Core Viewpoint - The potential implementation of auto tariffs between the US and Canada poses significant risks to the auto industry, with analysts expressing skepticism about the sustainability of high tariffs [1][4]. Industry Overview - The US is a net exporter of manufacturing goods to Canada, especially in the auto sector, with Canada supplying 8-9% and Mexico 20% of US vehicle consumption [2]. - The US accounts for 95.3% of Canada's auto exports and 57.7% of its imports, while Mexico represents 2.5% of exports and 14.5% of imports [3]. Tariff Scenarios - UBS analysts outline five potential scenarios regarding the impact of a 25% tariff on auto imports from Canada and Mexico, with varying effects on manufacturers and suppliers [5]. - The worst-case scenario, a full 25% tariff without exemptions, could severely impact major automakers like General Motors and Ford, potentially wiping out their earnings [6]. - A more likely scenario suggests that companies could offset 50% of the tariff impact through price increases, leading to a 15% hit to suppliers' EBIT and a 56% decline for Ford and GM [7]. Cost Distribution - Suppliers believe they can pass costs onto automakers, raising prices more quickly than during the pandemic supply chain issues [9]. - Automakers will face pressure to determine how much of the cost can be transferred to consumers without harming demand, especially in the current economic climate of high interest rates and low consumer confidence [10]. Valuation Insights - Despite the uncertainty surrounding tariffs, auto stocks may already reflect much of the potential downside, with companies trading near historical valuation lows [11]. - UBS identifies BorgWarner, Aptiv, and Visteon as relatively inexpensive compared to historical averages, while Ford, Lear, and Magna appear more expensive, with GM favored over Ford [12]. Market Sentiment - The looming tariff decision adds complexity to the auto sector, with UBS suggesting that long-term 25% tariffs are unlikely, but even temporary tariffs could disrupt production and pricing strategies [13]. - Investors are left to consider whether current valuations account for the worst-case scenario or if further volatility is expected [14].

Group 1 - Senate Majority Leader John Thune has set an April 11 deadline for a final agreement on a budget resolution that will support President Trump's tax-cut bill [1] - Senate Finance Committee Chair Mike Crapo is actively working on the tax-cut bill, with efforts to translate budget savings into rescission packages to undo spending [2] - The House has significant challenges, including a budget resolution that does not make the Trump tax cuts permanent [3][4] Group 2 - The House budget resolution lacks Senator Crapo's current policy baseline, which is essential for making tax cuts permanent on a deficit-neutral basis [4] - There is a concern that some House Republicans are reverting to a pre-Reagan approach of waiting to cut the deficit before implementing tax cuts [5] - Delivering Trump Tax Cuts 2.0 is complicated by the current policy baseline only applying to Trump Tax Cuts 1.0 [5] Group 3 - President Trump's proposed policies, including tax-free tips and a corporate tax cut, do not currently fall under the existing rules, complicating their implementation [6] - Both Republican houses are still far from achieving a tax-cut driven economic boom, but there is optimism that Trump will finalize the deal [7]

Core Viewpoint - Ford Motor Company is under investigation by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) regarding nearly 1.3 million F-150 pickup trucks due to reports of sudden gear downshifts that can temporarily lock the rear wheels [1]. Investigation Details - The investigation targets 2015-2017 F-150 models after NHTSA received 138 consumer complaints about unexpected downshifts while driving at highway speeds [2]. - A Ford spokesperson stated that the company is cooperating with NHTSA, which is conducting a preliminary evaluation to determine if an engineering analysis is necessary before a potential recall [3]. Consumer Complaints - A complaint from 2023 described a 2016 F-150 suddenly shifting from sixth to first gear at 70 mph, nearly causing an accident [4]. - Many owners reported long wait times for replacement parts, and some complaints indicated that rear wheels could temporarily lock, increasing the risk of a crash [4]. Previous Recalls - This investigation follows a series of probes into unexpected downshifting in F-150 trucks, including a June recall of 668,000 2014 F-150 models for similar issues [5]. - Ford has previously recalled multiple F-150 model years for this problem, including 153,000 trucks from 2011-2012 in 2016 and 1.48 million F-150s from the 2013 model year in 2019 [6]. Financial Implications - In November, Ford agreed to pay a $165 million civil penalty after NHTSA found that the automaker failed to recall vehicles with faulty rearview cameras in a timely manner [6].

Group 1 - The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) has initiated an investigation into approximately 1.3 million Ford F-150 pickup trucks due to a faulty gear shift that may lead to wheel lock-up [1][3] - The investigation was prompted by over 130 consumer complaints regarding unrequested gear downshifts while driving at highway speeds, causing rapid deceleration [2][5] - Complaints indicate that the trucks' rear wheels may temporarily lock, seize, or skid following the unexpected gear shift, which poses a risk of losing vehicle control [2][4] Group 2 - Ford is cooperating with the NHTSA in its investigation, although no crashes or fires related to the faulty gear shift have been reported so far [4]

Core Viewpoint - The S&P 500 has experienced a recent dip, but its trailing-12-month total return remains positive at 12.4%. In contrast, Ford Motor Company's stock has declined significantly, losing 11.5% over the past year, despite a high dividend yield of 6.03% [1][3][12]. Group 1: Investment Potential - Ford is a consistently profitable company, allocating excess earnings towards dividends, with $3.1 billion paid in dividends in 2024 [3]. - The stock's price-to-earnings ratio is 6.8, approximately 30% lower than its trailing-three-year average, indicating potential upside if market sentiment improves [6]. - Ford's commercial vehicle segment, Pro, has shown strong performance, with a 15% revenue growth in 2024 and a solid 13.5% operating margin [5]. Group 2: Growth Challenges - The global auto industry is mature, with only a 2.5% increase in unit sales in 2024 compared to 2023, leading to limited growth prospects for Ford [7]. - Ford's revenue growth has been modest, increasing by 28% from 2014 to 2024, with a projected compound annual growth rate of only 0.3% over the next three years [8]. - The company is capital-intensive, spending $158 billion on cost of sales in 2024, which includes materials and labor, alongside high warranty costs [9]. Group 3: Profitability Concerns - Ford's operating margin and return on invested capital have averaged only 2% and 2.3% over the past decade, with no expected improvement due to the competitive and cyclical nature of the auto industry [10]. - The combination of low growth and high capital expenditure creates significant headwinds for Ford in establishing a durable economic moat [10].

Group 1: Partnership Overview - Ford has renewed its partnership with Churchill Downs Racetrack as the exclusive automotive partner of the Kentucky Derby, extending the relationship through 2029 [2][3] - The agreement includes the naming rights for the First Turn Club, enhancing Ford's visibility and engagement during Derby Week [2][3] Group 2: Brand Activation and Experience - Ford will implement interactive vehicle displays and exclusive luxury vehicle showcases at key locations around the racetrack, including the Paddock Plaza and VIP Gate [2][3] - The Ford First Turn Club will provide guests with a premium race-day experience featuring upscale amenities and prime views of the racetrack [2][3] Group 3: Community and Corporate Commitment - Ford emphasizes its commitment to the Louisville community, where its manufacturing facilities employ approximately 12,000 people [4] - The partnership aligns with Ford's mission to create positive impacts in the communities it serves, reflecting a shared commitment to excellence and innovation with Churchill Downs [4] Group 4: Event Significance - The Kentucky Derby, with a purse of $5 million, is the longest continually held major sporting event in the U.S. and is scheduled for May 3, 2025 [5]

Company Performance - Ford Motor Company closed at $9.95, reflecting a +0.3% change from the previous day, outperforming the S&P 500's daily loss of 1.07% [1] - Over the past month, Ford's shares gained 4.64%, contrasting with the Auto-Tires-Trucks sector's loss of 19.73% and the S&P 500's loss of 7.03% [1] Earnings Projections - The upcoming earnings report projects earnings per share (EPS) of $0.05, indicating an 89.8% decrease from the same quarter last year [2] - Revenue is expected to be $35.51 billion, reflecting a 10.99% decline compared to the year-ago quarter [2] - For the full year, analysts expect earnings of $1.43 per share and revenue of $166.15 billion, marking changes of -22.28% and -3.78% respectively from last year [3] Analyst Estimates - Recent changes in analyst estimates suggest a favorable outlook on Ford's business health and profitability [4] - The Zacks Rank system currently rates Ford at 3 (Hold), with a recent downward shift of 2.26% in the consensus EPS estimate [6] Valuation Metrics - Ford has a Forward P/E ratio of 6.93, indicating a discount compared to its industry's Forward P/E of 10.95 [7] - The company boasts a PEG ratio of 0.66, lower than the average PEG ratio of 0.81 for the Automotive - Domestic industry [8] Industry Context - The Automotive - Domestic industry is part of the Auto-Tires-Trucks sector and holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 149, placing it within the bottom 41% of over 250 industries [9]

Few companies are as well known as the Ford Motor Company or Ford (NYSE: F ). In summary, however, Ford is one of the largest global automotive businesses that "develops and delivers innovative—trucks, sport utility vehicles, commercial vans and cars, and Lincoln luxuryI am an Asia based long-term dividend investor. I am CPA and Chartered Management Accountant (ACMA, CGMA). My goal for investing is to create a steady and growing stream of dividends to achieve financial freedom and augment my eventual retire ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Trump views tariffs not merely as negotiation tools but as a fundamental solution to America's economic issues, which raises concerns about his governance style and future economic direction [1][2][3] - Trump's communication with major U.S. automakers indicates that tariffs are a definitive goal rather than a bargaining chip, surprising many in the business community who expected a more traditional approach to trade negotiations [2][3] - The article highlights a significant shift in the business environment, as executives are now reassessing their optimistic assumptions about "Trump 2.0" and adapting to a new trade policy landscape [3] Group 2 - The stock market, previously seen as a barometer for Trump's policies, has shown a decline since the introduction of new tariff measures, indicating that market performance may no longer influence his stance [4][6] - Since the start of Trump's new administration, over $1 trillion worth of goods have been subjected to tariff measures, contrasting with the $300 billion in tariffs during his first term [7] - Trump's current administration is characterized by a more unified team that shares his economic views, leading to a more consistent execution of policies compared to his first term [8][10]

Core Viewpoint - Ford is officially discontinuing the Focus model in November 2025, marking the end of a classic vehicle that has been a significant part of its lineup, particularly in the Chinese market [1][3][23]. Summary by Sections Discontinuation Announcement - Ford announced the discontinuation of the Focus model, with no replacement planned, highlighting a shift in focus towards electric vehicles and performance models like Bronco and Mustang [1][4]. Market Performance - The Focus's sales in China have drastically declined, with monthly sales dropping to single digits in 2023, indicating a significant loss of market relevance [3][21]. Historical Significance - The Focus was initially designed for the European market, gaining popularity for its sporty characteristics and handling, which resonated well with consumers [6][9][11]. Evolution of the Model - The Focus underwent several generations, with the third generation being particularly successful, achieving monthly sales of 30,000 units and becoming the best-selling sedan in China for three consecutive years [16][21]. Decline Factors - The introduction of a three-cylinder engine and a problematic dual-clutch transmission in later models led to consumer dissatisfaction and a decline in sales, with annual sales dropping from 400,000 units to just 22,500 by 2021 [17][20][21]. Shift in Company Strategy - Ford's strategic pivot towards electric vehicles and high-end off-road models reflects a broader industry trend, as traditional fuel-powered sedans struggle to compete in a rapidly changing market [22][23].