公司研究丨点评报告丨森马服饰（002563.SZ） [Table_Title] 森马服饰 2023 年年报点评：H2 收入环比改善， 资产质量优化 分析师及联系人 SAC：S0490518020002 SAC：S0490513080003 SAC：S0490524020003 SFC：BQT624 森马服饰（002563.SZ） cjzqdt11111 2024-04-09 公司研究丨点评报告 [Table_Rank]投资评级 买入丨维持 [Table_Title 森马服饰 2023 2] 年年报点评：H2 收入环比改善， 资产质量优化 公司单 Q4 实现营收、归母净利润、扣非归母净利润 47.6、2.89、2.45 亿元，同比变动 8.5%、 -20.8%、-25%。2023 年累计实现营收、归母净利润、扣非归母净利润 136.6、11.2、10.2 亿 元，同比变动 2.5%、76.1%、105.3%。2023 年公司分红比例为 72%，派息 0.3 元/股，对应 股息率 5.2%。 ⚫ 收入 H2环比改善，加盟、休闲环比改善较多。分渠道，2023H1/H2 主业收入同比-1%/+5%， 其中直营收入同比 ...

[Table_invest] 买入（维持） 报告原因：业绩点评 ➢ 风险提示：人口出生率下滑的风险；消费疲软的风险；门店拓展不及预期的风险；海外业 务受阻的风险等。 二、分析师声明： ➢ 事件：4月1日，公司发布2023年年度报告，实现营收136.61亿元（+2.47%），归母净利 润11.22亿元（+76.06%）。其中，Q4实现营收47.62亿元（+8.52%），归母净利润2.89亿 元（-20.81%），基本符合预期。 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------|--------|-----------------------------|--------|--------|--------------------------|-------|-------|-----------------------------|-------| | 单位：百万元 | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | 单位：百万元 | 2023A | 2024E | 2025 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][21] Core Views - The company has shown significant profit recovery in 2023, with a notable increase in net profit by 76.06% year-on-year, driven by improved gross margins and cost control [4][20] - The company is expected to continue benefiting from positive retail trends in 2024, with an upward adjustment in net profit forecasts for 2024 and 2025 [21] Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 136.61 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.47%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 11.22 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 76.06% [4][20] - The company's gross margin improved to 44.02%, up 2.72 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to product management reforms and enhanced product offerings [17][20] - The company reported a decrease in inventory by 28.61% year-on-year, with inventory turnover days reduced to 155 days [18][20] Quarterly Performance - Quarterly revenue growth in 2023 showed fluctuations, with Q1 experiencing a decline of 9.29%, followed by positive growth in subsequent quarters [5] - The company’s net profit for Q1 was up 48.85% year-on-year, while Q4 saw a decline of 20.81% [5] Operational Developments - The company established a live-streaming division in 2023, enhancing its digital transformation and operational efficiency [7][20] - As of the end of 2023, the company had opened 70 stores in international markets, including Singapore, indicating a proactive approach to market expansion [7][20] Future Outlook - The company anticipates stable growth in retail performance in early 2024, with increased enthusiasm from franchisees [21] - The report projects earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 0.49 yuan, 0.56 yuan, and 0.64 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 12 and 10 for 2024 and 2025 [21]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [1] Core Views - The company has shown a robust performance in 2023, with revenue increasing by 2.47% to 13.66 billion RMB and net profit rising by 76.06% to 1.12 billion RMB, driven by improved operational efficiency and reduced discount rates [8][30] - The children's apparel segment outperformed, with revenue growth of 4.9% to 9.37 billion RMB and a gross margin increase of 4.9 percentage points, while casual wear saw a revenue decline of 2.6% to 4.17 billion RMB [2] - The retail channel growth outpaced wholesale, with direct sales and franchise channels growing by 19.2% and 9.7% respectively, while online sales declined by 3.5% [2] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 13.66 billion RMB, with a forecasted growth of 10.2% to 15.05 billion RMB in 2024 [7] - Net profit is expected to reach 1.30 billion RMB in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15.6% [31] - The gross margin improved to 44.0% in 2023, up by 2.7 percentage points, while the overall expense ratio decreased by 1.1 percentage points [8][39] Future Outlook - The company anticipates continued growth in 2024, supported by a healthy inventory base and enhanced operational efficiency, with net profit projections of 1.30 billion RMB for 2024, 1.46 billion RMB for 2025, and 1.61 billion RMB for 2026 [18][31] - The reasonable valuation range is maintained at 6.70 to 7.10 RMB, corresponding to a PE ratio of 14-15x for 2024 [18][32]

核心观点 森马服饰 002563.SZ 公司研究 | 年报点评 | --- | --- | |--------|-------------------------------| | | | | 施红梅 | 021-63325888*6076 | | | shihongmei@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号： S0860511010001 | | 朱炎 | 021-63325888*6107 | | | zhuyan3@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号： S0860521070006 | | | 香港证监会牌照： BSW044 | 公司主要财务信息 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------|--------|---------------|-------|-------|------- ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [14][15]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 13.661 billion yuan in 2023, representing a year-on-year increase of 2.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.122 billion yuan, which is a significant increase of 76.1% year-on-year [15][32]. - The company is expected to recover scale growth in 2024, supported by improvements in profitability and the implementation of a new retail strategy [15][25]. - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2024-2025 and added a forecast for 2026, with expected net profits of 1.29 billion yuan, 1.47 billion yuan, and 1.63 billion yuan respectively [15]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported a gross profit margin of 44.0%, an increase of 2.7 percentage points year-on-year, with net profit margin reaching 8.21%, up by 3.4 percentage points [16][41]. - The company’s operating income is projected to grow to 15.202 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 11.3% [3]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is expected to be 0.48 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 11.8 times [15][3]. Revenue Breakdown - The revenue from children's clothing in 2023 was 9.373 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 4.92%, while leisure clothing revenue was 4.171 billion yuan, down 2.58% year-on-year [33][32]. - Online sales in 2023 amounted to 6.228 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.51% year-on-year, while offline sales showed recovery with direct sales increasing by 19.19% and franchise sales by 9.68% [23][32]. Store Network - As of the end of 2023, the total number of stores was 7,937, a net decrease of 203 stores from the beginning of the year, with direct and franchise stores decreasing by 42 and 172 respectively [10][56]. - The company is expected to achieve net store openings in 2024 as it continues to adjust its offline store strategy [10][15]. Operational Efficiency - The company has improved its inventory management, with inventory levels decreasing by 28.6% year-on-year, and inventory turnover days reduced to 155 days [16][58]. - The net cash flow from operating activities for 2023 was 1.941 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 65.1%, indicating a recovery in cash flow health [16][58].

Financial Performance - The company's operating revenue for 2023 was ¥13,660,527,097.37, an increase of 2.47% compared to ¥13,331,204,046.27 in 2022[100]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 reached ¥1,121,501,423.25, representing a significant increase of 76.06% from ¥636,999,237.66 in 2022[100]. - Basic and diluted earnings per share for 2023 were both ¥0.42, reflecting a 75.00% increase from ¥0.24 in 2022[100]. - The weighted average return on equity was 10.06%, an increase of 4.36% compared to 5.70% in 2022[100]. - The company reported a significant retail growth of nearly 3 times in key product categories, driven by enhanced consumer insights and product competitiveness[76]. - The operating profit for 2023 was 1.505 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year increase of 72.75%[183]. - Revenue from children's clothing reached 9.373 billion CNY, accounting for 68.61% of total revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 4.92%[192]. - Revenue from casual wear was 4.171 billion CNY, which is a decrease of 2.58% year-on-year, representing 30.54% of total revenue[192]. - Online sales contributed 6.228 billion CNY, making up 45.59% of total revenue, but decreased by 3.51% compared to the previous year[192]. - Direct sales increased by 19.19% to 1.374 billion CNY, representing 10.06% of total revenue[192]. Cash Flow and Assets - The net cash flow from operating activities increased by 65.08% year-on-year, mainly due to a reduction in payments for goods[16]. - Financial assets at the beginning of the period were approximately CNY 1.49 billion, with a fair value change of CNY 30.14 million during the period[42]. - The total financial assets at the end of the period amounted to approximately CNY 1.07 billion, reflecting significant changes in asset composition[42]. - As of the end of the reporting period, the company's cash assets amounted to 8.911 billion yuan, indicating a strong cash reserve[160]. - The company maintains a low debt ratio, with most liabilities being operational, which contributes to its strong financial health and risk resilience[160]. Research and Development - R&D investment amounted to ¥280,839,330.86, representing 2.06% of operating revenue, a decrease of 0.16% from the previous year[13]. - The R&D personnel accounted for 26.19% of the total workforce, indicating a strong emphasis on innovation[13]. - The company established R&D bases with leading suppliers to enhance fabric technology and increase the market share of functional products[67]. - The company plans to continue investing in product innovation in 2024, aiming to create leading mental explosive products centered around consumer needs[77]. Brand Strategy and Marketing - The company is committed to improving brand influence through collaborations and media promotions, particularly in the education sector[2]. - Balabala brand will focus on the strategic goal of "brand leadership, product leadership, and efficiency-driven" for its core work in 2024[33]. - The company plans to enhance brand marketing by promoting the "New Semir" store image and increasing marketing investments to boost brand influence[54]. - The brand's reputation increased by 86% after collaborating with well-known male and female endorsers and participating in the Shanghai Fashion Week for a down jacket launch[64]. - Balabala's brand slogan "Childhood is Different" was revitalized, generating strong engagement on social media and enhancing brand influence through collaborations with KOLs[80]. Operational Efficiency - The company will continue to enhance the shopping experience for consumers and focus on product development and operational efficiency for quality growth[31]. - Balabala improved operational efficiency in 2023, enhancing inventory turnover and overall brand health, with significant improvements in new product sell-through rates[35]. - The company aims to enhance the efficiency of the entire product chain by continuing to deepen the product manager system reform[67]. - The new basic store pilot in 2023 exceeded expectations, with product efficiency higher than regular stores, promoting nationwide replication through category management and standardized operations[63]. - Inventory turnover days for apparel stood at 159 days, with total inventory quantity at 70,421,911 pieces, and a year-on-year decrease in inventory balance of ¥1,161,612,148.86, or 25.58%[74]. Market Presence and Expansion - The company plans to expand its offline store presence in key shopping centers and build a digital store model in 2023[8]. - The company opened its first store in Singapore in December 2023, expanding its international presence to 70 stores in total[189]. - The company operates primarily in the casual and children's clothing sectors, with its main brands being Semir and Balabala, targeting consumers aged 18-35 and 0-14 respectively[129]. - The company has established a comprehensive online and offline retail system, including specialty stores, supermarkets, shopping centers, and e-commerce platforms, with a focus on franchise and direct sales models[131]. Challenges and Risks - The company faced risks related to macroeconomic fluctuations and increased competition in the children's clothing market, which could impact future performance[107]. - The company is facing increased competition in the children's clothing market due to consumption upgrades and demographic changes, which may pose risks to its business[132]. - The company is facing challenges from rapid changes in consumer preferences and the competitive landscape, particularly from international brands expanding into lower-tier cities[147].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [9] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 13.66 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 2%, and a net profit of 1.12 billion yuan, up 76% year-on-year [7] - The company is expected to achieve healthy growth in 2024, with projected revenue growth of over 10% and net profit growth of 15% to 20% [7] - The report highlights improvements in profitability quality, with a gross margin increase of 2.7 percentage points to 44.0% in 2023 [7] Financial Summary - **Revenue (million yuan)**: - 2022A: 13,331 - 2023A: 13,661 - 2024E: 15,540 - 2025E: 17,315 - 2026E: 19,060 - Year-on-year growth rates: -13.5% (2022A), 2.5% (2023A), 13.8% (2024E) [2] - **Net Profit (million yuan)**: - 2022A: 637 - 2023A: 1,122 - 2024E: 1,320 - 2025E: 1,508 - 2026E: 1,666 - Year-on-year growth rates: -57.1% (2022A), 76.1% (2023A), 17.7% (2024E) [2] - **EPS (yuan/share)**: - 2022A: 0.24 - 2023A: 0.42 - 2024E: 0.49 - 2025E: 0.56 - 2026E: 0.62 [2] - **Return on Equity (ROE)**: - 2022A: 5.6% - 2023A: 9.7% - 2024E: 10.9% - 2025E: 11.8% - 2026E: 12.2% [2] - **P/E Ratio**: - 2022A: 23.8 - 2023A: 13.5 - 2024E: 11.5 - 2025E: 10.0 - 2026E: 9.1 [2] - **P/B Ratio**: - 2022A: 1.4 - 2023A: 1.3 - 2024E: 1.3 - 2025E: 1.2 - 2026E: 1.1 [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [4][17]. Core Views - The company reported its 2023 annual results, which met expectations, showing a revenue of 13.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.12 billion yuan, up 76.1% year-on-year [4]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.3 yuan per share, with a payout ratio of approximately 72%, corresponding to a current dividend yield of about 5% [4]. - The company is focusing on optimizing its business and implementing a new retail model, which has improved operational quality, with a gross margin increase of 2.7 percentage points to 44.0% in 2023 [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2023, the company recorded a revenue of 4.76 billion yuan, an 8.5% year-on-year increase, but a net profit of 290 million yuan, down 20.8% year-on-year due to impairment provisions for investment properties [4]. - The company’s inventory situation improved significantly, with year-end inventory at 2.75 billion yuan, a decrease of 29% from the beginning of the year [5]. Business Segments - The children's clothing segment showed resilience, with revenue of 9.37 billion yuan, a 4.9% year-on-year increase, and a gross margin improvement of 4.9 percentage points to 46.8% [17]. - The offline channel has seen recovery, with revenue from direct and franchise channels growing by 19.2% and 9.7% respectively [17]. Future Outlook - The company plans to continue cash dividends over the next three years, distributing no less than 10% of the annual distributable profit each year, and a cumulative distribution of at least 30% of the average annual distributable profit over three years [4]. - The company expects to achieve net profits of 1.35 billion, 1.64 billion, and 1.89 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 11, 9, and 8 times [17].

股票代码：002563 投资者关系电话：021-67288431 投资者关系邮箱：ir@semir.com 环境、社会及治理报告 浙江森马服饰股份有限公司 2023 年度 2 0 2 3 E n v i r o n m e n t , S o c i a l a n d G o v e r n a n c e R e p o r t 浙江森马服饰股份有限公司 2023年度环境、社会及治理报告 关于报告 丨 02 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假记载、误导性陈 述或重大遗漏。 报告组织范围 报告时间范围 本报告所涵盖的时间范围为2023年1月1日至2023年12月31日，并包含必要的相关信息。 报告编制依据 本报告参考全球报告倡议组织GRI《可持续发展报告指南》（GRI Standards）、中国社会 科学院《中国企业社会责任报告指南》（CASS-CSR4.0），深圳证券交易所《深圳证券交易所 上市公司社会责任报告披露要求》的相关要求。 数据来源 本报告涉及的财务数据与《浙江森马服饰股份有限公司2023年年度报告》相符，其他数据来 自公司内部统计。如无特别说明，本报告所列财务数 ...