川恒股份 20251217 摘要 公司在技术研发方面投入不断增加，技术人员占比从 2020 年的 10%提升到 2024 年的 20%。从 2017 年至 2024 年的产品结构来看，公司传统支柱产品 饲料级磷酸二氢钙的营收占比从 67.67%回落至 24.47%左右，而其他业务板 块如磷酸等贡献度有所提升。2024 年，磷酸产品首次超过饲料级磷酸二氢钙 成为最大的收入来源。 磷酸业务的发展情况如何？ 公司依托自有高品位磷矿与半水湿法工艺生产高品质低杂质含量的商品和净化 磷酸，目前拥有商品磷取 20 万吨及净化 10 万吨产能。受环保限产及需求回升 影响，21-22 年价格曾爆发式上涨至每吨 2 万元以上，但随后进入下行通道并 趋于稳定。中国 20-24 年表观消费量年均增速达 14%，预计 25 年同比增速可 达 30%，产能利用率也将稳步提升。 川恒股份以磷矿石为起点，通过湿法工艺生产磷酸及其他化工产品，如 饲料级磷酸二氢钙、磷酸一铵和磷酸铁等，并不断加大技术研发投入， 技术人员占比从 2020 年的 10%提升到 2024 年的 20%。 公司产品结构发生显著变化，传统支柱产品饲料级磷酸二氢钙营收占比 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [5] Core Insights - The central economic work conference has outlined key tasks for 2026, emphasizing high-quality development and green transformation, which will drive optimization in the chemical industry [8] - MDI prices have shown strong resilience, influenced by unexpected production halts in major facilities, leading to a favorable supply-demand situation [8] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The chemical industry is expected to recover, with specific focus on MDI, PVC, and phosphate chemicals due to strong demand from energy storage growth [3][8] Investment Recommendations - Companies with potential for recovery in the PVC sector include: Zhongtai Chemical, Xinjiang Tianye, Chlor-alkali Chemical, and Tianyuan Co., all currently unrated [3] - MDI leader: Wanhua Chemical is rated as "Buy" [3] - In the phosphate chemical sector, companies to watch include: Chuanheng Co. and Yuntianhua, both currently unrated [3] - In the oxalic acid industry, recommended stocks include: Hualu Hengsheng, Huayi Group, and Wankai New Materials, all rated as "Buy" [3]

Core Insights - The chemical industry is entering a favorable phase driven by demand, value, and supply dynamics [5][6][7] - Global supply constraints and the exit of European capacities are expected to enhance the market environment for the chemical sector [7] Demand Drivers - Key opportunities identified in various sectors include: - Gas turbine upstream: companies like Zhenhua Co., Yingliu Co., Longda Co., and Wanze Co. [5] - Refrigerants and fluorinated liquids: companies such as Juhua Co., New Zhoubang, and Runhe Materials [5] - Energy storage supply chain: including Chuanheng Co., Xingfa Group, Yuntianhua, Batian Co., and others [5] - Semiconductor materials: companies like Yanggu Huatai, Wanrun Co., Dinglong Co., and others [5] Value Drivers - Potential for increased dividend yields in sectors such as: - Coal chemical: Hualu Hengsheng, Luxi Chemical, and Baofeng Energy [6] - Oil refining: Hengli Petrochemical, Satellite Chemical, and Sinopec [6] - Phosphate fertilizers: Yuntianhua, Yuntu Holdings, and others [6] Supply Drivers - Domestic anti-involution policies and the exit of European production capacities are expected to support the chemical industry: - PTA and polyester filament: companies like Xin Fengming and Tongkun Co. [7] - Tire manufacturing: including Sailun Tire, Zhongce Rubber, and others [7] Key Companies and Profit Forecasts - Selected companies with profit forecasts include: - Zhenhua Co. (Net profit forecast for 2025: 6.04 billion, PE: 21.8) [8] - Yingliu Co. (Net profit forecast for 2025: 4.08 billion, PE: 42.7) [8] - Longda Co. (Net profit forecast for 2025: 1.06 billion, PE: 34.9) [8] - Wanze Co. (Net profit forecast for 2025: 2.37 billion, PE: 32.9) [8] - Juhua Co. (Net profit forecast for 2025: 48.14 billion, PE: 24.4) [8] Industry Cycle Insights - The chemical industry is expected to enter a new cycle, with demand recovery and supply-side reforms driving growth [14][21] - The chemical price index has shown signs of recovery, indicating a potential upturn in the market [20][21]

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月12日 川恒股份（002895.SZ） 优于大市 磷酸盐主业稳根基，磷矿石资源助增长 资源为基，构建"矿化一体"全产业链壁垒。川恒股份是国内磷化工行业资 源型领军企业，核心竞争力源于优质磷矿资源。公司通过控股福麟矿业 （90%）、黔源地勘（58.5%）及参股天一矿业（40%），布局小坝、新桥、 鸡公岭、老虎洞等高品位矿山，2025 年权益磷矿石产能达 320 万吨，2027 年后将突破 850 万吨。中国以全球约 5%的磷矿储量支撑近半产量，资源禀赋 差、环保约束强，稀缺属性持续强化，为公司提供长期成本优势和战略安全。 磷酸为核心中间体，高纯工艺构筑差异化竞争力。磷酸是磷化工产业链的核 心中间产品，公司依托自有高品位磷矿与半水湿法工艺，生产出铁、铝、镁 等杂质含量显著低于行业标准的高品质磷酸，涵盖工业级、食品级等规格。 广西扶绥基地拥有商品磷酸 20 万吨/年与净化磷酸 10 万吨/年产能，受益于 下游需求刚性增长与供给趋紧，公司磷酸业务毛利率显著高于同业。 饲料级磷酸二氢钙全球龙头，供需格局向好。公司饲料级磷酸二氢钙总设计 产能达 51 万吨/年，为全球最大的生产商。当前行 ...

（文章来源：证券日报） 证券日报网讯 12月11日，川恒股份在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，截至2025年12月10日，公司股 东为29423户。 ...

Investment Direction 1: Dividend Strategy - Recommended companies include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and China National Petroleum Corporation (PetroChina) with an expected Brent oil price range of $60-70 per barrel in 2026 [2][3] - CNOOC is committed to maintaining a dividend payout ratio of no less than 45% from 2025 to 2027, while PetroChina benefits from domestic natural gas market reforms [2][3] Investment Direction 2: Capital Allocation to Undervalued Chemical Leaders - Recommended companies include Wanhua Chemical, Baofeng Energy, Satellite Chemical, and Hualu Hengsheng, which are expected to benefit from industry barriers related to cost, technology, and market [2][3] - The report suggests prioritizing capital allocation to chemical ETFs and leading companies as their performance is expected to stabilize [2][3] Investment Direction 3: Price Increases Driven by Downstream Demand - Traditional demand sectors such as food additives, pesticides, and fertilizers are highlighted, with companies like New Hope Liuhe and Jiangshan Chemical expected to benefit from stable growth in demand [2][3] - Emerging demand in phosphorous and fluorine chemicals is driven by the needs of new energy battery and AI cooling applications, with companies like Chuanheng Chemical and Juhua Co. being key players [2][3] Investment Direction 4: Domestic Anti-Competition Driving Price Increases - The report emphasizes the focus on large refining and chemical companies such as Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical, which are expected to benefit from anti-competitive measures in the domestic market [2][3] - The organic silicon sector is entering the end of its expansion cycle, with major companies like Sinan Silicon Material adjusting industry operating rates [2][3] - The soda ash industry is facing capacity controls and the need to phase out outdated production, with companies like Boyuan Chemical under observation [2][3] Oil Price Analysis - The report anticipates a Brent oil price range of $60-70 per barrel in 2026, with a slight oversupply expected [11][12] - OPEC+ has postponed production increases for Q1 2026, indicating a cautious approach to market conditions [11][12] - The report highlights geopolitical factors, including the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and U.S.-Venezuela relations, which may impact oil supply dynamics [12][13] Three Major Oil Companies Insights - CNOOC is focused on increasing reserves and production while reducing costs, while PetroChina is benefiting from natural gas market reforms [34][36] - Sinopec is concentrating on domestic refining and chemical anti-competition developments [34][36] - The overall profitability of the three major oil companies is expected to be supported by the anticipated oil price stabilization [34][36]

磷矿石是上游主要原材料，黄磷、磷酸是重要中间体，下游产品主要用于农业和工业两大领域。磷化工产业链上游原料主要是磷矿石和硫磺，按工艺的不 同，磷矿石可以直接与无机酸（硫酸等）反应制成磷酸，接着加工成各种磷化工产品；也可以先制得黄磷，再制成磷酸。下游磷化工产品主要分为两大 类： 一类是应用于农业中，如以磷酸一铵、磷酸二铵及磷酸氢钙为代表的磷肥，或草甘膦等含磷农药；另一类则是广泛用于工业、食品、医药领域的磷酸盐， 包括三聚磷酸钠、六偏磷酸钠等。 磷化工上游主要是磷矿石，磷酸是重要中间体，下游产品用于农业/工业领域。 我国磷化工产业基础优良，产业高质量发展仍受制约。近年来，我国依托相对丰富的磷矿资源和完善的产业基础，磷化工产业取得了长足发展： 一是产业规模全球领先，已是全球最大的磷矿石、磷化学品生产国； 二是产业体系较为完备，形成磷矿开采，黄磷、磷酸、磷酸盐、磷化物等系列产品生产的完整产业链； 三是集约发展具备较好基础，磷资源开采、黄磷及磷肥生产均主要集聚在云南、贵州、湖北、四川等四省，形成了云南安宁产业园、瓮安经济开发区化工 园区、湖北宜都化工园、绵竹新市化工园区等一批特色磷化工园区，培育了以贵州磷化、云南云天化、 ...

东吴证券发布研报称，预计2025-2026年磷矿石新增需求482、612万吨，动储领域为主力。磷矿规划产 能与实际落地产能存在较大差距，主要原因是产能需要爬坡时间，且供给受环保安全事件影响程度较 大。看好兼具磷矿资源与磷酸铁产能的一体化企业。 价格展望 磷矿石：2024年我国磷矿石产能开工率58%，有效产能开工率95%。该行预计2025、2026年磷矿石供需 整体平衡，产能开工率57%、54%，而有效产能开工率92%、88%，仍保持较高水平。低品位磷矿石价 格可能略有承压，高品位磷矿石价格将维持高位。 磷酸铁：该行预计磷酸铁供需偏紧张，行业有效产能开工率已在2025Q3开始回暖，假设2025、2026年 磷酸铁有效产能开工率为60%、80%，我国磷酸铁仍存在供需缺口(2024年，我国磷酸铁有效产能开工率 仅有48%)。随着下游磷酸铁锂企业盈利能力修复，磷酸铁景气度有望回暖。 东吴证券主要观点如下： 需求端 磷矿石：2024年我国磷矿石需求量11320万吨，该行预计2025、2026年磷矿石需求量11802、12414万 吨，实际新增需求量482、612万吨，其中新兴领域的需求增长，而传统领域的需求下降。1)新 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Dongwu Securities highlights the expected growth in demand for phosphate rock driven by emerging sectors, while traditional demand is projected to decline. The overall supply and demand dynamics for phosphate rock and iron phosphate are analyzed for the years 2024 to 2026 [1][2][3]. Demand Side - Phosphate rock demand in China is projected to be 11,320 million tons in 2024, with expectations of 11,802 million tons and 12,414 million tons in 2025 and 2026 respectively. The actual increase in demand is estimated at 482 million tons and 612 million tons [1]. - Emerging sectors, particularly energy storage and power batteries, are expected to drive demand for phosphate rock, with an increase of 393 million tons and 431 million tons in 2025 and 2026 respectively. Iron phosphate is anticipated to contribute significantly to this demand [1]. - Traditional demand for phosphate fertilizers is expected to weaken due to rising raw material prices, with a forecasted decline in phosphate fertilizer production in early 2025 [1]. - Iron phosphate demand is projected to reach 214 million tons in 2024, increasing to 325 million tons and 449 million tons in 2025 and 2026, respectively, with significant contributions from energy storage [1]. Supply Side - Phosphate rock production capacity in China is expected to be 19,447 million tons in 2024, with projections of 21,732 million tons and 24,762 million tons for 2025 and 2026. Effective capacity and production are also expected to increase correspondingly [2]. - The supply of phosphate rock is significantly impacted by environmental safety incidents, leading to a gap between planned and actual production capacity [2]. - The iron phosphate industry is characterized by long-term overcapacity, with effective capacity and production expected to rise from 426 million tons and 205 million tons in 2024 to 499 million tons and 540 million tons in 2025 and 2026, respectively [2]. Price Outlook - The operating rate for phosphate rock capacity is projected to be 58% in 2024, with expectations of 57% and 54% in 2025 and 2026. High-grade phosphate rock prices are expected to remain elevated, while low-grade prices may face slight pressure [3]. - The iron phosphate market is anticipated to experience tight supply conditions, with operating rates expected to improve significantly in 2025 and 2026, indicating a potential supply gap [3]. Recommended Companies - Companies with phosphate iron and phosphate rock layouts are recommended, including Tianci Materials, Hunan YN, and Zhongwei Co. [4]. - Integrated chemical companies with phosphate iron production and phosphate rock resources are expected to benefit from rising phosphate iron prices, with suggested companies including Chuanheng Co., Xingfa Group, and others [4].

（文章来源：证券日报） 证券日报网讯 12月9日，川恒股份在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司在产矿山中，小坝磷矿正在 进行技改，原预计在2027年6月末达到预定可使用状态，根据目前的情况，较大可能会提前完成。新桥 磷矿山正常生产。目前在产矿山年产量在320余万吨。在建矿山中，鸡公岭磷矿250万吨/年项目建设正 常进行，预计2026年可产出工程矿，2027年末投产；老寨子磷矿180万吨/年项目已开工建设，预计2026 年下半年可产出工程矿，2027年末投产。 ...