证券代码：002895 证券简称：川恒股份 公告编号：2025-125 贵州川恒化工股份有限公司 2025 年度为子公司提供担保的进展公告（四） 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有 虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 一、为子公司提供担保的情况概述 经贵州川恒化工股份有限公司（以下简称公司）第四届董事会第五次会议、 2024 年第七次临时股东大会审议通过，公司 2025 年度为合并报表范围内资产负 债率为 70%以上的子公司广西鹏越生态科技有限公司、贵州恒轩新能源材料有限 公司（以下简称恒轩新能源）的融资提供合计不超过 8.00 亿元的担保额度，具 体内容详见本公司在信息披露媒体披露的相关公告(公告编号：2024-166、 2024-168、2024-174、2025-024、2025-111、2025-123)。 2025 年 11 月 4 日，恒轩新能源与贵阳银行股份有限公司福泉支行（简称贵 阳银行福泉支行）签订《综合授信合同》，授信金额为 1.50 亿元，授信期限为 2025 年 11 月 4 日至 2028 年 11 月 3 日。 近日，公司和恒轩新能源另一股东国轩控股集团有 ...

Summary of Equity Research Report on China Chemicals Equities Industry Overview - The report focuses on the phosphate chemical industry in China, particularly the companies Chanhen, Yuntianhua, and Xinyangfeng, which are involved in phosphate fertilizers and related products. Key Points and Arguments 1. Positive Momentum in Phosphate Chemical Companies - Chanhen has shown sustained positive momentum with a share price increase of 65% year-to-date, outperforming the CSI300 index which rose by 19% [3][10] - The rally is attributed to a broad earnings beat in Q3 2025, driven by export arbitrage in phosphate fertilizers and strong demand for iron phosphate [3] 2. Earnings and Target Price Adjustments - Earnings estimates for 2025-2027 have been fine-tuned to reflect Q3 2025 results, with target prices adjusted for the three companies covered: - Chanhen: Target price raised to RMB 42.00 from RMB 37.60 [7] - Yuntianhua: Target price raised to RMB 38.90 from RMB 37.20 [7] - Xinyangfeng: Target price lowered to RMB 19.60 from RMB 20.00 [7] 3. Factors Supporting Chanhen's Performance - Chanhen's ability to pass through rising sulfur costs is highlighted as a key advantage [15] - The company is expanding its operations in rock and phosphate chemicals, providing growth visibility into 2026 [15] - A dividend yield of approximately 5% offers valuation support despite the share price rally [15] 4. Defensive Valuation of Xinyangfeng - Xinyangfeng is noted for its defensive valuation amid steady earnings growth, with expectations of improved Q4 2025 earnings due to delayed autumn planting [16] - The company is trading at a compelling valuation of 11x 2026e PE, considering long-term growth prospects [16] 5. Yuntianhua's Short-Term Challenges - Yuntianhua is expected to face challenges in Q4 2025 due to high sulfur costs and limited ability to pass these costs onto consumers [17] - The company’s share price gains have made its dividend yield less attractive at 2% [17] - Anticipated higher MAP/DAP exports in 2026 could provide earnings upside [17] 6. Market Dynamics and Risks - Elevated sulfur prices may lead to lower run rates for Chinese MAP and DAP producers, potentially easing export controls in 2026 [4] - The booming energy storage market is driving robust demand for iron phosphate, with expected demand increases of 1.7 million tons in 2025 and 1.2 million tons in 2026 [5] - Key downside risks include declining phosphate rock prices, tightened fertilizer export policies, and rising raw material costs leading to gross profit margin declines [6][60] 7. Financial Performance and Estimates - Chanhen's Q3 2025 net profit rose 35% to RMB 429 million, driven by strong phosphate acid exports [61] - Yuntianhua's net profit is expected to be supported by cost optimization and improved utilization rates in iron phosphate [52] 8. Valuation Methodology - The report employs a price-to-book (PB) and return on equity (ROE) methodology for valuation, with target prices reflecting adjustments based on updated earnings estimates [55] Additional Important Information - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring sulfur prices and government policies affecting fertilizer exports, as these factors significantly impact profitability in the phosphate chemical sector [4][60] - The overall sentiment in the phosphate chemical market remains positive, with expectations of continued demand growth driven by energy storage applications and agricultural needs [5][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the basic chemical industry, particularly focusing on the phosphate sector due to the anticipated growth in energy storage demand [5]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the potential for an upward adjustment in the phosphate industry chain's prosperity expectations, driven by rapid growth in energy storage demand [2][3]. - The phosphate rock segment is identified as having the strongest supply rigidity, making it a key focus for investment opportunities [3][46]. - The report emphasizes that the demand for phosphate rock is expected to increase significantly due to the growth of energy storage applications, particularly lithium iron phosphate batteries [8][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Energy Storage Demand Impact - The growth in energy storage is expected to enhance the demand for phosphate, with global energy storage battery shipments projected to exceed 500 GWh in 2025, a year-on-year increase of approximately 60% [8][12]. - It is estimated that the demand for lithium iron phosphate will lead to a requirement of about 1.2 million tons of lithium iron phosphate and approximately 4.4 million tons of phosphate rock in 2025 [15][39]. 2. Supply Side Dynamics - Concerns about a potential collapse in phosphate market prices due to new supply releases are addressed, with the report suggesting that the supply-demand balance will remain tight in the coming years [17][37]. - The report notes that the pricing power of phosphate rock suppliers is increasing, supported by steady demand from traditional agricultural needs and the rapid growth of new energy materials [25][37]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with significant phosphate rock production capacity, such as Xin Yang Feng, Yun Tu Holdings, and Xing Fa Group, which also have lithium iron phosphate production capabilities [3][46]. - It also highlights potential recovery opportunities in the lithium iron phosphate segment due to mismatches between demand growth and supply expansion [3][46].

Group 1 - The company, Chuanheng Co., stated that as of November 10, 2025, it has 33,718 shareholders [2]

Core Insights - The agricultural chemical sector experienced a decline of 0.94% on November 12, with Chengxing Co. leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4000.14, down 0.07%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13240.62, down 0.36% [1] Stock Performance Summary - Baiao Chemical (603360) saw a closing price of 34.59, with an increase of 4.22% and a trading volume of 182,100 shares, totaling a transaction value of 613 million yuan [1] - Chengxing Co. (600078) reported a significant decline of 10.00%, closing at 12.06 with a trading volume of 807,000 shares and a transaction value of 979 million yuan [2] - The overall agricultural chemical sector had a net outflow of 1.573 billion yuan from major funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 1.245 billion yuan [2][3] Fund Flow Analysis - Major funds showed a net inflow of 34.63 million yuan into Luohua Technology (600691), while retail investors had a net outflow of 28.86 million yuan [3] - Li Min Co. (002734) experienced a net inflow of 26.16 million yuan from major funds, but a net outflow of 34.85 million yuan from retail investors [3] - Baiao Chemical (603360) had a net inflow of 11.19 million yuan from major funds, with retail investors showing a net outflow of 8.34 million yuan [3]

Core Insights - Guizhou Hengyuan Mining Co., Ltd. has been established with Wu Haibin as the legal representative, focusing on mineral washing and processing, as well as the sale of non-metallic minerals and products [1] Company Summary - The new company is wholly owned by Chuanheng Co., Ltd. (002895) [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Chuanheng Co., Ltd. experienced a decline of 5.05% in its stock price, reaching 36.87 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 247 million CNY and a turnover rate of 1.11%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 22.405 billion CNY [1] - Chuanheng Co., Ltd. is based in Guizhou Province and was established on November 25, 2002. It was listed on August 25, 2017. The company's main business involves the production and sales of phosphoric acid and phosphate products [1] - The revenue composition of Chuanheng Co., Ltd. includes phosphoric acid (28.41%), feed-grade dicalcium phosphate (25.11%), monoammonium phosphate (21.29%), iron phosphate (9.46%), phosphate rock (6.93%), other products (3.56%), trading income (1.94%), others (1.57%), iron concentrate (1.11%), and ammonium sulfate (0.61%) [1] Group 2 - From the perspective of fund holdings, one fund under the Fuguo Fund has a significant position in Chuanheng Co., Ltd. The Fuguo CSI Value ETF (512040) held 790,100 shares in the third quarter, accounting for 1.38% of the fund's net value, making it the seventh-largest holding [2] - The Fuguo CSI Value ETF (512040) was established on November 7, 2018, with a current scale of 1.675 billion CNY. Year-to-date, it has achieved a return of 19.74%, ranking 2824 out of 4216 in its category. Over the past year, it has returned 19.03%, ranking 1938 out of 3937, and since inception, it has returned 162.93% [2]

Group 1 - The price of phosphate rock remains high due to a surge in chemical prices, with market averages reported at 1017 CNY/ton for 30% grade, 945 CNY/ton for 28% grade, and 758 CNY/ton for 25% grade as of November 11 [2] - The phosphate rock market is expected to maintain a tight supply-demand balance in the short term due to strict environmental policies, steady growth in new energy demand, and slow new capacity additions [2][3] - The domestic phosphate rock production capacity is projected to be around 150 million tons in 2024, slightly lower than in 2023, with limited actual circulation concentrated in regions like Hubei, Sichuan, Guizhou, and Yunnan [3] Group 2 - The demand for phosphate rock is primarily driven by traditional phosphate fertilizers and emerging lithium battery materials, with the latter becoming a significant growth factor [3] - It is estimated that producing 1 ton of lithium iron phosphate consumes approximately 2.5 to 4 tons of phosphate rock, leading to an expected demand of nearly 7 million tons due to a projected output of over 2.5 million tons of lithium iron phosphate in 2024 [3] - Companies like Yuntianhua, Xingfa Group, and Chuanheng Co. are well-positioned in the market due to their substantial phosphate rock reserves [3] Group 3 - Yuntianhua has phosphate rock reserves of nearly 800 million tons and an annual raw ore production capacity of 14.5 million tons, with ongoing projects expected to enhance resource self-sufficiency [4] - Xingfa Group holds phosphate resources with a total reserve of approximately 395 million tons, with additional exploration and mining rights increasing its resource base [4] - Chuanheng Co. has a production capacity of over 3.2 million tons of phosphate rock and various mining rights through its subsidiaries [5] Group 4 - Several phosphate chemical companies reported significant net profit growth in Q3, with Yuntianhua, Chuanjinno, and Chuanfa Longmang achieving net profits of 1.968 billion CNY, 127 million CNY, and 198 million CNY, respectively, reflecting year-on-year increases of 24.3%, 189.4%, and 50.9% [5] - Environmental policies are expected to phase out outdated production capacities, with new regulations aiming for a 65% utilization rate of phosphogypsum by 2026 [5] - Phosphate rock prices are anticipated to remain stable in the next one to two years due to mutual support between phosphate fertilizer and phosphate rock prices, alongside rising raw material costs [5]

Core Viewpoint - Chuanheng Co., Ltd. has shown significant stock price growth and strong financial performance in recent months, indicating a positive market sentiment and operational efficiency [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Chuanheng Co., Ltd. achieved a revenue of 5.804 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 46.08% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was 965 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 43.50% [2]. Stock Performance - As of November 11, Chuanheng's stock price increased by 69.27% year-to-date, with a 16.19% rise over the last five trading days, 27.23% over the last 20 days, and 57.19% over the last 60 days [1]. - The stock was trading at 39.11 yuan per share, with a market capitalization of 23.766 billion yuan [1]. Shareholder Information - As of October 31, the number of shareholders increased to 32,700, up by 13.30% from the previous period [2]. - The average number of circulating shares per shareholder decreased by 11.74% to 18,249 shares [2]. Dividend Distribution - Chuanheng Co., Ltd. has distributed a total of 2.133 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 1.729 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. Major Shareholders - As of September 30, 2025, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited was the fourth largest circulating shareholder, holding 11.3947 million shares, an increase of 7.0653 million shares from the previous period [3]. - Shenwan Hongyuan Securities Co., Ltd. ranked fifth among the top circulating shareholders, with a holding of 6.466 million shares, up by 429,600 shares [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the chemical industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The chemical industry is experiencing a recovery in profitability, particularly in the phosphorous chemical sector, driven by strong demand for lithium iron phosphate and rising electricity costs, leading to price increases for most phosphorous chemical products [4][24][29] - The report highlights a trend of "anti-involution" in the caprolactam industry, with a 20% production cut agreed upon by manufacturers to stabilize prices [5] - The overall chemical industry index outperformed the CSI 300 index by 2.72% this week, indicating a positive market sentiment [16] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The phosphorous chemical market is seeing a favorable demand for lithium iron phosphate, with prices for yellow phosphorus and phosphoric acid rising due to strong cost support and limited supply [4][24] - The average price of yellow phosphorus reached 22,486 CNY/ton, up 2.34% from the previous week [24] - Phosphoric acid prices have also increased, with an average of 10,530 CNY/ton, reflecting strong market orders [4][25] Key Products - The price of industrial-grade monoammonium phosphate (MAP) has risen to 6,082 CNY/ton, a 2.32% increase from the previous week, driven by stable demand and limited supply [4][26] - The price of diammonium phosphate (DAP) remains stable at 3,596 CNY/ton, with cautious purchasing behavior observed among traders [4][27] Recommended and Beneficiary Stocks - Recommended stocks include leading companies in the chemical sector such as Xingfa Group and Yuntianhua, while beneficiary stocks include companies like Hubei Yihua and Chuanheng Co [4][6][29] - The report emphasizes the importance of integrated operations in the phosphorous chemical sector, which enhances competitive barriers and supports long-term profitability [29] Market Performance - The chemical industry index reported a 3.54% increase this week, with 72.59% of the stocks in the sector showing positive performance [16][21] - The report tracks price movements across 226 chemical products, with 63 products seeing price increases and 96 experiencing declines [17]