美国 银行CEO莫伊尼汉表示， 人工智能正开始对美国经济产生更大影响。莫伊尼汉周一表示："今年AI 投资持续积累，明年及未来几年可能会成为更重要的增长动力。AI的影响正日益凸显，虽然不能将所 有增长归因于AI，但其边际效应已相当显著。"执掌该行近15年的莫伊尼汉称，美银预测美国明年经济 将保持强劲，预计增长2.4%，高于2025年约2%的预期。他表示，尽管劳动力市场开始趋软，但这更像 是就业市场的正常化调整。莫伊尼汉指出，鉴于AI产业由少数公司主导，即使行业过热后出现回调， 美银认为其对经济（包括消费者影响和失业风险）构成的威胁相对有限。 ...

Group 1: Economic Outlook - Bank of America predicts a strong US economy for next year, with expected growth of 2.4%, an increase from about 2% in 2025 [1] - The labor market is showing signs of normalization, despite starting to soften [1] Group 2: Impact of Artificial Intelligence - Artificial intelligence is increasingly impacting the US economy, with significant contributions expected in the coming years [1] - AI companies, including OpenAI, have attracted billions in funding, indicating strong investor interest in the industry [2] - Executives like Jeff Bezos have cautioned that AI spending may represent an "industrial bubble," but ultimately believe it will benefit society [2] Group 3: Risk Assessment - Bank of America sees limited risk to the economy from an overheated AI industry, as it consists of a narrow group of companies [3] - The bank evaluates leverage on AI projects to ensure comfort with the associated risks [3] Group 4: AI Utilization by Bank of America - Bank of America has been utilizing AI through its agent bot, Erica, which has expanded its capabilities from answering 200 to 700 questions since its launch in 2018 [4] - The bank plans to apply more automated and augmented intelligence across its businesses to enhance effectiveness [4]

Bank of America Chief Executive Officer Brian Moynihan said that artificial intelligence is starting to have a bigger impact on the US economy. https://t.co/BRUggIggMQ ...

Economic Outlook - The research team projects a strong US economy with 24% GDP growth in 2026 [1] - This growth is expected to be strong relative to both US history and other global economies, which are predicted to be flat to down [2] - The American consumer is driving the economy, with consumer spending up approximately 5% in Q3 and 4-45% in October-November [7][8] - Unemployment is normalizing at 45%-46%, which is considered strong relative to historical averages [11][12] AI Investment and Impact - AI investment is expected to be a bigger contributor to growth in the coming years [4] - The company has a total tech spending of approximately $13 billion annually, with around $4 billion allocated to new initiatives like AI [26] - The company is deploying AI to enhance both customer and teammate capabilities, with 200000 people using AI co-pilot by the end of the year [28] - In the near term, AI is primarily focused on process engineering to remove work, but over time, it is expected to enhance revenue generation [38][39] Bank of America Performance and Strategy - The company aims to drive more business by acquiring new clients and expanding relationships with existing ones [19][20] - The company's performance is sensitive to Federal Reserve interest rate policies, with a nominal rate environment of around 3% being favorable [21][24] - The company measures the return on investment for tech projects by assessing additional revenue or expense reduction, ensuring it exceeds the cost of capital [27] Risks and Upsides - The biggest upside risk is the potential for deregulation to further boost US economic growth [51] - Small businesses are concerned about tariffs and immigration policies affecting their ability to secure employees [53][54] - The company manages the risk of overinvestment in AI by carefully assessing the leverage and tenant quality of related projects [47][48]

It's been a very strong year for the markets, by the way. A very strong year for Bank of America in the markets. The economy has done well, not as well, perhaps, as the markets might indicate.Do you think the economy is in better shape because the markets are really over predicting what's going on. Look, as you look at our team, we have a great research team. As you know, David, their projection for 26 is a strong economy, 2.4% U.S. GDP growth.And that's strong not only on a relative basis to trend above 2% ...

美国银行首席执行官：对于市场预期的美联储利率水平，美国银行有能力实现良好运营。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Bank of America "Having extensive experience supporting clients and communities through various disasters over the years, Bank of America is uniquely positioned with the expertise, capital and connections to support LA's next chapter. Today's $10 million capital investment will be allocated by our CDFI partners who have been on the ground supporting these impacted communities. As Angelenos continue our long-term recovery following the January fires, our zero-percent capital helps the CDFIs offer lower inter ...

Group 1 - Bank of America plans to increase bonus payments for top-performing investment bankers by approximately 20%, while mid-level performers may receive similar payouts to last year [1][2] - The bank is finalizing year-end compensation figures, with average bonuses raised by 10% last year, and typically communicates bonus decisions in January [2] - The bank aims to grow its share of investment banking fees by 50 to 100 basis points over the next three to five years [2][3] Group 2 - Bank of America seeks to close the gap with competitors JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs in investment banking, focusing on retaining talent in M&A and increasing participation in larger transactions [3] - Revenue from the markets business is expected to increase by a high single-digit percentage to 10% [4] - Overall Wall Street bonuses for traders and investment bankers are projected to rise for the second consecutive year due to increased deal volume and market volatility [4]

Core Viewpoint - Emerging market bonds and stocks recorded double-digit percentage increases in 2025, with a general positive outlook for 2026 among investors [3][4]. Group 1: Performance of Emerging Markets - Emerging market local currency bonds rose by 18% and stocks increased by 26% in 2025, marking the first time since 2017 that emerging market stocks outperformed U.S. stocks [5]. - The yield spread between emerging market bonds and U.S. Treasury yields narrowed to its lowest level in 11 years [5]. - The Bloomberg Emerging Market Carry Index achieved a return of 16.71% in 2025, the best since 2009 [5]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - A recent survey by Bank of America involving 300 investors showed a lack of pessimism towards emerging markets, with a significant shift in sentiment [6]. - HSBC's December survey indicated that bearish views on emerging market prospects have completely disappeared, reaching a historical high in net bullish sentiment [6]. - U.S. ETFs focused on emerging market stocks attracted nearly $31 billion in 2025, while emerging market bond funds absorbed over $60 billion [6]. Group 3: Future Outlook for 2026 - Analysts maintain a positive outlook for emerging market assets in 2026, with expectations for high yields and diversification benefits from emerging market bonds [8]. - Focus areas for investment include Central and Eastern Europe, parts of Latin America (like Colombia and Brazil), and Asia (including India, the Philippines, and South Korea) [8]. - The Chinese stock market is expected to see investments in technology sectors and industries with clear advantages, such as the electric vehicle supply chain and renewable energy [8]. Group 4: Economic Context - The global economic growth for developed markets is projected to be around 1% to 1.5%, while emerging markets are expected to show relatively strong growth [10]. - The dollar is anticipated to remain under pressure due to policy divergence and trade tensions, although a short-term rebound is possible [10]. - The investment focus is expected to shift towards global diversification, with emerging markets showing improved fundamentals [10]. Group 5: Currency and Arbitrage Strategies - The trajectory of the U.S. economy is crucial for the sustained strong performance of emerging market currencies [11]. - Investors are advised to consider the potential for continued low volatility in emerging market currencies, which could impact overall returns [13]. - Major financial institutions like JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley predict significant inflows into emerging market bonds due to a weak dollar and the AI investment boom [11].

Core Viewpoint - Emerging market assets are expected to perform well in 2026, with a general consensus among institutions that there is little pessimism regarding these markets [1][4][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - Emerging market local currency bonds have risen by 18% and stocks by 26% in 2025, marking a significant recovery from previous years [3]. - Emerging market stocks have outperformed U.S. stocks for the first time since 2017, and the yield spread between emerging market bonds and U.S. Treasuries has narrowed to its lowest level in 11 years [3]. - The Bloomberg Emerging Market Carry Index has achieved a return of 16.71% this year, the best since 2009 [3]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - A recent survey by Bank of America involving 300 investors revealed that there is almost no pessimism towards emerging markets [4]. - HSBC's December survey indicated that bearish views on emerging markets have completely disappeared, with net bullish sentiment reaching a historical high [4]. - Strategas estimates that U.S. ETFs focused on emerging market stocks attracted nearly $31 billion in 2025, while emerging market bond funds absorbed over $60 billion [4]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - Emerging markets are expected to benefit from a more accommodative global financial environment and stable internal policies, with growth anticipated to outperform developed economies [6]. - The Asian region is highlighted as a key growth engine, with potential for pro-business governments emerging from elections in Latin America [6]. - Structural trends such as geopolitical reshuffling and supply chain restructuring are expected to favor emerging markets, particularly in Asia [5]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - Emerging market bonds are seen as attractive due to high yields and diversification benefits, with a focus on Central and Eastern Europe, parts of Latin America, and Asia [6]. - Investment in technology sectors and industries with clear advantages, such as the electric vehicle supply chain and renewable energy in China, is recommended [6]. - The outlook for Indian markets is positive, driven by the "Make in India" initiative, which is expected to boost manufacturing and infrastructure [6]. Group 5: Currency and Interest Rate Dynamics - The trajectory of the U.S. economy is crucial for the sustained strong performance of emerging market currencies, with expectations of a slowdown encouraging the Fed to maintain loose monetary policy [9]. - JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley predict that emerging markets will benefit from a weaker dollar and the investment boom in AI [9]. - Emerging market currency volatility is currently low, but there are concerns that unfavorable exchange rate movements could erase gains [11].