传媒 2026 年 03 月 02 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 方光照（分析师） fangguangzhao@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520030004 政策加码、AI 赋能，内容出海步伐加快 全球数字内容市场空间广阔，国产内容积极出海，其中游戏出海规模领先，短剧 出海收入高增。复盘网文、游戏、短剧出海历程，我们认为内容出海整体趋势为 内容精品化发展，分发逐步由委外代理转为自主控制，国内企业在做大出海市场 的同时，亦在提升产业链价值占比。我们以相关指数成分公司为主要样本，计算 得传媒板块 2019-2024 年境外收入占比由 5.7%提升至 10.4%，游戏板块由 26.6% 提升至 38.5%，影视制作板块由 10.7%提升至 24.6%。展望未来，我们认为博大 精深的中华文化为出海内容企业提供丰富"原料"，随文化交流加深，国内企业 或掌握更易于海外理解的内容呈现形式；叠加激励政策持续出台，以及 AI 技术 发展扩大优质内容供给，看好内容出海市场规模加速扩大。 数据来源：聚源 -17% 0% 17% 34% 50% 67% 2025-03 2025-07 2025-11 传媒 沪深 ...

把握更确定方向，再次推荐【完美世界】及游戏板块 20260302 摘要 AI 技术推动游戏行业发展，商业化提速，主要体现在广告、电商和社交 娱乐等领域的变现能力增强。游戏作为 AI 的重要应用方向，行业景气度 上升，部分公司估值回调后性价比提升。 在宏观环境不确定背景下，报告聚焦确定性强的方向，即具备爆款开发 能力或平台属性的游戏公司，重点关注完美世界及其潜在爆款游戏《异 环》，完美世界被列为 3 月金股。 复盘传媒与游戏投资历史，"买爆款"策略有效。例如，《哪吒 2》推 动光线传媒市值大幅上涨，《无尽冬日》助力世纪华通收入利润增长， 心动公司依靠《出发吧麦芬》等爆款产品市值大幅增长。 《异环》被视为 2026-2027 年最接近上限的潜在爆款，因其在都市题 材开放世界方向的创新性，玩法融合多种现实体验，商业模式兼顾公平 性与付费驱动，美术风格独特，且团队对玩家反馈响应迅速。 《异环》国服公测定档 4 月 23 日，早于市场预期，体现公司对三测结 果的信心。该时段新品竞争不激烈，与竞品周年庆错位，且紧邻五一假 期，有望与暑期旺季需求更好匹配。 Q&A "大 DAU 长青游戏"与平台型游戏公司的平台属性与渠道价 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The gaming industry is experiencing a marginal improvement in the policy environment, with an increase in the number of game approvals and a more relaxed approach to content and themes, laying a friendlier foundation for industry development [1][2][3] - The gaming sector's performance is showing a significant upward trend, particularly in 2025, which is expected to be the best year in the past decade, supported by a strong product cycle and sustainable growth into 2026 [1][3] Core Insights and Arguments - The user base for gaming in China has seen positive growth for three consecutive years, with a projected growth rate of 1.35% in 2025, indicating an upward trend [1][4] - Female-oriented games are one of the fastest-growing segments, with female players making up 48% of online gamers by mid-2025, contributing significantly to user growth [5] - The overseas gaming market remains robust, with actual growth rates of 13% in 2025 and over 20% in January 2026, indicating strong competitiveness of Chinese developers in the global market [1][6][7] Important but Overlooked Content - The application of AI in the gaming industry is evolving from a cost-reduction tool to enhancing the gaming experience, potentially reshaping valuation logic [2][9] - User-Generated Content (UGC) is fundamentally changing the gaming landscape, transforming games into dynamic platforms shaped by both players and developers, which could disrupt traditional business models [10] - The "Search, Shoot, Withdraw" gameplay has become a significant growth driver in the shooting genre, with shooting games becoming the second-largest category in the Chinese gaming market by 2025 [11] Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The gaming industry is expected to continue its growth trajectory, driven by user expansion, AI technology, and ongoing gameplay innovation [4][12] - The valuation of gaming companies is supported by a combination of technology, policy improvements, and sustained performance, with a focus on long-term product pipelines [13] - Recent adjustments in the gaming sector have seen valuations drop to around 15 times earnings, which is still below the perceived industry ceiling, suggesting continued investment opportunities [14]

Group 1: Solid-State Battery Industry - The global solid-state battery industry is expected to achieve GWh-level mass production by 2027, driven by collaborative innovation in materials, processes, and equipment [5][6][7] - The solid-state battery supply chain is evolving towards a "materials-equipment-manufacturing-application" collaborative innovation model, with key advancements in electrolyte film formation processes impacting ionic conductivity [6][7] - The global solid-state battery equipment market is projected to reach 120 billion yuan by 2026, with significant demand for new equipment such as dry electrode preparation and isostatic pressing [7][8] Group 2: AI Applications and Media Consumption - The 2026 Spring Festival has become a battleground for major AI companies to showcase their technological capabilities, integrating AI deeply into program production and real-time interactions [10][11] - The focus of domestic AI large models has shifted from general capabilities to native agent capabilities, emphasizing task planning and multi-modal technology breakthroughs [10][11] - The gaming sector during the Spring Festival saw a preference for high DAU games, particularly in the MOBA and FPS genres, with Tencent's games dominating the market [11][12] Group 3: Energy Sector and Coal Market - In 2025, the State Grid's total bidding amount reached 89.4 billion yuan, doubling that of 2022 and increasing by 27% compared to 2024, indicating strong growth in the energy sector [14][15] - The coal market experienced unexpected inventory reductions before the Spring Festival, leading to optimistic coal prices post-holiday, supported by favorable supply conditions [16] - The release of the national unified electricity market policy aims to establish a market-oriented mechanism centered on supply and demand, emphasizing sustainability [17][18] Group 4: New Consumption Trends - The 2026 Spring Festival saw a significant increase in travel and consumption, with cross-regional passenger flow expected to reach 9.5 billion, a 5.32% increase from 2025 [19][20] - The beauty sector showed signs of recovery during the off-peak season, with a notable increase in sales, particularly in the makeup category, driven by festive consumption [22][23] - The overall retail and catering sales during the Spring Festival increased by 8.6% compared to the previous year, reflecting a vibrant consumer market [21][22]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the gaming industry [5] Core Insights - The application of AI in the gaming industry is transitioning from B2B to B2C, with expectations for sustained capacity and traffic growth for evergreen games on the B2B side, while B2C games with high daily active users (DAU) are expected to see significant increases in both content and DAU through user co-creation driven by natural language AI game engines [3][12] - The report highlights the importance of companies with advantages in gaming channels and large DAU products, such as Tencent Holdings, Xindong Company, Century Huatong, Giant Network, and NetEase, as well as those with key project reserves like 37 Interactive Entertainment and Perfect World [3][12] Summary by Sections 1. AIGC and Policy Resonance Driving High Growth in Gaming Revenue - In 2025, China's gaming industry sales revenue is projected to reach 350.8 billion, with an 8% year-on-year growth, significantly outperforming the retail sector's 3.7% growth [15] - The AI-driven evergreen games are extending their lifecycle, with major titles like "Honor of Kings" and "Crossfire" achieving historical highs during the Spring Festival [15] 2. Trends in the Gaming Industry for 2026 - AI game editors are beginning to deliver results, with a long-term positive outlook for platform-based companies [29] - A price war is expected to restart in 2026, with low ARPU games showing stronger resilience against macroeconomic headwinds [38] - The revival of PC games is deepening, with an increasing proportion of cross-platform products [45] 3. Investment Recommendations - Companies with advantages in channels and large DAU products are highlighted, including Tencent Holdings, which is expected to see significant growth from its AI engine-driven games [60][61] - Other companies to watch include Xindong Company, Giant Network, and Kyeing Network, each with promising projects and growth potential [60][61]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the gaming industry [5] Core Insights - The application of AI in the gaming industry is transitioning from B2B to B2C, with expectations for sustained capacity and traffic growth for evergreen games on the B2B side, and significant content and DAU growth for large DAU games utilizing natural language AI game engines on the B2C side [3][12] - The report highlights the importance of companies with advantages in gaming channels and large DAU products, such as Tencent Holdings, Xindong Company, Century Huatong, Giant Network, and NetEase [3][12] - The report suggests focusing on companies with key project reserves this year, including 37 Interactive Entertainment and Perfect World [3][12] Summary by Sections 1. AIGC and Policy Resonance Driving High Growth in Gaming Industry Revenue - In 2025, China's gaming industry sales revenue is projected to reach 350.8 billion, with an 8% year-on-year growth, significantly outperforming the retail sales growth of 3.7% [15] - The AI-driven evergreen games are experiencing extended lifecycles, with historical highs achieved during the 2025 Q1 Spring Festival [15] 2. Trends in the Gaming Industry for 2026 - Trend 1: AI game editors are beginning to deliver results, with a long-term positive outlook for platform-based companies [29] - Trend 2: A price war is expected to restart in 2026, with low ARPU games showing stronger resilience against macroeconomic headwinds [38] - Trend 3: The revival of PC games is deepening, with an increasing share of cross-platform products [45] 3. Investment Recommendations - Companies with advantages in channels and large DAU products include Tencent Holdings, Xindong Company, Giant Network, and NetEase [12][60] - Companies with key project reserves to watch include 37 Interactive Entertainment and Perfect World [12][60]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rise of event-based live streaming, particularly focusing on Tim's survival live stream in extreme conditions, which has successfully broken through traditional media boundaries and engaged a wide audience across multiple platforms [5][6][10]. Group 1: Event-Based Live Streaming - Tim's recent survival live stream in sub-zero temperatures has achieved significant cross-platform engagement, indicating a shift in how content can reach broader audiences without relying on celebrity involvement or large budgets [6][8]. - The success of Tim's live stream parallels Netflix's live broadcast of Alex Honnold's free solo climb, suggesting that event-based live streaming can create "national buzz" more effectively than traditional variety shows [8][10]. - The integration of technology and audience interaction in Tim's live stream has redefined the viewing experience, making it more engaging and participatory compared to conventional formats [12][25]. Group 2: Innovation in Content Creation - The live stream utilized a unique set of rules involving AI and audience voting, transforming the survival challenge into a game-like experience that kept viewers emotionally invested [12][14]. - The presence of guest creators during the live stream mimicked the "flying guest" format seen in traditional variety shows, enhancing the communal viewing experience [14][16]. - The event's commercial aspect was highlighted by its promotion of a mobile game, demonstrating how live streaming can serve as a powerful marketing tool [18]. Group 3: Challenges and Future of Survival Content - Despite the success, there are concerns about viewer fatigue due to aggressive promotion strategies, indicating a potential downside to the event-based approach [18][19]. - The article suggests that survival-themed content resonates with modern audiences seeking an escape from structured urban life, but traditional survival shows often fail to capture this emotional appeal [21][23]. - Future survival content should focus on emotional engagement and innovative storytelling rather than merely extreme scenarios or celebrity involvement, aiming to fulfill the audience's desire for immersive experiences [26].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Century Huatong is expected to achieve significant revenue and profit growth in 2025, with a projected consolidated revenue of approximately 38 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of about 68% [2] - The estimated net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be between 5.55 billion yuan and 6.98 billion yuan, indicating a year-on-year growth range of 357% to 475% [2] - The company has achieved continuous revenue growth for 12 consecutive quarters and has doubled its net profit for two consecutive years, setting historical highs [2] Group 2 - In 2025, Century Huatong's overseas gaming business is expected to reach new heights, with its core product "Whiteout Survival" entering the global mobile game "billion-dollar revenue club" and ranking fourth in global mobile game revenue [3] - Another product, "Kingshot," has rapidly ascended to the 14th position in global mobile game revenue, marking a significant growth in the strategy game category [3] - The company aims to strengthen its position in the strategy game category while focusing on the casual game segment for new growth opportunities in 2026 [3] Group 3 - In response to the transformative impact of AI technology, Century Huatong's chairman has initiated a "full AI" call, establishing an AI development and management committee to enhance product development efficiency and operational precision [4] - The company has repurchased shares totaling over 1.3 billion yuan in the past two months, demonstrating confidence in its future development [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rise of Tim, the founder of Yingshi Pifeng, as a prominent figure in content creation and live streaming, particularly through his recent survival challenge that attracted significant online attention and engagement. Group 1: Live Streaming and Audience Engagement - Tim's recent survival challenge, sponsored by the game Endless Winter, garnered over 50,000 online viewers and lasted 100 hours in extreme cold conditions [1] - The challenge involved interactive elements where viewers could influence the outcome through AI-generated content and voting [1][3] - The event concluded with a strong fan interaction, showcasing Tim's ability to engage and retain a dedicated audience [4] Group 2: Personal Brand and Growth - Tim has evolved from a film student to a content creator with over 30 million followers across platforms, highlighting his rapid growth and influence in the digital space [4][5] - His content strategy focuses on emotional resonance and high engagement, which has led to significant viewership and interaction metrics [5][7] - Tim's personal brand is closely tied to his content, making him a central figure in the company's identity and marketing efforts [9][10] Group 3: Revenue Generation and Business Model - The company's revenue structure has shifted significantly, with e-commerce becoming the primary income source, surpassing traditional advertising [10][11] - Tim's ventures into e-commerce have seen substantial success, with sales figures indicating a strong market presence, including a single product selling over 200,000 units [10][12] - The brand's product offerings are tailored to resonate with its audience, emphasizing practicality and affordability, which aligns with the preferences of the target demographic [12][14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's performance [5][29]. Core Insights - The report highlights the significant growth in AI applications, with OpenAI's annual recurring revenue (ARR) expected to exceed $20 billion by 2025, driven by advancements in computing power and product commercialization [3][26]. - The gaming sector shows strong performance, with top mobile games achieving high download numbers and revenue rankings, indicating robust consumer engagement [2][17]. - The film industry is experiencing a resurgence, with a total box office of 304 million yuan in the week of January 19-25, 2026, and several films scheduled for release during the upcoming Spring Festival [22][23]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - From January 19 to January 25, 2026, the media industry (Shenwan) increased by 1.98%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which rose by 0.84% [12]. - The advertising and marketing sector led the gains with a 6.05% increase, while digital media saw a decline of 3.96% [12][16]. Key Industry Data AI Application Data - For the week of January 12-18, 2026, the estimated iOS downloads for major AI applications showed varied performance, with Deepseek down by 14.52% and Tencent's Yuanbao up by 2.27% [2][17]. - The weekly token usage on the OpenRouter platform was 7.50 trillion, reflecting a slight decrease of 1.96% [2][17]. Gaming Data - The top five mobile games on iOS as of January 24, 2026, included "Honor of Kings" and "Peacekeeper Elite," with "Tomorrow's Ark: The End of Days" entering the top five shortly after its release [2][19]. - Upcoming game releases include "Survival 33 Days" set for February 15 and "EVE," an AI companion app, expected to launch on March 14 [21][26]. Film Data - The total box office for domestic films reached 304 million yuan, with "Return to Silent Hill" leading the week with a box office of 66.06 million yuan [22][23]. - Four films have been scheduled for the Spring Festival, indicating a strong pipeline for theatrical releases [22][23]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on themes such as AI applications and cultural exports, with specific attention to sub-sectors like gaming, IP, short dramas, marketing, and publishing [3][27]. - Notable companies to watch include Giant Network, Perfect World, and Kuaishou, among others [3][27].