订阅欧洲央行动态 +订阅 金十数据7月29日讯，德意志银行现在认为，欧洲央行已经结束其宽松周期。此前，德意志银行预计欧 洲央行将在9月再次降息，并预计终端利率为1.50%（目前为2%）。不过，他们此前也指出，欧洲央行 宽松周期止步于1.75%甚至2.00%的风险不容忽视。所以，现在的情况似乎就是这样。德意志银行现在 认为欧洲央行的下一步行动是加息，但这要到2026年底才会实现。 德银：欧洲央行宽松周期已结束，下一步行动是加息 ...

智通财经7月29日电，德意志银行不再预期欧洲央行会降息；预计下一次政策行动将在2026年底加息。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank is losing its competitive edge in leveraged financing transactions, struggling to maintain market share and facing challenges in recent debt underwriting efforts [1][4] Group 1: Market Position and Performance - Deutsche Bank's market share in leveraged financing has dropped to eighth place, controlling only 3.6% of global transactions, down from a peak of 9% in 2014 [1] - The bank's revenue trajectory is declining, with projected income for the first half of 2025 in Europe expected to plummet by 35% to €74 million ($86 million), and a 27% decline in the U.S. market to $145 million [5] Group 2: Strategic Challenges - The decline in Deutsche Bank's leveraged financing business is attributed to multiple factors, including strategic retrenchment under CEO Christian Sewing, regulatory pressures, and a changing market landscape [6] - The scarcity of merger and acquisition transactions has led to a reduction in high-fee projects, while the current focus on debt restructuring is not aligned with management's interests [6] Group 3: Talent and Leadership Issues - The bank has experienced significant talent loss, with key executives leaving for competitors, which has further weakened its position in the leveraged financing market [6][7] - Deutsche Bank is actively working to fill vacancies, having recruited talent from other financial institutions to bolster its capabilities [7] Group 4: Recent Transaction Challenges - The recent underwriting of a $4.3 billion debt for Apollo Global Management's acquisition of International Game Technology faced investor reluctance, forcing the bank to improve terms to close the deal [1] - Other challenging transactions include a $1.2 billion high-yield bond for Mohegan Tribal Gaming Authority and difficulties in placing loans for 1440 Foods and Oyo Hotels [8] Group 5: Future Outlook - Despite recent challenges, Deutsche Bank's CFO emphasized the strategic importance of the leveraged debt capital markets (LDCM) business, indicating ongoing investment in this area [8]

Once known as a stalwart in that business — placing among the top five in league tables — Deutsche Bank has lost its luster over the past several years https://t.co/sQGmzTpAvt ...

金十数据7月28日讯，德意志银行分析师Mark Wall表示，美欧贸易协议降低了欧洲央行进一步降息的必 要性。因为协议达成后，欧元区贸易政策的不确定性下降，欧洲央行进一步降息的压力将会减小。欧元 区货币市场预计欧洲央行今年12月降息的可能性不到60%，欧洲央行9月或10月降息的可能性很小。 德银：美欧贸易协定降低了欧洲央行降息的必要性 ...

Group 1 - The core of the U.S. AI action plan is to redefine global power dynamics, positioning AI as a key strategic direction for industrial and informational transformation [1] - Data center electricity consumption in the U.S. is projected to rise from 4.4% of total electricity usage in 2023 to between 6.7% and 12% by 2028, indicating a potential doubling of power demand within five years [1] - The current U.S. power infrastructure may become a critical constraint on AI advancements due to unprecedented pressure from exponential growth in computing power [1] Group 2 - The U.S. is pursuing a three-pronged strategy to address energy challenges: delaying the retirement of key power plants, modernizing the existing transmission network, and investing in advanced technologies like small modular nuclear reactors [3] - The deep connection between the U.S. economy and AI industry is expected to create new growth opportunities while also increasing vulnerability to technological cycles [3] - The capital market is reflecting the pain of energy transition, with significant valuation increases for traditional energy giants and emerging nuclear technology firms, indicating a projected investment of over $100 billion in U.S. power infrastructure over the next five years [5]

Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank has set a target for a post-tax average return on tangible equity (ROTE) of no less than 10% as part of its 2022-2025 "Global Universal Bank" strategy, reflecting significant improvement in its credit status through business restructuring [1] Group 1 - Deutsche Bank has improved its credit status, leading to upgrades from multiple rating agencies [1] - The actual ROTE for the first half of the year reached 11%, demonstrating the feasibility of the set target [1] - Although still lagging behind other major European peers, the target represents a significant enhancement in performance [1]

Core Viewpoint - Major investment banks on Wall Street are raising alarms about increasing speculative behavior and rising leverage levels in the U.S. stock market, indicating that bubble risks are accumulating [1]. Group 1: Speculative Activity - Goldman Sachs warns that high-risk activities in the U.S. stock market have surged, with indicators of market speculation reaching historical highs, second only to the 2000 internet bubble and the 2021 retail trading frenzy [2]. - Goldman Sachs' speculation trading indicators show that current levels are at historical peaks, except for the periods of 1998-2001 and 2020-2021 [6]. - The basket of stocks with the highest short interest has seen price increases exceeding 60%, indicating potential for further gains but also increasing the risk of a downturn [7]. Group 2: Leverage Levels - Deutsche Bank highlights that margin debt levels have reached a "dangerous" threshold, with total margin debt exceeding $1 trillion for the first time in history as of June [3][8]. - Margin debt surged by 18.5% over two months, marking the fastest pace of leverage increase since late 1999 or mid-2007, which poses potential threats to credit markets [8]. - Deutsche Bank strategists suggest that unless unexpected tariff reductions or a more dovish stance from the Federal Reserve occur, the current market exuberance may not be sustainable [9]. Group 3: Monetary Policy and Regulation - Bank of America emphasizes that loose monetary policies and relaxed financial regulations are contributing to rising bubble risks, with global policy rates expected to decline further from 4.4% to 3.9% over the next 12 months [10]. - The consideration of regulatory reforms aimed at increasing retail investor participation is noted, with the expectation that more retail investors will lead to greater liquidity, volatility, and bubble risks [11]. - Despite the stock market reaching new highs driven by economic resilience and optimistic corporate earnings, the S&P 500 index has underperformed compared to international peers this year [12].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Deutsche Bank reported a pre-provision profit of EUR 6.2 billion for the first half of 2025, nearly double the same period in 2024 [5] - Net commission and fee income increased by 4% year on year, aligning with the goal to boost revenues from fee-based and capital-light businesses [5] - Net interest income (NII) across key banking book segments was EUR 3.4 billion, up 5% quarter on quarter, with a full-year NII guidance of EUR 13.6 billion [10][11] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - All four business divisions delivered double-digit returns in the first half of 2025, with the Corporate Bank positioned to capitalize on investment opportunities in Germany and Europe [6][7] - The Investment Bank is focused on consolidating its position in the European FICC franchise, while the Private Bank is seeing improvements in returns due to transformation efforts [7][8] - Asset Management has over EUR 1 trillion in assets under management, positioning it well for both German and European investors [8] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Loan growth of EUR 3 billion was observed in the second quarter, with a strong underlying quality of the loan book [12] - Deposits grew by EUR 4 billion during the second quarter, reflecting a stable and high-quality deposit portfolio [13][14] - The liquidity coverage ratio increased to 136%, driven by lower net cash outflows, indicating a strong liquidity position [14][15] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Deutsche Bank is on track to meet its 2025 financial targets, with a compound annual growth rate of 5.9% since 2021 [9] - The bank aims to achieve EUR 2.5 billion in operational efficiencies, with EUR 2.2 billion already delivered or expected [9] - The focus remains on self-help and improving internal operations before considering mergers and acquisitions [36][38] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the bank's trajectory towards delivering a return on tangible equity (RoTE) of above 10% and a cost-income ratio below 65% [24] - Despite uncertainties in the macroeconomic environment, a reduction in provisioning levels is anticipated in the second half of the year [24] - The bank's strong capital position and second-quarter performance have been recognized by rating upgrades from Morningstar DBRS and Fitch [25] Other Important Information - The CET1 ratio improved to 14.2%, up 42 basis points sequentially, reflecting strong earnings and capital efficiency measures [17][18] - The bank plans to issue between EUR 15 billion and EUR 20 billion to meet 2025 funding requirements, with EUR 10.9 billion already issued year to date [21] Q&A Session Summary Question: Capital distribution policy and CET1 ratio - Management confirmed that the distribution policy remains unchanged, intending to repatriate 50% of earnings via dividends and share buybacks, with a CET1 ratio above 14% allowing for additional distributions [29][30] Question: Ratings direction and expectations - Management expressed optimism about further positive rating revisions from other agencies, following upgrades from Morningstar DBRS and Fitch [31][32] Question: Involvement in M&A activities - Management reiterated a focus on internal improvements before considering M&A, acknowledging mixed conditions for cross-border mergers in Europe [36][38] Question: U.S. commercial real estate (CRE) provisions - Management indicated a reduction in the CRE portfolio due to paydowns and charge-offs, with cumulative credit loss allowances currently at EUR 700 million [49][50] Question: Investment banking pipeline and NDFI lending - Management noted a strong investment banking pipeline, particularly in M&A and equity transactions, while also addressing lending to alternative asset managers [57][62]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a pre-provision profit of EUR 6.2 billion, nearly double compared to the same period in 2024 [4] - Net commission and fee income increased by 4% year on year, aligning with the goal to boost revenues from fee-based and capital-light businesses [4] - Net interest income (NII) across key banking book segments was EUR 3.4 billion, up 5% quarter on quarter, with a full-year NII guidance of EUR 13.6 billion [10][11] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - All four business divisions delivered double-digit returns in the first half of the year [5] - The Corporate Bank is well-positioned to capitalize on investment opportunities in Germany and Europe [6] - The Investment Bank is focused on consolidating its position in the European FICC franchise, while the Private Bank is seeing improvements in returns due to transformation efforts [6][7] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company achieved a compound annual growth rate of 5.9% since 2021, within the target range of 5.5% to 6.5% [7] - The liquidity coverage ratio increased by around two percentage points to 136%, driven by lower net cash outflows [14] - The net stable funding ratio slightly increased to 120, reflecting a stable funding base with over two-thirds of funding from global deposits [15] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is on track to meet its 2025 financial targets, focusing on operational efficiencies and capital efficiencies [9] - The strategy includes further increasing value generation beyond 2025, with a focus on self-help and improving the bank's fundamentals before considering mergers and acquisitions [35][39] - The company aims to maintain a CET1 ratio above 14% to provide flexibility for additional shareholder distributions [29] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management anticipates a reduction in provisioning levels in the second half of the year despite uncertainties in the macroeconomic environment [24] - The company is optimistic about the recovery of debt capital markets and expects a normalization of activity in the second half of the year [58] - Management is focused on risk management actions to minimize exposure in commercial real estate and is actively working on loan modifications and sales [51][63] Other Important Information - The company has completed around 60% of its issuance plan for the year and plans to issue primarily more senior instruments in the second half [25] - The strong capital position and second-quarter performance led to a rating upgrade from Morningstar DBRS and an upgrade of short-term ratings by Fitch [24][32] Q&A Session Summary Question: Thoughts on capital and shareholder distributions - The company intends to repatriate 50% of earnings via dividends and share buybacks, maintaining a CET1 ratio at the low end of the target range [29] Question: Expectations on ratings and future upgrades - Management is confident that continued delivery of targets will result in further positive rating revisions over time [32] Question: Involvement in M&A over the next eighteen months - The company remains focused on self-help and improving its fundamentals before considering any M&A activity [35][39] Question: Current status of U.S. commercial real estate (CRE) provisions - The cumulative credit loss allowance against the stress test outcome is EUR 700 million, with ongoing efforts to manage and stabilize the portfolio [49][51] Question: Need for new AT1 issuance to call upcoming AT1 securities - The company is assessing the need for new AT1 issuance to call the upcoming AT1 securities, with no decision made yet [48] Question: Investment banking pipeline and market conditions - The investment banking pipeline is strong, but there have been delays in transactions due to market stability concerns [56][58]