[Table_Main] 行业研究|可选消费|媒体Ⅱ 证券研究报告 媒体Ⅱ行业周报、月报 2026 年 03 月 10 日 [Table_Title] OpenClaw 持续火爆， Google Play 下调分成比 ——传媒互联网行业周报 [Table_Summary] 报告要点： 市场表现 2026.3.2-2026.3.8，传媒行业（申万）-6.97%，同期沪深 300 -1.07%， 上证指数-0.93%，深证成指-2.22%，创业板指-2.45%，恒生科技指数 -3.67%。游戏/电视广播/影视院线/广告营销/数字媒体/出版，分别- 6.04%/-7.38%/-8.01%/-8.01%/-8.24%/-5.77%。 行业重点数据及动态更新 （1）AI 应用：本周（2026.3.2-2026.3.8） OpenRouter 平台 token 调用量为 14.8T，环比+8.82%，其中阶跃星辰 Step 3.5 Flash 新进入 Top5。本周 Deepseek/豆包/腾讯元宝/千问七麦数据预估 IOS 端下载 量分别为 28.99/209.47/69.77/164.49 万次，环比分别+13.18 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the media industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the significant growth potential in AI applications and gaming, driven by advancements in large models and favorable policy changes, such as Google's reduced revenue share for app stores, which is expected to enhance profit margins for domestic gaming companies [4][30] - OpenClaw, an AI assistant platform, has gained immense popularity, topping GitHub's software star ranking, indicating a strong demand for AI tools that enhance user productivity [3][31] - The gaming sector is poised for growth with the upcoming launch of high-potential titles like "异环" (Yihuan), which has already garnered significant pre-registration interest [4][21] Industry Overview - The media industry is experiencing a shift with AI technology accelerating commercialization, particularly in content generation and gaming [30] - The gaming sector has shown resilience, with notable titles like "王者荣耀" (Honor of Kings) leading the iOS sales charts, indicating strong consumer engagement [11][16] - The film industry is also performing well, with "飞驰人生 3" (Fast and Furious 3) achieving the highest box office revenue for the week [25] Key Company Recommendations - For AI applications, recommended companies include Tencent Holdings and Kuaishou, with beneficiaries like Alibaba and Kunlun Wanwei [3] - In the gaming sector, key recommendations include Perfect World, Kying Network, and Xindong Company, with beneficiaries such as Century Huatong and 37 Interactive Entertainment [4] - For cloud computing, Shunwang Technology is highlighted as a key player, with beneficiaries including Zhejiang Shuju Culture [3]

业 及 产 业 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 linqx@swsresearch.com 2026 年 03 月 08 日 Token 出海，谷歌渠道分成下降利 好游戏 CP 看好 ——互联网传媒周报 20260302-20260306 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 林起贤 A0230519060002 linqx@swsresearch.com 袁伟嘉 A0230519080013 yuanwj@swsresearch.com 任梦妮 A0230521100005 renmn@swsresearch.com 夏嘉励 A0230522090001 xiajl@swsresearch.com 赵航 A0230522100002 zhaohang@swsresearch.com 黄俊儒 A0230525070008 huangjr@swsresearch.com 研究支持 张淇元 A0230124080001 zhangqy@swsresearch.com 联系人 林起贤 A0230519060002 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博 ...

We believe Google Play's policy overhaul could suggest an important milestone for mobile platform fee structure, which likely benefits Chinese game companies with greater overseas mobile publishing exposure and might encourage more studios to explore overseas opportunities. As Google Play will break down 30% standard IAP service fee into 20% service fee for new installs or under specific incentive program and 5% optional billing fee charged by Google billing system, this might bring gradual GPM improvement ...

游戏板块如何布局？20260305 摘要 费，但并非必然支付给谷歌，若选择引导用户至官网支付或采用非 Google Play Billing 方式，该 5%可减免。理论上若实现 100%"切支付"（不通过 Google Play Billing 收款），仅需向谷歌支付 15%~20%的服务费，相当于 由 30%大幅降至 15%~20%。该政策将从 2026 年起逐步在全球落地，节奏 为先欧洲、后美国、再日韩，直至 2027 年 9 月在全球完成落地。 渠道反垄断 进程已持续五六年：起点为 2020 年 Epic Games（《堡垒之夜》开发商）对 苹果与谷歌发起反垄断诉讼。此后 App Store 与 Google Play 在美国、欧洲、 日韩及国内等地区持续面临政府或企业端的诉讼与审查，焦点集中在向游戏公 司收取 30%费用的苛刻性。在监管与诉讼压力下，2020 年至今两大渠道持续 向开发者让利、放松限制并下调费率。当前苹果允许外链或第三方支付，费率 因地区诉讼进展差异呈 case by case，部分地区降至 10%~20%，部分地区 仍在 26%~27%，总体较 30%有所下降；谷歌则如上所述降至 1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the media industry [1] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the acceleration of content going overseas, driven by policy support and AI empowerment, with a focus on high-quality content and upgraded distribution models [3][12] - The overseas revenue share for the media sector is projected to increase from 5.7% in 2019 to 10.4% by 2024, with the gaming sector's share rising from 26.6% to 38.5% during the same period [3][12] - The report highlights the significant growth in overseas revenue for short dramas, which is expected to see a year-on-year increase of 263% in 2025 [3][12] Summary by Sections 1. Policy Support and AI Empowerment - The global digital content market is expanding, with the Chinese content industry actively pursuing overseas opportunities, particularly in gaming and short dramas [3][12] - The report notes that the overseas revenue for the media sector reached 29.7 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a 29% year-on-year increase, with an overseas revenue share of 11.64% [23][25] - The gaming sector's overseas revenue reached 21.8 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, growing by 30% year-on-year, with an overseas revenue share of 40.08% [26][29] 2. Focus on Gaming, Short Dramas, and Social Media - The gaming industry is expected to maintain its strong competitive edge, with innovations driving the expansion of overseas revenue [4][41] - The report indicates that the overseas short drama market is experiencing rapid growth, with a projected revenue of 2.38 billion USD in 2025, reflecting a 263% year-on-year increase [4][41] - The social media market is also evolving, with AI technologies enhancing user engagement and creating new monetization opportunities [4][41] 3. Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Perfect World, Xindong Company, and Tencent Holdings, which are expected to benefit from the growth in overseas gaming revenue [4][41] - Beneficiary stocks in the short drama sector include Kuaishou-W and Reading Group, while MiniMax-WP and Kunlun Wanwei are highlighted in the social media space [4][41]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the internet media industry, with a focus on AI cloud and gaming sectors, suggesting an "Overweight" rating for the industry [1]. Core Insights - The report forecasts that several key companies will experience significant growth in 2025, with expected revenue growth rates exceeding 50% for companies like G-bits, DMG Entertainment, Meitu, and others [1]. - The gaming sector is expected to see a slowdown in mobile game growth due to a higher domestic base, while PC games and overseas markets show promising growth [1]. - The cloud computing and AI model sectors are highlighted as having strong growth potential, driven by increasing demand for AI applications and improvements in domestic models [1]. Summary by Sections Company Performance Forecasts - Companies expected to achieve over 50% revenue growth in 2025 include G-bits, DMG Entertainment, Meitu, Maoyan Entertainment, Xindong Company, Pop Mart, Light Media, and Century Huatong [1]. - Companies with a growth forecast between 20-50% include Kaiying Network, 37 Interactive Entertainment, and Giant Network [1]. - Tencent Holdings and Kuaishou are projected to have growth rates between 0-20%, while companies like Focus Media and Shenzhou Taiyue are expected to see declines [1][2]. Gaming Sector Insights - The domestic mobile game market is projected to grow at a rate of 7.92% in 2025, while PC games are expected to grow by 14.97% [1]. - Self-developed games in overseas markets are forecasted to grow by 10.23% [1]. - The report emphasizes the importance of evergreen games and casual game breakthroughs in overseas markets for 2026 [1]. Cloud Computing and AI Models - The cloud infrastructure service market in mainland China is expected to reach $13.4 billion by Q3 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 24% [1]. - The report notes a 16-fold increase in the usage of public cloud AI models in China, exceeding 20 trillion calls [1]. - The demand for AI applications is expected to drive further growth in the AI cloud and computing sectors, with significant increases in token usage for domestic models [1]. Investment Targets - Recommended investment targets include Tencent Holdings, Kingsoft Cloud, Alibaba, Baidu for AI cloud and models; Xindong Company, Giant Network, Century Huatong for gaming; Pop Mart for trendy toys; Bilibili and Kuaishou for UGC video; and Wenwen Group, Fubo Group, Mango Super Media for IP and copyright services [1].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for the internet media sector [2]. Core Insights - The report forecasts significant growth for key companies in 2025, with expected year-on-year growth rates exceeding 50% for companies such as Gigabit, DMG Entertainment, Meitu, Maoyan Entertainment, Xindong Company, Pop Mart, Light Media, and Century Huatong [2]. - The gaming sector is expected to see a slowdown in mobile game growth due to a higher domestic base, while PC games and overseas markets show promising growth. The report anticipates a 7.92% year-on-year growth for mobile games in 2025, and a 14.97% growth for PC games [2]. - In cloud computing and large models, the report highlights a significant increase in demand driven by AI, with the Chinese cloud infrastructure service market projected to reach $13.4 billion by Q3 2025, reflecting a 24% year-on-year growth [2]. - The report identifies key companies to watch, including Tencent, Kingsoft Cloud, Alibaba, Baidu, Minimax in AI cloud and large models; Xindong Company, Giant Network, Century Huatong, and others in gaming; and Bilibili and Kuaishou in UGC video [2]. Summary by Sections Company Performance Forecasts - Companies expected to achieve over 50% growth in 2025 include: Gigabit (89%), DMG Entertainment (257%), Meitu (61%), Maoyan Entertainment (110%), Xindong Company (67%), Pop Mart (324%), Light Media (494%) [3]. - Companies with 20-50% growth include: Kaiying Network (29%), 37 Interactive Entertainment (20%), Giant Network (49%) [3]. - Tencent is projected to have a profit of 260.25 billion with a 17% growth, while Kuaishou is expected to grow by 14% [3]. Gaming Sector Insights - The domestic mobile game market is projected to grow by 7.92% in 2025, while PC games are expected to grow by 14.97% [2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of evergreen games and overseas casual game breakthroughs in 2026 [2]. Cloud Computing and AI Models - The report notes a significant increase in the usage of public cloud large models, with a projected 16-fold increase in usage by 2025 [2]. - The report highlights the competitive advantage of domestic models in terms of cost-performance ratio, which is expected to drive further growth in the AI cloud sector [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the media and internet industry, including Giant Network, Perfect World, and Kuaishou, among others [4][32]. Core Insights - The media industry experienced a decline of 5.10% from February 23 to March 1, 2026, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.98% during the same period [1][11]. - Key sectors within the media industry, such as gaming, film, and advertising, showed varied performance, with the film sector declining by 16.82% [1][11]. - The report highlights significant developments in AI applications, including the launch of new models by Google and the introduction of the SkyReels V4 model by Kunlun Wanwei, which supports multimodal video generation [2][30]. Market Performance - The media industry (Shenwan) saw a decline of 5.10% from February 23 to March 1, 2026, compared to a rise in the Shanghai Composite Index of 1.98% [1][11]. - The breakdown of performance in sub-sectors includes gaming at -3.41%, film at -16.82%, and advertising at -3.43% [1][11]. Industry Key Data AI Applications - The OpenRouter platform recorded a weekly token call volume of 13.6 trillion, with significant contributions from Chinese models [2][16]. - Notable AI events include the release of Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro and the launch of the SkyReels V4 model by Kunlun Wanwei [2][30]. Gaming - The top five mobile games on iOS in China as of February 28, 2026, include "Honor of Kings" and "Peacekeeper Elite" [3][19]. - A total of 146 domestic games and 6 imported games received approval in the latest batch of game licenses [21]. Film - The total box office for domestic films reached 2.386 billion yuan during the week of February 23 to March 1, 2026, with "Flying Life 3" leading the box office [26][29]. - Upcoming films include 10 new releases scheduled for the week of March 2 to March 8, 2026 [26]. Investment Recommendations - The report expresses optimism about themes such as AI applications and cultural exports, recommending a focus on gaming, IP, short dramas, marketing, and publishing sectors [4][32].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a neutral investment rating to the media and internet industry, indicating a relative performance range of -10% to +10% compared to the benchmark index [35]. Core Insights - The media index experienced a decline of 5.1% from February 24 to February 27, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 7.1%. The total transaction volume was 336.7 billion yuan, which represents a decrease compared to the previous period [6][7]. - All sub-sectors within the media industry saw declines, with notable performances from individual stocks such as CITIC Publishing, which rose by 38%, and Bona Film Group, which fell by 29% [16]. - The report attributes the market movements to profit-taking ahead of the Spring Festival, AI applications, and high-frequency gaming data [16]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The media index's performance ranked last among 28 primary industry indices, with a transaction volume of 336.7 billion yuan, accounting for 3.4% of the total A-share market [7][16]. - Sub-sectors such as film and television, digital media, and advertising all experienced significant declines, while broadcasting and publishing showed some resilience [16]. AI Sector - The upcoming launch of Deepseek V4 is anticipated to enhance productivity in AI applications, particularly in the entertainment sector. The report highlights the potential for accelerated token consumption and international narratives [19]. - Key companies to watch in the AI space include Alibaba, Zhiyuan, Minimax, and Kunlun Wanwei, with application-focused firms like Zhejiang Shuju, Shanghai Film, and Aofei Entertainment also recommended [19]. Gaming Sector - The report expresses optimism regarding major gaming titles and a high level of activity in Q1. Recommended stocks include Perfect World, Kaiying Network, and Century Huatong for A-shares, and Tencent Holdings and Xindong Company for H-shares [19]. IP and Internet - The report forecasts a favorable commercial landscape for IP in the AI era, suggesting a focus on companies like Shanghai Film and Aofei Entertainment [19]. - The internet sector is influenced by geopolitical factors and a shift towards more stable hardware investments, with a focus on AI and consumer sectors. Companies like Tencent, Alibaba, and Meituan are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [19].