Core Viewpoint - The upcoming Amazon Prime Day is seen as an indicator of the health of the US consumer and overall market conditions [1][2] Consumer Behavior - There is a growing concern among consumers regarding rising costs, leading them to seek ways to save money [4] - In previous economic downturns, companies like Costco have performed well as consumers look for cost-effective options [4] Company Analysis: Costco - Costco has a high membership renewal rate of over 90%, providing a cushion for profitability [5] - Despite concerns about consumer spending, Costco's model allows consumers to stretch their dollars by purchasing in bulk [6][8] - The stock is currently valued at approximately 47 times forward earnings, indicating a high valuation [5] Economic Impact - Moody's estimates that each week of a government shutdown could negatively impact quarterly GDP by 0.1% [9] - The current government shutdown has not yet significantly impacted consumer behavior, but concerns are rising as it continues [10][11] AI Market Perspective - The AI sector is viewed as a long-term investment opportunity, with ongoing developments expected to influence the market positively [13][14] - Despite potential overvaluation, continued investment in AI-related stocks is encouraged as the market evolves [14]

Table of Contents UNITED STATES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION Washington, D.C. 20549 FORM 10-K ☒ ANNUAL REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934 For the fiscal year ended August 31, 2025 or ☐ TRANSITION REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934 Commission file number 0-20355 Costco Wholesale Corporation (Exact name of registrant as specified in its charter) (State or other jurisdiction of incorporation or organization) Washington ...

Core Insights - Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) reported its fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 results, highlighting stable growth and a loyal membership base, which has historically allowed it to navigate economic challenges better than competitors [1] Financial Performance - Shares of Costco fell 3.4% post-earnings release due to a top-line miss, despite year-over-year improvements in revenues and earnings driven by membership growth, resilient traffic, and e-commerce gains [2] - Comparable sales, excluding gasoline prices and foreign exchange impacts, rose 6.4%, with U.S. comparable sales increasing by 6%, and Canada and Other International markets seeing gains of 8.3% and 7.2%, respectively [2] - Membership fee income grew 14% year over year to $1,724 million in Q4, with less than half of this growth attributed to fee increases introduced last September [7] Membership and Growth Strategy - Costco ended the quarter with 81 million paid members, a 6.3% increase from the previous year, with executive memberships growing 9.3% to 38.7 million, accounting for 47.7% of all paid members and driving 74.2% of worldwide sales [3] - The company's high membership renewal rates stood at 92.3% in the U.S. and Canada, and 89.8% worldwide, reflecting strong member loyalty [6] E-commerce and Digital Expansion - E-commerce comparable sales rose 13.6% year over year, with site traffic up 27% and Costco Logistics deliveries increasing by 13% [9] - Management reported that "digitally enabled" sales exceeded $27 billion in fiscal 2025, indicating a strong digital performance [9] Capital Expenditures and Future Outlook - Costco generated $13,335 million in operating cash flow and ended the year with $14,161 million in cash and equivalents, with plans for modestly higher capital expenditures in fiscal 2026 to support 35 new store openings [10] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the current fiscal year increased by 16 cents to $20.01, while the estimate for the next fiscal year declined by 3 cents to $21.86, indicating expected year-over-year growth rates of 11.2% and 9.3%, respectively [4] Competitive Landscape - Costco's stock has underperformed relative to the industry, falling 6.2% over the past month compared to the industry's decline of 4.1% [13] - The stock is trading at a significant premium, with a forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio of 45.11, higher than the industry average of 29.45 and the S&P 500's 23.65 [15]

Costco has a new growing customer base: members under the age of 40.  CFO Gary Millerchip told investors during its earnings call at the end of September that the membership warehouse is gaining an influx of younger shoppers. Almost half of its new member sign-ups during the three-month period ending on Aug. 31 were under the age of 40, Millerchip said on the call. The company also reported a 92.3% renewal rate across North America. The rate is down slightly from the prior quarter due to more people joining ...

Core Insights - Costco has begun offering Ozempic and Wegovy, injectable prescription drugs from Novo Nordisk, at its pharmacies nationwide for $499 per month, matching prices at CVS, Walmart, and the company's website [1][2] - Wegovy is approved for chronic weight management, while Ozempic is approved for treating type 2 diabetes and reducing cardiovascular risks, with Ozempic being prescribed off-label for weight loss [3][4] Company Financials - Costco reported a net sales increase of 8% for the fourth quarter ending August 31, 2025, reaching $84.4 billion, up from $78.2 billion the previous year [5] - For the fiscal year, net sales rose 8.1% to $269.9 billion from $249.6 billion [5] - The company's current market capitalization stands at $402.6 billion [5]

Core Insights - Costco Wholesale's stock has underperformed in 2023, down 1% year-to-date compared to a nearly 15% increase in the S&P 500 [1] - The company's third-quarter results showed earnings per share of $5.87 and revenue of $86.16 billion, both exceeding consensus estimates, but the market reaction was muted [2] - Membership fee income, a key profitability driver, rose 14% year-over-year, indicating strong customer loyalty despite a recent fee increase [3] - Concerns are growing regarding the impact of tariffs and whether Costco can sustain growth to justify its high price-to-earnings ratio of 51 [4] Options Strategy - Investors can consider a bear put spread by buying a 900-strike put option and selling an 880-strike put option, with a maximum loss of $700 if shares are above 900 at expiration [5][6] - The maximum profit from this strategy is $1,300 if shares trade below 880 at expiration [6] Performance Ratings - Costco has an IBD Composite Rating of 46, with shares trending lower and falling below both the 50- and 200-day moving averages [7] - The Relative Strength Rating of 24 indicates that Costco stock has outperformed less than 25% of stocks in the IBD database over the past year [7]

Quantum Computing - Quantum Computing had a strong week with positive news from an investor conference and an oversubscribed private placement of $750 million, yet experienced a decline of over 10% following this announcement [2][4] - The sector is currently very hot, and the recent pullback presents a buying opportunity, particularly around the $20.50 to $21 range, with limited downside risk [4][5] - The stock has increased approximately 239% over the last six months, indicating strong performance despite the recent downturn [13] Costco - Costco is viewed as mildly bullish due to significant support levels just below the current trading price, with a focus on maintaining stability rather than expecting a large upward movement [14][15] - A put spread strategy is being employed, selling the 910-900 put spread to capitalize on the current price level, with a maximum risk of $550 [15][16] - The stock has shown resilience around the $90.32 level, which has been a low point in recent trading sessions, and further downside could see it testing the $89 level [18][19] Starbucks - Starbucks is experiencing downward movement amidst store closures and layoffs, but there is technical support just below the current trading price, similar to Costco [24][25] - A put spread strategy is also being implemented for Starbucks, selling the 85-80 put spread with a target break-even of $82.50 by October 31 [26][27] - The stock is currently trading around $83.08, with critical support levels identified at $82.67 and $80, indicating potential areas for price stabilization [28][32]

Core Insights - Costco is a leading retail enterprise with a strong global presence and has provided significant returns to shareholders, with a total return of 182% over the past five years [2][4][8] - The retail sector is highly competitive, characterized by thin margins and challenges in inventory management due to changing consumer preferences [3] - Despite economic challenges since 2020, Costco has shown strong financial performance, with increases in membership, revenue, and earnings per share in fiscal 2025 compared to fiscal 2020 [5][8] Financial Performance - Costco's shares have significantly outperformed the market, with a $10,000 investment five years ago now worth over $28,000 [4] - The company has successfully navigated economic headwinds such as the pandemic, supply chain issues, and rising inflation, indicating a robust business model [5] Market Position - Costco dominates the general merchandise retail industry, benefiting from a large sales base and a loyal membership [8] - The outlook for Costco remains positive, with expectations for continued growth in members, revenue, and earnings [5][8]

Group 1 - Costco Wholesale is recognized for its loyal membership base, steady traffic, and value-driven culture, making it a reliable performer in the retail sector [2] - The stock trades near all-time highs, reflecting a valuation premium over competitors, indicating strong investor confidence [2] - Despite its strengths, there are risks associated with the premium valuation, particularly concerning membership income and growth potential [3] Group 2 - Membership fees are crucial for Costco, generating $5.3 billion in revenue in fiscal 2025, which constitutes a significant portion of net income [5] - Renewal rates are high at approximately 90% globally and 92% in the U.S. and Canada, but there are concerns about potential saturation in the U.S. market [5][6] - The company's growth strategy relies heavily on international expansion, which presents both opportunities and risks [6][8] Group 3 - International growth is seen as the primary growth driver, with 914 warehouses globally, including locations in China and Europe [9] - Expanding internationally poses execution risks, as consumer preferences and competitive landscapes differ significantly across markets [10] - Successful adaptation of Costco's business model to various international markets is essential for sustained growth [10]

Core Insights - Costco has been one of the best retail investments over the last three decades due to its unique operational model [1] - The membership model creates different incentives that reinforce the company's competitive advantages [1] Company Operations - Costco operates differently from most retailers, which contributes to its long-term success [1] - The membership model is a key differentiator that enhances customer loyalty and drives sales [1]