Core Viewpoint - Apple's recent decision to lower its commission rates in China is beneficial for local game developers and companies offering subscription services through apps [1] Group 1: Commission Rate Changes - Starting from Sunday, Apple will reduce its commission rate for in-app purchases and paid app transactions in China from 30% to 25% [1] - This change is expected to increase the gross margins for Chinese gaming companies, particularly Tencent, NetEase, and Century Huatong [1] Group 2: Impact on Competitors - Analysts suggest that this move may pressure Android app stores in China to also lower their commission rates, which currently stand at around 50% for most new games [1] - Although some fees have slightly decreased in recent years through case-by-case negotiations, the overall high commission rates remain a concern for developers [1]

招商证券股份有限公司研究员顾佳、谢笑妍2月2日发布研报《世纪华通(002602)：全球手游龙头 25年利润大幅增长 海内外产品多点开花》称，维持"强烈推荐"投资评级。 世纪华通2月3日收报20.38元，之后一个月股价连续下跌。 中国经济网北京3月12日讯 世纪华通(002602.SZ)今日收盘报16.93元，下跌2.03%。世纪华通连续 第4个交易日收阴线。 (责任编辑：徐自立) ...

招商证券股份有限公司研究员顾佳、谢笑妍2月2日发布研报《世纪华通：全球手游龙头25年利润大幅增 长海内外产品多点开花》称，维持"强烈推荐"投资评级。 世纪华通2月3日收报20.38元，之后一个月股价连续下跌。 中国经济网北京3月11日讯世纪华通（002602）(002602.SZ)今日收盘报17.28元，下跌2.54%。 ...

[Table_Main] 行业研究|可选消费|媒体Ⅱ 证券研究报告 媒体Ⅱ行业周报、月报 2026 年 03 月 10 日 [Table_Title] OpenClaw 持续火爆， Google Play 下调分成比 ——传媒互联网行业周报 [Table_Summary] 报告要点： 市场表现 2026.3.2-2026.3.8，传媒行业（申万）-6.97%，同期沪深 300 -1.07%， 上证指数-0.93%，深证成指-2.22%，创业板指-2.45%，恒生科技指数 -3.67%。游戏/电视广播/影视院线/广告营销/数字媒体/出版，分别- 6.04%/-7.38%/-8.01%/-8.01%/-8.24%/-5.77%。 行业重点数据及动态更新 （1）AI 应用：本周（2026.3.2-2026.3.8） OpenRouter 平台 token 调用量为 14.8T，环比+8.82%，其中阶跃星辰 Step 3.5 Flash 新进入 Top5。本周 Deepseek/豆包/腾讯元宝/千问七麦数据预估 IOS 端下载 量分别为 28.99/209.47/69.77/164.49 万次，环比分别+13.18 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the media industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the significant growth potential in AI applications and gaming, driven by advancements in large models and favorable policy changes, such as Google's reduced revenue share for app stores, which is expected to enhance profit margins for domestic gaming companies [4][30] - OpenClaw, an AI assistant platform, has gained immense popularity, topping GitHub's software star ranking, indicating a strong demand for AI tools that enhance user productivity [3][31] - The gaming sector is poised for growth with the upcoming launch of high-potential titles like "异环" (Yihuan), which has already garnered significant pre-registration interest [4][21] Industry Overview - The media industry is experiencing a shift with AI technology accelerating commercialization, particularly in content generation and gaming [30] - The gaming sector has shown resilience, with notable titles like "王者荣耀" (Honor of Kings) leading the iOS sales charts, indicating strong consumer engagement [11][16] - The film industry is also performing well, with "飞驰人生 3" (Fast and Furious 3) achieving the highest box office revenue for the week [25] Key Company Recommendations - For AI applications, recommended companies include Tencent Holdings and Kuaishou, with beneficiaries like Alibaba and Kunlun Wanwei [3] - In the gaming sector, key recommendations include Perfect World, Kying Network, and Xindong Company, with beneficiaries such as Century Huatong and 37 Interactive Entertainment [4] - For cloud computing, Shunwang Technology is highlighted as a key player, with beneficiaries including Zhejiang Shuju Culture [3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating a positive outlook for the sector compared to the overall market performance [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the narrative around AI disruption has not yet shown financial evidence, primarily reflecting valuation changes. The optimism surrounding AI-native companies and hardware-heavy assets is balanced by concerns over profitability in traditional software and internet sectors [2]. - Domestic internet companies are viewed as having low starting valuations, with user stickiness, ecosystem, and data value being crucial for competing in the AI era. However, the market does not currently reflect optimistic expectations [2]. - The upcoming March earnings reports are expected to shift focus towards profitability, and the resumption of share buybacks post-silent period may boost market confidence [2]. - Bilibili's advertising business is anticipated to benefit from increased demand driven by AI applications, although there are concerns that AI investments may lower profitability. Nonetheless, AI advertising and video content are expected to enhance the value of user-generated content (UGC) communities [2]. - Alibaba's commitment to an open-source strategy for Qwen has alleviated recent concerns stemming from personnel changes [2]. Summary by Sections AI and Software Market - The North American software index has rebounded by 14% since February 23, while the Hong Kong internet sector saw a 4% rebound last week. The balance between optimism for AI and pessimism regarding traditional software disruption risks is noted [2]. - The report emphasizes that the current AI disruption narrative lacks financial backing, primarily reflecting changes in valuation rather than actual performance [2]. Domestic Internet Companies - Domestic internet firms are characterized by low initial valuations, with user engagement and data value being critical for success in the AI landscape. The market's expectations remain subdued [2]. Earnings Reports and Market Confidence - The March earnings reports are expected to become the focal point for trading, with the potential for share buybacks to restore market confidence following the silent period [2]. Advertising and AI Applications - Bilibili's advertising sector is projected to benefit from AI-driven demand, although concerns persist regarding the impact of AI investments on profitability. The report suggests that AI-driven advertising and video content could significantly enhance UGC community value [2]. Key Companies and Valuations - The report includes a valuation table for key companies, indicating their market capitalization, revenue, and profit forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026. For instance, Tencent Holdings has a market cap of 41,710 million RMB with projected revenues of 6,603 million RMB for 2024 and 7,556 million RMB for 2025, reflecting a 14% year-over-year growth [4].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the implications of Google Play's fee structure adjustment on the mobile gaming industry, particularly focusing on Chinese game companies with overseas exposure [1][2]. Core Insights - **Google Play's Policy Overhaul**: Google Play is restructuring its in-app purchase (IAP) service fees, reducing the standard 30% fee to a 20% fee for new installs and a 5% optional billing fee. This change is expected to improve gross profit margins (GPM) for game companies, depending on their domestic and overseas market mix [1][4]. - **Encouragement for Overseas Expansion**: The new fee structure may incentivize more game studios to explore international markets, benefiting companies like Tencent, NetEase, and Century Huatong, especially those with significant overseas revenue [1][8]. - **Competitive Landscape**: Other app stores may follow Google's lead to remain competitive, creating a favorable environment for game developers and publishers, particularly in the online gaming sector [1]. Company-Specific Insights - **Tencent Holdings**: In Q3 2025, Tencent's overseas game revenues reached RMB 20.8 billion, accounting for 33% of online game revenues. The fee overhaul is expected to enhance GPM for Tencent's value-added services (VAS) and could lead to higher equity value from Epic Games if its store is registered on Google Play [8][13]. - **NetEase**: Currently, less than 10% of NetEase's game revenues come from overseas, suggesting a smaller impact on GPM from the fee changes compared to Tencent [8][11]. - **Century Huatong**: In H1 2025, Century Huatong's overseas revenues made up 52% of its total, primarily from its mobile game portfolio. The company plans to allocate its budget towards traffic acquisition and content updates to enhance product lifecycle and return on investment [8][9]. Valuation Insights - **Century Huatong**: Target price set at RMB 24.0 based on a 20x PE ratio for 2026 estimates, reflecting its position as the third-largest online game company in China [9]. - **NetEase**: Target price of US$165 based on a sum-of-the-parts valuation, with online gaming valued at a P/E of 15x and a net margin assumption of 41% [11]. - **Tencent Holdings**: Target price of HK$783 based on a sum-of-the-parts approach, with various segments valued at different P/E ratios [13]. Risks - **Century Huatong**: Risks include delayed launches of significant game titles and a potential slowdown in the auto parts business [10]. - **NetEase**: Risks involve unexpected slowdowns in core titles and declines in rankings for key mobile games [12]. - **Tencent Holdings**: Risks include revenue slowdowns in core PC games, unsuccessful mobile game launches, and changes in the regulatory environment [14]. Additional Considerations - The changes in Google Play's fee structure are seen as a significant milestone that could reshape the mobile gaming landscape, particularly for Chinese companies looking to expand internationally [1][2]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the implications for the mobile gaming industry and specific companies involved.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: The gaming industry is expected to experience significant growth in 2026, driven by existing games going global, increased penetration in the female market, and migration to cross-platform (PC/console) gaming [2][24]. - **Valuation Context**: The gaming sector is currently valued at approximately 15 times earnings, which is below the normal range of 17-20 times, indicating a potential investment opportunity [1][7]. Company-Specific Insights - **Century Huatong (DianDian Interactive)**: - Shifted focus from mini-games to casual gaming, with new products like "Trackstar" showing revenue growth of 28%-79% [1]. - The company is expected to replicate the high penetration path of domestic SLG games globally [1]. - **Giant Network**: - The game "Supernatural Action Group" ranked in the top 10 during the Spring Festival, indicating strong performance and potential for ARPU (Average Revenue Per User) growth [1][10]. - **Xindong Company**: - The game "Xindong Town" saw over 100% revenue growth in two months post-launch overseas, with a Discord community exceeding 800,000 members, filling a gap in the mobile "Animal Crossing-like" market [1][14][15]. - **Perfect World**: - The game "Yihuan" is set to launch on April 23, 2026, with positive feedback from beta tests, expected to have a significantly higher profit margin than traditional mobile games due to its PC-centric distribution [1][19]. Market Dynamics - **Google's Fee Reduction**: - Starting in 2026, Google will reduce its revenue share from 30% to a range of 15%-25%, potentially increasing profit margins for overseas companies by 2-6 percentage points [1][4][5][6]. - The policy allows for a significant reduction in fees if companies direct users to external payment methods [5]. - **Valuation Trends**: - A-share and Hong Kong-listed gaming companies are currently undervalued, with A-share companies averaging around 15 times earnings, significantly lower than the historical average of 17-20 times [7][24]. Growth Opportunities - **Casual Gaming Market**: - The casual gaming segment is the largest category in overseas gaming, with a market share of 46.9% in 2025. Domestic companies are expected to increase their penetration in this space [8][9]. - **Future Product Pipeline**: - Century Huatong is positioned as a strong player in the casual gaming market, with several new games in development that could enhance its market position [9]. Strategic Recommendations - **Investment Focus**: - Recommended companies for investment include Perfect World, Century Huatong, Giant Network, and Xindong Company, based on their growth potential and market positioning [25]. Conclusion - The gaming industry is poised for a significant upswing in 2026, with favorable market conditions and strategic shifts among key players. The reduction in channel fees by Google presents a substantial opportunity for profit margin enhancement, particularly for companies with a strong overseas presence.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the media industry [1] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the acceleration of content going overseas, driven by policy support and AI empowerment, with a focus on high-quality content and upgraded distribution models [3][12] - The overseas revenue share for the media sector is projected to increase from 5.7% in 2019 to 10.4% by 2024, with the gaming sector's share rising from 26.6% to 38.5% during the same period [3][12] - The report highlights the significant growth in overseas revenue for short dramas, which is expected to see a year-on-year increase of 263% in 2025 [3][12] Summary by Sections 1. Policy Support and AI Empowerment - The global digital content market is expanding, with the Chinese content industry actively pursuing overseas opportunities, particularly in gaming and short dramas [3][12] - The report notes that the overseas revenue for the media sector reached 29.7 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a 29% year-on-year increase, with an overseas revenue share of 11.64% [23][25] - The gaming sector's overseas revenue reached 21.8 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, growing by 30% year-on-year, with an overseas revenue share of 40.08% [26][29] 2. Focus on Gaming, Short Dramas, and Social Media - The gaming industry is expected to maintain its strong competitive edge, with innovations driving the expansion of overseas revenue [4][41] - The report indicates that the overseas short drama market is experiencing rapid growth, with a projected revenue of 2.38 billion USD in 2025, reflecting a 263% year-on-year increase [4][41] - The social media market is also evolving, with AI technologies enhancing user engagement and creating new monetization opportunities [4][41] 3. Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Perfect World, Xindong Company, and Tencent Holdings, which are expected to benefit from the growth in overseas gaming revenue [4][41] - Beneficiary stocks in the short drama sector include Kuaishou-W and Reading Group, while MiniMax-WP and Kunlun Wanwei are highlighted in the social media space [4][41]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the internet media industry, with a focus on AI cloud and gaming sectors, suggesting an "Overweight" rating for the industry [1]. Core Insights - The report forecasts that several key companies will experience significant growth in 2025, with expected revenue growth rates exceeding 50% for companies like G-bits, DMG Entertainment, Meitu, and others [1]. - The gaming sector is expected to see a slowdown in mobile game growth due to a higher domestic base, while PC games and overseas markets show promising growth [1]. - The cloud computing and AI model sectors are highlighted as having strong growth potential, driven by increasing demand for AI applications and improvements in domestic models [1]. Summary by Sections Company Performance Forecasts - Companies expected to achieve over 50% revenue growth in 2025 include G-bits, DMG Entertainment, Meitu, Maoyan Entertainment, Xindong Company, Pop Mart, Light Media, and Century Huatong [1]. - Companies with a growth forecast between 20-50% include Kaiying Network, 37 Interactive Entertainment, and Giant Network [1]. - Tencent Holdings and Kuaishou are projected to have growth rates between 0-20%, while companies like Focus Media and Shenzhou Taiyue are expected to see declines [1][2]. Gaming Sector Insights - The domestic mobile game market is projected to grow at a rate of 7.92% in 2025, while PC games are expected to grow by 14.97% [1]. - Self-developed games in overseas markets are forecasted to grow by 10.23% [1]. - The report emphasizes the importance of evergreen games and casual game breakthroughs in overseas markets for 2026 [1]. Cloud Computing and AI Models - The cloud infrastructure service market in mainland China is expected to reach $13.4 billion by Q3 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 24% [1]. - The report notes a 16-fold increase in the usage of public cloud AI models in China, exceeding 20 trillion calls [1]. - The demand for AI applications is expected to drive further growth in the AI cloud and computing sectors, with significant increases in token usage for domestic models [1]. Investment Targets - Recommended investment targets include Tencent Holdings, Kingsoft Cloud, Alibaba, Baidu for AI cloud and models; Xindong Company, Giant Network, Century Huatong for gaming; Pop Mart for trendy toys; Bilibili and Kuaishou for UGC video; and Wenwen Group, Fubo Group, Mango Super Media for IP and copyright services [1].