Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a projected investment return exceeding the market benchmark by more than 15% over the next 6-12 months [4][6]. Core Insights - The company experienced a revenue increase of 4.85% year-on-year in 2024, reaching 7.847 billion yuan, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 6.83% to 942 million yuan [1][2]. - The decline in profitability is attributed to increased competition in the battery chemicals sector, falling product prices, and rising operational costs during the capacity ramp-up phase of new projects [2][4]. - The company is actively expanding its global production capacity, with significant projects underway in various regions, including semiconductor materials and battery chemicals [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the battery chemicals segment generated 5.116 billion yuan in revenue, a 1.24% increase, despite a decline in profitability due to lower product prices. The capacitor chemicals segment saw a 21.91% revenue increase to 766 million yuan, driven by demand from emerging industries [2][5]. - The company reported a Q4 2024 revenue of 2.180 billion yuan, up 14.64% year-on-year, with a net profit of 241 million yuan, reflecting a 12.47% increase [1]. Capacity Expansion - As of the end of 2024, the company has a total production capacity of 455,400 tons per year for battery chemicals, with a utilization rate of 83.16%. There are ongoing projects that will add 212,200 tons of capacity [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted downward, with expected net profits of 1.192 billion yuan (down 18.9%), 1.565 billion yuan (down 22.5%), and 1.913 billion yuan, respectively. The company is focusing on new electronic chemicals and functional materials, with promising growth prospects [4][5].

Macro Strategy - The report emphasizes that expanding consumer demand is more effective than capacity reduction policies in addressing low inflation, as service prices have dropped to historical lows, which is the core issue of the current price cycle [1][10] - If consumption policies are strengthened, service prices could rise by 2 percentage points, leading to a GDP deflator increase from -0.7% to +0.39%, which would be more beneficial than the effects of capacity reduction [1][10] - Historical comparisons indicate that the current price pressure is primarily demand-driven, with the second industry contributing only 48% to the current low inflation, significantly lower than previous years [1][10] Fixed Income Strategy - The report discusses the introduction of buying and selling government bonds as a new monetary policy tool in China, aimed at managing interest rate risks amid a declining yield environment [2][12] - It highlights that the People's Bank of China has primarily focused on buying government bonds to release liquidity, given the current low inflation environment [2][12] - The effectiveness of these operations will depend on the central bank's ability to provide clear forward guidance to shape market expectations [2][12] Company Analysis: Zhengfan Convertible Bonds - Zhengfan Convertible Bonds are expected to list at a price between 115.63 and 128.82 yuan, with a subscription rate of 0.0048% [3][15] - The bonds have a solid debt protection feature, with a conversion premium rate of approximately 25% anticipated on the first day of listing [3][15] - Zhengfan Technology has shown steady revenue growth, with a compound annual growth rate of 34.10% from 2019 to 2023, and a revenue of 38.35 billion yuan in 2023, reflecting a 41.78% year-on-year increase [3][15] Company Analysis: Kelun-Botai - Kelun-Botai's revenue for 2024 is projected at 19.3 billion yuan, a 25.5% increase year-on-year, with a gross profit of 12.74 billion yuan, up 67.8% [5][16] - The company is expected to see rapid growth in multiple products as they commercialize, with significant clinical data supporting their efficacy [5][16] - Revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been raised to 17.8 billion and 35.6 billion yuan, respectively, with an expected revenue of 58.9 billion yuan in 2027 [5][16] Company Analysis: China National Materials - China National Materials reported a total revenue of 461.27 billion yuan for 2024, a 0.7% increase, and a net profit of 29.83 billion yuan, up 2.3% [6][19] - The company has shown resilience in its Q4 performance, with overseas engineering and operation maintenance businesses performing well [6][19] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 4.5 yuan per 10 shares, reflecting its commitment to shareholder returns [6][19]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance has been impacted by expenses and depreciation, but the electrolyte market is showing signs of recovery, and the growth trend in fluorochemical products remains intact [1] - The company reported a total revenue of 7,847 million yuan for 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 4.9%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 942 million yuan, down 6.8% year-on-year [6] - The electrolyte industry is currently experiencing a bottoming out phase, with the average market price for lithium iron phosphate electrolyte expected to be 19,900 yuan per ton in 2024, a decline of 41.4% year-on-year [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue forecast for the company is as follows: - 2023: 7,484 million yuan - 2024: 7,847 million yuan - 2025E: 10,009 million yuan - 2026E: 12,338 million yuan - 2027E: 14,587 million yuan - Year-on-year growth rates for total revenue are projected to be: - 2023: -22.5% - 2024: 4.9% - 2025E: 27.6% - 2026E: 23.3% - 2027E: 18.2% [5][8] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted as follows: - 2023: 1,011 million yuan - 2024: 942 million yuan - 2025E: 1,442 million yuan - 2026E: 1,816 million yuan - 2027E: 2,129 million yuan - Year-on-year growth rates for net profit are projected to be: - 2023: -42.5% - 2024: -6.8% - 2025E: 53.1% - 2026E: 25.9% - 2027E: 17.3% [5][8] - The company's current price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to be 26 for 2023, decreasing to 12 by 2027 [5]

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·电池 新宙邦（300037） 2024 年年报点评： Q4 业绩略低于预期，25 年氟化工+电解液拐点将至 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 7484 | 7847 | 10239 | 13035 | 16678 | | 同比（%） | (22.53) | 4.85 | 30.48 | 27.31 | 27.95 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 1,011.07 | 942.05 | 1,313.20 | 1,617.30 | 2,005.03 | | 同比（%） | (42.50) | (6.83) | 39.40 | 23.16 | 23.97 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 1.34 | 1.25 | 1.74 | 2.15 | 2.66 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 24.75 | 26.57 | 19.06 | 15.48 | 12.48 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 15% relative to the benchmark index [6]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 7.847 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 4.85%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 6.83% to 942 million yuan [1]. - The company is expanding its production capacity both domestically and internationally, with significant projects underway in Nantong, Chongqing, and the United States, aiming for a total designed capacity of 455,400 tons [3]. - The electrolyte business faced pressure on profitability due to declining product prices, despite a substantial increase in sales volume of 66.8% year-on-year, reaching approximately 350,000 tons [3]. - The fluorochemical segment reported a revenue of 1.529 billion yuan, growing by 7.25% year-on-year, benefiting from a focus on high-end fine chemicals and fluoropolymer applications [3]. - The company’s capacitor and semiconductor chemical segments showed strong growth, with revenues of 766 million yuan and 368 million yuan, representing year-on-year increases of 21.91% and 18.35%, respectively [4]. Financial Forecasts - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 9.613 billion yuan, 11.690 billion yuan, and 13.655 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 22.5%, 21.6%, and 16.8% respectively [5]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 1.097 billion yuan, 1.318 billion yuan, and 1.460 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 16.5%, 20.2%, and 10.8% respectively [5]. - The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are projected to be 24, 20, and 18 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [5].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported its 2024 annual results, showing a slight increase in revenue but a decrease in net profit, with ongoing global capacity expansion in its electrolyte and fluorochemical businesses [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 7.847 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.85%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 942 million yuan, a decrease of 6.83% [1]. - For Q4 2024, revenue was 2.180 billion yuan, up 14.68% year-on-year and 4.56% quarter-on-quarter, with net profit at 241 million yuan, an increase of 12.62% year-on-year but a decrease of 15.73% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The gross margin for Q4 2024 was 24.95%, down 1.14 percentage points year-on-year and 0.77 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1]. Group 2: Business Segments - The battery chemicals segment shipped approximately 350,000 tons in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 66.8%, although product prices continued to decline, leading to only a slight increase in sales revenue [2]. - The fluorochemical business generated revenue of 1.529 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 7.25%, with a gross margin of 9.34% [2]. - The company’s capacitor chemicals revenue reached 766 million yuan, a year-on-year growth of 21.91%, while semiconductor chemicals revenue was 368 million yuan, up 18.35% year-on-year [3]. Group 3: Capacity Expansion - The company is advancing several projects, including the Nantong battery chemicals project and the Chongqing battery materials project, with a total designed capacity of 455,400 tons and 212,200 tons under construction, achieving a capacity utilization rate of 83.16% [2]. - In the fluorochemical sector, projects such as the Haidefu high-performance fluoromaterials project and the Sanming Haisefu fluorochemical project are under construction, with a focus on high-end fine chemicals [2]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The company expects revenues of 9.613 billion yuan, 11.690 billion yuan, and 13.655 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 22.5%, 21.6%, and 16.8% respectively [3]. - Projected net profits for the same period are 1.097 billion yuan, 1.318 billion yuan, and 1.460 billion yuan, with growth rates of 16.5%, 20.2%, and 10.8% respectively [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 15% relative to the benchmark index [6]. Core Views - The company's 2024 revenue reached 7.847 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.85%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 6.83% to 942 million yuan [1]. - The company is expanding its production capacity both domestically and internationally, with significant projects underway in Nantong, Chongqing, and the United States, aiming for a total designed capacity of 455,400 tons [3]. - The electrolyte business faced profit pressure due to declining product prices, despite a 66.8% increase in sales volume, totaling approximately 350,000 tons [3]. - The fluorochemical segment reported revenue of 1.529 billion yuan, up 7.25% year-on-year, benefiting from a focus on high-end fine chemicals and fluoropolymer applications [3]. - Revenue from capacitor chemicals grew by 21.91% to 766 million yuan, while semiconductor chemicals increased by 18.35% to 368 million yuan, driven by demand in the integrated circuit sector [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved revenue of 2.180 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.68%, with a net profit of 241 million yuan, up 12.62% [2]. - The gross margin for Q4 2024 was 24.95%, a decrease of 1.14 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The company expects revenues of 9.613 billion, 11.690 billion, and 13.655 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with growth rates of 22.5%, 21.6%, and 16.8% [5]. Capacity Expansion - The company is actively pursuing global capacity expansion, with ongoing projects in various locations, contributing to a capacity utilization rate of 83.16% [3]. Market Position - The company maintains a strong market position in the capacitor and semiconductor chemical sectors, leveraging advanced technology to increase market share [4]. Future Outlook - The forecasted net profit for 2025 is 1.097 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 16.5% [5].

电解液龙头新宙邦毛利率连续四年下滑 电解液龙头新宙邦(300037.SZ)去年净利再度负增长。 3月24日，新宙邦披露2024年年报，其去年实现营收78.47亿元，同比增加4.85%；净利润9.42亿 元，同比减少6.83%。 这是新宙邦连续第二年净利同比减少，但下降幅度已明显收窄。该公司2023年的净利润为10亿元， 同比减少42.5%。在此之前的2015-2022年，新宙邦连续七年实现净利增长。 值得注意的是，去年新宙邦毛利率为26.49%，连续第四年出现下滑，已较2020年的36%降低了近10 个百分点。 新宙邦毛利率的下滑，或与其电池化学品业务近年来的疲软相关。 成立于2002年的新宙邦，以新型电子化学品及功能材料的研发、生产、销售和服务为主营业务，主 要产品包括电池化学品、有机氟化学品、电容化学品、半导体化学品四大系列。 2024年，电池化学品、有机氟化学品、电容化学品三大业务为新宙邦贡献了总计94.44%的营收。 其中，电池化学品业务实现营业收入51.16亿元，同比增长1.24%，占总营收比例为65.19%，较上年同期 下滑超2个百分点。 新宙邦电池化学品系列的主要产品为锂离子电池电解液，是锂离子 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 7.847 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 4.85%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 942 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.83% [1] - The organic fluorine segment is expected to grow as 3M exits the market in 2025, providing new opportunities for the company's fluorinated products [3] - The electrolyte segment faced pressure due to increased competition and a significant drop in product prices, with the average price per ton decreasing by 41.3% year-on-year [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported revenues of 51.2 million yuan from electrolytes, 15.3 million yuan from organic fluorine, 7.7 million yuan from capacitors, and 3.7 million yuan from semiconductors, with year-on-year changes of +1.24%, +7.25%, +21.91%, and +18.35% respectively [2] - The gross margin for the company decreased to 26.49%, down 2.45 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the impact of the electrolyte segment [2] - The company’s net profit margin was 12.13%, a decrease of 1.37 percentage points year-on-year [2] Future Outlook - The company plans to enhance its competitive edge by investing in key raw materials and expanding its production capabilities, including a new base in Poland to meet international demand [3] - The forecast for net profit attributable to the parent company is adjusted to 1.198 billion yuan for 2025 and 1.541 billion yuan for 2026, with a projected increase to 1.949 billion yuan by 2027 [4] - The report indicates that the company’s earnings could see significant growth in Q1 2025 as the fluorinated products ramp up production [3] Valuation Metrics - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 21.7 for 2025, 16.9 for 2026, and 13.4 for 2027 [4] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from 1.25 yuan in 2024 to 2.58 yuan by 2027 [4]

新宙邦(300037)：费用及折旧拖累业绩 电解液景气 底部补强 氟化工成长趋势不变 公司公告：公司发布2024 年报，报告期内实现营业收入78.47 亿元（YoY+4.85%），归母净利润 9.42 亿元（YoY-6.83%），扣非归母净利润9.5 亿元（YoY-0.59%）。其中，24Q4 实现营业收入21.8 亿 元（YoY+14.64%，QoQ +4.57%），归母净利润2.41 亿元（YoY+12.47%，QoQ -15.78%），业绩基本符 合预期。公司发布2024 年利润分配预案，拟每10 股派发现金红利人民币4 元（含税），合计派发现金 红利总额约2.99 亿元，分红比例达31.71%。毛利率方面，电解液业务景气再度承压，氟化工产品结构 调整，公司24Q4 单季度毛利率24.95%，基本保持稳定；期间费用方面，管理费用、研发费用环比分别 增加0.15、0.34 亿元，同时由于库存减值及交易性金融资产跌价，Q4 公允价值变动及资产/信用减值合 计计提约0.41 亿元，拖累单季度净利率环比下滑2.62pct 至11.23%。 电解液景气触底震荡，拓展海外市场叠加延伸产业链，公司竞争力持续凸显。20 ...