随着多家餐饮企业陆续发布2025年经营业绩预告，餐饮行业呈现出明显的业绩分化态势。有的餐饮企业凭借强大的品牌力、供应链管理和数字化能力实现 逆势增长，也有餐饮企业因同质化竞争、成本上升和消费疲软等因素面临较大压力。 锅圈等业绩大增 在2025年餐饮行业整体增速放缓的背景下，部分餐饮企业依然交出了亮眼的成绩单。 战略布局调整 港股上市公司锅圈近日发布正面盈利预告，预计2025年全年收入将攀升至人民币77.5亿元—人民币78.5亿元，同比增幅约19.8%—21.3%；净利润表现尤为 亮眼，预计将达到人民币4.43亿元—人民币4.63亿元，同比大幅增长83.7%至92%，接近翻番。 业绩强劲预增的背后，是锅圈明确的战略聚焦与高效执行。公司表示，通过持续大力开拓乡镇市场，并稳步拓展其他地区的市场，截至2025年12月31日的 门店数量达到11566家，较2024年12月31日的门店数量增长了1416家。随着规模扩张及店均收入的增长，叠加运营效率的优化，共同驱动利润率及核心经 营利润率的增长。公司坚定小区央厨战略，通过多渠道多场景，线上线下相结合，实现了实时零售门店网络的扩张和门店经营效能的提升。 无独有偶，遇见小面也 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Industrial Securities maintains an "overweight" rating for Haidilao (06862), highlighting recent management changes aimed at enhancing operational efficiency and promoting innovative development. The return of the chairman to frontline management is expected to improve execution of diverse strategies, with stable brand operations and a projected revenue increase in the second half of the year [1]. Group 1: Management Changes - The company announced management changes on January 13, with Chairman Zhang Yong appointed as CEO, returning to frontline management. Four young executives have been promoted to executive directors, including Li Nana, Zhu Yinhua, Jiao Defeng, and Zhu Xuanyi, who have all progressed through various roles within the company [1]. Group 2: Operational Performance - The table turnover rate for the first half of 2025 is projected at 3.8 times, with restaurant operating revenue expected to reach 18.58 billion yuan. The company anticipates that the turnover rate in the second half of 2025 will outperform the first half, leading to a narrowing of revenue decline for the year [2]. Group 3: Store Development - The estimated number of Haidilao restaurants for 2025 is 1,372, remaining stable compared to the beginning of the year. The company is actively replacing underperforming stores to enhance overall operational quality. Additionally, the estimated number of the subsidiary brand Yanhui is expected to reach 80, with other brands like Jugaogao and Xiaohai Aizha projected to have 39 and 5 stores, respectively [3]. Group 4: Brand Expansion - Since the second half of 2025, the company has intensified its strategy for subsidiary brand development, launching multiple new brands. Jugaogao, focusing on self-service hot pot, has a customer price point of approximately 60 yuan, with rapid store openings in second-tier cities. The company has also entered the sushi market with its first store opening in Hangzhou in October 2025, priced around 90 yuan. Additionally, the first Haidilao Dapaidang hot pot store opened in Guangzhou in December 2025, with a pricing model based on dishes, targeting group gatherings at around 110 yuan per customer. Xiaohai Aizha continues to expand its offerings with a customer price point of about 30 yuan [4].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Industrial Securities maintains an "overweight" rating for Haidilao (06862), highlighting recent management changes aimed at enhancing operational efficiency and promoting innovative development [1] Group 1: Management Changes - The company announced management changes on January 13, with Chairman Zhang Yong returning to frontline management as CEO [1] - Four young executives have been promoted to executive directors, including Li Nana, Zhu Yinhua, Jiao Defeng, and Zhu Xuanyi, all of whom have significant tenure and experience within the company [1] Group 2: Operational Performance - The table turnover rate for H1 2025 is projected at 3.8 times, with restaurant operating revenue expected to reach 18.58 billion yuan, indicating a recovery in performance for H2 2025 compared to H1 [2] - The company anticipates that the turnover rate in H2 2025 will outperform H1, leading to a narrowing of the revenue decline for the year [2] Group 3: Store Development - The estimated number of Haidilao restaurants for 2025 is 1,372, remaining stable compared to the beginning of the year, with ongoing efforts to improve the quality of existing stores [3] - The company is also actively developing its sub-brands, with an expected 80 stores for the "Yanhui" brand and additional stores for other brands like "Jugaogao" and "Xiaohai Aizha" [3] Group 4: New Brand Initiatives - Since H2 2025, the company has intensified its sub-brand development strategy, launching multiple new brands [4] - The "Jugaogao" self-service hot pot targets individual diners with an average spending of approximately 60 yuan, while the first "Sushi" store opened in October 2025 in Hangzhou with an average spending of around 90 yuan [4] - The "Haidilao Dapaidang" hot pot's first store opened in Guangzhou in December 2025, with a focus on group dining and an average spending of about 110 yuan [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent leadership changes at Haidilao, including the return of founder Zhang Yong as CEO and the appointment of four experienced female executives to the board, signify a strategic pivot aimed at stabilizing the core hotpot business while accelerating the growth of the newly formed "Pomegranate Plan" [2][4][10]. Group 1: Leadership Changes - Zhang Yong's return as both Chairman and CEO is interpreted as a move to enhance decision-making efficiency and is seen as a strategic restructuring rather than a mere reaction to past challenges [6][10]. - The appointment of four internal executives, aged 35-44, to the board reflects a shift towards empowering younger leaders with operational backgrounds, transforming the board into a training ground for future leaders [10][11]. Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - The "Pomegranate Plan," launched in August 2024, aims to transition Haidilao from a single-brand operation to a multi-brand ecosystem, with a focus on diversifying its restaurant offerings [9][10]. - Since the initiation of the "Pomegranate Plan," Haidilao has successfully incubated 14 new restaurant brands, contributing significantly to revenue growth, with other restaurant income reaching 597 million yuan, a 227% year-on-year increase [13]. Group 3: Market Response and Future Outlook - Market reactions to the governance changes have been mixed, with Goldman Sachs maintaining a neutral rating while other firms like Citigroup have raised target prices, indicating confidence in the multi-brand strategy [14]. - The long-term challenge for Haidilao lies in nurturing these new brands to become substantial growth drivers while maintaining the core hotpot business, reflecting the broader challenges faced by leading companies in the restaurant industry during periods of transformation [14].

Group 1: Guangdong Trade Performance - In 2025, Guangdong's goods trade import and export reached 9.49 trillion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 4.4%, marking a historical annual high [4] - Exports amounted to 6.03 trillion RMB, up 2.5% year-on-year, while imports were 3.46 trillion RMB, increasing by 7.8% [4] - Guangdong accounted for 20.9% of the national foreign trade total, contributing 24.1% to the national foreign trade growth [4] Group 2: Quarterly Trade Growth - Guangdong's import and export growth rates for the four quarters of 2025 were 4.1%, 3.8%, 3.5%, and 6.1%, showing a steady upward trend [5] - The quarterly trade volumes were 2.13 trillion, 2.41 trillion, 2.47 trillion, and 2.48 trillion RMB, indicating a gradual increase [5] Group 3: High-tech Product Exports - High-tech product exports from Guangdong exceeded 1 trillion RMB for the first time, with a year-on-year growth of 9.5% [6] - The growth in high-tech exports reflects Guangdong's resilience and potential in the face of complex external environments [5][6] Group 4: Night Economy and New Consumption Trends - The newly opened Haidilao Dapaidang hotpot restaurant in Wuhan has attracted significant consumer interest, indicating a revival in the dining industry [12] - The restaurant operates from 10:30 AM to 7:00 AM, focusing on seafood and fresh-cut beef, and has seen long queues since its opening [13] - The unique immersive experience and high quality-to-price ratio are key factors driving consumer traffic to the new dining format [15][18]

晚上10时30分的武汉武昌滨江天街6楼，新开业的海底捞大排档火锅店里人声鼎沸：顾客们推着小车穿 梭在菜品档口，挑选鲜切牛肉与海鲜；一家四口正为孩子庆祝生日，热气氤氲中满是欢声笑语；从黄冈 驱车百里前来的食客，也甘愿为这一口"酸爽"排队到深夜。 大排档火锅这一新业态，通过市集般的沉浸体验、扎实的食材质价比和满满的情绪价值，用一锅酸爽点 燃了深夜的胃，也撬动了广阔的情绪消费市场。业内专家表示，随着夜经济持续升温与消费需求不断升 级，武汉这场始于深夜火锅局的消费新浪潮，正为餐饮行业复苏注入鲜活动能。 新业态成市民夜消费新主力 位于武昌滨江天街6楼的这家海底捞大排档火锅店，是湖北首店，开业即吸引了众多市民前往消费。 ◎记者 丁鹏 "我们人均消费100多元，整体感觉食材确实不错。"晏升表示，平常的火锅店吃一份牛肉可能需要三四 十元，但这里的各种牛羊肉平均一盘只要十几元，虽然是小份，但可以尝到更多品类，顾客的体验感更 丰富。 虽然在高峰期需要排队，但很多人还是成了回头客。1月14日上午10时，家住武昌滨江天街附近的冯先 生已和妻子早早来到店外排队取号，他计划中午宴请哥哥和姐姐两家人。他表示，这家店刚开业的时 候，儿子儿媳 ...

Core Viewpoint - The return of Zhang Yong as CEO of Haidilao is seen as a strategic move to address the company's challenges and revitalize its operations in a competitive market [2][3][10]. Management Changes - On January 13, 2024, Haidilao announced the resignation of several executives, including CEO Gou Yiqun, with Zhang Yong being appointed as CEO effective immediately [2]. - Zhang Yong's return marks a significant shift in leadership, as he was previously considered to have stepped back from day-to-day operations [3][9]. Market Reaction - Following the announcement of Zhang Yong's return, Haidilao's stock surged over 9%, reaching HKD 15.74 per share, the highest since May of the previous year, with a market capitalization of HKD 87.7 billion [3]. Historical Context - Zhang Yong had previously stepped down as CEO during a challenging period for Haidilao, which included a profit warning and significant losses in 2021 [5][8]. - The company had expanded rapidly in 2020, opening 544 new stores, which contributed to its financial difficulties [7][8]. Strategic Initiatives - The "Pomegranate Plan," aimed at incubating new restaurant brands, was initially led by Gou Yiqun and is expected to be a key focus for Zhang Yong [10][11]. - As of mid-2025, the "Pomegranate Plan" had successfully incubated 14 new brands, generating revenue of CNY 597 million, which accounted for 2.9% of total revenue [10]. New Business Developments - The launch of "Haidilao Dapaidang Hotpot" represents a shift in strategy, leveraging the Haidilao brand to reduce consumer decision-making difficulty and accelerate expansion [12]. - The new concept has already seen rapid growth, with nearly 10 locations opened or in preparation within a month of its debut [12]. Leadership Transition - The appointment of younger executives to the board indicates a shift towards a more dynamic management approach, focusing on various operational aspects [13]. - The challenges of balancing personalized consumer demands with scalable growth remain a critical focus for Haidilao as it seeks to establish a second growth curve [14].

Core Viewpoint - The return of Zhang Yong, the founder of Haidilao, to the CEO position signifies a strategic shift aimed at addressing growth pressures and enhancing operational efficiency within the company [1][2][4]. Management Changes - On January 13, Haidilao announced a leadership change, with Zhang Yong taking over as CEO from Guo Yiqun, who will focus on the automation and intelligence of management processes [1]. - The board of directors underwent a restructuring, with four new executive directors appointed from within the company, representing a new generation of management [2]. Business Performance - Since its IPO in 2018, Haidilao has experienced leadership changes, with the most recent CEO, Yang Lijuan, implementing strategies to optimize operations and reduce underperforming stores [4][5]. - In the first half of 2024, Haidilao reported over 30% year-on-year revenue growth, with a table turnover rate returning to 4.2 times per day, achieving historical highs in revenue and core operating profit [6]. Challenges and Strategic Initiatives - Despite a recovery in offline consumption, Haidilao faced a 3.7% decline in revenue and a 14% drop in core operating profit in the first half of 2025, attributed to increased competition and changing consumer preferences [8]. - The company is innovating in product offerings and store formats to enhance customer experience, including the introduction of themed stores and new menu items [8][10]. Diversification Efforts - Haidilao's "Pomegranate Plan" aims to explore diversified business models, with 14 new restaurant brands launched by mid-2025, contributing to a significant increase in revenue from other restaurant operations [7][11]. - The company is also focusing on external brand collaborations and acquisitions to enhance its market presence, such as the rapid expansion of the "Jugaogao" self-service hot pot brand [17]. Future Outlook - Zhang Yong's return is expected to streamline decision-making and enhance the execution of the company's multi-brand strategy, with plans to incubate new brands and expand existing ones [18][19]. - The strategic direction remains clear: the main brand will focus on upgrading store experiences, while sub-brands will explore niche markets to drive growth [18].

Group 1: Macroeconomic Research - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the December inflation in the US did not show the rebound that the market had feared, with the core CPI growth rate being lower than expected. The year-on-year CPI growth remained at 2.7%, unchanged from November, while the month-on-month growth was 0.3%, also unchanged from September. The core CPI year-on-year growth was 2.6%, slightly below the market expectation of 2.7% [1][2][3] - The structure of inflation shows weak performance in core goods, particularly due to second-hand vehicles, while core services have shown a general recovery. The month-on-month growth for core goods was 0%, and even excluding second-hand vehicles, the growth remained low. In contrast, the housing component rebounded from 0.2% in September to 0.4% in December [3][15] Group 2: Financial Engineering Research - The report suggests an overweight position in small-cap stocks for January based on quantitative model signals, while recommending an equal allocation between value and growth styles. The model signal for small-cap stocks was 0.17 at the end of December, indicating a favorable outlook [4][6] - The performance of style factors indicates that momentum and value factors yielded positive returns, while dividend factors showed negative returns. The report highlights that the model's return was 27.56%, with an excess return of 0.71% compared to the equal-weight benchmark [6][24] Group 3: Company Research - Haidilao - The report discusses Haidilao's recent management changes, with the founder taking over as CEO, which is expected to enhance employee motivation and boost investor confidence. The new board members have extensive experience within the company, contributing to operational and strategic development [8][10][22] - Haidilao's operational performance remains robust, with significant customer traffic reported during the New Year period, indicating strong demand. The company is also advancing its "Red Pomegranate" plan, which includes the launch of new dining concepts [11][23] - The investment recommendation for Haidilao is to maintain an "overweight" rating, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 being 42.36 billion, 47.41 billion, and 52.69 billion yuan respectively. The target price is set at 19.10 HKD, reflecting a valuation slightly above the industry average [9][21]

Core Viewpoint - The recent leadership changes at Haidilao, including the return of founder Zhang Yong as CEO, reflect the company's struggle with declining performance and the need for strategic adjustments to stimulate growth [2][3][5]. Leadership Changes - Zhang Yong has returned as CEO after a four-year gap, following the tenures of Yang Lijuan and Gou Yiqun [3]. - The company announced significant changes in its executive team, including the resignation of several directors and the appointment of new ones with extensive experience within the Haidilao system [4]. Financial Performance - Haidilao's financial results for the first half of 2025 showed a decline in both revenue and net profit, with revenue at 20.7 billion yuan, down 3.7% year-on-year, and net profit at 1.76 billion yuan, down 13.7% [5]. - The company has also seen a decrease in key operational metrics, including a drop in table turnover rate from 4.2 times per day in 2024 to 3.8 times in 2025, and a same-store sales decline of 9.9% [6]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is heavily reliant on its core hotpot business, which accounted for 89.8% of its revenue in the first half of 2025, with a total of 1,363 restaurants, a net decrease of 5 from the previous year [6]. - Haidilao launched the "Pomegranate Plan" in August 2024 to incubate new restaurant brands, resulting in the creation of 14 new brands, although these currently contribute only 2.9% to total revenue [7]. Market Challenges - The overall restaurant industry is facing significant challenges due to weak consumer spending, which has impacted Haidilao's growth prospects [5]. - Analysts suggest that the company needs to explore new growth avenues and enhance operational efficiency to overcome the limitations of its existing business model [6][7].