行 业 及 产 业 传媒/ 游戏Ⅱ 2026 年 03 月 15 日 中国"苹果税"海外"谷歌税"下 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 林起贤 A0230519060002 linqx@swsresearch.com 袁伟嘉 A0230519080013 yuanwj@swsresearch.com 夏嘉励 A0230522090001 xiajl@swsresearch.com 赵航 A0230522100002 zhaohang@swsresearch.com 研究支持 张淇元 A0230124080001 zhangqy@swsresearch.com 联系人 张淇元 A0230124080001 zhangqy@swsresearch.com 看好 ——游戏行业点评 20260315 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 降，内容议价力提升 - ⚫ 26 年 3 月 13 日苹果宣布自 3 月 15 日起，中国 ...

证券研究报告 传媒 渠道分成比例降低，助力游戏板块利 润率提升 华泰研究 2026 年 3 月 15 日│中国内地 动态点评 据苹果官网宣布，自 3 月 15 日起，中国内地（大陆）App Store 的内购及 付费 App 的佣金率将由 30%降低为 25%，同时，小型企业项目、小程序合 作伙伴开发者，应用内购和自动订阅续费满一年后的优惠费率，同步从 15% 下调至 12%。我们认为，苹果端分成比例的下调，将直接带动游戏厂商利 润率提升，渠道降费与开放为行业大趋势，利好游戏产业健康持续发展。 渠道分成比例下降，有望直接带动游戏公司利润率提升 1）此前，3 月 4 日，谷歌宣布 Google Play 商店的抽成将从 30%降至 20%， 并正式开放第三方支付与第三方应用商店。新的抽成政策即将在全球分批次 推出，至 2027 年 9 月 30 日前在全球正式实行。我们认为，谷歌和苹果通 过占据应用商店的垄断地位，长期收取高额的渠道流水分成，对应用开发者 生态繁荣发展及相关的反垄断监管都存在不利影响，"平台税"由单一抽成 过渡至分层费率、整体费率下调、全球化渠道开放为长期大趋势。 2）基于中国内地（大陆）由 3 ...

Xml [Table_Page] 投资策略周报|传媒 证券研究报告 | [Table_Title] 互联网传媒行业 | | | [Table_Gr ade] 行业评级 | 买入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 前次评级 | 买入 | | 苹果 | App Store | 下调佣金费率，腾讯推出"龙虾全家桶" | 报告日期 | 2026-03-15 | [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 投资建议。互联网板块：（1）电商：临近阿里业绩发布，我们认为市 场对云增速无争议，且阿里云针对openclaw推出了轻量云服务器，配 置一键部署模板和IM 接入教程，预计对token调用量以及其MaaS收 入都将带来提振。（2）社交娱乐媒体：主业保持强韧增长势头，看好 腾讯持续释放微信场景的商业化潜力，哔哩哔哩广告增速有望持续领 跑互联网广告大盘。（3）互联网医疗：京东健康、阿里健康发挥头部 平台优势，与上游尤其是原研药厂商加深合作，收入及利润增长表现 持续强劲。（4）短视频：可灵的商业化空间正受益于技术的提升，26 年资本投入或持续加大。（5）潮玩+IP赛道：泡 ...

Core Viewpoint - Apple's recent decision to lower its commission rates in China is beneficial for local game developers and companies offering subscription services through apps [1] Group 1: Commission Rate Changes - Starting from Sunday, Apple will reduce its commission rate for in-app purchases and paid app transactions in China from 30% to 25% [1] - This change is expected to increase the gross margins for Chinese gaming companies, particularly Tencent, NetEase, and Century Huatong [1] Group 2: Impact on Competitors - Analysts suggest that this move may pressure Android app stores in China to also lower their commission rates, which currently stand at around 50% for most new games [1] - Although some fees have slightly decreased in recent years through case-by-case negotiations, the overall high commission rates remain a concern for developers [1]

招商证券股份有限公司研究员顾佳、谢笑妍2月2日发布研报《世纪华通(002602)：全球手游龙头 25年利润大幅增长 海内外产品多点开花》称，维持"强烈推荐"投资评级。 世纪华通2月3日收报20.38元，之后一个月股价连续下跌。 中国经济网北京3月12日讯 世纪华通(002602.SZ)今日收盘报16.93元，下跌2.03%。世纪华通连续 第4个交易日收阴线。 (责任编辑：徐自立) ...

招商证券股份有限公司研究员顾佳、谢笑妍2月2日发布研报《世纪华通：全球手游龙头25年利润大幅增 长海内外产品多点开花》称，维持"强烈推荐"投资评级。 世纪华通2月3日收报20.38元，之后一个月股价连续下跌。 中国经济网北京3月11日讯世纪华通（002602）(002602.SZ)今日收盘报17.28元，下跌2.54%。 ...

[Table_Main] 行业研究|可选消费|媒体Ⅱ 证券研究报告 媒体Ⅱ行业周报、月报 2026 年 03 月 10 日 [Table_Title] OpenClaw 持续火爆， Google Play 下调分成比 ——传媒互联网行业周报 [Table_Summary] 报告要点： 市场表现 2026.3.2-2026.3.8，传媒行业（申万）-6.97%，同期沪深 300 -1.07%， 上证指数-0.93%，深证成指-2.22%，创业板指-2.45%，恒生科技指数 -3.67%。游戏/电视广播/影视院线/广告营销/数字媒体/出版，分别- 6.04%/-7.38%/-8.01%/-8.01%/-8.24%/-5.77%。 行业重点数据及动态更新 （1）AI 应用：本周（2026.3.2-2026.3.8） OpenRouter 平台 token 调用量为 14.8T，环比+8.82%，其中阶跃星辰 Step 3.5 Flash 新进入 Top5。本周 Deepseek/豆包/腾讯元宝/千问七麦数据预估 IOS 端下载 量分别为 28.99/209.47/69.77/164.49 万次，环比分别+13.18 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the media industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the significant growth potential in AI applications and gaming, driven by advancements in large models and favorable policy changes, such as Google's reduced revenue share for app stores, which is expected to enhance profit margins for domestic gaming companies [4][30] - OpenClaw, an AI assistant platform, has gained immense popularity, topping GitHub's software star ranking, indicating a strong demand for AI tools that enhance user productivity [3][31] - The gaming sector is poised for growth with the upcoming launch of high-potential titles like "异环" (Yihuan), which has already garnered significant pre-registration interest [4][21] Industry Overview - The media industry is experiencing a shift with AI technology accelerating commercialization, particularly in content generation and gaming [30] - The gaming sector has shown resilience, with notable titles like "王者荣耀" (Honor of Kings) leading the iOS sales charts, indicating strong consumer engagement [11][16] - The film industry is also performing well, with "飞驰人生 3" (Fast and Furious 3) achieving the highest box office revenue for the week [25] Key Company Recommendations - For AI applications, recommended companies include Tencent Holdings and Kuaishou, with beneficiaries like Alibaba and Kunlun Wanwei [3] - In the gaming sector, key recommendations include Perfect World, Kying Network, and Xindong Company, with beneficiaries such as Century Huatong and 37 Interactive Entertainment [4] - For cloud computing, Shunwang Technology is highlighted as a key player, with beneficiaries including Zhejiang Shuju Culture [3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating a positive outlook for the sector compared to the overall market performance [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the narrative around AI disruption has not yet shown financial evidence, primarily reflecting valuation changes. The optimism surrounding AI-native companies and hardware-heavy assets is balanced by concerns over profitability in traditional software and internet sectors [2]. - Domestic internet companies are viewed as having low starting valuations, with user stickiness, ecosystem, and data value being crucial for competing in the AI era. However, the market does not currently reflect optimistic expectations [2]. - The upcoming March earnings reports are expected to shift focus towards profitability, and the resumption of share buybacks post-silent period may boost market confidence [2]. - Bilibili's advertising business is anticipated to benefit from increased demand driven by AI applications, although there are concerns that AI investments may lower profitability. Nonetheless, AI advertising and video content are expected to enhance the value of user-generated content (UGC) communities [2]. - Alibaba's commitment to an open-source strategy for Qwen has alleviated recent concerns stemming from personnel changes [2]. Summary by Sections AI and Software Market - The North American software index has rebounded by 14% since February 23, while the Hong Kong internet sector saw a 4% rebound last week. The balance between optimism for AI and pessimism regarding traditional software disruption risks is noted [2]. - The report emphasizes that the current AI disruption narrative lacks financial backing, primarily reflecting changes in valuation rather than actual performance [2]. Domestic Internet Companies - Domestic internet firms are characterized by low initial valuations, with user engagement and data value being critical for success in the AI landscape. The market's expectations remain subdued [2]. Earnings Reports and Market Confidence - The March earnings reports are expected to become the focal point for trading, with the potential for share buybacks to restore market confidence following the silent period [2]. Advertising and AI Applications - Bilibili's advertising sector is projected to benefit from AI-driven demand, although concerns persist regarding the impact of AI investments on profitability. The report suggests that AI-driven advertising and video content could significantly enhance UGC community value [2]. Key Companies and Valuations - The report includes a valuation table for key companies, indicating their market capitalization, revenue, and profit forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026. For instance, Tencent Holdings has a market cap of 41,710 million RMB with projected revenues of 6,603 million RMB for 2024 and 7,556 million RMB for 2025, reflecting a 14% year-over-year growth [4].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the implications of Google Play's fee structure adjustment on the mobile gaming industry, particularly focusing on Chinese game companies with overseas exposure [1][2]. Core Insights - **Google Play's Policy Overhaul**: Google Play is restructuring its in-app purchase (IAP) service fees, reducing the standard 30% fee to a 20% fee for new installs and a 5% optional billing fee. This change is expected to improve gross profit margins (GPM) for game companies, depending on their domestic and overseas market mix [1][4]. - **Encouragement for Overseas Expansion**: The new fee structure may incentivize more game studios to explore international markets, benefiting companies like Tencent, NetEase, and Century Huatong, especially those with significant overseas revenue [1][8]. - **Competitive Landscape**: Other app stores may follow Google's lead to remain competitive, creating a favorable environment for game developers and publishers, particularly in the online gaming sector [1]. Company-Specific Insights - **Tencent Holdings**: In Q3 2025, Tencent's overseas game revenues reached RMB 20.8 billion, accounting for 33% of online game revenues. The fee overhaul is expected to enhance GPM for Tencent's value-added services (VAS) and could lead to higher equity value from Epic Games if its store is registered on Google Play [8][13]. - **NetEase**: Currently, less than 10% of NetEase's game revenues come from overseas, suggesting a smaller impact on GPM from the fee changes compared to Tencent [8][11]. - **Century Huatong**: In H1 2025, Century Huatong's overseas revenues made up 52% of its total, primarily from its mobile game portfolio. The company plans to allocate its budget towards traffic acquisition and content updates to enhance product lifecycle and return on investment [8][9]. Valuation Insights - **Century Huatong**: Target price set at RMB 24.0 based on a 20x PE ratio for 2026 estimates, reflecting its position as the third-largest online game company in China [9]. - **NetEase**: Target price of US$165 based on a sum-of-the-parts valuation, with online gaming valued at a P/E of 15x and a net margin assumption of 41% [11]. - **Tencent Holdings**: Target price of HK$783 based on a sum-of-the-parts approach, with various segments valued at different P/E ratios [13]. Risks - **Century Huatong**: Risks include delayed launches of significant game titles and a potential slowdown in the auto parts business [10]. - **NetEase**: Risks involve unexpected slowdowns in core titles and declines in rankings for key mobile games [12]. - **Tencent Holdings**: Risks include revenue slowdowns in core PC games, unsuccessful mobile game launches, and changes in the regulatory environment [14]. Additional Considerations - The changes in Google Play's fee structure are seen as a significant milestone that could reshape the mobile gaming landscape, particularly for Chinese companies looking to expand internationally [1][2]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the implications for the mobile gaming industry and specific companies involved.