三只松鼠股份有限公司 第三届监事会第十六次会议决议公告 本公司及监事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假记 载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 一、监事会会议召开情况 三只松鼠股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）第三届监事会第十六次会议通知 于 2024 年 10 月 18 日以电子邮件等方式通知全体监事。监事会会议于 2024 年 10 月 28 日以现场方式召开。会议由监事会主席孙芳女士主持，会议应到监事 3 名， 实到监事 3 名，董事会秘书列席本次会议。本次会议出席人数、召开程序、议事内 容均符合《中华人民共和国公司法》等相关法律、规范性文件和《三只松鼠股份有 限公司章程》的规定。 二、监事会会议审议情况 与会监事经过讨论，以投票表决的方式审议了以下议案： 证券代码：300783 证券简称：三只松鼠 公告编号：2024-054 经审核，监事会认为：董事会编制和审核公司 2024 年第三季度报告的程序符 合法律、行政法规、中国证监会和深圳证券交易所的相关规定，报告内容真实、准 确、完整地反映了公司的实际情况，不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗 漏。 具体内容详见公司 2024 年 10 月 ...

Key Points Industry/Company 1. **Company in Focus**: Three Squirrels [doc id='1'] 2. **Industry**: Not specified [doc id='1'] Core Views and Arguments 1. **Significant Change**: The company has undergone a significant change over the past year [doc id='1'] 2. **Close Communication**: The analyst has been in close communication with the company throughout the year [doc id='1'] 3. **Investment Logic**: The analyst aims to share the investment logic for Three Squirrels [doc id='1']

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a significant increase in profitability, with a projected net profit of 338-342 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 99.13-101.43% [1] - The company has shown strong performance in Q3, with an expected net profit of 48.1-52 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 200.45-224.81% [1] - The ongoing reforms and supply chain innovations are contributing to improved profitability, with a focus on cost control and revenue growth through a multi-channel strategy [1][2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company anticipates a net profit of 48.1-52 million yuan, with a non-recurring profit of 10.9963-14.0963 million yuan, primarily from government subsidies [1] - The company expects to achieve a net profit of 400 million yuan for the full year 2024, with a high confidence level in meeting this target [2] - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 10.306 billion, 13.254 billion, and 16.037 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 45%, 29%, and 21% [5] Profitability Metrics - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to increase from 9% in 2023 to 21% by 2026 [7] - The gross margin is expected to remain stable at around 24% from 2024 to 2026 [7] - The net profit margin is projected to improve from 3% in 2023 to 4% by 2026 [7] Market Performance - The company's stock has outperformed the CSI 300 index, with a 1-month return of 50.3%, a 3-month return of 20.7%, and a 12-month return of 40.4% [1] - The current stock price is 25.01 yuan, with a 52-week price range of 14.68-30.38 yuan [3] Strategic Initiatives - The company is implementing a "one product, one chain" supply chain strategy, which is enhancing cost control and maintaining price advantages [1] - The D+N multi-channel strategy is driving revenue growth and optimizing overall cost structure [1][2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a significant increase in net profit for Q3 2024, with estimates ranging from 48 to 52 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 200.45% to 224.81% [1] - The revenue for Q3 2024 is projected to grow by over 20% year-on-year, with online channel revenue expected to increase by approximately 20% to 25% [1] - The company is actively embracing the trend of cost-effective consumption, with a target of 10 billion yuan in revenue for the year appearing achievable [1] Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, the company anticipates a net profit of 3.38 to 3.42 billion yuan for the first three quarters, reflecting a growth of 99.13% to 101.43% year-on-year [1] - The projected net profit for 2024 is 4.07 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 85.2% [3] - The company expects to achieve total revenues of 10.41 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 46.3% [3] Profitability Metrics - The net profit margin for Q3 2024 is estimated at 2.47%, an increase of 1.5 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to rise to 14.9% in 2024, up from 8.7% in 2023 [3] - The gross profit margin is expected to improve from 23.3% in 2023 to 23.4% in 2024 [3] Revenue and Earnings Forecast - The company forecasts total revenues of 13.89 billion yuan in 2025 and 17.75 billion yuan in 2026, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 33.5% and 27.7% [3] - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to increase from 0.55 yuan in 2024 to 2.15 yuan in 2026 [3] Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on enhancing its supply chain efficiency and organizational restructuring to improve profitability [1] - The online channel strategy, particularly through platforms like Douyin, is expected to drive significant growth in sales [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, indicating a strong performance relative to market benchmarks [2][7][18]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in net profit for Q3 2024, with an expected net profit of 48.1 to 52 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 200.45% to 224.81% [1][2]. - The company's strategic focus on "high-end cost performance" has led to sustained improvements in operational efficiency and profitability, with a notable reduction in online marketing expenses [1][2]. - The company has successfully implemented supply chain innovations and channel strategies, particularly through platforms like Douyin, which have contributed to a favorable cost structure and enhanced product competitiveness [1][2]. Financial Performance Summary - The company expects total revenue for 2024 to reach approximately 10.55 billion yuan, with a projected net profit of 414.19 million yuan, reflecting an 88.45% increase year-on-year [9][10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at 1.03 yuan, with projected PE ratios of 24, 18, and 14 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [2][9]. - The company has shown a consistent growth trend over the past five quarters, indicating a robust recovery and operational transformation [1][2]. Strategic Initiatives - The company has initiated a stock incentive plan aimed at achieving ambitious revenue targets of 11.5 billion, 15 billion, and 20 billion yuan for the years 2024 to 2026, reflecting management's confidence in future growth [2][9]. - The focus on enhancing distribution channels, particularly in the snack food sector, is expected to drive long-term growth, with current distribution contributing only 13% to total revenue [1][2]. Market Position - The company operates in the snack food industry, with a strong brand presence and a diverse product portfolio including nuts, dried fruits, and baked goods [5][9]. - The total market capitalization of the company is approximately 9.75 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of 6.8 billion yuan [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 34 to 41 million yuan for Q3 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 200.45% [1] - The company's profitability has shown significant improvement, driven by structural changes and a high-end cost-performance strategy that enhances product competitiveness while maintaining stable gross margins [1][2] - The company has successfully completed the first round of offline distribution, with positive market feedback and a strong competitive position for its cost-effective products [1] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2022 was 7,293 million yuan, with a projected increase to 10,188 million yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 43.2% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise from 129 million yuan in 2022 to 419 million yuan in 2024, indicating a growth rate of 90.7% [2] - The company's gross margin is projected to stabilize around 23% in the coming years, with a return on equity (ROE) expected to increase from 5.5% in 2022 to 14.3% in 2024 [2][3] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to grow from 0.32 yuan in 2022 to 1.05 yuan in 2024 [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 48.1 to 52 million yuan in Q3 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 200.45% to 233.60% [1]. - The company has demonstrated significant improvements in profitability due to structural changes and a high-end cost-performance strategy, which has enhanced product competitiveness while maintaining stable gross margins [1][2]. - The offline distribution has shown good initial sales performance, and the company is expected to continue increasing its market penetration and share due to strong brand recognition and competitive pricing [1][2]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2022 was 7,293 million yuan, with a projected increase to 10,188 million yuan in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 43.2% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise from 129 million yuan in 2022 to 419 million yuan in 2024, indicating a year-on-year growth of 90.7% [2]. - The company's gross margin is projected to stabilize around 23.2% in 2024, down from 26.7% in 2022 [2]. - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from 5.5% in 2022 to 14.3% in 2024 [2]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 0.32 yuan in 2022 to 1.05 yuan in 2024 [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company has achieved significant profit growth, driven by its commitment to a high-end cost-performance strategy [1] - The company is advancing structural reforms and continuously optimizing its cost structure [1] - The long-term confidence in the company's high-end cost-performance strategy is strong, with expected EPS growth from 0.89 to 1.54 yuan from 2024 to 2026 [1][3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of 338-342 million yuan for Q1-Q3 2024, representing a 99% year-on-year increase [1] - The expected net profit for Q3 2024 is 48-52 million yuan, showing a 200% increase year-on-year [1] - The company anticipates a non-recurring profit of 7.2-7.5 million yuan, mainly from government subsidies [1] Revenue and Growth Projections - The company's main revenue is projected to grow from 7,115 million yuan in 2023 to 10,136 million yuan in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 42.5% [3] - The net profit is expected to increase from 220 million yuan in 2023 to 355 million yuan in 2024, indicating a growth rate of 61.7% [3] Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on a "D+N" omnichannel strategy, enhancing distribution and product competitiveness [1] - It is innovating and upgrading its supply chain with a "one product, one chain" approach, which is expected to stabilize overall gross margins [1] - The organization is undergoing transformation to create a more agile and responsive network structure, aimed at capturing dynamic market opportunities [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Cautious Recommendation" rating for the company [3][5]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 338 to 342 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 99% to 101%. The non-recurring net profit is projected to be 262 to 269 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 207% to 215% [2]. - The company is focusing on a high-end cost-performance strategy to respond to terminal demand, with structural changes in business, supply chain, and organization driving growth. The "D+N" collaborative approach is enhancing channel performance, leading to continuous revenue growth across all channels [2]. - The company is expected to see significant profit growth driven by scale effects and supply chain efficiency improvements, with a stable overall gross margin. The non-recurring profit for Q3 2024 is estimated to be between 11 to 14 million yuan [2]. - The company is strengthening its high-end cost-performance barrier, with positive factors expected to be released in Q4 2024, including strong demand for nut gift boxes during the Mid-Autumn Festival and orderly distribution of products in offline channels [2]. Financial Forecasts - The company’s projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 10,209.42 million yuan, 13,316.63 million yuan, and 17,311.62 million yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 43.50%, 30.43%, and 30.00% [4][8]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 401.28 million yuan in 2024, 564.94 million yuan in 2025, and 752.29 million yuan in 2026, with profit growth rates of 82.58%, 40.78%, and 33.16% respectively [4][8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 1.00 yuan in 2024, 1.41 yuan in 2025, and 1.88 yuan in 2026, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 24, 17, and 13 [3][4].

股 票 研 究 公 司 更 新 报 告 证 券 研 究 报 告 国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 ——2024Q3 业绩预告点评 [table_Authors]訾猛(分析师) 021-38676442 zimeng@gtjas.com 登记编号S0880513120002 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------|-------|-------|-------| | | | | | | 陈力宇 ( 分析师 ) | | | | | 021-38677618 | | | | | chenliyu@gtjas.com | | | | | S0880522090005 | | | | 本报告导读： 公司"高端性价比"战略引领下，利润改善超预期，全渠道保持持续增长，线下分 销完成首轮铺市，未来增量可期。 投资要点： 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.10.11 利润超预期，奋进正当时 三只松鼠(300783) 食品饮料 [Table_Industry] /必需 ...