Core Viewpoint - First Pacific Company Limited is focused on defensive businesses in Southeast Asia and is set to present at the dbVIC - Deutsche Bank ADR Virtual Investor Conference on May 15, 2025, to engage with investors [1][2]. Company Overview - First Pacific is a Hong Kong-based investment holding company with operations in consumer food products, telecommunications, infrastructure, and mining [6]. - The company is listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and offers shares in the U.S. through American Depositary Receipts (ADR) [6]. Financial Performance - The company has experienced six consecutive years of profit growth, with the last four years achieving record highs [3]. - First Pacific's share price increased by 25% in 2023 and 45% in 2024, with a recurring price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 3.6x for FY 2024 [5]. Strategic Focus - First Pacific's strategy emphasizes maximizing shareholder returns through investments in defensive industries that are not significantly affected by changes in foreign trade tariffs [3]. - The company maintains a focus on emerging economies in Southeast Asia and holds majority stakes in its investments to ensure control over cash flows [8]. Key Assets - First Pacific's portfolio includes major companies such as Indofood (largest maker of instant noodles), MPTC (largest privately owned toll road operator), Meralco (largest power company), PLDT (largest telecommunications company), and Maynilad (largest water company) in the Philippines [4]. - The company is also the largest shareholder in Philex Mining, which plans to open a second gold and copper mine in 2026 [4]. Financial Health - First Pacific has low borrowings with an interest coverage ratio of 4x and has maintained investment-grade credit ratings from Moody's and S&P Global for three years [5].

Core Viewpoint - Large institutional investors, including pension funds, are significantly reducing their exposure to U.S. dollar assets and reallocating towards European markets, driven by factors such as unpredictable Trump policies and ongoing tariff conflicts [1][2]. Group 1: Institutional Investor Behavior - Investors are experiencing a historic reduction in U.S. stock allocations, with the largest outflow of funds to Europe since 1999, as reported by Bank of America [1]. - European ETFs saw a record outflow of €2.5 billion in April, marking the highest since the beginning of 2023 [1]. - The Finnish Veritas pension fund and Danish pension funds have both reduced their U.S. stock exposure, with the latter increasing European stock investments to the highest level since 2018 [2]. Group 2: Currency and Asset Trends - There is a notable shift towards non-dollar safe-haven assets, with the euro and German bonds rising sharply, indicating a departure from traditional investment patterns [2]. - Institutional investors are actively selling dollars to buy euros, as observed by Bank of America and Deutsche Bank [2]. - The potential for a structural impact on the U.S. dollar and U.S. debt markets is highlighted, as capital flows reverse from the U.S. to other markets [3]. Group 3: Market Valuation Concerns - Concerns over high valuations in the U.S. stock market are prompting investors to question the rationale behind maintaining such premium prices, as noted by the CIO of Veritas [2]. - The California Teachers' Retirement Fund is reassessing its positions, warning of risks associated with tariff policies that could lead to significant sell-offs of U.S. debt by major trading partners [3].

Market Overview - The S&P 500 index experienced significant volatility, starting the year strong before dropping nearly 20% due to tariff concerns, but has since recovered most losses after a 90-day tariff pause was announced [1][2] Barclays - Barclays shares have risen nearly 23% this year and 54% over the past year, despite European banks facing challenges such as low interest rates and weak GDP growth [3][5] - The bank generated a 14% return on tangible equity (ROTE) in Q1 2025, up from 12.3% a year prior, attributed to strong performance in investment banking and wealth management [5][6] - Management anticipates an 11% ROTE in 2025, with capital levels elevated for potential share repurchases and a current dividend yield of approximately 2.7% [7] Deutsche Bank - Deutsche Bank shares have increased by 56% this year, overcoming economic challenges and regulatory issues related to anti-money-laundering infractions [9][10] - The bank has made financial progress, achieving an 11.9% ROTE in Q1 2025, up from 7.4% in Q1 2024, with a compound annual revenue growth rate of 6.1% since 2021 [11] - Management plans to spend €750 million ($842 million) on share repurchases, contributing to a total distribution of €2.1 billion in the quarter, with expectations to exceed an annual €8 billion distribution target [13]

Group 1 - The article discusses the impact of Trump's "reciprocal tariffs" on global markets and the responses from countries like Europe, Canada, and Japan [1] - It highlights the need for better understanding of U.S. policies from a global perspective, emphasizing the cultural and political differences that create an "information gap" [1] - The introduction of the "New York Talk" series aims to bridge this gap by providing insights into the financial world through expert analysis [1] Group 2 - Guo Shengbei, the founder of GSB Award Fund, has a background in computer science and has transitioned from a technical role to a prominent figure in finance [2][3] - His career began at Morgan Stanley in Tokyo during the early 1990s, where he capitalized on the market's volatility and gained significant experience [4][5] - Guo's tenure at Deutsche Bank from 1997 to 2009 was marked by consistent profitability and successful navigation through major financial crises [8][9] Group 3 - In 2010, Guo established his own hedge fund, focusing on quantitative trading strategies, which required him to adapt from a specialist to a more versatile role [10][11] - His insights into the Chinese market led to recognition from major institutions, resulting in leadership roles at Citic Securities and other firms [11][12] - Guo's return to New York in 2022 marks a new chapter in his career, as he aims to leverage his extensive experience in the hedge fund industry [13] Group 4 - The "New York Talk" series has received positive feedback for its unique teaching style and rigorous logical reasoning, fostering discussions among investors [25] - Guo's predictions regarding market trends, such as the impact of currency swaps on liquidity and the implications of Trump's tariffs, demonstrate his analytical prowess [18][22] - The upcoming second season of "New York Talk" will continue to provide insights into the U.S. economy and Wall Street trading logic [25]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that despite the volatility in the US stock market in early April, Deutsche Bank's research suggests that many market movements may have been overreacted and are likely to mean revert [1] - Deutsche Bank's May report indicates that the panic regarding the dollar, US consumer data, and overall confidence in US assets may have been excessive, making valuations in certain sectors attractive [1][2] - The current market conditions reflect emotional swings, transitioning from extreme optimism post-2024 US elections to current pessimism, with many growth and policy expectations having completed a full cycle [1] Group 2 - Concerns regarding the decline of the dollar and US consumer stocks have been overstated, as the dollar index has experienced 11 corrections of over 10% since 1990, with a 10% drop so far in 2025 [2] - US consumer stocks have significantly dropped since April 2 due to tariff concerns and worries about US demand, with median declines in US consumer stocks being notably higher than their European counterparts [4] - Despite a low US consumer confidence index, retail sales in the US remain strong, growing above trend levels [6] Group 3 - From a relative valuation perspective, certain cyclical US consumer companies, including apparel and essentials, may begin to show investment appeal, as the valuation premium of the US compared to Europe has significantly decreased in some sectors [8] - During the sell-off in early April, no asset truly acted as a "safe haven," including US 10-year Treasury bonds, which behaved more like bonds from struggling emerging markets [9] - The US credit default swap (CDS) spreads increased by 15 basis points last month, reaching the highest level since concerns over the debt ceiling and Moody's downgrade, now close to levels seen in Greece and Italy [11]

Core Viewpoint - Momentum investing focuses on following a stock's recent price trends, aiming to buy high and sell even higher, with the expectation that established trends will continue [1][2]. Company Overview: Deutsche Bank (DB) - Deutsche Bank currently holds a Momentum Style Score of B and a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy), indicating strong potential for outperformance [3][4]. - Over the past week, DB shares have increased by 9.46%, outperforming the Zacks Banks - Foreign industry, which rose by 3.61% [6]. - In a longer timeframe, DB's monthly price change is 15.39%, significantly higher than the industry's 5.15% [6]. - Over the past quarter, DB shares have risen by 36.01%, and over the last year, they have increased by 63.06%, while the S&P 500 has moved -6.91% and 13.12%, respectively [7]. Trading Volume - DB's average 20-day trading volume is 4,646,609 shares, which serves as a bullish indicator when combined with rising stock prices [8]. Earnings Outlook - In the past two months, one earnings estimate for DB has increased, while none have decreased, raising the consensus estimate from $2.93 to $3.20 [10]. - For the next fiscal year, one estimate has also moved upwards with no downward revisions during the same period [10]. Conclusion - Considering the positive momentum indicators and earnings outlook, Deutsche Bank is positioned as a strong buy candidate with a Momentum Score of B [12].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the expectations of various institutions regarding the upcoming release of the US ADP employment figures for April, with a previous value of +155,000 jobs [1] Summary by Institutions - **Nikko Securities**: +65,000 jobs [1] - **Mizuho Securities**: +85,000 jobs [1] - **Sparta Capital**: +90,000 jobs [1] - **ING**: +100,000 jobs [1] - **Montreal**: +110,000 jobs [1] - **Goldman Sachs**: +110,000 jobs [1] - **Stifel**: +120,000 jobs [1] - **Rabobank**: +124,000 jobs [1] - **Lloyds Bank**: +130,000 jobs [1] - **Scotiabank**: +145,000 jobs [1] - **Deutsche Bank**: +150,000 jobs [1] - **Reuters Survey**: +115,000 jobs [1]

Core Viewpoint - Foreign investors continue to sell off U.S. assets, with a significant decline in purchases over the past two months due to U.S. tariff policies, despite a recent market recovery [2][4]. Group 1: Foreign Investment Trends - Deutsche Bank reports a sharp halt in overseas purchases of U.S. assets, indicating that foreign investors are still reluctant to buy despite a recent uptick in the U.S. market [2]. - The bank's analysis suggests that capital inflows into the U.S. may slow down significantly, raising concerns about the dollar's status as a global reserve currency [2][4]. - Data from Deutsche Bank shows that foreign investors have been consistently selling U.S. stocks and bonds, with stock sell-offs peaking during the announcement of "reciprocal tariffs" [4]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Predictions - A survey by JPMorgan indicates that U.S. stocks are expected to experience the most significant capital outflows this year, with cash being the most favored asset class among investors [5]. - Multiple institutions express a cautious outlook on U.S. stocks, favoring European and Chinese markets instead, citing high valuations in the U.S. [6][7]. - HSBC and Allianz highlight a tactical preference for non-U.S. markets, with a focus on sectors like communications, industrials, finance, and healthcare [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank's latest report highlights concerning trends in U.S. capital flows, indicating that foreign investors are "refusing to buy" U.S. assets despite a recent market recovery [1] Group 1: Capital Flow Trends - The report notes a significant sell-off in ETFs, with investors consistently selling stocks and bonds [1] - Data from EPFR corroborates Deutsche Bank's findings, showing a sudden halt in buying of U.S. equities and an intensified sell-off of U.S. Treasuries [1] Group 2: Investment Strategy Recommendations - Michael Hartnett, Chief Investment Strategist at Bank of America, advises investors to sell during rebounds in U.S. stocks and the dollar until uncertainty is resolved [1] - Bank of America's report indicates that the dollar is in a long-term depreciation trend, and the outflow from U.S. assets is expected to continue [1]

外资，继续"抛弃"美国资产！ 德意志银行最新报告指出，最近的美国资本流动数据令人担忧。该行称，尽管过去一周美国市场有所复苏，但 外国投资者仍在"拒绝买入"美国资产。报告称，持续的抛售在ETF数据中表现得最为明显，投资者一直在卖出 股票和债券。 另外，在接下来的几个交易日，美国将有多项重要数据将公布，Comerica Bank首席经济学家Bill Adams预计， 本周的美国经济数据将低于预期，并且会受到企业和消费者对经济发展轨迹的担忧的影响。 当前，华尔街正在为一周的关键财报和经济数据做准备，美国的关税政策以及上市公司是否受到或免受其影 响，是投资者的首要考虑因素。 美国资产继续拉响"警报" 外资对美国资产的抛售仍在持续。德意志银行本周一发布的报告称，受美国关税政策的影响，在过去两个月 里，海外买家对美国资产的购买"急剧停滞"，即使是上周美国市场有所回升，外资也没有出现逆转的迹象。 德意志银行外汇研究主管George Saravelos认为，最近的美国资本流动数据令人担忧。该行指出："我们从整体 数据得出的结论是，迄今为止的资金流动迹象表明，往好了说，美国资本流入将非常迅速地放缓，往坏了说， 投资者持续积极抛 ...