今天是我们第二会议汇报的一个时间点我们今天给大家分享的是我们最近发的三中新股的一个真正的报告这个三中新股我们认为它是临时转向当中今年相较于去年来的话变化比较大或者说是非常多的一个公司然后公司提出了高端性价比的一个战略 然后对于这种一个消费趋势进行一个非常有利的这种一个配合的一个迎合然后呢包括对于这种一个当下的这种一个消费的一个氛围和这种一个状态的一种把握那公司内部的话也做了一系列的这种一个供应链呀然后包括这种一个渠道啊这方面的整顿和这种一个调整那从这个最终的一个结果来看的话 披露的一个半沿途异地来看,预告来看的话,整体的效果就是非常的明显的。那在这种过程当中的话,就是军心的话就是比较明显的经济的一个改变和改进。那我们也就知道,就是整个实验版当中的话,投资了很多军心啊。其实更多的时候还是来自于就是军事管理层做的一个战略战术上面的一个调整,因为我们都知道,例如说是这个, 整个的赛道就在这里了,然后当这个因素发生变化的时候,就可以把这种一个原理的权利也就发挥出来。 那我们对于后续来说的话公司的话就是在这种一个大的这种一个品牌ID的一个支撑之下然后依托量化零食和这种一个零食市场这种一个发展的一个趋势呢依然有一个比较大 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [4][12]. Core Views - The company's "high-end cost-performance" strategy has shown results, with four consecutive quarters of revenue and net profit growth since Q3 2023 [4][12]. - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 50.4 to 51 billion yuan in the first half of the year, representing a year-on-year increase of 74.19% to 76.27% [1]. - The second quarter of 2024 is projected to yield revenue of 13.94 to 14.54 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40.45% to 46.49% [1]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company specializes in the research, testing, packaging, and sales of its own brand of snack foods, including nuts, dried fruits, baked goods, and meat products [5]. Financial Performance - The company forecasts revenues of 107.99 billion, 136.97 billion, and 161.15 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 3.84 billion, 5.31 billion, and 6.65 billion yuan [12]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.96, 1.32, and 1.66 yuan for the same years [12]. Growth Channels - The company has seen significant growth in its online channels, particularly on Douyin, where revenue reached 12.04 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 118.51% [2]. - The company has opened over 220 community snack stores within a year, indicating strong potential in the bulk snack market [2]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on supply chain innovation and organizational transformation to enhance product competitiveness and activate all-channel business potential [4]. - A new sub-brand targeting children's healthy snacks has been established, achieving double-digit growth in the first half of the year [5]. Market Position - The company is positioned to benefit from the growing trend of social e-commerce and is expected to maintain a robust growth trajectory in this area [2][12].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [8] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue growth driven by online sales, with a forecasted revenue of 13.94 to 14.54 billion yuan for Q2 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 40.45% to 46.49% [8] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for Q2 2024 is projected to be between -0.23 to -0.16 billion yuan, indicating a year-on-year increase of 40.25% to 57.32% [8] - The company is actively embracing the trend of cost-effective consumption, with strong growth in the Douyin channel expected to continue [8] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 7.115 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.4%, followed by significant growth in subsequent years: 10.407 billion yuan in 2024 (up 46.3%), 13.891 billion yuan in 2025 (up 33.5%), and 17.745 billion yuan in 2026 (up 27.7%) [3][4] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to rise from 0.220 billion yuan in 2023 to 0.860 billion yuan in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 69.9% in 2023, 71.0% in 2024, 54.4% in 2025, and 48.3% in 2026 [3][4] - The gross margin is projected to improve slightly from 23.3% in 2023 to 24.2% in 2026 [3][4] Profitability and Valuation Metrics - The company’s P/E ratio is expected to decrease from 32.82 in 2024 to 8.95 in 2026, indicating improving valuation as earnings grow [3][4] - The ROE is projected to increase significantly from 8.7% in 2023 to 24.5% in 2026, reflecting enhanced profitability [3][4] - The EV/EBITDA ratio is expected to decline from 22.37 in 2024 to 6.28 in 2026, suggesting a more attractive valuation over time [3][4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [13] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve revenue of approximately 1.394 to 1.454 billion yuan in Q2 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 40.45% to 46.49% [13] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be between 0.023 to 0.016 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 40.25% to 57.32% [13] - The online channel, particularly through Douyin, is anticipated to contribute significantly to revenue growth, with an expected year-on-year increase of 173% [13] - The company's profitability is expected to improve due to supply chain efficiency and a comprehensive channel collaboration strategy [13] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for 2024 to 2026 are 10.407 billion, 13.891 billion, and 17.745 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 46.3%, 33.5%, and 27.7% respectively [14] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 0.376 billion, 0.580 billion, and 0.860 billion yuan for the same years, with year-on-year growth rates of 71.0%, 54.4%, and 48.3% respectively [14] - The gross margin is expected to improve from 23.3% in 2023 to 24.2% by 2026 [14] - Return on equity (ROE) is projected to increase from 8.7% in 2023 to 24.5% in 2026 [14]

请仔细阅读在本报告尾部的重要法律声明 2 非流动负债合计 269 307 345 383 市盈率 60.00 34.91 21.37 15.29 12.22 资料来源：wind、华西证券研究所 [Table_Author] 分析师：寇星 分析师：卢周伟 邮箱：kouxing@hx168.com.cn 邮箱：luzw@hx168.com.cn SAC NO： S1120520040004 SAC NO：S1120520100001 联系电话： 联系电话： 每股收益（元） 0.32 0.55 0.90 1.26 1.57 负债合计 3,029 3,512 4,512 5,144 证券研究报告|公司点评报告 [Table_Date] 2024 年 07 月 17 日 [Table_Title] 高端性价比战略落地，经营全面好转 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------|------------|-------------------------|-------------| | [Table_DataInfo] 评级： 买入 | | 股票代码 ...

2024 年 07 月 17 日 公 券 宏观经济下行风险、线上竞争加剧、社区零食店优质点位竞 争加剧、食品安全风险、渠道拓展不及预期、大单品开拓不 及预期等。 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------|-------|-------|-------------------------|-------|--------------------------------------|-----------------|-------------------------|--------|--------| | 公司盈利预测（百万元） \n资产负债表 | | | 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E | | 利润表 | | 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E | | | | 流动资产 : | | | | | 营业收入 7,115 10,136 13,586 17,604 | | | | | | 现金及现金等价物 | 328 | 540 ...

| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------|---------|-------|--------|----------------|------------------|-----------------------|-------|-------|--------|----------------|----------------| | [ 资产负债表 Table_Finance] \n会计年度 | \n2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 单位 : \n2025E | 百万元 \n2026E | 利润表 \n 会计年度 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 单位 : \n2025E | 百万元 \n2026E | | 流动资产 | 3,317 | 4,327 | 4,944 | 5,992 | 7,663 | 营业总收入 | 7,293 | 7,115 | 10,468 | 13,939 | ...

增长势能延续，百亿目标达成可期 2024 年 07 月 17 日 ➢ 品类渠道齐发力下营收延续高增，供应链及组织变革下盈利改善趋势延续。 三只松鼠（300783.SZ）2024 年半年度业绩预告点评 [盈利预测与财务指标 Table_Forcast] 收入端，24H1/24Q2 营收增速中枢落在 75%/43%，主要系：1）推进"一品一 链"的供应链持续创新升级，让产品更具竞争力，进一步激活全渠道业务潜能； 2）积极推动组织变革，通过"品销合一"协同的组织理念，充分激活组织潜能， 形成全新组织活力；3）"D+N"（短视频+全渠道）全渠道协同的打法进一步 夯实，全渠道均实现高质增长。在全新战略和理念下，子品牌小鹿蓝蓝通过"儿 童高端健康零食"的新定位以及实施"品销合一"组织变革后，24H1 实现双位 数增长并获得较好盈利。利润端，24Q2 归母净利润同比减亏 0.15-0.22 亿元， 扣非净利润同比减亏 0.25-0.31 亿元，公司于经营淡季实现减亏持续验证盈利改 善趋势，供应链及组织变革驱动下看好后续盈利提升。 ➢ 下半年展望积极，百亿目标达成可期。24 年公司股权激励目标为含税收入 达 115 亿元（达 ...

2024 年半年度业绩预告点评 事件: 7月16日,公司披露业绩预告,预计 24H1 收入 50.4~51.0 亿元,同 ● 比+74%~76%;归母净利润 2.86~2.92 亿元,同比+86%~90%;扣非净利润 2.25~2.31 亿元,同比+208%~215%。预计 24Q2 收入 13.9~14.5 亿元,同比 +40%~46%;归母净利润亏损 0.16~0.23 亿元,较去年同期减亏 0.15~0.22 亿 元,扣非净利润亏损0.32~0.38亿元,同比减亏 0.25~0.31亿元。 ● ● ● 2024年7月16日 谨慎推荐 维持 刘光意 网: liuguangyi_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130522070002 网: pengxiaoying_yj @chinastock.com.cn 相对沪深 300 表现图 三只松鼠 沪港300 30% -30% 22/07/18 22/12/18 23/05/18 23/10/18 24/03/18 www.chinastock.com.cn 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 正券|CGS 主要 ...

[Table_PicQuote] -28% -14% 0% 14% 28% 41% 2023-07 2023-11 2024-03 52周股价走势图 三只松鼠 深证成指 证 券 研 究 报 告 股 票 研 究 业绩符合预期，增长势能持续 | --- | --- | --- | |----------------|-------------------|--------------------| | | | | | [table_Authors | 訾猛 ] ( 分析师 ) | 陈力宇 ( 分析师 ) | | | 021-38676442 | 021-38677618 | | | zimeng@gtjas.com | chenliyu@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880513120002 | S0880522090005 | [Table_Summary 投资建议：维持"增持"评级。 ] 维持 2024-2026 年 EPS 预测为 0.99、 1.34、1.84 元，维持目标价 31.39 元。 业绩符合预期。公司发布业绩预告，预计 2024H1 实现营收 50.4~51.0 亿元、同比+7 ...