Core Viewpoint - ConocoPhillips (COP) is expected to report quarterly earnings of $1.99 per share, a 2% decline year-over-year, with revenues projected at $16.37 billion, reflecting a 13.1% increase compared to the previous year [1]. Earnings Estimates - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised downward by 19.1% over the past 30 days, indicating a reassessment by analysts [2]. - Changes in earnings estimates are crucial for predicting investor reactions, as empirical studies show a strong correlation between earnings estimate revisions and short-term stock performance [3]. Revenue Projections - Analysts estimate 'Revenues - Sales and other operating revenues' to be $15.85 billion, indicating a year-over-year increase of 14.4% [5]. - 'Revenues - Equity in earnings of affiliates' is expected to be $325.20 million, reflecting a decline of 22.8% from the prior year [5]. Sales and Operating Revenue Estimates - 'Sales and Other Operating Revenue - Natural gas liquids' is projected to reach $784.31 million, a 15.3% increase year-over-year [6]. - 'Sales and Other Operating Revenue - Natural gas' is expected to be $1.74 billion, indicating a decline of 7.6% from the previous year [6]. - 'Sales and Other Operating Revenues - Canada' is estimated at $993.19 million, a 6.1% increase year-over-year [7]. - 'Sales and Other Operating Revenues - Europe, Middle East and North Africa' is projected to be $1.61 billion, reflecting a 10.8% increase [7]. - 'Sales and Other Operating Revenues - Lower 48' is expected to reach $10.63 billion, indicating a 14.2% increase year-over-year [8]. Production Estimates - 'Natural gas liquids produced per day - Total company' is projected at 394.54 million barrels of oil, up from 279 million barrels in the same quarter last year [8]. - 'Natural gas produced per day - Total company' is expected to reach 4,038.14 million cubic feet, compared to 3,302 million cubic feet in the previous year [9]. - 'Total Production per day' is forecasted at 2,362.51 million barrels of oil equivalent, up from 1,902 million barrels in the same quarter last year [9]. - 'Crude oil produced per day - Total company' is estimated at 1,192.17 million barrels of oil, compared to 944 million barrels in the same quarter last year [10]. Price Estimates - The consensus estimate for 'Average Sales Price - Natural gas - Total company' is $5.28, compared to $5.02 in the same quarter last year [10]. Stock Performance - Over the past month, ConocoPhillips shares have returned +2.3%, while the Zacks S&P 500 composite has changed by +11.5% [12].

Core Viewpoint - ConocoPhillips (COP) is expected to report first-quarter 2025 results on May 8, with earnings estimated at $1.99 per share, reflecting a 2% decline year-over-year, while revenues are projected to increase by 13.1% to $16.4 billion [1][6]. Earnings Performance - COP has outperformed earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 2.1% [3]. - The company has a positive Earnings ESP of 0.83% and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), indicating a potential earnings beat [4]. Production and Pricing Factors - Average spot prices for WTI crude were $75.74, $71.53, and $68.24 per barrel in January, February, and March respectively, which likely supported COP's exploration and production activities [6]. - Total daily oil equivalent production volumes are forecasted to increase by 23% year-over-year, with a significant 33.2% rise expected in the Lower 48 region [7]. Stock Performance and Valuation - COP's stock has decreased by 27% over the past year, slightly better than the industry's 28% decline [8]. - The current trailing 12-month EV/EBITDA ratio for COP is 5.24, indicating it is undervalued compared to the industry average of 10.76 [9]. Strategic Moves - The acquisition of Marathon Oil has expanded COP's Lower 48 portfolio, adding over 2 billion barrels of resources and is expected to yield annual savings exceeding $1 billion within the next 12 months [12][15]. - The company's focus on exploration and production makes it more susceptible to oil price volatility compared to diversified majors like ExxonMobil and Chevron [15]. Industry Comparison - ExxonMobil reported first-quarter 2025 earnings of $1.76 per share, beating estimates but declining from $2.06 year-over-year, with revenues of $83.13 billion missing estimates [17][18]. - Chevron's adjusted earnings per share were $2.18, surpassing estimates but down from $2.93 year-over-year, with revenues of $47.6 billion also missing expectations [19][20].

Michael Fitzsimmons is a retired electronics engineer and avid investor. He advises investors to construct a well-diversified portfolio built on a core foundation of a high-quality low-cost S&P500 fund. For investors who can tolerate short-term risks, he advises an over-weight position in the technology sector, which he believes is still in the early stages of a long-term secular bull-market. For dividend income, and as a 4th generation oil & gas man, Fitzsimmons suggests investors consider a position in la ...

Core Viewpoint - OPEC+ plans to increase oil production, negatively impacting oil producers like ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips, while benefiting oil transport companies like Frontline due to increased demand for shipping services as oil prices fall [1][3][6]. Group 1: Impact on Oil Producers - ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips stocks are down 2.5% and 3.6% respectively following OPEC+'s announcement [2]. - Brent crude prices have decreased by 28% over the past year, contributing to the negative sentiment around oil producers [2]. - The increase in oil supply by OPEC+ is expected to lead to further price declines, which will negatively affect profits for ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips [4][3]. Group 2: Impact on Oil Transport Companies - Frontline's stock is up 3.9% as the demand for oil transport services is expected to rise due to falling oil prices [2][6]. - The company benefits from increased shipping needs as consumers seek to purchase cheaper oil, leading to higher demand for Frontline's services [7]. - Frontline is considered a cheaper investment option with a trailing earnings ratio of 7.7 and a generous dividend yield of 4.7% [8]. Group 3: Long-term Considerations - Despite the current sell-off, long-term investors may consider buying Exxon and ConocoPhillips stocks due to their respectable dividend yields of 3.7% and 3.4% respectively [9]. - Both companies are reasonably priced with trailing profit ratios of 14.1 for Exxon and 11.7 for Conoco, suggesting potential for future growth as demand rebounds [10].

Core Viewpoint - The energy sector is facing challenges due to macroeconomic uncertainty and commodity price volatility, but some companies are positioned to potentially exceed earnings expectations, which could positively impact their stock prices in the near term [1]. Sector Snapshot - Oil prices have decreased in Q1 2025, with West Texas Intermediate crude averaging $71.84 per barrel, down from $77.56 in Q1 2024, attributed to soft global demand, rising inventories, and increased non-OPEC+ production [2]. - U.S. natural gas prices have rebounded sharply, averaging $4.15 per MMBtu compared to $2.13 a year ago, driven by colder weather and growing LNG exports [2]. Earnings Expectations - S&P 500 energy firms are projected to report a 12.9% year-over-year decline in earnings and a 0.3% dip in revenues, indicating ongoing pressure on profit margins [3][5]. - This decline is an improvement from the 22.4% earnings drop in Q4 2024, but still reflects significant challenges for oil-centric companies [3][6]. Company Performance Insights - Some energy companies are expected to perform better due to effective cost management, operational efficiency, and a focus on natural gas, which may lead to earnings surprises [4][7]. - Energy Transfer (ET) has an Earnings ESP of +9.23% and a Zacks Rank 3, with earnings scheduled for release on May 6 [11][12]. - MPLX LP also has a +9.23% Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank 3, with earnings set to be released on May 6 [12]. - Pembina Pipeline (PBA) has an Earnings ESP of +2.93% and a Zacks Rank 3, with earnings scheduled for May 8 [13]. - ConocoPhillips (COP) has an Earnings ESP of +2.76% and a Zacks Rank 3, with earnings also scheduled for May 8 [14].

Economic Overview - The U.S. GDP declined at an annualized rate of 0.3% in Q1 2025, disappointing economists who had forecasted a growth of 0.4% [1] - Concerns about a slowdown in the economy are negatively impacting oil and gas stocks, with WTI crude oil prices down 1.4% to approximately $59.50 per barrel and Brent crude also down 1.4% to about $63.30 [2] Stock Performance - ConocoPhillips stock decreased by 2% and Chevron by 2.2%, while Cheniere Energy experienced a more significant drop of 3.6% [3] - The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a decrease in crude inventories by 2.7 million barrels, which contrasts with a previous report indicating an increase [4] Market Dynamics - The conflicting reports on crude supply are leading investors to focus on the GDP report, assuming that a shrinking economy will reduce oil demand and weaken future prices [5] - Wolfe Research downgraded Cheniere Energy to "peer perform," citing concerns over increased competition in the LNG market, which is contributing to its stock's poor performance [6] Investment Insights - The oil and gas industry is cyclical, characterized by cycles of undersupply and oversupply, necessitating a long-term investment perspective [7] - Among the stocks analyzed, Chevron appears to be the most attractive option, with a total return ratio of just over 1.0, a 4.9% dividend yield, and an expected growth rate of nearly 8% annually over the next five years [8][9] - ConocoPhillips has a lower P/E ratio than Chevron but offers a lower dividend yield of 3.4% and a growth rate of 6% [9] - Cheniere Energy is deemed unattractive, with a high P/E ratio of nearly 17, a low dividend yield of 0.8%, and expected earnings to decline over the next three years [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - ConocoPhillips experienced a slight decline in stock price following a downgrade in analyst recommendation from buy to neutral by Bank of America Securities, reflecting a shift in market sentiment towards a more cautious outlook for the energy sector [1][2]. Company Summary - ConocoPhillips' stock price fell by slightly over 1% on the day of the downgrade, contrasting with a 0.6% increase in the S&P 500 index [1]. - The price target for ConocoPhillips was reduced from $138 to $107 per share, indicating a more conservative outlook from the analyst [2]. Industry Summary - The analyst's report suggested a broader trend in the oil and gas sector, advocating for more defensive investment strategies amid a softening macroeconomy and disunity within OPEC [3]. - The current global economic climate, influenced by the U.S. tariff war with strategic trading partners, has led to increased caution regarding investments in the oil industry [5]. - Despite the cautious sentiment, there is a belief that the trade war may not be prolonged, presenting potential buying opportunities for established oil companies at relatively lower prices [5].

Group 1 - ConocoPhillips plans to lay off employees as part of cost control measures following its $23 billion acquisition of Marathon Oil [1] - The company is evaluating how to utilize existing resources more effectively and has informed employees about the expected layoffs, which are anticipated to occur in Q4 [1] - ConocoPhillips is the largest independent exploration and production company globally, with 10,300 employees and total assets of $97 billion as of September 30, 2024 [1] Group 2 - ConocoPhillips aims to raise $2 billion by selling non-core assets, including oil and gas properties acquired from Marathon Oil in Oklahoma [3] - Financial data shows ConocoPhillips' total revenue for 2024 is projected at $56.953 billion, a decrease of 2.77% year-over-year, with net income of $9.245 billion, down 15.62% year-over-year [3] - Chevron, another major U.S. oil company, announced layoffs of 15%-20% to reduce costs and streamline operations, with plans to achieve $2 billion to $3 billion in cost reductions by the end of next year [3]

Core Insights - The comparative analysis focuses on Antero Resources (AR) as a leading natural gas producer and ConocoPhillips (COP), which is primarily an oil producer, to determine which stock is better positioned in the current business environment [1] Group 1: Natural Gas vs. Crude Oil - Natural gas is recognized for producing lower emissions compared to crude oil and coal, making it a cleaner energy source [2] - The U.S. Energy Information Administration reports that burning natural gas emits 117 pounds of carbon dioxide per million British thermal units (MMBtu), significantly lower than the over 160 pounds emitted by distillate fuel oil [2] - Natural gas is increasingly being utilized as a transition fuel as companies shift towards renewable energy sources [3] Group 2: Regional Production Insights - Companies operating in the gas-rich Appalachian basin are better positioned than those in the oil-rich Lower 48 regions, which include the Eagle Ford, Bakken, and Permian Basin [4] - Antero Resources has premium drilling locations in the Appalachian region that can sustain production levels for decades, supporting the U.S.'s growing LNG export volumes [5][6] Group 3: Company Profiles - Antero Resources is among the top five natural gas and NGL producers in the U.S., with a low debt-to-capitalization ratio of 17.1%, indicating it is an investment-grade stock [6] - Approximately 75% of Antero Resources' produced natural gas is directed towards the export market, positioning it favorably in the expanding LNG sector [6][7] - ConocoPhillips derives over 50% of its production from crude oil, with a total production of 1,152 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (MBoE/D) in the Lower 48, where crude oil accounts for 52.3% [8] Group 4: Financial Performance and Valuation - Over the past year, Antero Resources has gained 13.3%, while ConocoPhillips has seen a decline of 29.2% [11] - Antero Resources trades at a trailing 12-month enterprise value to EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) ratio of 17.40, significantly higher than ConocoPhillips' ratio of 5.31, indicating a premium valuation for AR [14] - Earnings forecasts show Antero Resources is expected to experience a 1,514.3% increase in earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, while ConocoPhillips is projected to see a nearly 7% decline in the same year [16][19] Group 5: Investment Outlook - Antero Resources is viewed as a stronger investment choice compared to ConocoPhillips, with a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy) versus COP's Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [20]

If you don't buy Conoco stock, which oil stock should you buy instead?Shares of ConocoPhillips (COP 2.89%) dipped on Tuesday after TheFly.com reported multiple bank analysts forecasting lower price targets for the oil major in light of an ongoing trade war and recent declines in oil prices. On Wednesday, however, Conoco stock perked back up, rising a modest 2.3%, and indeed, recovering all of yesterday's losses.And why?Because oil prices are going back up.More oil, less gasAs OilPrice.com reports, oil inven ...