Core Insights - Costco's stock experienced a significant decline of over $27 due to membership growth not meeting market expectations, despite better-than-expected sales and earnings [1] - The company successfully increased membership fees without losing members, and there is a notable influx of younger members, alleviating concerns about an aging customer base [1] - Costco has managed to mitigate price increases on tariff-affected goods, which is a positive indicator for its operational resilience [1] Company Overview - Costco operates membership-based warehouses that offer a wide range of branded and private-label products, including groceries, appliances, apparel, and home essentials [2]

Core Insights - Costco reported a revenue increase of 8% year over year to $86.2 billion for Q4 fiscal 2025, surpassing analysts' expectations by $100 million, with earnings per share rising 11% to $5.87, exceeding consensus by $0.06 [1][2][7] Financial Performance - The adjusted comparable sales growth for Costco has shown a consistent upward trend: 9.2% in FY 2020, 13.4% in FY 2021, 10.6% in FY 2022, 5.2% in FY 2023, 5.9% in FY 2024, and 7.6% in FY 2025 [6] - Total warehouses increased from 795 in FY 2020 to 914 in FY 2025, while total cardholders grew from 105.5 million to 140.6 million in the same period [6] - The global renewal rate has remained stable, increasing from 88% in FY 2020 to 90.5% in FY 2025 [6] Business Model and Strategy - Costco's profitability is primarily driven by high-margin membership fees, allowing it to sell products at low margins [4] - The company maintains a narrower product range compared to competitors like Walmart, focusing on private label products to differentiate itself [5] - Ancillary services such as food courts and gas stations enhance membership stickiness and contribute to growth [5] Market Context - Costco experienced growth during the COVID-19 pandemic and inflationary periods, attracting more cost-conscious consumers [8] - The company successfully raised membership fees for the first time in seven years without negatively impacting renewal rates or membership growth [8]

Core Insights - Costco has a strong track record of exceeding earnings expectations and has consistently performed well in the stock market [1][13] - The company operates 914 warehouses globally, with over 600 located in the U.S., and has a significant presence in various countries [3] - Costco's business model relies heavily on customer memberships, which provide high-margin revenue and contribute significantly to its profits [4][5] Membership and Revenue - Membership fees are a major source of income, with the company reporting over $5 billion in membership revenue in the latest fiscal year [5] - Costco maintains a high membership renewal rate exceeding 90% in the U.S. and Canada, indicating strong customer loyalty [6] - The company's ability to offer low prices is supported by bulk purchasing, which enhances its competitive advantage [6][10] Market Position and Future Outlook - Costco is well-positioned to navigate challenges such as import tariffs due to its extensive supplier network and strong private label brand, Kirkland Signature [9] - The company's pricing strategy is advantageous during economic downturns, potentially driving revenue growth while competitors struggle [10] - Analysts have historically underestimated Costco's performance, with predictions suggesting the stock could reach $3,190 per share by 2035, representing a 248% increase from current levels [13][14] Stock Performance - Costco's stock has appreciated over 500% in the past decade, reflecting its strong earnings growth and market confidence [14] - The stock currently trades at 45 times forward earnings estimates, a premium justified by its business model and loyal customer base [11][12]

Core Viewpoint - Investors are showing concern regarding Costco's financial results for fiscal 2025, as indicated by a modest stock drop of around 3% following the report [1][2]. Financial Performance - Costco reported net sales of $270 billion for fiscal 2025, with a gross profit margin for merchandise at 11%, indicating a low-profit model [3]. - Comparable sales for Q4 increased by 5.7%, which was lower than expected, raising concerns among investors [2][6]. Membership Dynamics - Membership revenue is crucial for Costco, with total paid memberships reaching 81 million, up 6.3% year-over-year [6]. - Membership renewal rates slightly declined to 90%, with newer online members showing lower renewal rates compared to other cohorts [7]. Valuation Concerns - Costco's stock trades at over 50 times its earnings, close to its highest valuation ever and nearly double that of the S&P 500 [9]. - If Costco's valuation remains stable, the share price is expected to grow at the same rate as its earnings per share (EPS), which grew by 10% in fiscal 2025, partly due to a membership fee increase [11][12]. Growth Outlook - The company is experiencing modest membership growth, which may hinder its ability to outperform the market in the future [13]. - Slow growth combined with a high valuation could lead to lower returns for investors, despite Costco being a strong company [14].

花旗将开市客的目标价从1065美元下调至990美元，维持"中性"评级。(格隆汇) ...

Core Insights - Costco's recent quarterly earnings report indicates strong sales and earnings growth, reinforcing confidence in the company's long-term growth potential [1][4][10] Sales and Earnings Growth - Costco's same-store sales grew by 6.4% in the fiscal fourth quarter ending August 31, excluding gasoline price changes and foreign-exchange translations [4] - Operating income increased by 9.8% to $3.3 billion, demonstrating that the pricing strategy does not compromise profitability [5] Customer Loyalty - The company reported a membership renewal rate exceeding 90%, consistent with historical figures, despite a membership fee increase earlier in the year [6] - Total paid members reached 79.6 million in the third quarter, a 6.8% increase from the previous year, and up from 78.4 million in the prior quarter [7] Expansion Opportunities - Costco continues to expand, adding 20 to 30 locations annually, finishing the year with 914 warehouses, an increase of 24 from the previous year [8] - The company has a significant presence in the U.S. and is also expanding internationally, with same-store sales growth of 8.3% in Canada and 7.2% in other international locations [9] Valuation - Costco's shares have a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 52, which, while down from over 60 earlier this year, remains high compared to the S&P 500 Index's P/E ratio of 31 [10]

Economic Indicators - The upcoming non-farm payroll report is highlighted as a critical economic indicator, overshadowing other data releases such as car sales and jobless claims [2] - If the payroll data shows rapid wage growth, the Federal Reserve may delay interest rate cuts, indicating a cautious approach to inflation management [2][3] - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is navigating a mixed economic landscape, with signs of slowdown in some sectors and growth in data center construction [2] Company Insights - Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ:COST) is noted for its strong long-term performance, delivering an annualized return of nearly 19% over the past 20 years, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 [7] - Despite a recent drop in stock price due to lower-than-expected membership growth, Costco's fundamentals remain strong, with increased membership fees and a younger demographic joining [7][8] - ONEOK, Inc. (NYSE:OKE) is recognized for its strong position in the natural gas sector, with a focus on providing services to the Gulf Coast, and is considered a buy due to its potential upside despite a recent decline in stock price [9]

Core Viewpoint - Costco continues to show strong resilience in a challenging economic environment, but its stock performance has been lackluster despite solid financial results [1][3]. Financial Performance - For fiscal Q4 2025, Costco reported revenue of $86.2 billion, slightly exceeding analyst expectations of $86.1 billion [5]. - Earnings per share (EPS) for the same period were $5.87, surpassing Wall Street estimates of $5.80 [5]. - Comparable sales growth for fiscal Q4 was 5.7%, with U.S. growth at 5.1% and international growth at 8.6% [6]. Market Position and Strategy - Costco's warehouse stores remain popular due to their value proposition for bulk buyers, and there is potential for further market expansion, particularly outside North America [2]. - The company is focusing on increasing its private-label Kirkland Signature brand offerings to provide alternatives to goods affected by tariffs, indicating adaptability to current macroeconomic conditions [7]. Stock Performance and Valuation - Despite strong earnings, Costco's stock fell a few percentage points, remaining flat for the year, contrasting with the S&P 500's 13% increase [8][9]. - The stock is currently trading at a price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of over 50, significantly higher than the average S&P 500 stock's P/E of 25, raising concerns about its inflated valuation [10]. - High valuations and the impact of tariffs on consumer goods have led to investor concerns about potential slowing growth rates, leaving little margin for error in Costco's stock price [11]. Investment Outlook - While Costco may still be a good long-term investment, its current high valuation makes it less attractive compared to other reasonably priced growth stocks [12].

Trading in Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ: C) is quiet Monday.  This comes after the shares lost almost 3% in Friday's trading. A disappointing earnings report drove the move.Some traders are watching to see if there will be a reversal and move higher soon. This is why it is today's Stock of the Day.If Costo drops to levels around $885, there is a good chance it finds support. As you can see on the chart below, there was support in March and again in April.Costco technicals.Stocks tend to find support ...

Key Points Costco turned in another strong quarter. However, its stock has not gained any traction this year. A high valuation could keep the stock rangebound. 10 stocks we like better than Costco Wholesale › Costco Wholesale (NASDAQ: COST) once again turned in another strong quarter, but its stock wasn't able to gain any traction. The stock is up about 165% over the past five years, but is flattish year to date. While the retailer has seen a lot of operational momentum, its stock now appears stu ...