世纪华通2月3日收报20.38元，之后一个月股价震荡下跌。 (责任编辑：徐自立) 招商证券股份有限公司研究员顾佳、谢笑妍2月2日发布研报《世纪华通(002602)：全球手游龙头 25年利润大幅增长 海内外产品多点开花》称，维持"强烈推荐"投资评级。 中国经济网北京3月20日讯 世纪华通(002602.SZ)今日收盘报16.18元，下跌2.82%。 ...

证券研究报告：传媒|点评报告 发布时间：2026-03-18 行业投资评级 强于大市|维持 | 行业基本情况 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘点位 | | 825.13 | | 52 | 周最高 | 1021.75 | | 52 | 周最低 | 591.71 | 行业相对指数表现（相对值） -19% -13% -7% -1% 5% 11% 17% 23% 29% 35% 41% 2025-03 2025-05 2025-08 2025-10 2026-01 2026-03 传媒 沪深300 优质出海游戏厂商迎来重大利好，有望提升利润率同时取得更大 经营自主权。得益于成熟期产品的稳定表现和新产品的成功推出，我 国自研游戏出海收入维持稳健增长。根据游戏工委，2025 年中国自研 游戏海外市场收入规模达到 204.55 亿美元，规模已连续六年超千亿 元人民币。此次谷歌下调抽佣比例，我们认为对出海游戏厂商将带来 以下变化。1）IAP 抽成压力下降，开发者利润率提升有望活跃游戏供 给市场。在传统 Google Play 模式下，大量游戏 IAP 收入需要承担约 30%的渠道分成。新政策实施后 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the media and internet industry [4] Core Insights - The media industry experienced a decline of 3.23% from March 9 to March 15, 2026, while the Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.70% and the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.76% [12] - Key sectors such as gaming, television broadcasting, film, advertising, digital media, and publishing saw respective declines of 3.45%, 1.70%, 4.18%, 3.83%, 3.36%, and 0.78% [12] - The report highlights significant developments in AI applications, gaming, and film sectors, indicating potential growth areas [8][36] Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The media industry (Shenwan) declined by 3.23% during the week of March 9-15, 2026, compared to a 0.19% increase in the CSI 300 index [12] - The gaming sector specifically saw a decline of 3.45% [12] 2. Key Industry Data 2.1 AI Applications - OpenRouter platform token call volume reached 16.9 trillion, up 14.19% week-on-week, with domestic models dominating the top five [18] - Notable downloads for AI applications on iOS included Deepseek at 31.13 million, with a week-on-week increase of 7.39% [18] 2.2 Gaming - Apple reduced the commission rate for in-app purchases in China from 30% to 25%, and for eligible small businesses from 15% to 12% [3] - The top five mobile games on iOS in China as of March 14, 2026, were "Honor of Kings," "Peacekeeper Elite," "Fearless Contract: Source Action," "Delta Action," and "Endless Winter" [22] - The overseas revenue for Chinese mobile games in February saw a significant increase of 221% [25] 2.3 Film - Domestic box office revenue for the week of March 9-15 was 372 million yuan, with 13 films set to release the following week [31] - The top film was "Racing Life 3," grossing 128.99 million yuan, accounting for 34.60% of the total box office [34] 3. Industry Key Events and Announcements - Tencent's AI assistant "WorkBuddy" was officially launched on March 9, 2026, enhancing productivity tools [35] - Nvidia introduced the Nemotron 3 Super AI model, featuring 120 billion parameters, significantly boosting throughput [35] - Baidu launched a zero-deployment service called DuClaw, facilitating easier access to AI tools [35] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report expresses optimism towards AI applications and cultural exports, recommending focus on gaming, IP, short dramas, marketing, and publishing sectors [36] - Specific companies highlighted for potential investment include Giant Network, Perfect World, and Mango Super Media among others [36]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [7] Core Insights - Multiple favorable policies have been released, leading to record high operational data for several games in February [1] - Apple and Google have reduced their app store commission rates, emphasizing the importance of content over distribution channels [1][2] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" explicitly mentions the development of online games, indicating a supportive regulatory environment for the industry [3] Company Summaries - **Kongzhong Network**: The company is actively repurchasing shares, with significant insider buying planned, indicating confidence in future performance [4] - **Giant Network**: The core product "Supernatural Action Team" has seen explosive growth, with a 43% increase in monthly revenue and over 10 million daily active users in February [4] - **Century Huatong**: The company is driven by both domestic and international business, with its game "Whiteout Survival" nearing $4.3 billion in cumulative global revenue [5] - **Tanwan**: The company expects a net profit of no less than 1.5 billion yuan in 2025, a 34-fold increase from 2024, driven by financial gains from Century Huatong shares and successful game launches [6] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that after previous adjustments, several key gaming companies have attractive valuation levels. It continues to recommend Perfect World and highlights companies such as Kongzhong Network, Giant Network, Century Huatong, and others for further attention [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the gaming industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [2]. Core Insights - Apple's recent reduction of the standard commission rate from 30% to 25% is expected to save game developers approximately 4.5 billion RMB annually, enhancing profits and potentially increasing investment in R&D and marketing [2]. - Google's phased reform of its service fees, reducing the standard IAP cut from 30% to 20% and subscription fees from 15% to 10%, is favorable for Chinese game developers looking to expand internationally [2]. - The trend of decreasing app store commission rates and the opening of third-party payment systems are reshaping the gaming industry, with major developers gaining more bargaining power [2][3]. Summary by Sections Apple Developer Fee Policy - The standard fee rate in mainland China is now 25%, down from 30%, with a commitment to not exceed rates in other regions [3]. - Small developers benefit from a reduced rate of 12%, down from 15% [3]. - Third-party payment systems remain closed in China, unlike in the EU and Japan, where they are allowed [3]. Google Play Developer Fee Policy - The standard IAP fee is now 20%, with new user incentives lowering it to 15% [4]. - Subscription services see a reduction in fees to 10% [4]. - Developers are allowed to promote third-party payment methods freely, marking a significant shift in policy [4]. Company Valuation Table - Tencent Holdings has a market cap of 43,956 million RMB, with projected revenues increasing from 6,603 million RMB in 2024 to 8,488 million RMB in 2026 [5]. - Other notable companies include Giant Network with a market cap of 673 million RMB and projected revenue growth of 81% from 2024 to 2026 [5]. - Bilibili is projected to have a revenue increase of 13% from 2025 to 2026, with a market cap of 732 million RMB [5].

证券研究报告 传媒 渠道分成比例降低，助力游戏板块利 润率提升 华泰研究 2026 年 3 月 15 日│中国内地 动态点评 据苹果官网宣布，自 3 月 15 日起，中国内地（大陆）App Store 的内购及 付费 App 的佣金率将由 30%降低为 25%，同时，小型企业项目、小程序合 作伙伴开发者，应用内购和自动订阅续费满一年后的优惠费率，同步从 15% 下调至 12%。我们认为，苹果端分成比例的下调，将直接带动游戏厂商利 润率提升，渠道降费与开放为行业大趋势，利好游戏产业健康持续发展。 渠道分成比例下降，有望直接带动游戏公司利润率提升 1）此前，3 月 4 日，谷歌宣布 Google Play 商店的抽成将从 30%降至 20%， 并正式开放第三方支付与第三方应用商店。新的抽成政策即将在全球分批次 推出，至 2027 年 9 月 30 日前在全球正式实行。我们认为，谷歌和苹果通 过占据应用商店的垄断地位，长期收取高额的渠道流水分成，对应用开发者 生态繁荣发展及相关的反垄断监管都存在不利影响，"平台税"由单一抽成 过渡至分层费率、整体费率下调、全球化渠道开放为长期大趋势。 2）基于中国内地（大陆）由 3 ...

Core Insights - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the internet media sector, highlighting strong growth potential in various sub-sectors such as e-commerce, social entertainment media, internet healthcare, short videos, and IP-driven markets [4][3] - The report emphasizes the positive impact of Apple's commission rate reduction on gaming companies, which is expected to enhance industry profitability [14][15] - The AI sector is anticipated to experience significant growth, with a focus on self-developed models and vertical integration in cloud and ecosystem services [22][4] E-commerce - The report notes that Alibaba's cloud services are expected to boost token usage and MaaS revenue due to the launch of lightweight cloud servers [4][17] - Meituan's management emphasizes a focus on core local business and AI as a major variable for future growth, while maintaining a significant market share in instant retail [14][15] Social Entertainment Media - Tencent's WeChat is projected to continue its strong monetization potential, while Bilibili's advertising growth is expected to lead the internet advertising market [4][18] - Bilibili's advertising revenue is forecasted to accelerate to a 27% growth rate in Q4 2025, benefiting from e-commerce and AI applications [18][4] Internet Healthcare - JD Health and Alibaba Health are leveraging their platform advantages to deepen collaborations with upstream pharmaceutical manufacturers, resulting in strong revenue and profit growth [4][18] Short Videos - Kuaishou is expected to benefit from technological advancements, with continued capital investment anticipated in 2026 [4][19] IP and Trendy Toys - Pop Mart is actively releasing and promoting new IPs, with plans to enhance collaboration with overseas designers to penetrate international markets [4][19] Long Videos - The report indicates that membership and advertising revenues in the long video sector are stabilizing, with companies exploring new business opportunities [4][19] Music Streaming - The music streaming sector is experiencing healthy membership growth, with strategies in place to optimize ARPU [4][19] Gaming - The report remains optimistic about the gaming sector's performance, with recommendations for companies like Century Huatong and Giant Network, which have strong product pipelines and sustainable growth [20][4] - The gaming industry is expected to maintain its favorable outlook into 2026, driven by fundamental performance [20][4] Advertising - The report highlights significant increases in internet advertising investments, particularly for companies like Focus Media, which is expected to benefit from upcoming major events [20][4] AI - The report anticipates a new wave of value reassessment in AI, with a focus on high customer unit prices and increased penetration rates [22][4]

Core Viewpoint - Apple's recent decision to lower its commission rates in China is beneficial for local game developers and companies offering subscription services through apps [1] Group 1: Commission Rate Changes - Starting from Sunday, Apple will reduce its commission rate for in-app purchases and paid app transactions in China from 30% to 25% [1] - This change is expected to increase the gross margins for Chinese gaming companies, particularly Tencent, NetEase, and Century Huatong [1] Group 2: Impact on Competitors - Analysts suggest that this move may pressure Android app stores in China to also lower their commission rates, which currently stand at around 50% for most new games [1] - Although some fees have slightly decreased in recent years through case-by-case negotiations, the overall high commission rates remain a concern for developers [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that Century Huatong (002602.SZ) has experienced a decline in stock price, closing at 16.93 yuan, down 2.03%, marking the fourth consecutive trading day of negative performance [1] - According to a research report by China Merchants Securities on February 2, Century Huatong is recognized as a global leader in mobile gaming, with significant profit growth projected over the next 25 years and a diverse product portfolio both domestically and internationally [1] - Following a closing price of 20.38 yuan on February 3, the company's stock price has seen a continuous decline over the subsequent month [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that Century Huatong (002602.SZ) experienced a stock price decline of 2.54%, closing at 17.28 yuan on March 11 [1] - According to a research report by China Merchants Securities, analysts Gu Jia and Xie Xiaoyan maintained a "strongly recommended" investment rating for Century Huatong, citing significant profit growth over 25 years and diverse product performance both domestically and internationally [1] - Following a closing price of 20.38 yuan on February 3, Century Huatong's stock price has continuously declined over the subsequent month [1]