1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives an investment rating of "Oscillation" for the iron ore market [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The recent rise in iron ore prices is mainly driven by the strengthened supply control expectations, which restricts the liquidity of some spot varieties. In the short - term, the price volatility increases. The post - holiday market focuses on post - holiday resumption of work and demand realization. After the Two Sessions, the demand is expected to improve marginally, and the iron water output is expected to rise significantly. The Iran conflict will increase the shipping cost expectations, providing short - term support for ore prices. However, in the medium - to - long - term, the price trend depends on the intensity of steel mill复产, the recovery rhythm of iron water output, and the actual realization of terminal demand. The de - stocking pressure under the high - inventory background will restrict the upward movement of prices. The positive spread runs strongly, and short - term negotiation progress needs to be monitored [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Market Data - **Futures**: The iron ore futures i2605 closed at 805 yuan/ton, and i2609 closed at 775.5 yuan/ton. The spread between i2605 and i2609 is 29.5 yuan [1] - **Spot**: The price of PB powder at Qingdao Port is 793 (-4) yuan/ton, and the price after converting to the standard product (factory warehouse) is 825 yuan. The optimal deliverable product, Newman powder, is 776 yuan after converting to the warehouse receipt (factory warehouse) [1] 3.2 Basis and Spread Data - **01 Basis**: For I2701, the basis is 758.0 on March 18, 2026, down 7.0 from March 17, 2026. The basis spread I01 - I05 is 18, and the basis rate is 2.34% [1] - **05 Basis**: For I2605, the basis is 811.0 on March 18, 2026, down 5.5 from March 17, 2026. The basis spread I05 - I09 is 32.0, and the basis rate is - 4.49% [1] - **09 Basis**: For I2609, the basis is 779.0 on March 18, 2026, down 6.5 from March 17, 2026. The basis spread I09 - I01 is 21.0, and the basis rate is - 0.37% [1] 3.3 Index and Import Profit Data - **Index**: Mysteel 65% index for the current month of Carajás fines increased by 0.68 to 107.10 on March 18, 2026; Mysteel 62% index for Newman powder one - month increased by 1.30 to 108.80; Mysteel 58% index for Jimbara powder two - month increased by 1.27 to 107.45 [1] - **Import Profit**: The import profit of Carajás fines decreased by 31 to - 22 on March 18, 2026; the import profit of Newman powder decreased by 20 to - 57; the import profit of Jimbara powder decreased by 24 to - 4 [1] 3.4 Inventory and Shipping Data - **Inventory**: The total iron ore inventory on March 13, 2026 is 17188, an increase of 70 compared to March 6, 2026. The Australian ore inventory is 8329, an increase of 245; the Brazilian ore inventory is 5105, a decrease of 215 [1] - **Shipping**: The Australian shipments to the world on March 13, 2026 is 2385, an increase of 115 compared to March 6, 2026; the Brazilian shipments is 572, a decrease of 3 [1] 3.5 Important News - In February 2026, China exported 463 million tons of steel sheets, a year - on - year decrease of 12.6%. From January to February, the cumulative export was 933 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.5% [1] - On March 18, the transaction volume of iron ore at major ports in China was 51.80 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.7%; the transaction volume of construction steel of 237 mainstream traders was 8.88 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.5% [1] - On March 18, the average cost of 76 independent electric arc furnace construction steel mills was 3403 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 7 yuan/ton, and the average profit was a loss of 86 yuan/ton [1] - From March 1 to 15, the retail volume of the national passenger car market was 56.1 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 21% and a month - on - month increase of 2%. Since the beginning of this year, the cumulative retail volume was 314 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 19% [1] - In early March, the output of key monitored coal enterprises was 6444 million tons, with a daily average output of 644 million tons. The daily average output increased by 38 million tons compared to the late February, a growth of 6.3%, and increased by 9 million tons year - on - year, a growth of 1.4% [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "oscillating operation" [2] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel price is expected to oscillate. Attention should be paid to the weekly fundamental data and the downstream demand situation, and the rebound height is limited [1][2] Group 3: Summary According to Related Contents Steel Export - In February 2026, China exported 4.63 million tons of steel sheets, a year - on - year decrease of 12.6%; from January to February, the cumulative export was 9.33 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.5% [1] Steel Production Cost and Profit - This week, after the blast furnace maintenance in Tangshan's mainstream sample steel mills ended, the cost decreased. The ex - factory price of common billet was 2,980 yuan/ton, and the steel mills were on the verge of profit and loss with reduced losses [1] - On March 18, the average cost of 76 independent electric arc furnace construction steel mills was 3,403 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 7 yuan/ton, and the average profit loss was 86 yuan/ton [1] Automobile Market - From March 1 - 15, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 0.561 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 21% and a month - on - month increase of 2%. Since the beginning of this year, the cumulative retail sales have been 3.14 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 19% [1] Steel Price Support Factors - Recently, the rise in raw materials has provided cost - side support for steel prices, and the rise of the black metal sector is also driven by inflation in the overall commodity market [1]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel and ore industry is "Oscillating, Slightly Bullish" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel and ore market is expected to oscillate. For specific varieties, the support and pressure levels are as follows: the support level for rebar is 3000, and the pressure level is 3200; for hot - rolled coils, the support level is 3180, and the pressure level is 3350; for iron ore, the support level is 750, and the pressure level is 840 [1] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - On Wednesday, rebar and hot - rolled coils rose first and then fell. Both steel and ore closed down at night [1] 3.2 Important News - The National Development and Reform Commission has launched a new batch of 13 landmark major foreign - funded projects with a planned investment of $13.4 billion, focusing on manufacturing and increasing support for the service industry [1] - In January - February 2026, China's cumulative steel exports were 15.591 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.1%; cumulative steel imports were 0.827 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21.7%; cumulative imports of iron ore and its concentrates were 210.023 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.0%; cumulative imports of coal and lignite were 77.222 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.5% [1] - In February 2026, China's steel plate exports were 4.63 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.6%; cumulative exports from January - February were 9.33 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.5%. In February, China's steel bar exports were 1.19 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.7%; cumulative exports from January - February were 2.32 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.9% [1] - Iran's largest natural gas field and some petrochemical facilities were attacked by the US and Israel, and Iran vowed to retaliate by attacking oil facilities in three Middle - Eastern countries. Qatar reported that an Iranian missile hit a natural gas hub, causing serious damage, and Iran also attacked a US - exclusive area of a refinery in Riyadh, causing a fire [1] - The Federal Reserve announced that it would maintain the federal funds rate target range between 3.5% and 3.75%, holding steady for the second consecutive time, in line with market expectations [1] 3.3 Market Logic - On the 18th, the market prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port remained stable. For example, 60.8% PB powder was 794 (unchanged), Super Special powder was 675 (unchanged), 61.6% PB lump was 905 (unchanged), Carajas powder was 953 (unchanged), and SPGF mixed powder was 764 (unchanged) [1] - On the 17th, Shanghai Zhongtian rebar was 3260, up 10; Shanghai Angang/Benxi hot - rolled coils were 3310, up 20 [1] - On the 18th, the spot market for port coke remained stable. The trading atmosphere in the domestic spot market was average. The volume of trade shipments at the two ports was stable compared to the previous working day, and the total inventory at the two ports was stable compared to the previous working day. Rizhao Port had 43 (unchanged), Qingdao Port had 69 (unchanged), and the total inventory was 112, a decrease of 2.3 compared to last week [1] 3.4 Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: Gradually reduce long positions in steel and ore [1] - Arbitrage trading: Continue to hold the strategy of going long on the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar. As of the night session on Wednesday, the spread was 173. It is recommended to raise the stop - loss level to a spread of 130 and set the take - profit level at around 200 [2] - For the ratio of rebar to iron ore, which was 3.87, it is recommended to opportunistically go long on the ratio (go long on rebar and short on iron ore), with the target of raising the ratio above 4. At the same time, pay attention to the possible impact of the later main contract roll - over [2]

Core Insights - The report by Zhiyan Consulting highlights the export performance of China's steel plate industry, indicating a stable export volume with a slight decrease in export value for November 2025 [1] Export Performance - In November 2025, China's steel plate export volume was 6 million tons, showing no year-on-year change [1] - The export value for the same period was $3.836 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 2.1% [1]

Industrial Sector - The production of raw materials has shown seasonal adjustments, with steel and building materials output declining this week[2] - The operating rate of petroleum asphalt and cement clinker has decreased, while the float glass operating rate has increased[2] - The operating rates for polyester in textiles and weaving have weakened seasonally, while the operating rates for full steel and semi-steel tires in the automotive sector have increased[2] Real Estate - New home sales in 30 major cities decreased by 34.7% year-on-year as of December 12, with a slight improvement of 1.0 percentage point compared to last week[2] - The second-hand housing listing price index fell by 0.60% month-on-month as of December 1, indicating a narrowing decline[2] Domestic Demand - Movie box office revenue remains high, with an average daily income of 171.45 million yuan, up 192.3% year-on-year[2] - Retail sales of major home appliances decreased by 22.5% year-on-year as of December 5, but improved by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous value[2] - The number of domestic flights increased by 2.1% year-on-year, while the Baidu migration index rose by 17.2% year-on-year[2] External Demand - The export container freight index increased by 0.3% week-on-week, with Shanghai and Ningbo's export container freight rates rising more rapidly[2] - Port cargo throughput grew by 2.9% year-on-year, while container throughput increased by 9.5% year-on-year[2] Price Trends - The South China industrial product index fell by 2.4%, with black raw material prices down by 2.6% and non-ferrous metal prices up by 0.5%[2] - The wholesale price index for agricultural products rose by 1.0% week-on-week, continuing to outperform the same period last year[2]

Core Insights - The report by Zhiyan Consulting highlights a significant decline in China's steel plate exports in October 2025, with a volume of 5.97 million tons, representing a year-on-year decrease of 22.6% [1] - The export value for the same period was $3.839 billion, which reflects a year-on-year drop of 21.7% [1] Industry Overview - The data is sourced from Chinese customs, indicating a trend of decreasing export performance in the steel industry [1] - Zhiyan Consulting is recognized as a leading industry consulting firm in China, specializing in comprehensive industry research and providing tailored consulting services [1]

Core Insights - The report by Zhiyan Consulting highlights a decline in China's steel plate exports in September 2025, with a total export volume of 6.4 million tons, representing a year-on-year decrease of 6.1% [1] - The export value for the same period was $4.023 billion, which reflects a year-on-year decline of 10.6% [1] Industry Overview - The data is sourced from Chinese customs, indicating a significant downturn in the steel industry, particularly in the export segment [1] - Zhiyan Consulting is recognized as a leading industry consulting firm in China, specializing in comprehensive industry research and providing tailored consulting services [1]

Core Insights - China's steel plate exports in August 2025 reached 5.63 million tons, representing a year-on-year decline of 15.1% [1] - The export value for the same period was $3.608 billion, which is a year-on-year decrease of 21.5% [1] Export Data Summary - The export quantity of steel plates decreased significantly compared to the previous year, indicating a potential downturn in demand or increased competition [1] - The decline in export value suggests that not only the volume but also the pricing of steel plates has been adversely affected [1]

Core Insights - In April 2025, China's steel plate exports reached 6.62 million tons, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.8% [1] - The export value for the same period was $4.282 billion, showing a year-on-year decline of 3.3% [1] Export Data Summary - The export quantity of steel plates from China in April 2025 was 6.62 million tons [1] - The year-on-year growth rate for export quantity was 6.8% [1] - The export value amounted to $4.282 billion [1] - The year-on-year change in export value was a decrease of 3.3% [1]

Core Insights - In July 2025, China's steel plate exports reached 6.13 million tons, representing a year-on-year increase of 19% [1] - The export value for the same period was $3.981 billion, showing a year-on-year growth of 7.2% [1] Export Data Summary - The export quantity of steel plates from China in July 2025 was 6.13 million tons, which is an increase of 19% compared to the previous year [1] - The corresponding export value was $3.981 billion, reflecting a growth of 7.2% year-on-year [1]