证券研究报告 拐点已现，积极配置 ——CXO 2024&2025Q1业绩综述 行业评级：看好 2025年05月14日 | 分析师 | 郭双喜 | 王帅 | | --- | --- | --- | | 邮箱 | guoshuangxi@stocke.com.cn | wangshuai@stocke.com.cn | | 电话 | 19801116960 | 13548094491 | | 证书编号 | S1230521110002 | S1230523060003 | 1 1、股价复盘： 2、财务分析： 投资要点 ➢ 本土：业绩、订单&AI是主线。 2024.12.31至2025.04.30，医疗研发外包指数上涨0.82%，跑赢医药生物（申 万）指数0.64pct，其中药明生物（+31.55%） 、药明合联（+23.65%） 、泓博医药（+16.11%） 、凯莱英 （+7.77%）、药明康德（+7.50%）表现较好。 95% ➢ 海外：业绩分化，CDMO更强劲。2024.12.31至2025.04.30，Lonza及LABCORP领涨。从指引看跨国CXO公 司只有Lonza对CDMO业务（胶囊与健康原料CHI ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic pharmaceutical industry is experiencing a slowdown in investment and financing, leading to a gradual decline in market demand growth, which is impacting the CXO sector, resulting in intensified competition and challenges for development [1] Summary by Category Industry Overview - In Q1 2025, among 29 listed CXO companies, five, including WuXi AppTec and Kanglong Chemical, reported revenues exceeding 1 billion yuan, indicating a mixed performance across the sector [1][2] - 17 companies achieved year-on-year revenue growth, while 12 companies saw declines ranging from 0.6% to 40.32% [1] Financial Performance - WuXi AppTec led the sector with a net profit of 3.672 billion yuan, followed by Kailai Ying and Kanglong Chemical with approximately 300 million yuan each; however, eight companies, including Nanmo Bio and Boteng Co., reported losses [1][2] - Year-on-year, 18 companies saw net profit growth, while 11 experienced declines, with the largest drop reaching 431.11% [1] Market Dynamics - The international business is becoming a focal point for domestic CXO companies, with WuXi AppTec reporting 6.38 billion yuan in revenue from U.S. clients, a 28.4% increase, while revenue from Chinese clients decreased by 1.3% [3][4] - Kanglong Chemical's revenue from North American clients was 2.003 billion yuan, up 16.81%, indicating a strong focus on the North American market despite global trade uncertainties [4] Growth Opportunities - The CXO industry is expected to benefit from increased R&D investments and outsourcing penetration, with predictions indicating that by 2030, the scale of drug R&D and production outsourcing services in China could reach 482.3 billion yuan [5][6] - Companies like Kanglong Chemical reported a more than 10% increase in new order amounts in Q1 2025, reflecting a positive trend in order reserves [6] Competitive Landscape - The performance of leading companies is showing significant differentiation, with some like WuXi AppTec experiencing substantial order growth, while others like Tigermed are facing challenges [3][7] - Despite pressures, Tigermed reported a 20% increase in new contract amounts, indicating resilience in securing new business [7] Future Outlook - The CXO sector is transitioning from a focus on cost advantages to a dual barrier of technology and globalization, with companies expected to enhance their positions in the market as they convert order reserves into revenue [8]

Core Viewpoint - The recent policy announced by Trump to align U.S. drug prices with the lowest global prices could lead to a significant decrease in prescription drug prices in the U.S., potentially by 30% to 80%, raising concerns among pharmaceutical companies, especially those exporting to the U.S. [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - As of May 13, 2025, the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Pharmaceutical and Healthcare Composite Index (930965) rose by 2.42%, with notable increases in stocks such as BeiGene (06160) up 4.15% and Innovent Biologics (01801) up 3.14% [1] - The Hong Kong Pharmaceutical ETF (159718) opened high and increased by 2.04%, with a latest price of 0.70 yuan, and a one-month cumulative increase of 3.32% [1] - The CSI Pharmaceutical and Medical Device Innovation Index (931484) increased by 0.87%, with stocks like East China Pharmaceutical (000963) rising by 2.23% [4] Group 2: Trading Volume and Liquidity - The Hong Kong Pharmaceutical ETF had a turnover of 1.72% during the trading session, with a transaction volume of 4.0999 million yuan, and an average daily transaction volume of 95.7602 million yuan over the past month [1] - The latest scale of the Medical Innovation ETF (516820) reached 1.588 billion yuan [4] Group 3: Index Composition - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Pharmaceutical and Healthcare Composite Index accounted for 60.54% of the index, including BeiGene (06160) and WuXi Biologics (02269) [5] - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Pharmaceutical and Medical Device Innovation Index represented 66.51% of the index, featuring companies like Hengrui Medicine (600276) and WuXi AppTec (603259) [8]

股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年4月30日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 康龍化成（北京）新藥技術股份有限公司 (於中華人民共和國註冊成立的股份有限公司） 呈交日期: 2025年5月7日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | H | | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 03759 | 說明 | H股 | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 301,537,125 | RMB | | 1 | RMB | | 301,537,125 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | 0 | | | | RMB | | 0 | | 本月底結存 | | | 301,537,125 | RMB | | 1 | RMB | ...

Core Viewpoint - The impact of the U.S. "reciprocal tariffs" on Chinese pharmaceutical companies is limited, with many companies reporting normal operations and minimal effects on their business [1][2][4][7][12]. Group 1: Company Responses - Heng Rui Pharmaceutical reported that overseas sales account for only 2.56% of its revenue, indicating that U.S. tariffs have a minimal impact on its business [1]. - Han Yu Pharmaceutical stated that it has a diversified market presence across North America, Asia, Europe, and South America, which mitigates risks from single market policy changes [2]. - Bai Yang Pharmaceutical noted that its supply chain is globally diversified, and the impact of tariffs is minimal [3]. - WuXi AppTec acknowledged that tariffs will have some impact but emphasized their optimized supply chain and management practices to minimize effects [4]. - Kangtai Biological confirmed that it has no products exported to the U.S. and is focusing on markets along the Belt and Road [5]. Group 2: Industry Trends - The medical device industry in China is rapidly developing, with companies like Mindray Medical actively seeking alternatives for U.S. imported raw materials [5]. - Companies are increasingly focusing on domestic production and local supply chains to counteract potential tariff impacts [6][8]. - The vaccine industry in China is evolving, with companies like CanSino Biologics transitioning from followers to leaders in vaccine technology [8][9]. - The overall sentiment among Chinese pharmaceutical companies is that the current tariff situation presents an opportunity for domestic substitution and innovation [10][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5]. Core Views - The company's Q1 2025 revenue of 3.099 billion yuan represents a year-on-year growth of 16.03%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 306 million yuan, up 32.54% year-on-year [1][2]. - The report indicates that the company's revenue is in line with market expectations, and future performance is expected to show gradual quarter-on-quarter improvement [2]. - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027, with expected revenues of 14.077 billion yuan, 16.473 billion yuan, and 19.528 billion yuan, respectively [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the laboratory business generated 1.857 billion yuan in revenue, a 15.7% increase year-on-year, while the CMC business saw revenue of 693 million yuan, up 19.1% [2]. - The adjusted net profit for Q1 2025 was 349 million yuan, reflecting a 3.14% increase year-on-year [1][2]. - The gross margins for the laboratory and CMC businesses improved to 45.54% and 30.44%, respectively, with year-on-year increases of 140 basis points and 254 basis points [2]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates a continued upward trend in performance, supported by a rapid increase in new orders, which grew over 10% year-on-year in Q1 2025 [2]. - The company maintains its revenue guidance for 2025 at a growth rate of 10% to 15% [2]. Valuation and Earnings Forecast - The report adjusts the earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025-2027 to 0.98 yuan, 1.22 yuan, and 1.54 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 24, 19, and 15 times based on the closing price of 23.52 yuan per share on April 29, 2025 [3][8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - The company reported a strong recovery in Q1 2025, with revenue and profit both achieving double-digit growth. Q1 revenue reached 3.099 billion, a year-on-year increase of 16.03%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 306 million, up 32.54% year-on-year [4][6] - All major business segments experienced growth, with laboratory services revenue at 1.857 billion (up 15.74% year-on-year) and a gross margin increase to 45.54%. CMC (small molecule CDMO) services revenue was 693 million (up 19.05% year-on-year) with a significant gross margin improvement to 30.44% [7] - The company is seeing strong growth from European clients, with revenue from North America and Europe increasing by 16.81% and 26.57% year-on-year, respectively. Revenue from global top 20 pharmaceutical companies grew by 29.05% year-on-year [7] - New orders are accelerating, with Q1 2025 new orders up over 10% year-on-year, and the company maintains its full-year guidance of 10%-15% revenue growth for 2025 [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - The company forecasts total revenue of 13.795 billion for 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 12.4%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 1.819 billion, reflecting a growth rate of 1.4% [6][9] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 1.02 for 2025, with a gross margin forecasted to improve to 35.8% [6] - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 12.1% for 2025, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 23, 20, and 17 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [6][7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [3][7]. Core Views - The company has shown consistent growth in laboratory services over the past five quarters, with a significant increase in new orders, particularly in the CMC segment, indicating a positive outlook for revenue growth [7]. - The company expects a revenue growth of 10-15% for the full year 2025, supported by strong order trends and the gradual realization of CMC business [7]. - The financial projections for 2025-2027 indicate a steady increase in revenue and net profit, with expected revenues of 137 billion, 155 billion, and 179 billion respectively, and net profits of 19 billion, 22 billion, and 26 billion [7][10]. Financial Data and Valuation - For 2025, the company is projected to achieve total revenue of 137.46 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 12% [2]. - The adjusted net profit for 2025 is estimated at 18.56 billion, reflecting a 16% increase compared to the previous year [2][10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be 1.07, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 20.5 [2][11]. Revenue Breakdown - Laboratory services revenue for Q1 2025 reached 18.6 billion, showing a year-on-year growth of 15.7% [7]. - The CMC segment generated 6.9 billion in revenue for Q1 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 19.1% [7]. - Clinical research services reported revenue of 4.5 billion in Q1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14.2% [7]. Shareholder Information - The total market capitalization of the company is approximately 41.4 billion, with a circulating market value of 33 billion [3]. - The major shareholder holds a 14.07% stake in the company [3]. Financial Ratios - The company’s return on equity (ROE) stands at 13.3%, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 39.8% [3][11]. - The projected net profit margin for 2025 is 13.8%, indicating a stable profitability outlook [11].

Core Viewpoint - The impact of the U.S. tariff policy on Chinese pharmaceutical companies is relatively limited, with many companies reporting normal operations and minimal effects from the tariffs [1][2][3][4][5]. Company Responses - Heng Rui Pharmaceutical stated that overseas sales account for only 2.56% of its revenue, indicating that U.S. tariffs will have a minimal impact on its business [1]. - Han Yu Pharmaceutical emphasized its diversified market layout, which mitigates risks from single market policy changes, and reported no significant impact from the tariffs [2]. - WuXi AppTec acknowledged that tariffs would have some effect but deemed it manageable, highlighting their optimized supply chain and global presence [3]. - Kang Tai Biological reported no exports to the U.S. and is focusing on markets along the Belt and Road, indicating a strategic shift to other regions [4]. - Mindray Medical confirmed that while some raw materials are imported from the U.S., they are taking measures to ensure supply safety and view the tariff impact as a one-time issue [4]. Industry Trends - The Chinese vaccine industry is rapidly developing, with companies like CanSino Biologics transitioning from followers to leaders in vaccine technology, focusing on domestic innovation [6][7]. - The overall sentiment among companies is that the tariff policy presents an opportunity for domestic product substitution, with many firms prepared to adapt to changing market conditions [5][8]. - Companies are increasingly focusing on technological innovation and expanding into emerging markets to counteract potential supply chain disruptions caused by tariffs [5][6][7].

Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 3.099 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 16% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 306 million CNY, reflecting a growth of 32.5% year-on-year [2] - Adjusted net profit was 349 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth rate of 3.1%, which is slower than revenue growth [2] Group 2: Business Segment Performance - Laboratory services generated revenue of 1.857 billion CNY, up 15.7% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 45.5%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points [4] - CMC (small molecule CDMO) services reported revenue of 693 million CNY, a growth of 19.1%, with a gross margin of 30.4%, up 2.5 percentage points [4] - Clinical research services achieved revenue of 447 million CNY, marking a 14.2% increase [4] - Revenue from large molecule and cell & gene therapy services was 99 million CNY, reflecting a growth of 7.9% [4] Group 3: Operational Insights - The strong operating cash flow reached 853 million CNY, a year-on-year increase [2] - The company’s workforce increased compared to the same period in 2024 due to new hires [2] - The second phase of the small molecule CDMO in Shaoxing is under construction, with two workshops expected to be operational by the end of 2025 [6] Group 4: Market Dynamics - Over 90% of the small molecule CDMO business comes from overseas clients, indicating a strong international market presence [7] - The company’s laboratory chemical services are expanding in scope, driven by industry recovery and new technology developments [5]