We believe Google Play's policy overhaul could suggest an important milestone for mobile platform fee structure, which likely benefits Chinese game companies with greater overseas mobile publishing exposure and might encourage more studios to explore overseas opportunities. As Google Play will break down 30% standard IAP service fee into 20% service fee for new installs or under specific incentive program and 5% optional billing fee charged by Google billing system, this might bring gradual GPM improvement ...

游戏板块如何布局？20260305 摘要 费，但并非必然支付给谷歌，若选择引导用户至官网支付或采用非 Google Play Billing 方式，该 5%可减免。理论上若实现 100%"切支付"（不通过 Google Play Billing 收款），仅需向谷歌支付 15%~20%的服务费，相当于 由 30%大幅降至 15%~20%。该政策将从 2026 年起逐步在全球落地，节奏 为先欧洲、后美国、再日韩，直至 2027 年 9 月在全球完成落地。 渠道反垄断 进程已持续五六年：起点为 2020 年 Epic Games（《堡垒之夜》开发商）对 苹果与谷歌发起反垄断诉讼。此后 App Store 与 Google Play 在美国、欧洲、 日韩及国内等地区持续面临政府或企业端的诉讼与审查，焦点集中在向游戏公 司收取 30%费用的苛刻性。在监管与诉讼压力下，2020 年至今两大渠道持续 向开发者让利、放松限制并下调费率。当前苹果允许外链或第三方支付，费率 因地区诉讼进展差异呈 case by case，部分地区降至 10%~20%，部分地区 仍在 26%~27%，总体较 30%有所下降；谷歌则如上所述降至 1 ...

传媒 2026 年 03 月 02 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 方光照（分析师） fangguangzhao@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520030004 政策加码、AI 赋能，内容出海步伐加快 全球数字内容市场空间广阔，国产内容积极出海，其中游戏出海规模领先，短剧 出海收入高增。复盘网文、游戏、短剧出海历程，我们认为内容出海整体趋势为 内容精品化发展，分发逐步由委外代理转为自主控制，国内企业在做大出海市场 的同时，亦在提升产业链价值占比。我们以相关指数成分公司为主要样本，计算 得传媒板块 2019-2024 年境外收入占比由 5.7%提升至 10.4%，游戏板块由 26.6% 提升至 38.5%，影视制作板块由 10.7%提升至 24.6%。展望未来，我们认为博大 精深的中华文化为出海内容企业提供丰富"原料"，随文化交流加深，国内企业 或掌握更易于海外理解的内容呈现形式；叠加激励政策持续出台，以及 AI 技术 发展扩大优质内容供给，看好内容出海市场规模加速扩大。 数据来源：聚源 -17% 0% 17% 34% 50% 67% 2025-03 2025-07 2025-11 传媒 沪深 ...

叶诗人之分堂 相关研究 证券分析师 2026 年 03 月 03 日 本期投资后了 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 我们对重点公司 2025 年度业绩进行预测：2025E 业绩同比增速在 50%以上的有：吉比 ○ 特、大麦娱乐、美图公司、猫眼娱乐、心动公司、泡泡玛特、光线传媒、世纪华通；同 比增速在 20-50%区间的有：恺英网络、三七互娱、巨人网络：同比增速在 0-20%区间 的有：腾讯控股、快手；同比增速低于0%区间的有：分众传媒、神州泰岳、阅文集团、 芒果超媒；同比扭亏的有：完美世界、哔哩哔哩。 游戏：25 年手游增长国内基数提升增速放缓，端游和出海亮眼。2025 年全年/26 年 1 ● 月，国内手游同比增速 7.92%/-1.52%，端游同比增长 14.97%/23.46%，自研游戏出海 同比增长 10.23%/24.05%。国内游戏市场有局部亮点：大 DAU 年轻向游戏，包括搜打 撤品类、端游。出海游戏系 SLG 品类持续突破。展望 2026 年，国内重点关注长青游戏 的普及，出海游戏重点关注休闲品类突破。 O 云计算和大模型：Agent、多模态突破，国产模型性价比优势明显，拉动 to ...

行 业 及 产 业 2026 年 03 月 03 日 Token 爆发利好 AI 云和大模型， 游戏 PC 及出海亮眼 看好 ——互联网传媒 2025 年四季度业绩前瞻 本期投资提示： 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 林起贤 A0230519060002 linqx@swsresearch.com 袁伟嘉 A0230519080013 yuanwj@swsresearch.com 任梦妮 A0230521100005 renmn@swsresearch.com 夏嘉励 A0230522090001 xiajl@swsresearch.com 赵航 A0230522100002 zhaohang@swsresearch.com 研究支持 张淇元 A0230124080001 zhangqy@swsresearch.com 联系人 陈悦 A0230524100003 chenyue@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.co ...

2026.2.23-2026.3.1，传媒行业（申万）-5.10%，同期沪深 300 +1.08%， 上证指数+1.98%，深证成指+2.80%，创业板指+1.05%，恒生科技指 数-4.95%。细分行业来看，游戏/电视广播/影视院线/广告营销/数字媒 体/出版，分别-3.41%/-0.77%/-16.82%/-3.43%/-7.49%/-1.71%。 行业重点数据及动态更新 [Table_Main] 行业研究|可选消费|媒体Ⅱ 证券研究报告 媒体Ⅱ行业周报、月报 2026 年 03 月 03 日 [Table_Title] 《异环》定档 4 月 23 日，昆仑万维发 布 SkyReels V4 ——传媒互联网行业周报 [Table_Summary] 报告要点： 市场表现 我们看好 AI 应用、文化出海等主题方向，重点关注游戏、IP、短剧、 营销、出版等子板块，标的方面推荐关注：巨人网络、恺英网络、完 美世界、三七互娱、世纪华通、吉比特、神州泰岳、浙数文化、昆仑 万维、快手、心动公司、姚记科技、上海电影、芒果超媒、南方传媒、 [Table_Invest] 推荐|维持 [Table_ 过去一年PicQuote ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a neutral investment rating to the media and internet industry, indicating a relative performance range of -10% to +10% compared to the benchmark index [35]. Core Insights - The media index experienced a decline of 5.1% from February 24 to February 27, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 7.1%. The total transaction volume was 336.7 billion yuan, which represents a decrease compared to the previous period [6][7]. - All sub-sectors within the media industry saw declines, with notable performances from individual stocks such as CITIC Publishing, which rose by 38%, and Bona Film Group, which fell by 29% [16]. - The report attributes the market movements to profit-taking ahead of the Spring Festival, AI applications, and high-frequency gaming data [16]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The media index's performance ranked last among 28 primary industry indices, with a transaction volume of 336.7 billion yuan, accounting for 3.4% of the total A-share market [7][16]. - Sub-sectors such as film and television, digital media, and advertising all experienced significant declines, while broadcasting and publishing showed some resilience [16]. AI Sector - The upcoming launch of Deepseek V4 is anticipated to enhance productivity in AI applications, particularly in the entertainment sector. The report highlights the potential for accelerated token consumption and international narratives [19]. - Key companies to watch in the AI space include Alibaba, Zhiyuan, Minimax, and Kunlun Wanwei, with application-focused firms like Zhejiang Shuju, Shanghai Film, and Aofei Entertainment also recommended [19]. Gaming Sector - The report expresses optimism regarding major gaming titles and a high level of activity in Q1. Recommended stocks include Perfect World, Kaiying Network, and Century Huatong for A-shares, and Tencent Holdings and Xindong Company for H-shares [19]. IP and Internet - The report forecasts a favorable commercial landscape for IP in the AI era, suggesting a focus on companies like Shanghai Film and Aofei Entertainment [19]. - The internet sector is influenced by geopolitical factors and a shift towards more stable hardware investments, with a focus on AI and consumer sectors. Companies like Tencent, Alibaba, and Meituan are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [19].

Core Viewpoint - The data indicates significant outflows of capital from various stocks, particularly in the metals and machinery sectors, reflecting investor sentiment and market dynamics as of March 2. Group 1: Stock Performance and Capital Outflow - Zijin Mining experienced a capital outflow of 1.369 billion, with a decline of 0.58% in stock price [1][2] - Luoyang Molybdenum saw a capital outflow of 0.945 billion, with a stock price decrease of 1.67% [1][2] - LEO Group had a capital outflow of 0.927 billion, with a significant drop of 5.71% in stock price [1][2] - Hunan Gold reported a capital outflow of 0.907 billion, despite a stock price increase of 5.38% [1][2] - Northern Rare Earth faced a capital outflow of 0.728 billion, with a decline of 3.08% in stock price [1][2] - Luxshare Precision recorded a capital outflow of 0.721 billion, with a decrease of 3.31% in stock price [1][2] Group 2: Additional Notable Stocks - Huasheng Tiancheng had a capital outflow of 0.703 billion, with a stock price increase of 4.42% [1][2] - Dongfang Fortune experienced a capital outflow of 0.607 billion, with a decline of 2.35% in stock price [1][2] - Kunlun Wanwei saw a capital outflow of 0.594 billion, with a stock price drop of 5.61% [1][2] - China Merchants Energy reported a capital outflow of 0.583 billion, with a stock price increase of 1.85% [1][2] - Baosteel had a capital outflow of 0.552 billion, with a slight increase of 1.23% in stock price [1][2] Group 3: Further Capital Outflows - Century Huatong faced a capital outflow of 0.533 billion, with a stock price decrease of 7.12% [3] - Tongling Nonferrous Metals reported a capital outflow of 0.514 billion, with a decline of 1.51% in stock price [3] - Sanhua Intelligent Control had a capital outflow of 0.501 billion, with a decrease of 3.34% in stock price [3] - Wangsu Science & Technology experienced a capital outflow of 0.500 billion, with a decline of 3.37% in stock price [3] - BlueFocus Communication Group saw a capital outflow of 0.494 billion, with a significant drop of 6.81% in stock price [3] - Runze Technology reported a capital outflow of 0.487 billion, with a decline of 2.74% in stock price [3] - Changyuan Tungsten had a capital outflow of 0.472 billion, with a notable increase of 7.39% in stock price [3] - Hunan Silver reported a capital outflow of 0.459 billion, with a stock price increase of 2.15% [3] - Shenghong Technology faced a capital outflow of 0.446 billion, with a decline of 1.65% in stock price [3]

Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26,630, up 0.95% for the day and up 3.90% year-to-date [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index closed at 5,137, up 0.56% for the day but down 6.86% year-to-date [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4,162, up 0.39% for the day and up 4.89% year-to-date [1] - The Dow Jones Index closed at 48,977, down 1.05% for the day and up 1.90% year-to-date [1] Currency Performance - The Renminbi Index is at 97.810, down 0.74% over the last month but up 1.84% over the last six months [2] - The US Dollar Index is at 97.744, up 1.58% over the last month but down 0.50% over the last six months [2] - The exchange rate for Renminbi to USD is 0.146, down 1.38% over the last month and down 4.09% over the last six months [2] Commodity Performance - Brent crude oil is priced at $71.39 per barrel, up 7.21% over the last month and up 7.92% over the last six months [3] - Gold is priced at $5,179.43 per ounce, down 0.02% over the last month but up 52.45% over the last six months [3] - Silver is priced at $89.872 per ounce, down 19.82% over the last month but up 132.83% over the last six months [3] Company News - NIO (09866.HK) has signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Bosch, focusing on core technologies for smart electric vehicles [22] - New World Development (00017.HK) reported a narrowed interim loss of HKD 37.3 billion, with a core operating profit decline of 17.7% [23][24] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority reported a 1.1% increase in M2 and M3 money supply in January [17][18] Economic Indicators - Hong Kong's overall export value in January increased by 33.8% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations [14][16] - The Hong Kong government recorded a surplus of HKD 879 billion in the first ten months of the fiscal year, with fiscal reserves increasing to HKD 7,422 billion [19]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes three main themes: Coding, Agent, and AIGC multimodal, which are expected to thrive despite market volatility [2] - Long-term investment opportunities are identified in companies like Alibaba, Tencent, Kuaishou, and Bilibili, which are expected to rebound after the current market fluctuations [2] - Short-term fluctuations in stock prices are noted, particularly influenced by external factors and market sentiment regarding AI applications [2] - The report highlights the competitive landscape in the Agent sector and the potential for growth in the AIGC multimodal space, particularly with the introduction of new models and applications [2] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Shenwan Media Index experienced a weekly decline of 5.10%, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.98% during the same period [2] - The report notes significant volatility in the market, influenced by external factors and the "AI consumption theory" in the US stock market [2] Key Companies and Opportunities - Companies such as Kunlun Wanwei, Perfect World, and Kayi Network are highlighted as key stocks for March, with expectations of strong performance based on their upcoming projects and market positioning [2] - Kunlun Wanwei is noted for its comprehensive AI application strategy and significant revenue potential from short video content [2] - Perfect World is expected to exceed pre-launch reservation numbers for its new game, indicating strong market interest [2] - Kayi Network is anticipated to launch an AI-native social application, which could enhance its market presence [2] Industry Trends - The report discusses the robust performance of domestic AI models and their revenue elasticity, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [2] - The introduction of new multimodal models, such as Google's NanoBanana2, is expected to further advance the industry [2] - The report suggests that the competition among major domestic companies in the Agent sector is intensifying, creating new market opportunities [2]