[Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/医药与健康护理/医疗保健设备与用品 证券研究报告 汤臣倍健（300146）公司季报点评 2024 年 11 月 05 日 [Table_InvestInfo] 投资评级 优于大市 维持 | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------------------|-------------| | | | | 股票数据 | | | 11 [ Table_StockInfo 月 05 日收盘价（元） ] | 13.26 | | 52 周股价波动（元） | 10.65-18.55 | | 总股本 / 流通 A 股（百万股） | 1701/1130 | | 总市值 / 流通市值（百万元） | 22553/14984 | | 相关研究 | | | [Table_ReportInfo] 《 23Q4 基数较高导致收入承压，品牌建设费 | | | 用投入较大》 2024.03.21 | | 市场表现 [Table_QuoteInfo] -37.81% -29.81% -21.81% -13.81% ...

Investment Rating - The report has downgraded the investment rating to "Accumulate" [5][7] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 5.734 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 26.33%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 869 million yuan, down 54.31% year-on-year [1] - The company is undergoing product adjustments, with the core products' iteration and upgrade process slower than planned, impacting short-term performance [2][5] - The company aims to enhance operational quality by focusing on core brands, channels, and categories amidst a changing consumer environment and intensified competition [2][3] Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1.120 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 48.76%, with a net profit of -22 million yuan, down 106.30% year-on-year [1] - The main brand "汤臣倍健" generated revenue of 3.194 billion yuan, down 29.20% year-on-year, while "健力多" and "lifespace" also saw significant declines [2] - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 67.93%, a decrease of 1.73 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to price wars in online channels and cost pressures [4] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The revenue forecast for 2024-2026 has been adjusted to 7.161 billion, 7.715 billion, and 8.472 billion yuan, respectively, with net profit estimates of 739 million, 1.100 billion, and 1.370 billion yuan [5][6] - The company is expected to experience a significant decline in net profit in 2024, with a year-on-year decrease of 57.70% [5] Market Position and Strategy - The company has established a strong competitive barrier in offline pharmacy channels, holding over 30% market share, while facing intense competition in online channels [3] - Future strategies include activating the distributor team, enhancing service capabilities, and optimizing expenditure models to maintain healthy growth in a competitive environment [3]

证券代码：300146 证券简称：汤臣倍健 公告编号：2024-071 汤臣倍健股份有限公司 关于回购股份的进展公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假记载、误导 性陈述或重大遗漏。 汤臣倍健股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）分别于 2024 年 8 月 4 日、8 月 21 日召开第六届董事会第十次会议及 2024 年第二次临时股东大会，审议通过了 《关于回购公司股份方案的议案》，同意公司使用自有资金以集中竞价交易方式 回购股份，用于注销并减少注册资本。本次回购资金总额不低于人民币 10,000 万 元（含），不超过人民币 20,000 万元（含），回购价格不超过人民币 20 元/股（含）， 回购期限为自股东大会审议通过回购股份方案之日起不超过 12 个月。具体内容 详见公司于 2024 年 8 月 6 日刊登在巨潮资讯网的《关于回购股份方案的公告》。 一、回购股份进展情况 根据《上市公司股份回购规则》《深圳证券交易所上市公司自律监管指引第 9 号——回购股份》等相关规定，公司在回购期间，应于每个月的前三个交易日 内披露截至上月末的回购进展情况。现将回购股份进展情况公告如下： ...

证券代码：300146 证券简称：汤臣倍健 公告编号：2024-070 汤臣倍健股份有限公司 关于股份回购实施结果暨股份变动公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假记载、误导 性陈述或重大遗漏。 汤臣倍健股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于 2023 年 10 月 30 日召开第六 届董事会第三次会议，审议通过了《关于回购公司股份方案的议案》，同意公司 使用自有资金以集中竞价交易方式回购股份，用于公司员工持股计划或股权激励。 回购资金总额不低于人民币 15,000 万元（含），不超过人民币 30,000 万元（含）， 回购价格不超过人民币 26 元/股（含），回购期限为自董事会审议通过回购股份 方案之日起不超过 12 个月。具体内容详见公司于 2023 年 10 月 30 日刊登在巨潮 资讯网的《关于回购股份方案的公告》。 截至本公告披露日，公司本次回购股份方案已实施完毕，根据《深圳证券交 易所上市公司自律监管指引第 9 号——回购股份》等相关规定，回购期限届满或 者回购股份已实施完毕的，应当在两个交易日内披露回购结果暨股份变动公告。 现将公司回购股份的具体情况公告如下： 一、回 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][5]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 57.34 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a decline of 26.33% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 8.69 billion yuan, down 54.31% year-on-year [2][3]. - In Q3 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 11.20 billion yuan, a significant decrease of 48.76% year-on-year, with a net profit of -0.22 billion yuan, marking a decline of 106.30% [2][3]. - The revenue decline in Q3 was attributed to the transition of old and new products in the protein powder and Jianli Duo offline channels, as well as the company's proactive adjustment of less profitable products [3]. Revenue Breakdown - For the first three quarters of 2024, revenue from the main brand, Jianli Duo, Lifespace domestic, overseas LSG, and other brands were 31.94 billion yuan, 6.98 billion yuan, 2.71 billion yuan, 6.84 billion yuan, and 8.87 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year declines of -29.20%, -29.90%, -29.55%, -11.66%, and -20.65% [3]. - In Q3 2024, the revenue from these brands showed even steeper declines, with year-on-year changes of -54.43%, -62.53%, -41.78%, -27.21%, and -33.54% [3]. Profitability Analysis - The company's gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 67.93%, down 1.73 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 15.15%, down 9.28 percentage points year-on-year [4]. - In Q3 2024, the gross margin was 65.31%, a decrease of 2.64 percentage points year-on-year, and the net profit margin was -2.00%, down 18.27 percentage points year-on-year [4]. Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 7.44 billion yuan, 11.43 billion yuan, and 14.42 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with growth rates of -57.39%, 53.61%, and 26.17% [5]. - The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios (PE) for these years are projected to be 30, 19, and 15 times, respectively, with a market capitalization of 222 billion yuan [5].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a "Hold" rating for the company, indicating a neutral stance on its stock performance relative to the market index [9]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 5.734 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a decrease of 26.33% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 869 million yuan, down 54.31% year-on-year. In Q3 2024 alone, revenue was 1.120 billion yuan, reflecting a significant decline of 48.76% year-on-year, with a net profit turning negative at -22 million yuan [2][6]. - The operational challenges are attributed to brand performance, with major brands experiencing substantial revenue declines due to base effects, reduced offline channel traffic, product transitions, and inventory adjustments. The report anticipates improvements post-transition [6]. - The company is undergoing strategic adjustments, focusing on core products and channels, which may lead to better performance in 2025 as base effects ease [6]. Financial Summary - For 2024, the company is projected to generate revenues of 7.189 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 23.57%, with net profits expected to be 815 million yuan, down 53.30%. The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted at 0.48 yuan [6][8]. - The gross margin for Q3 2024 decreased by 2.64 percentage points to 65.31%, influenced by product transitions and reduced scale effects. The sales and management expense ratios increased significantly, leading to a gross profit margin decline [6]. - The company’s total assets are projected to be 14.929 billion yuan in 2024, with a debt ratio of 15.67% [8]. Brand and Channel Performance - In Q3 2024, the main brand, Jianli Duo, Lifespace, and overseas LSG brands reported revenues of 559 million, 107 million, 61 million, and 173 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year declines of 54.44%, 62.59%, 41.90%, and 27.31% [6]. - Revenue from offline and online channels in Q3 2024 was 480 million and 633 million yuan respectively, indicating a strategic shift towards focusing on sustainable products and profitable channels [6]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the aging population trend, despite the current operational pressures and strategic transition pains. Revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are 7.760 billion and 8.269 billion yuan respectively, with net profits projected to recover to 1.110 billion and 1.340 billion yuan [6][8].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Neutral" rating to the company, with a target price of 13.5 yuan, down from previous estimates [1]. Core Views - The company faces increasing operational pressure, with significant declines in revenue and profit margins. The report anticipates a need for adjustments and optimization in strategy moving forward [1][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported total revenue of 5.734 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 26.3%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 869 million yuan, down 54.3% year-on-year. In Q3 alone, revenue was 1.12 billion yuan, reflecting a 48.8% decline year-on-year, with a net loss of 22 million yuan [1][2]. - The gross margin for Q3 was 65.3%, a decrease of 2.6 percentage points compared to the previous year. The report highlights that the company's operating expenses have increased relative to revenue, leading to a significant drop in the net profit margin [1][2]. Business Dynamics - The report identifies two main product iterations and adjustments in online strategy as key factors contributing to the revenue decline. The offline demand remains weak, with a reported 20% drop in the pharmacy channel since the beginning of the year. Additionally, competition in online channels has intensified, impacting sales performance [1][2]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its core competitiveness and optimizing its product offerings. Plans include a promotional campaign to boost sales of major products and a strategic shift to decouple pricing strategies between online and offline channels [1][2]. Future Outlook - The report suggests that while the immediate operational pressures are expected to continue, there is potential for stabilization in revenue starting from Q2 2025 as the company completes its product iterations and adjusts its strategies [1][2]. - EPS forecasts for 2024-2026 have been revised down to 0.44, 0.67, and 0.76 yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 30, 20, and 18 times [1][2].

和跨境的品的表现由于大冒产品了这一些其实都是我们在整个这个线上渠道的这个一些竞争的这个格局里面能看到的一些这种趋势啊那针对这一些这个一些趋势变化呢公司在今年我们也是以这个提升整个经营质量为核心对我们的线上的一些业务 也是做了一定的调整调整的核心主要是将一些不可持续的品种还有盈利性甚至其实就是不盈利的一些平台和渠道进行了一些这种业务调整把更多的资源要聚集在我们的核心品种和核心渠道上面这个的话对我们的线上的收入其实是产生了比较大的影响 因为今年大家可以看虽然电商整个电商线上我们还有双位数的增长但是其实主要的增量来源都是来自于抖音像阿里和京东的话其实基本上都是中个位数的增长主要的来源在抖音的话整个行业还是有超过50%以上的增长 所以这样的一个渠道但本身对于我们这种可能品牌自播占比又比较小的这一类它还是一个比较高度依赖这个超投以及这种费用啊信息流的这种模式的话它其实比较难去做这个盈利的一些这个形成盈利的这种模式吧所以我们其实在这一块的投入和这个布局都是会更加的 谨慎和相应的资源也是做了一定的控制所以这个也就导致了我们比较难在增量最大的市场里面去获取更多的市场份额所以这是我们线上这一块的这些举措 那线上的这些表现,那针 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a current price of 13.47 CNY [4]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and profit for Q3 2024, with total revenue of 11.2 billion CNY, down 48.8% year-on-year, and a net profit of -0.2 billion CNY, indicating a shift from profit to loss [1][2]. - The company is facing increased competition and slower-than-expected progress in upgrading its core products, leading to greater revenue declines across its brands [1]. - The gross margin has been declining, with Q3 2024 gross margin at 65.31%, down 2.64 percentage points year-on-year, and the overall net profit margin is under pressure due to rising sales and management expenses [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 57.3 billion CNY, down 26.3% year-on-year, and a net profit of 8.7 billion CNY, down 54.3% year-on-year [1]. - The main brand "汤臣倍健" generated 31.94 billion CNY in revenue, down 29.20% year-on-year, while the joint care brand "健力多" saw a revenue of 6.98 billion CNY, down 29.9% year-on-year [1]. - The company’s online channel revenue decreased by 23.36% year-on-year, while offline channel revenue fell by 29.08% year-on-year, indicating a broader industry trend of declining sales [1]. Profitability and Cost Structure - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 67.93%, with a projected decline for the full year due to expected lower performance in Q4 [2]. - The sales expense ratio increased to 42.33% for the first three quarters, reflecting higher costs associated with maintaining market presence amid declining revenues [2]. - The net profit margin for Q3 2024 was -1.6%, a significant drop of 18.22 percentage points year-on-year, indicating severe profitability challenges [2]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecasts for 2024 to 2026 have been revised downwards to 7.68 billion CNY, 10.60 billion CNY, and 12.44 billion CNY, representing reductions of 38%, 26%, and 21% respectively [2]. - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are projected at 30x for 2024, 22x for 2025, and 18x for 2026, reflecting the company's position as a leader in the dietary supplement industry despite current challenges [2].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Accumulate" [2][4]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 5.73 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 26.3%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 54.3% to 870 million yuan, and the net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses fell by 55.1% to 810 million yuan. In Q3 2024, the revenue was 1.12 billion yuan, down 48.8% year-on-year, with a net profit of -20 million yuan, a decline of 106.3% [1][2]. - The decline in revenue is attributed to weak consumer demand, intensified price competition, and the need to digest old inventory of key products. The main brand and Lifespace experienced significant revenue declines of 54.4% and 62.6% respectively in Q3 2024 [1]. - The gross margin in Q3 2024 decreased by 2.6 percentage points to 65.3%, primarily due to increased price competition and rising raw material costs. The company’s selling, administrative, R&D, and financial expense ratios increased year-on-year, reflecting the impact of declining revenue [1]. - Looking ahead to Q4 2024, the company expects reduced revenue growth pressure as old inventory is digested, and new product launches may help clarify the profit chain across channels. The company is also focusing on optimizing its expense allocation model to improve efficiency [1]. Financial Summary - For the years 2024 to 2026, the company is projected to achieve net profits of 810 million yuan, 1.21 billion yuan, and 1.40 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of -53.6%, +48.9%, and +15.7% [2][3]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 0.48 yuan, 0.71 yuan, and 0.82 yuan respectively [3][4]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are estimated at 28, 19, and 16 times respectively [2][3].