission (002472 SZ) [1][4][15] Core Views - Shuanghuan Transmission achieved a 40 3% YoY increase in net profit in 2023, driven by product diversification and global expansion [1] - The company's revenue reached 8 07 billion yuan in 2023, up 18 1% YoY, with net profit attributable to shareholders of 820 million yuan, up 40 3% YoY [1][5] - New energy vehicle transmission gear products contributed 22 3 billion yuan, accounting for 27 6% of total revenue [1][5] - The company's gross margin in Q4 2023 was 24 6%, up 2 1 pct YoY and 2 9 pct QoQ, while net margin was 10 0%, up 1 6 pct YoY [1][5] - Shuanghuan Transmission has repurchased 7,339,400 shares, representing 0 86% of total shares, demonstrating management confidence [1][5] Financial Performance - In Q4 2023, revenue was 2 2 billion yuan, up 9 4% YoY and 0 8% QoQ, with net profit attributable to shareholders of 230 million yuan, up 31 5% YoY [1][5] - The company's sales/management/R&D/financial expense ratios in Q4 2023 were 1 2%/4 9%/5 5%/0 5%, respectively [1][5] - Shuanghuan Transmission's heavy-duty truck automatic transmission gear business and new energy vehicle gear business showed strong growth [1][5] - The company's new energy vehicle drive gear production capacity reached 5 million units, with new energy sales accounting for 27 6% of total revenue [5] Strategic Outlook - Shuanghuan Transmission is advancing its globalization strategy, with a 120 million euro investment in a Hungarian production base [1][14] - The company is expanding its product matrix, including gear-related products for smart home and automotive applications [8] - Shuanghuan Transmission is transitioning from OEM to ODM services, offering customized design and manufacturing solutions [8] - The company aims to build a flexible and efficient intelligent production line to shorten product development and manufacturing cycles [8] Industry Position - Shuanghuan Transmission holds over 70% market share in China's high-power pure electric vehicle market [12] - The company has established a comprehensive high-precision gear supply matrix, including vehicle gears, robot reducers, and other industrial gears [12] - Shuanghuan Transmission's core competencies include product consistency, batch supply capability, and rapid response speed [12] Global Expansion - Shuanghuan Transmission's overseas revenue in 2023 was 1 1 billion yuan, up 17% YoY, with a gross margin of 25 0%, up 5 1 pct YoY [14] - The company is actively developing overseas supply chains and sales channels, with a focus on the European market [10] - Shuanghuan Transmission has established partnerships with global leading electric vehicle manufacturers and suppliers [10][11] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to reach 9 55 billion yuan in 2024, 11 30 billion yuan in 2025, and 13 31 billion yuan in 2026 [2] - Net profit is expected to be 1 045 billion yuan in 2024, 1 353 billion yuan in 2025, and 1 621 billion yuan in 2026 [2][15] - EPS is forecasted to be 1 22 yuan in 2024, 1 59 yuan in 2025, and 1 90 yuan in 2026 [2][15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 28.13 yuan, representing a potential upside from the current price of 21.60 yuan [4] Core Views - The company achieved robust growth in 2023, with revenue increasing by 18.08% YoY to 8.074 billion yuan and net profit attributable to shareholders surging 40.26% YoY to 816 million yuan [2] - Gross margin and net margin improved to 22.24% and 10.33% respectively, up 1.16 and 1.76 percentage points from the previous year [2] - The company is expected to maintain strong growth momentum, with projected net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.044 billion yuan, 1.366 billion yuan, and 1.664 billion yuan for 2024-2026, representing YoY growth of 27.84%, 30.91%, and 21.77% respectively [2] Business Performance Traditional Automotive Business - The traditional automotive gear business achieved revenue of 4.223 billion yuan in 2023, up 15.66% YoY, outperforming the industry's -0.65% growth [2] - The company demonstrated solid business fundamentals with traditional vehicle gear revenue reaching 2 billion yuan, a 15.15% increase [2] New Energy Vehicle Business - New energy vehicle gear revenue grew 16.46% YoY to 2.229 billion yuan, slightly below the pure EV market growth of 24.61% due to inventory reduction in the first half of 2023 [2] - The low base effect from 2023 is expected to benefit future growth [2] Emerging Businesses - Commercial vehicle, robotics, and civil gear businesses showed strong growth, with revenues of 880 million yuan, 556 million yuan, and 379 million yuan respectively, representing YoY increases of 71.25%, 45.62%, and 87.47% [2] - The shift from manual to automatic transmissions in commercial vehicles is driving growth, with major clients like ZF continuing to lead the trend [2] - Robotics and civil gear businesses are accelerating through domestic substitution and new customer development, with optimistic prospects due to expanding application scenarios [2] Competitive Advantages - The company maintains high barriers in process technology, primarily serving the mid-to-high-end market [2] - It has successfully diversified its international brand portfolio through partnerships with global Tier 1 suppliers like ZF and Schaeffler [2] - Management efficiency improvements have contributed to rising gross and net margins, with operating cash flow reaching 1.572 billion yuan, nearly double the net profit level [2] Financial Projections - Revenue is expected to grow from 9.522 billion yuan in 2024E to 13.444 billion yuan in 2026E, with YoY growth rates of 17.93%, 20.70%, and 16.97% respectively [3] - EPS is projected to increase from 1.22 yuan in 2024E to 1.95 yuan in 2026E [3] - ROE is forecasted to improve from 11.24% in 2024E to 13.84% in 2026E [3] Valuation - The company's P/E ratio is expected to decline from 17.65x in 2024E to 11.07x in 2026E, indicating potential undervaluation [3] - The target price of 28.13 yuan represents a 30.23% upside from the current price of 21.60 yuan [4]

股 票 研 究 [Table_industryInfo] 资本货物/工业 [ Table_Main[双ITnaf 环bol]e 传_Ti动tle]( 002472) [评Tab级le_：Inv est] 增持 上次评级： 增持 年报符合预期，全球化、同心多元化加速 目标价格： 33.21 上次预测： 40.15 公 ——双环传动2023 年报点评 当前价格： 21.60 司 吴晓飞(分析师) 管正月(分析师) 2024.04.14 更 0755-23976003 021-38032026 [交Ta易bl数e_M据a rket] 新 wuxiaofei@gtjas.com guanzhengyue@gtjas.com 证书编号 S0880517080003 S0880521030003 52周内股价区间（元） 18.91-36.30 报 总市值（百万元） 18,434 告 本报告导读： 总股本/流通A股（百万股） 853/758 流通 B股/H股（百万股） 0/0 公司 2023 年报符合预期，围绕同心多元化战略，不断拓展能力边界，民生齿轮、机 流通股比例 89% 器人业务快速放量，海外布局不断加码，全球化扩张 ...

上 市 公 司 汽车 2024 年04月 13 日 双环传动 (002472) 公 司 研 究 ——全年业绩表现亮眼，看好精密齿轮平台公司多维成长 公 司 点 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 评 买入 投资要点：公司发布2023年报，2023全年实现营业收入 80.74亿元，同比+18.1%；实现归 （维持） 母净利润 8.16 亿元，同比+40.3%。分季度看，公司 23Q4 实现营收 22.02 亿元，同环比 +9.4%/+0.7%；实现归母净利润2.27亿元，同环比+31.5%/+2.8%。业绩符合预期。 证 市场数据： 2024年04月12日  公司收入稳定增长，乘用车、商用车、民生齿轮等贡献增量。23全年公司营收80.74亿元， 券 收盘价（元） 21.6 同比+18.1%，具体分业务看：乘用车收入 42.23 亿元，同比+15.7%，其中新能源收入 研 一年内最高/最低（元） 37.53/18.09 22.29亿元，同比+16.5%，我们判断主要受到上半年下游消化库存，因此影响提货，下半 究 市净率 2.3 报 息率（分红/股价） - 年影响基本消除，增速恢复；燃油车收入 19.94 亿元，同比+ ...

公司报告 | 年报点评报告 双环传动（002472） 证券研究报告 2024年04月 14日 投资评级 向外构建多元化产品体系，向内持续降本增效 行业 汽车/汽车零部件 6个月评级 买入（维持评级） 当前价格 21.6元 事件：公司23年实现收入80.7亿元，同比+18.1%；归母净利润8.2亿元，同比+40.3%； 扣非归母净利润 8.0亿元，同比+41.6%；对应 23Q4营收 22.0亿元，同比+9.4%； 目标价格 元 归母净利润2.3亿元，同比+31.5%；扣非归母净利润2.5亿元，同比+34.5%。 基本数据 另外，公司24Q1业绩预告归母净利润2.1-2.3亿元，同比+22.8%-34.4%；扣非归母 A股总股本(百万股) 853.44 净利润2.0-2.2亿元，同比+28.7%-41.5%，盈利能力持续提升。 流通A股股本(百万股) 757.67 A股总市值(百万元) 18,434.26 乘用车齿轮/商用车齿轮/民生齿轮业务高增，带动整体业绩正向攀升。 23年公司 流通A股市值(百万元) 16,365.74 乘用车齿轮/商用车齿轮/工程机械齿轮/减速器及其他/民生齿轮业务收入分别为 每股净资产 ...

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·汽车零部件 双环传动（002472） 2023 年年度报告点评：2023Q4 业绩符合预 2024 年 04月 14日 期，公司长期成长空间广阔 证券分析师 黄细里 买入（维持） 执业证书：S0600520010001 021-60199793 盈[T 利ab 预le_ 测EP 与S 估] 值 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E huangxl@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 刘力宇 营业总收入（百万元） 6,838 8,074 9,799 11,783 14,021 执业证书：S0600522050001 同比 26.84% 18.08% 21.36% 20.25% 18.99% liuly@dwzq.com.cn 归母净利润（百万元） 582.09 816.41 1,003.13 1,253.10 1,528.23 同比 78.37% 40.26% 22.87% 24.92% 21.96% 股价走势 EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） 0.68 0.96 1.18 1.47 1.79 双环传动 沪深300 P/E（现价&最新摊薄） 31.67 22.58 1 ...