智通财经APP获悉，世界钢铁协会发布了最新版(2025-2026年)钢铁短期需求预测报告(SRO)。该报告预 计 2025 年全球钢铁需求量将与 2024 年持平，达到约 17.5 亿吨;2026 年全球钢铁需求将温和反弹 1.3%，达到 17.72 亿吨。预计2025年中国钢铁需求将继续下降，降幅约为2.0%。这一预测意味着自 2021年以来主要由房地产市场持续低迷导致的需求下降趋势将有所缓和。预计2026年，随着房地产市场 的触底反弹，预计降幅将进一步放缓至1.0%。 世界钢铁协会市场研究委员会主席，西班牙钢铁行业协会(UNESID)首席经济学家Alfonso Hidalgo de Calcerrada在对本次预测结果发表评论时表示："尽管全球贸易战大幅升级且不确定性依然存在，但我们 谨慎乐观地认为，全球钢铁需求将在2025年触底反弹，并在2026年实现温和增长。这一积极预测基于全 球经济展现出的韧性、世界大多数主要经济体公共基础设施投资的持续强劲以及融资条件的预期宽松。 2026年的增长预期得到多个区域性强劲趋势的共同推动。预计中国钢铁需求的下降势头将有所放缓，与 此同时印度、越南、埃及和沙特阿拉伯等发 ...

Core Points - China has suspended iron ore imports from Australia, requiring BHP to sell at market prices and accept payment in RMB [1][3] - Australia exports approximately 700 million tons of iron ore to China annually, out of a total of 1.2 billion tons imported by China [3] - Historically, Australia held significant pricing power in the iron ore market, with mining costs around $30 per ton and selling prices ranging from $103 to $267 per ton, resulting in profit margins of 343% to 890% [5] - Chinese steel companies have struggled with low profit margins, often below 5%, which has impacted their ability to invest in R&D and improve employee welfare [5] Industry Developments - To gain pricing power, China has invested in iron ore projects in Guinea and Brazil, and has recently negotiated agreements with Russia for iron ore imports [5] - The establishment of the China Mineral Resources Group in 2022 aims to centralize iron ore procurement, preventing individual steel companies from negotiating prices independently [5] - The shift to RMB payments for bulk commodity purchases is seen as a challenge to US dollar dominance, prompting concern from the US [5]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. steel industry is central to Trump's vision for a new industrial economy, with tariffs imposed to strengthen domestic production and reduce reliance on imports [1] Group 1: Impact on U.S. Steel Industry - The U.S. has increased tariffs on steel and aluminum to 50%, affecting 407 product categories, including steel derivatives [1] - U.S. crude steel production showed a slight increase of 1.5% year-on-year in the first seven months of 2025, but the growth is modest compared to a 2.3% decline the previous year [3] - The average capacity utilization rate for U.S. crude steel reached 76.6%, indicating limited improvement [3] Group 2: Effects on China's Steel Industry - China's steel exports to the U.S. are minimal, with only 89,000 tons expected in 2024, representing 0.8% of China's total steel exports [2] - The potential for steel re-export through countries like Vietnam, South Korea, and Brazil is limited, accounting for only 4.5% of China's total steel exports if all were sourced from China [2] Group 3: Strategic Responses - The domestic steel industry should maintain a strategic approach, resisting panic and focusing on practical responses to tariffs [5] - Encouraging high-end steel and green steel exports through measures like export tax rebates is recommended [5] - The industry should align with national policies to accelerate the transition towards high-end, intelligent, and green steel production [5]

Core Insights - China's steel bar exports reached 1.59 million tons in July 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 77.2% [1] - The export value for steel bars was $894 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 48.2% [1] Export Data Summary - Export quantity of steel bars in July 2025: 1.59 million tons [1] - Year-on-year growth in export quantity: 77.2% [1] - Export value of steel bars in July 2025: $894 million [1] - Year-on-year growth in export value: 48.2% [1]

Core Insights - In July 2025, China's steel plate exports reached 6.13 million tons, representing a year-on-year increase of 19% [1] - The export value for the same period was $3.981 billion, showing a year-on-year growth of 7.2% [1] Export Data Summary - The export quantity of steel plates from China in July 2025 was 6.13 million tons, which is an increase of 19% compared to the previous year [1] - The corresponding export value was $3.981 billion, reflecting a growth of 7.2% year-on-year [1]

Core Insights - The report by Zhiyan Consulting highlights the growth in China's steel wire rod exports, with a notable increase in both quantity and value in July 2025 compared to the previous year [1]. Export Data Summary - In July 2025, China's steel wire rod export volume reached 240,000 tons, representing a year-on-year increase of 18.2% [1]. - The export value for the same period was $19.5 million, which reflects a year-on-year growth of 2.2% [1]. Industry Analysis - Zhiyan Consulting is recognized as a leading industry consulting firm in China, specializing in comprehensive industry research and providing tailored consulting services [1]. - The firm emphasizes its commitment to delivering in-depth industry research reports, business plans, feasibility studies, and customized services to empower investment decisions [1].

Group 1: Core Insights - Egypt has escalated anti-dumping measures against Chinese steel and aluminum products, imposing anti-dumping duties of up to 29% on cold-rolled, galvanized, and painted steel products [1] - Since 2021, Egypt has gradually imposed anti-dumping taxes on aluminum products, starting at 16.5% and currently reduced to 10.5%, significantly impacting exporting companies [1] Group 2: Trade Strategies - In the complex international trade environment, third-country transshipment trade has become a crucial strategy for Chinese companies, allowing them to circumvent high tariffs through neutral countries like Malaysia and Turkey [3] - Steel export companies are particularly affected by anti-dumping measures on cold-rolled and galvanized steel, and transshipment through Malaysia or Turkey can mitigate direct impacts [5] Group 3: Future Outlook - The future of Egypt's trade protection measures is expected to remain stringent, prompting Chinese steel and aluminum companies to diversify markets, ensure compliance in transshipment operations, and upgrade their industries to enhance competitiveness [5][6] - While third-country transshipment provides a temporary buffer, long-term success will depend on optimizing industry structure and adjusting market strategies [6]

Core Insights - The report by Zhiyan Consulting highlights the export performance of China's steel wire rod, indicating a slight increase in export volume but a decrease in export value [1] Export Performance - In June 2025, China's steel wire rod export volume reached 240,000 tons, representing a year-on-year increase of 3% [1] - The export value for the same period was $19.1 million, which reflects a year-on-year decline of 10.4% [1] Industry Analysis - Zhiyan Consulting is recognized as a leading industry consulting firm in China, specializing in comprehensive industry research and providing tailored consulting services [1] - The firm emphasizes its commitment to delivering in-depth industry reports and market insights to support investment decisions [1]

Core Insights - The report by Zhiyan Consulting highlights the significant growth in China's steel bar exports, with a quantity of 1.52 million tons in June 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 45.5% [1] - The export value for the same period reached 847 million USD, marking a year-on-year growth of 20.9% [1] Industry Overview - The data is sourced from Chinese customs, indicating a robust performance in the steel industry, particularly in the export segment [1] - Zhiyan Consulting is recognized as a leading industry consulting firm in China, specializing in comprehensive industry research and providing tailored consulting services [1]

Core Insights - In June 2025, China's steel plate exports reached 5.93 million tons, marking a year-on-year increase of 2.1% [1] - The export value for the same period was $3.741 billion, which represents a year-on-year decline of 7.4% [1] Export Data Summary - The export quantity of steel plates from China in June 2025 was 5.93 million tons [1] - The export value decreased to $3.741 billion compared to the previous year [1] - The year-on-year growth in export quantity contrasts with the decline in export value, indicating potential pricing pressures in the market [1]