Investment Direction 1: Dividend Strategy - Recommended companies include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and China National Petroleum Corporation (PetroChina) with an expected Brent oil price range of $60-70 per barrel in 2026 [2][3] - CNOOC is committed to maintaining a dividend payout ratio of no less than 45% from 2025 to 2027, while PetroChina benefits from domestic natural gas market reforms [2][3] Investment Direction 2: Capital Allocation to Undervalued Chemical Leaders - Recommended companies include Wanhua Chemical, Baofeng Energy, Satellite Chemical, and Hualu Hengsheng, which are expected to benefit from industry barriers related to cost, technology, and market [2][3] - The report suggests prioritizing capital allocation to chemical ETFs and leading companies as their performance is expected to stabilize [2][3] Investment Direction 3: Price Increases Driven by Downstream Demand - Traditional demand sectors such as food additives, pesticides, and fertilizers are highlighted, with companies like New Hope Liuhe and Jiangshan Chemical expected to benefit from stable growth in demand [2][3] - Emerging demand in phosphorous and fluorine chemicals is driven by the needs of new energy battery and AI cooling applications, with companies like Chuanheng Chemical and Juhua Co. being key players [2][3] Investment Direction 4: Domestic Anti-Competition Driving Price Increases - The report emphasizes the focus on large refining and chemical companies such as Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical, which are expected to benefit from anti-competitive measures in the domestic market [2][3] - The organic silicon sector is entering the end of its expansion cycle, with major companies like Sinan Silicon Material adjusting industry operating rates [2][3] - The soda ash industry is facing capacity controls and the need to phase out outdated production, with companies like Boyuan Chemical under observation [2][3] Oil Price Analysis - The report anticipates a Brent oil price range of $60-70 per barrel in 2026, with a slight oversupply expected [11][12] - OPEC+ has postponed production increases for Q1 2026, indicating a cautious approach to market conditions [11][12] - The report highlights geopolitical factors, including the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and U.S.-Venezuela relations, which may impact oil supply dynamics [12][13] Three Major Oil Companies Insights - CNOOC is focused on increasing reserves and production while reducing costs, while PetroChina is benefiting from natural gas market reforms [34][36] - Sinopec is concentrating on domestic refining and chemical anti-competition developments [34][36] - The overall profitability of the three major oil companies is expected to be supported by the anticipated oil price stabilization [34][36]

（编辑 任世碧） 证券日报网12月11日讯 云图控股在12月9日至10日回答调研者提问时表示，公司磷复肥年产能近800万 吨，在建复合肥产能190万吨。遵循"靠近资源，靠近市场"原则，公司已在湖北应城、荆州、宜城，四 川眉山，河南宁陵，山东平原，辽宁铁岭，黑龙江肇东、佳木斯，新疆昌吉等地布局复合肥生产基地， 并推进广西贵港和新疆阿克苏基地的建设，形成了覆盖粮食主产区与核心市场的生产网络。此外，公司 还在马来西亚建有年产15万吨复合肥的生产基地，保障东南亚市场的供应。随着在建产能逐步投产释 放，公司依托完整的氮磷产业链及辐射国内外的生产网络，有效保障主要原料稳定供应，持续提升成本 竞争力，并快速响应不同区域的市场需求，为磷复肥主业发展提供稳固支撑。 ...

（文章来源：证券日报） 证券日报网12月11日讯云图控股在12月9日至10日回答调研者提问时表示，公司已形成完整的磷酸铁产 业链布局，目前拥有磷酸铁年产能5万吨，并配套拥有上游15万吨精制磷酸和30万吨折纯湿法磷酸原料 产能，能够稳定供应锂电池正极材料所需前驱体。公司采用铁法制备磷酸铁工艺，具备生产成本优势， 同时能确保产品的稳定性和高品质，目前已与蜂巢能源、当升蜀道、中创新航等建立合作关系。未来， 公司将加强与优质客户的战略合作，推动公司新能源材料业务的持续发展。 ...

证券日报网12月11日讯云图控股在12月9日至10日回答调研者提问时表示，公司将在保障自身产业链需 求的基础上，统筹安排磷矿石的使用。一方面，公司将使用自采的磷矿石生产黄磷、磷复肥、磷系阻燃 剂及磷酸铁等产品，保障生产所需磷矿石的稳定供应，并降低生产成本。另一方面，公司将结合市场情 况和自身需求，动态调整自用和外售的比例，力求效益最大化，增强公司盈利能力。 （文章来源：证券日报） ...

Core Viewpoint - Yuntu Holdings has significant phosphate resources in Leibo County, Sichuan Province, with a total resource volume of approximately 549 million tons, and is progressing steadily with its projects [2] Group 1: Project Updates - The Aju Luo Xia phosphate mine has a production capacity of 2.9 million tons per year, with underground engineering, surface facilities construction, and slope management progressing smoothly [2] - The Niu Niu Zhai East section phosphate mine, with a capacity of 4 million tons per year, is currently advancing with tunnel construction [2] - The Niu Niu Zhai West section phosphate mine is in the "exploration to production" phase, with plans to steadily advance all phosphate projects [2] Group 2: Strategic Goals - The company aims to provide raw material support for phosphate fertilizer and phosphate chemical businesses, enhancing industry chain synergy and improving market competitiveness [2]

Core Viewpoint - Yuntu Holdings (002539) is accelerating the development of its green circular phosphate chemical industry project in Hubei Yicheng, which includes significant investments in various phosphate-related products and facilities [1] Group 1: Project Details - The project involves the construction of 150,000 tons of pure iron phosphate, 200,000 tons of phosphate flame retardants, and supporting facilities including 1.5 million tons of upstream reverse flotation ore dressing, 600,000 tons of sulfuric acid production, and 150,000 tons of food-grade refined phosphoric acid [1] - A 15 MW photovoltaic power generation facility and a dedicated railway station are also part of the project [1] Group 2: Current Status and Future Plans - Currently, the 600,000 tons of sulfuric acid production has been completed and is in operation, while the approval process for other projects is ongoing [1] - This project is a key part of the company's strategy to deepen its phosphate industry chain from "phosphate rock - phosphoric acid - iron phosphate/phosphate fertilizer," which will enhance the scale of refined phosphoric acid, iron phosphate, and phosphate flame retardants [1] Group 3: Strategic Implications - The initiative aims to transition the company from traditional phosphate fertilizers to high-value-added sectors, thereby expanding its influence in the phosphate chemical and new energy materials markets and enhancing its profitability resilience [1]

Group 1: Production Capacity and Infrastructure - The company has an annual production capacity of nearly 8 million tons for phosphate compound fertilizers, with an additional 1.9 million tons under construction [2][3] - The company is establishing production bases in various regions, including Hubei, Sichuan, Henan, Shandong, Liaoning, Heilongjiang, and Xinjiang, to cover major grain production areas and core markets [2][3] - The company is also constructing a 700,000-ton ammonia synthesis project at the Chengdu base, which includes supporting production lines for water-soluble compound fertilizers and controlled-release fertilizers [4] Group 2: Mining Projects and Resource Management - The company owns three phosphate mine resources in Leibo County, Sichuan, with a total resource volume of approximately 549 million tons [5] - The mining projects are progressing, with specific projects like the Aju Luogua mine and Niuniuzhai East section advancing in construction [5] - The company plans to use its self-mined phosphate rock for producing various products, ensuring stable supply and reducing production costs [6] Group 3: Phosphate Chemical Projects - The company is accelerating the development of a green circular industry project at the Yicheng base, which includes the construction of 150,000 tons of iron phosphate and 200,000 tons of phosphorus-based flame retardants [7][8] - The project aims to enhance the company's capabilities in fine phosphorus chemical products and extend its influence in the phosphorus chemical and new energy materials markets [8] Group 4: Iron Phosphate Business - The company has established a complete iron phosphate industrial chain with an annual capacity of 30,000 tons [8] - It has formed strategic partnerships with key clients in the lithium battery sector, ensuring stable supply of precursor materials [8] - The company aims to strengthen collaborations with quality customers to promote the continuous development of its new energy materials business [8]

Core Insights - The agricultural chemical sector experienced a slight increase of 0.38% on December 10, with Yara International leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3900.5, down 0.23%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13316.42, up 0.29% [1] Agricultural Chemical Sector Performance - Yara International (000893) closed at 46.94, up 2.78% with a trading volume of 90,100 shares [1] - YunTu Holdings (002539) closed at 10.86, up 2.26% with a trading volume of 136,400 shares [1] - Salt Lake Industry (000792) closed at 25.63, up 1.99% with a trading volume of 543,000 shares [1] - Other notable performers include BaTian Co. (002170) up 1.44%, Jiangshan Co. (600389) up 1.43%, and HongTaiYang (000525) up 1.39% [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The agricultural chemical sector saw a net outflow of 410 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 410 million yuan [2] - Notable net inflows from retail investors were observed in Yara International (000893) with 18.52 million yuan and New Yangfeng (000902) with 8.72 million yuan [2] - Conversely, significant net outflows from institutional investors were noted in Sichuan Meifeng (000731) and Hualu Hensheng (600426) [2]

Demand Side - The demand for phosphate rock in China is projected to be 11,320 million tons in 2024, with expectations of 11,802 million tons and 12,414 million tons in 2025 and 2026 respectively, resulting in an actual incremental demand of 482 million tons and 612 million tons [2] - Emerging demand from the energy storage sector is expected to drive the phosphate chemical industry, with the incremental demand for phosphate rock from energy storage batteries estimated at 393 million tons and 431 million tons for 2025 and 2026 respectively [2] - Traditional demand for phosphate fertilizers is expected to remain weak due to rising raw material prices, with a low likelihood of recovery in phosphate fertilizer demand in 2025 and 2026 [2] Supply Side - In 2024, China's phosphate rock capacity, effective capacity, and output are projected to be 19,447 million tons, 11,916 million tons, and 11,353 million tons respectively, with expected capacities of 21,732 million tons and 24,762 million tons in 2025 and 2026 [3] - The supply of phosphate rock is significantly affected by environmental safety incidents, leading to a large gap between planned and actual production capacities [3] - The phosphate iron industry is experiencing long-term overcapacity, with effective capacity and output for phosphate iron in 2024 estimated at 426 million tons and 205 million tons respectively, and expected to increase to 499 million tons and 540 million tons in 2025 and 2026 [3] Price Outlook - The operating rate for phosphate rock capacity in 2024 is expected to be 58%, with effective capacity operating at 95%, and projected to balance supply and demand in 2025 and 2026 [4] - Low-grade phosphate rock prices may face slight pressure, while high-grade phosphate rock prices are expected to remain elevated [4] - The phosphate iron market is anticipated to experience tight supply, with effective capacity operating rates expected to improve from 48% in 2024 to 60% and 80% in 2025 and 2026 respectively [4] Investment Recommendations - Companies with integrated phosphate rock and phosphate iron production capabilities are recommended, including Tianqi Materials, Hunan YN, and Zhongwei Co [5] - Companies with phosphate iron production and rich phosphate rock resources are expected to benefit significantly from rising phosphate iron prices, including Chuanheng Co, Xingfa Group, and Batian Co [5]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Dongwu Securities highlights the expected growth in demand for phosphate rock driven by emerging sectors, while traditional demand is projected to decline. The overall supply and demand dynamics for phosphate rock and iron phosphate are analyzed for the years 2024 to 2026 [1][2][3]. Demand Side - Phosphate rock demand in China is projected to be 11,320 million tons in 2024, with expectations of 11,802 million tons and 12,414 million tons in 2025 and 2026 respectively. The actual increase in demand is estimated at 482 million tons and 612 million tons [1]. - Emerging sectors, particularly energy storage and power batteries, are expected to drive demand for phosphate rock, with an increase of 393 million tons and 431 million tons in 2025 and 2026 respectively. Iron phosphate is anticipated to contribute significantly to this demand [1]. - Traditional demand for phosphate fertilizers is expected to weaken due to rising raw material prices, with a forecasted decline in phosphate fertilizer production in early 2025 [1]. - Iron phosphate demand is projected to reach 214 million tons in 2024, increasing to 325 million tons and 449 million tons in 2025 and 2026, respectively, with significant contributions from energy storage [1]. Supply Side - Phosphate rock production capacity in China is expected to be 19,447 million tons in 2024, with projections of 21,732 million tons and 24,762 million tons for 2025 and 2026. Effective capacity and production are also expected to increase correspondingly [2]. - The supply of phosphate rock is significantly impacted by environmental safety incidents, leading to a gap between planned and actual production capacity [2]. - The iron phosphate industry is characterized by long-term overcapacity, with effective capacity and production expected to rise from 426 million tons and 205 million tons in 2024 to 499 million tons and 540 million tons in 2025 and 2026, respectively [2]. Price Outlook - The operating rate for phosphate rock capacity is projected to be 58% in 2024, with expectations of 57% and 54% in 2025 and 2026. High-grade phosphate rock prices are expected to remain elevated, while low-grade prices may face slight pressure [3]. - The iron phosphate market is anticipated to experience tight supply conditions, with operating rates expected to improve significantly in 2025 and 2026, indicating a potential supply gap [3]. Recommended Companies - Companies with phosphate iron and phosphate rock layouts are recommended, including Tianci Materials, Hunan YN, and Zhongwei Co. [4]. - Integrated chemical companies with phosphate iron production and phosphate rock resources are expected to benefit from rising phosphate iron prices, with suggested companies including Chuanheng Co., Xingfa Group, and others [4].