Market Concerns - ASML's clients are more worried about the global trade war than in April [1] Executive Commentary - CFO Roger Dassen commented on clients' increased concerns [1]

Group 1 - ASML Holding NV's shares are down 10.3% to $738.53 despite positive second-quarter results, as the company warns of potential no growth in 2026 due to macroeconomic and geopolitical concerns [1] - The stock has broken below the 40-day moving average, with support at the $737 level helping to limit further losses; year-to-date, the equity is up 6.2% [2] - Options trading activity has surged, with 24,000 calls and 25,000 puts exchanged, significantly higher than typical volume; the July 700 put and July 770 call are the most popular options [3]

Core Insights - ASML Holding N.V. (NASDAQ: ASML) experienced a significant increase of 28%, rising from €550 per share in April to €706 prior to the Q2 earnings call [1] Group 1 - The company management made a surprising announcement during the Q2 earnings call, which is expected to impact investor sentiment and stock performance [1]

Group 1 - The European Union has proposed a historic budget of nearly €2 trillion (approximately $2.3 trillion) for the next seven years to address various challenges, including increased global economic competition and rising defense needs [1][2] - The proposed budget represents a significant increase from the previous budget cycle of €1.2 trillion (equivalent to 1% of the EU's economic output) [1] - A substantial portion of the budget, approximately €589.6 billion, is allocated to a "Competitiveness, Prosperity, and Security Fund," with €450.5 billion designated for the EU's competitiveness development fund [1][2] Group 2 - The budget proposal will initiate a lengthy fiscal process requiring consensus from the European Parliament and the European Council, with a final agreement needed by the end of 2027 [2] - The budget aims to address the repayment of debts incurred during the COVID-19 pandemic, which could reach up to €25 billion annually starting in 2028 [2] - The proposal will determine spending priorities for the EU from 2028 to 2034, focusing on enhancing defense capabilities and competitiveness in response to economic threats from the U.S. and Asia [2] Group 3 - NATO projects that military spending in Europe will increase from 2% to 5% of GDP by 2035, indicating a significant rise in defense expenditures [3] - The long-term budget currently supports around 50 EU fund projects across various sectors, primarily funded by member state contributions [3] Group 4 - The proposed budget is expected to act as a liquidity booster for European and global stock markets, with significant public investment planned [4] - Key sectors likely to benefit from this budget include defense, semiconductor equipment, digital applications, renewable energy, and agricultural inputs [4] Group 5 - The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine has highlighted the need for European countries to strengthen their defense systems, particularly in drone technology and automated warfare systems [5] - European semiconductor equipment companies like ASML, ASM International, and BE Semiconductor are positioned to benefit from increased funding aimed at boosting chip manufacturing in Europe [5] Group 6 - The surge in global demand for AI chips is prompting major manufacturers like TSMC and Samsung to accelerate the construction of chip factories in Europe, leading to increased procurement of advanced semiconductor equipment [6]

I am a full-time analyst interested in a wide range of stocks. With my unique insights and knowledge, I hope to provide other investors with a contrasting view of my portfolio, given my particular background.If you have any questions, feel free to reach out to me via a direct message on Seeking Alpha or leave a comment on one of my articles.Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of ASML, NVDA, TSM either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this ar ...

Group 1 - ASML Holdings experienced a decline of over 10%, leading the drop in European stocks and the semiconductor sector [1] - The latest stock price for ASML is 633.90, down from an opening price of 669.50, marking a decrease of 72.20 or 10.23% [2] - Other notable companies in the European market, such as Novartis and LVMH, also saw minor declines, but ASML's drop was significantly larger [2] Group 2 - ASML's stock performance is indicative of broader trends affecting the semiconductor industry in Europe, with several companies in the sector also reporting declines [2] - ASM International NV and BE Semiconductor Industries reported decreases of 4.59% and 3.44% respectively, reflecting a challenging environment for semiconductor stocks [2]

ASML shares plunged after the Dutch supplier of chip-making equipment said it could no longer guarantee growth in 2026 amid uncertainty from President Trump’s tariffs https://t.co/RkS6QxcbES ...

ASML Holding shares are dropping in premarket trading Wednesday after the Dutch semiconductor-gear manufacturer said it couldn’t guarantee growth in the coming year. https://t.co/VnqZtcnCsD ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q2 2025, total net sales reached €7.7 billion, at the upper end of guidance, primarily due to the revenue recognition of one High NA system and additional upgrade business [5] - Net system sales were €5.6 billion, with €2.7 billion from EUV sales and €2.9 billion from non-EUV sales, driven by Logic at 69% and Memory at 31% [5] - Gross margin for the quarter was 53.7%, above guidance, driven by an increase in upgrade business and lower costs [6] - Net income in Q2 was €2.3 billion, representing 29.8% of total net sales, resulting in earnings per share of €5.9 [6] - Q2 net system bookings were €5.5 billion, with €2.3 billion from EUV and €3.2 billion from non-EUV, weighted towards Logic at 84% [7] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Installed base management sales for the quarter were €2.1 billion, above guidance [6] - The upgrade business has been strong, with expectations for installed base management revenue to grow more than 20% over last year [11] - The company expects overall EUV revenue growth of around 30% in 2025 compared to 2024 [11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue from China is expected to account for over 25% of total revenue in 2025, reflecting its proportion in the backlog [10] - The company anticipates strong demand related to AI for both logic and memory, with system revenue expected to increase in 2025 compared to 2024 [9][12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company continues to focus on advancing its EUV technology and building a comprehensive EUV portfolio to meet customer needs [15] - The strategy includes transitioning customers to advanced nodes and increasing the number of EUV layers, which is expected to drive growth [18] - The company is preparing for a potential growth year in 2026, but acknowledges uncertainties due to macroeconomic and geopolitical factors [12][56] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management highlighted that while demand remains strong, uncertainties related to macroeconomic and geopolitical developments are affecting customer capital expenditure decisions [12][56] - The company expects Q3 total net sales to be between €7.4 billion and €7.9 billion, with a gross margin between 50-52% [14] - Management remains optimistic about long-term growth driven by AI, despite short-term uncertainties [18][88] Other Important Information - The company paid a final dividend of €1.84 per ordinary share, with a total dividend for 2024 of €6.4 per ordinary share [7] - Share buybacks totaled around €1.4 billion in Q2 2025, bringing the total for the buyback program to €5.8 billion [8] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you elaborate on the EUV capacity and revenue expectations? - Management confirmed that EUV growth is expected to be about 30%, with the delta attributed to the strong performance of the installed base business [24][26] Question: How does the pricing strategy relate to tool value? - Management stated that the ability to increase tool prices is linked to improvements in productivity and performance, which enhances customer value [32] Question: What is the outlook for the DUV business? - Management indicated that the DUV business is expected to remain stable, with China showing stronger demand than previously anticipated [27][44] Question: What has changed in customer conversations regarding 2026? - Management noted increased customer caution due to tariff discussions and geopolitical uncertainties, impacting their investment decisions [56][76] Question: Can you provide insights on memory trends and HBM driven by AI? - Management confirmed that memory revenue remains strong, driven by HBM demand, and expects continued growth in this segment [102]

Group 1 - The article discusses the lithography machine industry, emphasizing its critical role in semiconductor manufacturing and the ongoing demand for advanced lithography technology [2][5][6] - ASML, Nikon, and Canon dominate the global lithography machine market, with ASML holding a significant lead, especially in the EUV lithography segment [42][44][49] - The global lithography machine market is projected to reach $293.7 billion by 2025, with EUV lithography machines expected to account for a substantial portion of this growth [37][40] Group 2 - The lithography machine's imaging quality is determined by the coordination of various systems and components, including the exposure light source, optical systems, and alignment systems [28][29][33] - The lithography machine has undergone five generations of technological evolution, with advancements in light source wavelengths significantly enhancing manufacturing capabilities [14][15][12] - The article highlights the urgent need for domestic lithography machine production in China due to ongoing export restrictions from the US, Japan, and the Netherlands [79][80][82] Group 3 - The demand for lithography machines in China is substantial, with the country being ASML's largest customer, accounting for 41% of its revenue in 2024 [55][66] - The article outlines the competitive landscape, noting that while ASML leads in high-end machines, Nikon and Canon focus on mid to low-end products [49][50][51] - The article emphasizes the importance of AI in driving the demand for advanced semiconductor products, which in turn boosts the lithography machine market [67][71]