Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating with a target price of 33.90 CNY, while the current price is 28.56 CNY [2][12]. Core Views - The report highlights a positive trend in new orders and an acceleration in CMC (Chemistry, Manufacturing, and Controls) business, indicating a favorable long-term growth outlook [3][12]. - The company has seen a significant increase in new orders, with a year-on-year growth of over 20% in 2024, particularly in laboratory services and CMC [12]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024 is projected at 12.276 billion CNY, reflecting a 6.4% increase from 2023, while net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 1.793 billion CNY, up 12.0% [5][12]. - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025 has been adjusted to 0.98 CNY, down from a previous estimate of 1.10 CNY, with a new forecast for 2027 set at 1.43 CNY [12]. - The company’s revenue from laboratory services is expected to be 7.05 billion CNY in 2024, with a gross margin of 44.9% [12]. Order Trends and Client Structure - The report notes a continued improvement in new order trends, with a 35% increase in CMC new orders and a 15% increase in laboratory services new orders [12]. - The client structure is improving, with revenue from the top 20 global pharmaceutical companies growing by 26.9%, accounting for 18% of total revenue [12]. Market Performance - The stock has shown a 37% increase over the past 12 months, outperforming the Shenzhen Composite Index by 28% [10]. - The company’s market capitalization stands at 50.785 billion CNY, with a total share count of 1.778 billion shares [6].

事件：公司发 布2024 年年报，实现营业收入122.76 亿元（+6.39%），归属于上市公司股东的净利润为 17.93 亿元（+12.01%），归属于上市公司股东的扣除非经常性损益的净利润为11.08 亿元 （-26.82%），Non-IFRSs 经调整归母净利润16.07 亿元（-15.6%）。 盈利预测和估值。根据公司2024 年经营情况，我们对盈利预测进行调整，预计2025 年至2027 年公司营 业收入分别为137.06 亿元、154.11 亿元和171.82 亿元，同比增速分别为+11.7%、+12.4%和+11.5%；归 母净利润分别为17.14 亿元、20.84 亿元和24.83 亿元，同比增速分别为-4.4%、+21.6%和+19.1%，以3 月 31 日收盘价计算，对应PE 分别为27.9 倍、23.0 倍和19.3 倍，维持 "买入"评级。 风险提示：地缘政治因素导致公司海外业务经营出现波动；全球生物医药行业投融资持续低迷。 盈利能力有望逐步提升，经营质量持续改善。分季度看，2024 年Q1-Q4各季度Non-IFRSs 净利率分别为 12.7%、12.0%、13.0%和14.4%，呈 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the company, 康龙化成, has maintained a steady growth in revenue and profit throughout the year, with an accelerating revenue growth rate quarter by quarter. The adjusted profit for Q4 2024 is expected to recover [6][10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported a revenue of 11,538 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 12.4%. The net profit was 1,601 million yuan, reflecting a 16.5% increase year-on-year. For 2024, the revenue is projected to be 12,276 million yuan, a 6.4% increase, and the net profit is expected to reach 1,793 million yuan, up 12.0% year-on-year [5][6]. Business Segment Performance - **Laboratory Services**: Revenue reached 7,047 million yuan in 2024, growing by 5.8% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 44.4%. The segment saw a 15%+ increase in new orders [6]. - **CMC Business**: Generated 2,989 million yuan in revenue, a 10.2% increase, with a gross margin of 33.1%. New orders grew by 35%+ [6]. - **Clinical Research Services**: Revenue was 1,826 million yuan, up 5.1%, with a gross margin of 12.8%. The segment faced some margin pressure due to increased competition [6]. - **Large Molecule and Cell & Gene Therapy Services**: Revenue declined to 408 million yuan, down 4.1%, with a negative gross margin of 50.1% due to construction investments [7]. Financial Forecasts - The company forecasts revenues of 14,098 million yuan in 2025, 16,104 million yuan in 2026, and 18,250 million yuan in 2027, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 14.8%, 14.2%, and 13.3% [5][10]. - The expected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1,928 million yuan, 2,356 million yuan, and 2,914 million yuan, with growth rates of 7.5%, 22.2%, and 23.7% respectively [10]. Valuation - The report suggests a reasonable valuation range for the company at 32.53 to 37.96 yuan per share, based on a projected PE ratio of 30-35 times for 2025 [10].

民生证券认为，中国本土医药创新逐渐进入收获期，国际化进程持续加速，继续重点看好医药创新主线，同时医药板块基本面持续向上复苏，同时看好医药 消费主线。 截至2025年4月1日 10:13，国证生物医药指数(399441)强势上涨4.51%，成分股荣昌生物(688331)上涨12.12%，康龙化成(300759)上涨7.80%，泰格医药 (300347)上涨7.42%，昭衍新药(603127)，百克生物(688276)等个股跟涨。生物药ETF(159839)上涨4.41%，最新价报0.36元，盘中成交额已达2151.28万元，换 手率3.71%。 数据显示，杠杆资金持续布局中。生物药ETF最新融资买入额达100.25万元，最新融资余额达977.29万元。 创新药：联邦制药GLP-1/GIP/GCG三靶药物授权诺和诺德，恒瑞医药Lp(a)口服小分子授权MSD，看好国产创新药BD出海方向，建议继续关注具有BD出海 潜力的标的。CXO：国内需求逐步回暖，海外需求平稳向上，海内外产业共振，看好板块龙头企业逐季度订单和报表的持续兑现带来的估值修复。医药上 游供应链：海内外制药需求逐步回暖，伴随2025年生命科学产业链的收并 ...

Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 12.28 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.4% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 1.79 billion yuan, up 12.0% year-on-year, while the adjusted Non-IFRS net profit was 1.61 billion yuan, down 15.6% year-on-year [1] Revenue and Profit Trends - Quarterly revenue showed a recovery trend, with Q1 to Q4 revenues of 2.67 billion, 2.93 billion, 3.21 billion, and 3.46 billion yuan respectively, indicating a year-on-year change of -2.0%, +0.6%, +10.0%, and +16.1% [1] - The adjusted Non-IFRS net profit for Q1 to Q4 was 340 million, 350 million, 420 million, and 500 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of -22.7%, -28.8%, -13.2%, and +1.7% [1] Segment Performance - Laboratory services generated 7.05 billion yuan in revenue, accounting for 57.4% of total revenue, with a gross margin of 44.9% [2] - CMC services achieved 2.99 billion yuan in revenue, representing 24.4% of total revenue, with a gross margin of 33.6% [2] - Clinical research services reported 1.83 billion yuan in revenue, making up 14.9% of total revenue, with a gross margin of 12.8% [2] Market Dynamics - The company experienced a significant increase in new CMC orders, with a year-on-year growth of over 35% [2] - The company successfully commercialized two innovative drug formulations in China and received FDA pre-approval inspection for its Ningbo API production facility [2] Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 1.73 billion, 2.04 billion, and 2.40 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 28, 24, and 20 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company maintains a "Buy" rating for Hong Kong stocks and raises the target price to HKD 20, while upgrading the A-share rating to "Buy" with a target price of RMB 32 [1][5]. Financial Performance - For Q4 2024, the company's revenue reached RMB 12.276 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, aligning with the upper end of the previous profit forecast [2]. - Adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 1.607 billion, down 15.6% year-on-year, closely matching the median of the prior profit forecast [2]. - Q4 2024 revenue was RMB 3.458 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 16.1% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7.6% [2]. - The adjusted non-IFRS net profit for Q4 2024 was RMB 499 million, up 1.7% year-on-year and 19.7% quarter-on-quarter [2]. Segment Performance - CMC (Contract Manufacturing and Consulting) services led revenue growth in Q4 2024, achieving a year-on-year growth rate of 26.9% and a quarter-on-quarter growth rate of 26.4% [3]. - Laboratory services also showed significant growth, with a year-on-year increase of 14.9%, although it experienced a slight decline of 1.0% quarter-on-quarter [3]. - Clinical research services saw a year-on-year growth of 9.5% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 12.4%, despite ongoing pricing pressures [3]. - The CGT (Cell and Gene Therapy) segment continued to show weakness, with both revenue and gross margin declining year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter [3]. Future Outlook - The company expects revenue growth of 10%-15% in 2025, primarily driven by CMC and laboratory services [4]. - Management anticipates potential improvements in profit margins due to sustained revenue growth and no significant additional costs expected [4]. - The new order value for CMC services is projected to grow over 35% year-on-year, while laboratory services are expected to see a growth of over 20% year-on-year [4]. Target Price Adjustments - The target price for Hong Kong stocks has been raised to HKD 20, while the A-share target price has been adjusted to RMB 32, reflecting an 80% premium over the Hong Kong target price [5]. - The adjusted non-IFRS net profit estimates for 2025E and 2026E are RMB 1.79 billion and RMB 2.26 billion, respectively, due to slight adjustments in gross margin forecasts [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has shown a steady recovery with revenue growth accelerating quarter by quarter, and new orders have increased robustly [3][4] - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 12.276 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.793 billion yuan, up 12.0% year-on-year [3][4] - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is adjusted to 1.771 billion, 2.274 billion, and 2.782 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.00, 1.28, and 1.56 yuan [3][4] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024 Q4, the company achieved operating revenue of 3.459 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.2% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7.7% [3] - The adjusted Non-IFRS net profit for 2024 Q4 was 500 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.8% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 19.8% [3] - The laboratory services segment generated revenue of 7.05 billion yuan in 2024, up 5.8% year-on-year, while the CMC business achieved revenue of 2.99 billion yuan, a 10.2% increase year-on-year [4] Business Segment Performance - The clinical research services segment generated revenue of 1.83 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 5.1% [5] - The new orders in the laboratory services segment grew by 15% year-on-year, while the CMC segment saw a strong growth of over 35% in new orders [4] - The new business segments of large molecules and CGT generated revenue of 410 million yuan in 2024, a decline of 4.2% year-on-year [5] Valuation Metrics - The company's projected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 27.3, 21.2, and 17.4 respectively [3][7] - The projected revenue growth rates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 11.2%, 13.9%, and 14.6% respectively [7] - The gross margin is expected to improve from 34.2% in 2024 to 38.7% in 2027 [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has shown a steady recovery with revenue growth accelerating quarter by quarter, and new orders have increased robustly [3][4] - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 12.276 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.793 billion yuan, up 12.0% year-on-year [3][7] - The company expects net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 to be 1.771 billion, 2.274 billion, and 2.782 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.00, 1.28, and 1.56 yuan [3][7] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024 Q4, the company achieved operating revenue of 3.459 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.2% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7.7% [3] - The adjusted Non-IFRS net profit for 2024 Q4 was 500 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.8% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 19.8% [3] - The laboratory services segment generated revenue of 7.05 billion yuan in 2024, up 5.8% year-on-year, while the CMC business achieved revenue of 2.99 billion yuan, a 10.2% increase year-on-year [4] - The clinical research services segment reported revenue of 1.83 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 5.1% [5] Order Growth and Market Position - The company experienced a robust growth in new orders, with a year-on-year increase of over 20% in 2024 [3] - The CMC segment saw a strong growth in new orders exceeding 35% in 2024 [4] - The company is positioned to benefit from the gradual recovery in the global biopharmaceutical industry [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [3]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 12.28 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.79 billion yuan, up 12.0% year-on-year [1]. - The CMC segment showed significant quarterly growth, with new orders accelerating, indicating a strong market position and future revenue potential [7]. - The company is expected to see a revenue growth of 10-15% in 2025, with projected revenues of 13.74 billion yuan, 15.55 billion yuan, and 17.87 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [7][8]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company reported a total revenue of 12.28 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 44.4%, reflecting a slight increase of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year [7]. - The CMC segment generated revenue of 2.99 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 10.2% and a gross margin improvement from 27.3% in Q1 to 38.4% in Q4 [7]. - Clinical research services faced short-term profitability pressure, but are expected to stabilize in 2025, with a revenue of 1.83 billion yuan in 2024, up 5.1% year-on-year [7]. - The company’s adjusted net profit for 2024 was 1.61 billion yuan, down 15.6% year-on-year, with expectations of recovery in subsequent years [1][8]. Market Position and Growth Potential - The company has seen a record high in overseas client visits and a significant increase in new orders, with a year-on-year growth of over 20% in new contracts [7]. - The report highlights the company's core competitiveness as a leading global CRO service provider, with a strong outlook for continued growth in the CMC business [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [4] Core Views - The company's performance in 2024 met market expectations, with a revenue of 12.276 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.39%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.793 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.01% [1][2] - The company has seen a significant increase in new orders, with new order amounts growing over 20% year-on-year, indicating a strong foundation for future performance growth [2][3] - The company is expected to benefit from a global economic recovery, with adjusted revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 reflecting an upward trend in performance [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 12.276 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.4% and a net profit of 1.793 billion yuan, reflecting a 12.0% increase [8] - The adjusted net profit for 2024 is projected to be 1.607 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.6% compared to the previous year [2] - The company’s Q4 2024 revenue reached 3.458 billion yuan, marking a 16.1% year-on-year increase [2] Order Growth - The company reported a record high in overseas customer visits in 2024, with new orders showing an accelerating trend [2] - New orders for laboratory services and CMC services grew by 12%+ and 32%+ respectively in the first three quarters of 2024 [6] Future Outlook - The company has provided a revenue guidance of 10%-15% growth for 2025, supported by the rapid increase in orders and ongoing cost reduction efforts [2] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 14.016 billion yuan, 16.405 billion yuan, and 19.454 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS estimates of 1.00 yuan, 1.24 yuan, and 1.56 yuan [3][8]