Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2024, with revenue rising approximately 12.0% year-on-year to RMB 73.592 billion and net profit attributable to shareholders increasing approximately 272.7% to RMB 9.155 billion. A mid-term dividend of HKD 0.59 per share was also announced [4] - The company's performance was driven by increased production and sales across its aluminum and alumina businesses, with aluminum alloy production rising 5.3% to 3.221 million tons and sales increasing 0.5% to 2.837 million tons. Alumina sales reached 5.507 million tons, up 2.4%, while aluminum processing products saw a production increase of 30.6% to 493,000 tons and sales up 35.9% to 379,000 tons [4] - The decline in coal and anode costs contributed to profit growth, with average coal prices dropping approximately 20.1% and 7.2% in the first two quarters of 2024. However, financial instruments' fair value changes negatively impacted profits by RMB 1.615 billion [4] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The company's stock price is currently at HKD 10.36, with a market performance comparison showing a relative decline against the Hang Seng Index [2][3] Financial Data and Forecasts - The company’s total revenue for 2024 is projected to be RMB 140.681 billion, with net profit forecasts of RMB 18.185 billion, RMB 20.251 billion, and RMB 21.309 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [6][7] - Key financial metrics include a projected EPS of RMB 1.92 for 2024 and a dividend payout ratio of 55.9% [5][6] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the company's strong profit performance, coupled with rising product prices and a favorable cost structure, enhances its investment value. The net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted to RMB 18.185 billion, RMB 20.251 billion, and RMB 21.309 billion respectively, maintaining the "Buy" rating [5][6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][5][13] Core Views - The company's performance has significantly benefited from the rise in aluminum prices, with a notable increase in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2024 [5][6] - The company has a stable production and sales of aluminum products, with a strong profit elasticity due to cost reductions and price increases [6][7] - The company continues to maintain a high dividend payout ratio, highlighting its long-term investment value [7] Financial Performance Summary - In the first half of 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 735.9 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 12%, and a net profit of 100.08 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 237% [5] - The company expects to achieve revenues of 1441.0 billion CNY, 1467.4 billion CNY, and 1490.5 billion CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 195.3 billion CNY, 195.7 billion CNY, and 195.8 billion CNY [5][9] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 2.06 CNY, 2.07 CNY, and 2.07 CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 5.0 for all three years [5][9] Production and Sales Overview - In the first half of 2024, the company produced 3.221 million tons of aluminum alloy products, a year-on-year increase of 5.3%, and sold 2.837 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.5% [6] - The sales price of aluminum alloy products increased by 1091 CNY/ton, while the sales price of aluminum processing products decreased by 243 CNY/ton [6] Dividend Policy - The company plans to distribute an interim dividend of 0.59 HKD per share for the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 73.5% [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as BUY with a target price of HKD 17.90, reflecting a potential upside of 73.4% from the current price of HKD 10.32 [2][19]. Core Insights - The company reported a net profit of RMB 91.6 billion for 1H24, representing a year-on-year increase of 270%, exceeding the previous estimate of 220% [1]. - The strong profit growth is attributed to the unexpected expansion in unit gross margins for aluminum and alumina, with aluminum unit gross margin doubling to RMB 4,277 per ton and alumina unit gross margin increasing by 230% to RMB 748 per ton [1]. - The proposed interim dividend is HKD 0.59 per share, indicating a payout ratio of approximately 57% [1]. Revenue and Profit Breakdown - Aluminum Alloy Products (67% of revenue): Revenue increased by approximately 7% year-on-year to RMB 49 billion, with sales volume up 0.5% to 284 million tons and average selling price (ASP) rising by 7% to RMB 17,379 per ton [1]. - Alumina Segment (22% of revenue): Revenue grew by about 20% year-on-year to RMB 16 billion, with sales volume up 2.4% to 5.5 million tons and ASP increasing by 17% to RMB 2,942 per ton [1]. - Aluminum Processing Products (10% of revenue): Revenue surged by approximately 34% year-on-year to RMB 7.58 billion, with sales volume up 36% to 3.79 million tons, although ASP decreased by 1% to RMB 20,027 per ton [1]. Price Sensitivity and Market Conditions - A 1% increase in aluminum prices is expected to enhance the company's earnings by approximately 4% [1]. - The latest Shanghai aluminum price rebounded from RMB 18,835 per ton to RMB 19,310 per ton since early August, with an average price of RMB 19,500 per ton at the end of the quarter, reflecting a 6% year-on-year increase [1]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for FY24 are estimated at RMB 142.33 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 6.5% [2]. - Adjusted net profit for FY24 is forecasted to be RMB 16.10 billion, representing a 40.5% increase compared to FY23 [2]. - The company is expected to maintain a P/E ratio of 9.8x for FY24, which is above its historical average of 6x [19].

19 Aug 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update China Hongqiao (1378 HK) Net profit 1H24 +2.7x YoY, beat expectations Hongqiao's net profit came in at RMB9.16bn (+2.7x YoY), which is better than the pre-announced profit growth of 2.2x in Jun. Excluding the fair value loss of convertible bonds (CB), the core net profit would be even higher at RMB10.5bn (+3.3x YoY). The strong profit growth was driven by higher-than-expected unit gross margin expansion for both aluminum (Al) (+ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Hongqiao (01378.HK) based on the expected increase in aluminum prices and significant cost reductions enhancing earnings elasticity [1]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 73.59 billion yuan for H1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 12%, and a net profit of 10.01 billion yuan, up 236.7% year-on-year, exceeding the previous profit forecast [1]. - The strong performance is attributed to rising prices of electrolytic aluminum and alumina, alongside a robust production capacity recovery in Yunnan [1]. - The company has a well-integrated industrial chain, with a total electrolytic aluminum capacity of 6.459 million tons and alumina capacity of 19.5 million tons, ensuring strong raw material supply [1]. - Future growth is supported by the transition to green energy, with a focus on hydropower in Yunnan, which is expected to enhance long-term development [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company produced 3.221 million tons of electrolytic aluminum, a 5.3% increase year-on-year, with alumina sales reaching 5.507 million tons, up 2.4% year-on-year [1]. - The average profit per ton for alumina in Q2 was 875 yuan, reflecting improved profitability in the sector [1]. - The mid-term dividend for H1 2024 is set at 0.59 HKD per share, totaling approximately 5.59 billion HKD, with a payout ratio of about 56% [1]. Future Outlook - The report highlights several future growth drivers, including the completion of the industrial chain integration, cost advantages from declining coal prices, and the strategic shift of electrolytic aluminum capacity to Yunnan [1]. - The company is also expanding its resource base by participating in a Guinea iron ore project, which is expected to provide additional returns [1]. - Forecasted net profits for 2024-2026 are 17.796 billion yuan, 20.065 billion yuan, and 21.985 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 5, 4, and 4 times [1].

证券分析师： 陈晨 S0350522110007 chenc09@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 王璇 S0350523080001 wangx15@ghzq.com.cn 研究所： 最近一年走势 相对恒生指数表现 2024/08/16 表现 1M 3M 12M 中国宏桥 -3.0% -11.3% 54.2% 恒生指数 -1.7% -10.0% -4.9% 市场数据 2024/08/16 当前价格（港元） 10.32 52 周价格区间（港元） 5.17-13.56 总市值（百万港元） 97,787.56 流通市值（百万港元） 97,787.56 总股本（万股） 947,553.84 流通股本（万股） 947,553.84 日均成交额（百万港元） 396.18 近一月换手（%） 323.02 其他：公允价值变动及减值对业绩有一定影响。根据公司公告，2024 年上半年公司其他开支 5.96 亿元和金融工具公允价值变动亏损 16.1 亿元，其他开支主要是物业、厂房和设备的减值亏损 5.3 亿元；金融 工具公允价值变动主要是可换股债券的衍生工具部分亏损 13.9 亿 元。若剔除两部分非经营性因素影响，公司业绩表 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6][9]. Core Views - The company reported significant growth in H1 2024, with revenue reaching 73.592 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.95%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 9.155 billion yuan, up 272.66% year-on-year [9]. - The revenue growth was driven by both price increases and higher sales volumes across its product lines, including electrolytic aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy processing products [9]. - The report highlights the company's integrated aluminum industry chain advantages, which are expected to lead to high earnings elasticity for the full year 2024 [9]. Financial Performance Summary - For H1 2024, the company achieved a gross profit margin of 24.2%, an increase of 15.2 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to lower costs of electrolytic aluminum and reduced management expenses [9]. - The company’s projected revenues for 2024-2026 are 132.79 billion, 133.16 billion, and 135.58 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 19.59 billion, 21.27 billion, and 22.59 billion yuan, reflecting growth rates of 70.93%, 8.58%, and 6.22% respectively [9][10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 2.07, 2.24, and 2.38 yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, with current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 4.99, 4.60, and 4.33 [9][10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Hongqiao (1378.HK) is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The report highlights a significant increase in both volume and price of aluminum products, leading to substantial growth in performance. The company achieved a revenue of 73.592 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 11.95%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 9.155 billion yuan, up 272.66% year-on-year, with a non-recurring net profit of 10.77 billion yuan, an increase of 352.68% [1] - The company continues to maintain a high dividend payout ratio, with an interim dividend of 0.59 HKD per share, a 73.5% increase, resulting in a dividend yield of 5.72% as of August 16, 2024 [1] - China Hongqiao is positioned as a leading integrated player in the aluminum industry, expected to enjoy high profit elasticity due to its comprehensive supply chain and production capacity [1] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2024, the company reported: - Revenue from electrolytic aluminum of 49.3 billion yuan, a 7% increase, with a gross margin of 24.6%, up 15.9 percentage points - Revenue from alumina of 16.2 billion yuan, a 20% increase, with a gross margin of 25.4%, up 16.5 percentage points - Revenue from aluminum processing of 7.6 billion yuan, a 34% increase, with a gross margin of 21.0%, up 7.4 percentage points [1] Production Capacity and Supply Chain - As of March 2024, the company has an annual alumina production capacity of approximately 19.5 million tons, with a self-sufficiency rate of 100%. The company also has a total electrolytic aluminum production capacity of 6.46 million tons per year [1] - The Guinea bauxite project ensures a stable supply of raw materials, while the company is also diversifying its bauxite supply sources [1] Profit Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 is as follows: - 2024: 19.081 billion yuan - 2025: 21.867 billion yuan - 2026: 23.947 billion yuan - Corresponding P/E ratios are projected to be 4.7, 4.1, and 3.8 respectively [2][3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Hongqiao (01378.HK) [2] Core Views - In the first half of 2024, China Hongqiao achieved a record high net profit attributable to shareholders of 9.15 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 272.7%, driven by rising aluminum and alumina prices and the company's efficiency improvements [1] - The company is expected to continue enhancing its performance through cost reduction and efficiency improvements, with a focus on expanding overseas markets and deepening collaboration with upstream and downstream partners [1] - The report highlights the company's strong dividend history and diversified financing channels, indicating robust operational stability [1] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for H1 2024 reached 73.59 billion yuan, up 12.0% year-on-year [1] - The company's alumina sales volume was 5.507 million tons, a 2.4% increase year-on-year, while aluminum alloy production was 3.221 million tons, with sales of 2.837 million tons, reflecting a 0.5% increase [1] - The average selling price of alumina (excluding tax) was 2,942 yuan/ton, up 16.9% year-on-year, while aluminum alloy prices increased by 6.7% to 17,400 yuan/ton [1] - The gross profit for H1 2024 was 17.8 billion yuan, a significant increase of 202.1% year-on-year [1] Future Projections - The report forecasts net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 19.375 billion yuan, 20.513 billion yuan, and 21.071 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 5.05, 4.77, and 4.64, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to peers [5]

证券研究报告 | 半年报点评 gszqdatemark 2024 08 17 年 月 日 中国宏桥（01378.HK） 铝行业高景气&提质增效，2024 年上半年利润创历史新高 2024 年上半年公司受益于"量价齐升"归母净利创历史新高，公司有望 通过降本增效持续增厚业绩。公司已于 8 月 16 日公布 2024 年上半年业 绩，2024 年上半年公司实现营收 735.9 亿元，同比+12.0%；实现归母净 利润 91.5 亿元，同比+272.7%；扣非归母净利润 107.7 亿元，同比 +352.7%；基本每股收益 0.97 元，同比+273%。净利润大幅增加主要系 铝及氧化铝价格增长及公司提质增效等影响。随着公司云南电解铝生产基 地搬迁完成，电解铝生产成本有望进一步下移，同时，铝价在国内供给刚 性及加息后周期维持高位预期，并有望伴随美联储降息及新能源相关绿色 用铝占比提升带来定价中枢上移，"量价齐升"持续增厚公司业绩弹性。 2024 年 H1 煤炭及预焙阳极价格同比-20.9%/-28.6%，公司铝合金生 产优势凸显。1）量：2024 年 H1 氧化铝销量 550.7 万吨，同比+2.4%； 铝合金产量 ...